Chad Forbes info on possible Bills trade up.

[JohnC]

56 minutes ago, Blokestradamus said:

 

I had no idea what that reference meant. Turns out he looks almost exactly like I imagined a Chad to look like

You can be righteously  condemned for stereotyping.

[Blokestradamus]

3 minutes ago, JohnC said:

You can be righteously  condemned for stereotyping.

 

My name is Stephen and I'm a rampant Chaddist.

[DCOrange]

28 minutes ago, Chuck Wagon said:

 

 

I would give them one of the picks in the 53 - 65 range and probably want pick 102 or 144 back.

 

The Bucs are willing to move from 7 to 12 because they know they are going to get the same caliber player at 12 as 7 and they are a team that strictly drafts BPA.  I wouldn't give any sort of premium for that pick.

 

#7 / #144 for #12 / #56 is about dead equal on the value chart.

 

I'm guessing it's either 7 for 12/56 or possible more because this trade probably only happens under two scenarios:

1. Saquon and Nelson are both gone, which probably means one of the top QBs is sitting there and Buffalo pays a premium to move up for them

2. The Bills move up to 7 before the draft begins so that they can jump up one more time, in which case Buffalo pays a premium to convince Tampa to not bother sitting there to see if Saquon/Nelson are available.

[Bill Murray]

21 minutes ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

Yeah.

Then you have to add up everything you gave up to get each pick, for example.

 

-#21 + cordy +5th (#158) was that #12 cost (we also got a 6th #187. Should keep that number it's MURDER ?)

 

So if we trade to #7 by giving (just saying):

#12 and #22 , at minimum that means we actually gave up #21, #22, #158 and cordy Glenn for the #7 pick.

 

Again I'm not saying that is what it would cost to go to #7 I'm just saying that's how you have to look at it

 

 

Just because one team overpaid doesn't mean we have to

 

 

Yeah I don't think it would cost a ton, but see my response above at the total cost.

 

Right I agree.

But Cleveland could go Barkley #1 leaving Darnold #2 to NYG, then Jets have Mayfield/Allen/Rosen choice at #3, leaving browns with the remaining 2 to choose from

 

VERY interesting game theory if you are the Browns.  If you are OK with any of the top 3 QBs on your board (presumably Darnold,  Rosen, and Allen), then you are supposed to take Saquan Barkley #1.

 

If Barkley went #1 overall i think everyone would be shocked and phone lines across war rooms would be going nuts...

 

Any possible chance Barkley geos #1 and then Chubb goes #2 to the Giants?  that would be insanity...

Edited April 3, 2018 by Bill Murray

[xRUSHx]

33 minutes ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

 

Right I agree.

But Cleveland could go Barkley #1 leaving Darnold #2 to NYG, then Jets have Mayfield/Allen/Rosen choice at #3, leaving browns with the remaining 2 to choose from

Smartest thing to do in my opinion for Cleveland. Take Barkley at 1 and cash in on on one of the QBs left at 4, Cleveland is set up perfectly to even take the QB they want at 1 and then take Chubb at 4 if Giants take Barkley, it's a win win for them to not move at all IMO. Even if Giants trade to Bills Cleveland will still have some sweet choices at 1 and 4. IMO top 4 will not move at all unless Cleveland takes QB and Giants /Jets go Barkley/Chubb to force Cleveland to move out of 4. I think a QB run will happen in the first 5 picks with Barkley being the only non QB taken.

If Buffalo trades to 2 then 4 QBs in the top 5 easily IMO.

 

Maybe we should package a deal with Cleveland for #1 that included McCoy that way Cleveland still will land a top RB(a probowler), top QB and a boat load of picks to move around with to fill the rest of the team with. I do not think Cleveland is smart enough for that so I see Barkley and Allen.

Edited April 3, 2018 by xRUSHx

[JohnC]

12 minutes ago, Blokestradamus said:

 

My name is Stephen and I'm a rampant Chaddist.

Rumor has it that your went to Eton and that your real name is Chadworth. Because you are a fine fellow and I don't want you to be  scorned because you have an aristocratic background that the proletarians resent I'll just call you Bloke. In that way maybe you can fool the commoners into believing that you are a down to earth guy. In order to make this charade work you have to give up your pipe and bloody cardigan sweater.   

[BuffaninATL]

1 hour ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

Chad from "mad real world" was a cool dude.

 

that was in the top 5 Chappelle episodes without a doubt

[TigerJ]

1 hour ago, PIZ said:

Not sure if this guy is legit.

 

 

The only thing I haven't seen before is the last bit about discussions between the Bills and Bucs.  The fact that another guy is reporting this rumor either means he's passing around old stuff, or it is coming from multiple sources, which makes it more likely.  In other words, more smoke means a greater likelihood of a fire.

[artmalibu]

Going from 12 to 7 doesn't do much.  Only the Phins would possibly take a QB.  Unless its fear of someone else trading up in.

 

[xRUSHx]

1 hour ago, MAJBobby said:

 

So everything that has been discussed for past two months in one tweet. Ground Breaking 

Sadly it is showing they failed bad by letting the Jets get in under there cheap nose. IMO the other teams in the top 5 are saying either spend big or go home empty handed. IMO the OBD PR machine  will be singing hard saying they tried but couldn't move up when IMO the truth is OBD went in trying to make a cheap Ralph Wilson trade and ended up the way OBD always ends up, on the outside looking in. Sadly IMO if a QB doesn't fall to us at 12 (if thats what they are thinking they already failed)we will not have one till round 2 or 3 and that will give this staff nothing but backup QBs the next 2 years. 2020 will be interesting on who OBD will be looking to come in to clean up McMess.

Edited April 3, 2018 by xRUSHx

[BuffaloHokie13]

1 minute ago, artmalibu said:

Going from 12 to 7 doesn't do much.  Only the Phins would possibly take a QB.  Unless its fear of someone else trading up in.

Going from 12 to 7 means Giants only drop 5 slots instead of 10, which may make them more amicable to making the deal. It can be done with a similar haul to what has been rumored as our offer to the Giants in the first place.

 

Trade 12, 53, and a 2019 4th for #7 (that's a 9.6% premium on their pick, in line with past trades).

 

Trade 7, 22, 96, and a 2019 2nd for #2 (that's a 43.9% premium on their pick, in line with past trades).

 

Bills would pick have a pick in every round in 2018, and have a pick in every round except the 2nd in 2019.

[xRUSHx]

2 hours ago, PIZ said:

Not sure if this guy is legit.

 

 

Take the trade with the Bucs now and if a wait till draft day to move up to 2 happens it will be easier to trade that Buc pick then the 12 pick. If they wait some other team could pull a Jet and take even that option from us long before the draft even happens..

[TheFunPolice]

I just don't see the deal looking even OK for the Bills.

 

IF they trade up it's going to be for an ungodly haul, because of the number of teams who want QBs, the inflated price, and the lack of top prospects next year.

 

If I'm the Giants I'm going to bleed any team dry that wants my pick, friend or not. If I'm Denver I am making all kinds of noise about taking a QB, even if that's not my plan, just to make teams desperate for my pick.

 

Arizona, Miami, Buffalo, NJ, NJ#2, Cleveland, Chargers, maybe even the Ravens could be in on a QB for sure.

[Reed83HOF]

1 hour ago, Chuck Wagon said:

 

 

I see both side of the coin.

 

The thing I worry about, and I think it's what Beane worries about, is with a gradual climb you chip away at the value bit by bit.  Say we can offer the Giants a 150% premium on the pick currently.  But with the small climb we chip off 10% here and there, suddenly we can only offer the Giants 120%.  Is it better to just offer the full 150% to get where you want to go, or risk chipping away bit by bit in hopes of a more attractive offer?

 

Ultimately I don't buy the Giants - Darnold story.  I think there's certainly a chance if Allen goes #1 then the ability to pick Darnold is worth more, but until they turn the card in with a player (and don't pull an Eli - Rivers) I'm convinced they are going to sit and wait to extract maximum value.

This is where the Beane/Gettlemen relationship comes into play, what picks do you want? Is a boat load of picks enough where we are or do you want 4-6 + xy while knowing that z and aa were traded to get you up to 4-6? Granted we could just give them a boat load of picks and let them go where they want, but that is more work for the NYG and the price of moving up should be you do the dirty work...

 

I agree with with your thoughts on Darnold...

[artmalibu]

3 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

Going from 12 to 7 means Giants only drop 5 slots instead of 10, which may make them more amicable to making the deal. It can be done with a similar haul to what has been rumored as our offer to the Giants in the first place.

 

Trade 12, 53, and a 2019 4th for #7 (that's a 9.6% premium on their pick, in line with past trades).

 

Trade 7, 22, 96, and a 2019 2nd for #2 (that's a 43.9% premium on their pick, in line with past trades).

 

Bills would pick have a pick in every round in 2018, and have a pick in every round except the 2nd in 2019.

 

2 firsts , 2 seconds and a starting left tackle for the 2nd QB off the board.  Better love a guy and hope the browns dont take him. 

 

I also think NYG will wait to see who who the Browns take before dealing, so that pick may never come avalible

 

[PIZ]

4 minutes ago, xRUSHx said:

Take the trade with the Bucs now and if a wait till draft day to move up to 2 happens it will be easier to trade that Buc pick then the 12 pick. If they wait some other team could pull a Jet and take even that option from us long before the draft even happens..

 

I'm guessing that the trade parameter with Tampa Bay are already set.  Once Cleveland makes their selection, Buffalo will move up to #7, then package a deal to the NYG for the #2.  Would it be a shock if Buffalo trades up to #2 for Mayfield?

[BobChalmers]

2 hours ago, Boatdrinks said:

3 2nds was the price paid by NYJ to move just 3 spots. 

 

And that price was obscene.  Jets got robbed, AND they will screw up the pick.  

32 minutes ago, PIZ said:

 

I'm guessing that the trade parameter with Tampa Bay are already set.  Once Cleveland makes their selection, Buffalo will move up to #7, then package a deal to the NYG for the #2.  Would it be a shock if Buffalo trades up to #2 for Mayfield?

 

For Mayfield at 2?  Yeah that would be a shock.  Not that I don't like him.

[Buffalo Bills Detective]

52 minutes ago, xRUSHx said:

Sadly it is showing they failed bad by letting the Jets get in under there cheap nose. IMO the other teams in the top 5 are saying either spend big or go home empty handed. IMO the OBD PR machine  will be singing hard saying they tried but couldn't move up when IMO the truth is OBD went in trying to make a cheap Ralph Wilson trade and ended up the way OBD always ends up, on the outside looking in. Sadly IMO if a QB doesn't fall to us at 12 (if thats what they are thinking they already failed)we will not have one till round 2 or 3 and that will give this staff nothing but backup QBs the next 2 years. 2020 will be interesting on who OBD will be looking to come in to clean up McMess.

Which team will you be following on Sundays going forward?  The Rams?

[Roundybout]

55 minutes ago, xRUSHx said:

Sadly it is showing they failed bad by letting the Jets get in under there cheap nose. IMO the other teams in the top 5 are saying either spend big or go home empty handed. IMO the OBD PR machine  will be singing hard saying they tried but couldn't move up when IMO the truth is OBD went in trying to make a cheap Ralph Wilson trade and ended up the way OBD always ends up, on the outside looking in. Sadly IMO if a QB doesn't fall to us at 12 (if thats what they are thinking they already failed)we will not have one till round 2 or 3 and that will give this staff nothing but backup QBs the next 2 years. 2020 will be interesting on who OBD will be looking to come in to clean up McMess.

 

The Jets overpaid badly, and Beane did not want to show desperation by trading up so early. Other teams waited until a week from the draft and turned out fine (Rams, Eagles, etc) but we have to trade up now? 

 

I think Beane is more calculating than that. 

[xRUSHx]

53 minutes ago, PIZ said:

 

I'm guessing that the trade parameter with Tampa Bay are already set.  Once Cleveland makes their selection, Buffalo will move up to #7, then package a deal to the NYG for the #2.  Would it be a shock if Buffalo trades up to #2 for Mayfield?

I would be shocked if they pull a deal off and get any of the top 3 QBs. IMO the waiting game they are playing is going to bite them like the Jets did.