Why I think the Bills Will Take Rosen at #2 Overall April 26

[BadLandsMeanie]

6 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

Let me go on the record that while I am and still am banging the table for Lamar Jackson I would have NO PROBLEM with the bills going all in on Rosen.....none whatsoever

 

I just dont want those same people that are screaming for him to all of a sudden start crying when its time to pay the piper in draft picks.....he is going to cost.

 

I think Lamar Jackson is going to be a stud QB.....and prob wouldnt have to give up anything but a 1st round pick.

 

but I am good both ways.

I haven't seen Jackson play. So I really have no opinion of my own about him. But what I read is he has accuracy issues and bad form and stuff.

 

I won't complain about the cost of anybody they get so long as they don't turn out to bust for reasons that all the scouting reports knock them for.

 

 

6 hours ago, Augie said:

Church cred, you say???  

 

If they really believe in one guy, I’m fine with going bold and making a move. Sure, we have other holes. You always have needs. But until you have your QB nothing else matters. Did I read we have about $90 mil in cap space next year. Get the right FA’s and do some extra trading back for additional picks, then hope we have better scouts than the other guys. 

 

Swing and miss, and it’s a new FO all over again before too long. 

Yeah Church Cred :>

 

I don't think they should get fired for a miss. I think that is why guys always chicken out. I would give them 2 shots, all other things being equal.

[Logic]

I'm with ya on the trade up to the #2 spot, Meanie.

It's almost too perfect: Team with two 1sts and two 2nds and a huge QB need is helmed by two guys who -- until last season -- worked closely with the GM owning the 2nd overall pick and who needs more draft picks (he only has five currently). 

Heck, even the Colts (helmed by former Buffalo Bill Frank Reich) at 3 and the Browns at 4 (who likely have already taken a QB at spot #1) are logical trade partners.

It's the first full offseason of this new GM/coach pairing, they have the picks, they have the need, it's a great QB draft, there are dance partners at the top.

The stars are aligned. It's going to happen.



 

[BadLandsMeanie]

3 hours ago, NewEraBills said:

Gettleman won't pass on Barkley if he's there at 2.  You might think it's insane but there is a consensus starting to line up that Barkley is the best player in the draft.  Add in the Giants need someone to run the rock.  The other thing counting against all of this is the Broncos.  You have to hope they land a QB in FA because they could be a potential blocker.  They have the #5 pick which could actually keep Gettleman close to his top-ranked prospects.  Plus they can offer their 2nd, two thirds, three 4ths and any future picks.  They can match anything we can provide and the deal would be better for Gettleman if he has highly rated players in mind and still wants them.  

I do think it would be nuts to take Barkley at 2. But what do I know really?  If I was Gettleman all  I would envision is there goes his ACL and then I am hyping everybody to be patient and saying he should be just great in 2 years.

 

Anyway yeah other teams can cut us off as you say. I just hope they dont.

1 minute ago, Logic said:

I'm with ya on the trade up to the #2 spot, Meanie.

It's almost too perfect: Team with two 1sts and two 2nds and a huge QB need is helmed by two guys who -- until last season -- worked closely with the GM owning the 2nd overall pick and who needs more draft picks (he only has five currently). 

Heck, even the Colts (helmed by former Buffalo Bill Frank Reich) at 3 and the Browns at 4 (who likely have already taken a QB at spot #1) are logical trade partners.

It's the first full offseason of this new GM/coach pairing, they have the picks, they have the need, it's a great QB draft, there are dance partners at the top.

The stars are aligned. It's going to happen.



 

Woot woot!!

[Logic]

Just now, BadLandsMeanie said:

I do think it would be nuts to take Barkley at 2. But what do I know really?  If I was Gettleman all  I would envision is there goes his ACL and then I am hyping everybody to be patient and saying he should be just great in 2 years.

 

Anyway yeah other teams can cut us off as you say. I just hope they dont.

The only concerning thing with Barkley is that Gettleman literally said "if you take a player there, you have to believe he's a Hall of Famer". Well...none of us know how Barkley will turn out, but he has the college production, blue chip pedigree, and special traits to be in the discussion. That's the only real obstacle. Gettleman deciding he can't pass on Saquon Barkley.

[BadLandsMeanie]

1 hour ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Thanks for the post BLM.

 

I would seriously be super stoked about the Bills trading up in the draft for a QB.  I'd really much rather trade up for Darnold or Mayfield, but I'd be fine with Rosen.

 

 

I understand why everyone assumes we're trading up for a QB in the draft, but I don't think it happens.  McDermott and Beane seem like long term thinkers... I don't think this is the year they necessarily planned on absolutely getting their Franchise QB.

Aww shucks man. Come on. I sure hope they don't do that. Take a lineman and a cornerback at 21 and 22 and then trot out Tyrod for another go round.

 

That will just be horrible. 

[Iamkrgr]

Moving up for Rosen would be a bold move. Thats a make or break move for an executive AND thats why i like it. 

 

If possible i'd move picks from this draft and look to not move next years 1st. Moving next years 1st rounder is a bit too risky for my liking. This team as currently constructed has a small margin for victory. This past season goes to show how a few fortunate plays can be the difference between making the playoffs and not. The offense(even with Rosen) has holes in it that could prove costly next season. Expecting a rookie QB to come in and lead a flawed offense is a recipe for a rough season. Getting Rosen and having him develop properly might come at the cost of having a worse season than 2017. 

 

I'd move both 1st and 2nd rounders to move up. Next years 1st is off the table imo. BUT i wouldn't be too upset if Beane did include it. 

[GETTOTHE50]

I hope the Bills do move up to get Rosen, it will be disappointing if they don't.

 

This is why they got 2 1st round picks IMO. To trade up.

 

I know they won't overpay for it though.

 

Mcdermott and Beane don't like to get ripped it off.

[BadLandsMeanie]

4 minutes ago, Iamkrgr said:

Moving up for Rosen would be a bold move. Thats a make or break move for an executive AND thats why i like it. 

 

If possible i'd move picks from this draft and look to not move next years 1st. Moving next years 1st rounder is a bit too risky for my liking. This team as currently constructed has a small margin for victory. This past season goes to show how a few fortunate plays can be the difference between making the playoffs and not. The offense(even with Rosen) has holes in it that could prove costly next season. Expecting a rookie QB to come in and lead a flawed offense is a recipe for a rough season. Getting Rosen and having him develop properly might come at the cost of having a worse season than 2017. 

 

I'd move both 1st and 2nd rounders to move up. Next years 1st is off the table imo. BUT i wouldn't be too upset if Beane did include it. 

Yeah I wouldn't like to lose next years first either. But it is going to take alot to get up there.

[Logic]

The other factor is that it seems like McDermott and Beane are not at all afraid to be bold. This can not be overstated.

They walked in and traded away Sammy Watkins, Ronald Darby, Marcell Dareus, and Reggie Regland, and let Gilmore, Gillislee, both safeties, and Zach Brown walk away. That's a CRAZY thing to walk in and do. They didn't care. They did it and they were right to do it. Fast forward to the end of the season: they fired their offensive coordinator despite making the playoffs for the first time in 17 years because they knew they could do better. Bold moves. 

To me, it all adds up to them not being afraid to go bold for a QB. Recent history shows it's often necessary to do so. If McDermott is as good as we think/hope, the Bills won't be picking in the top 5 or 10 picks very often. They're going to have to trade up there eventually. Might as well do it in a year where they have 4 of the first 64 picks!

Edited March 8, 2018 by Logic

[without a drought]

21 & 22 plus next year's first or 21 & 22 plus both 2nd round picks won't get them to #2. It would cost more than that. 

[BadLandsMeanie]

11 minutes ago, Logic said:

The other factor is that it seems like McDermott and Beane are not at all afraid to be bold. This can not be overstated.

They walked in and traded away Sammy Watkins, Ronald Darby, Marcell Dareus, and Reggie Regland, and let Gilmore, Gillislee, both safeties, and Zach Brown walk away. That's a CRAZY thing to walk in and do. They didn't care. They did it and they were right to do it. Fast forward to the end of the season: they fired their offensive coordinator despite making the playoffs for the first time in 17 years because they knew they could do better. Bold moves. 

To me, it all adds up to them not being afraid to go bold for a QB. Recent history shows it's often necessary to do so. If McDermott is as good as we think/hope, the Bills won't be picking in the top 5 or 10 picks very often. They're going to have to trade up there eventually. Might as well do it in a year where they have 4 of the first 64 picks!

That is an extremely good point and heartening too!

[transplantbillsfan]

1 hour ago, BadLandsMeanie said:

Aww shucks man. Come on. I sure hope they don't do that. Take a lineman and a cornerback at 21 and 22 and then trot out Tyrod for another go round.

 

That will just be horrible. 

 

Look, I'm not advocating that as an option number one, but I definitely think it's something they are considering doing very strongly.

 

I really think they like Taylor a lot more than fans and the media believe they do. And they will bank on the uproar over not replacing him (whether warranted or not) dying down in the months to follow the draft, which it largely will especially if the team has seriously upgraded other positions with young players.

 

I want Mayfield.

 

I want Darnold.

 

I guess I'll be excited about Rosen, though I don't like his injury history or his demeanor.

 

We draft those 3 guys, it's because we moved up in the draft and trade Tyrod probably.

 

Super stoked and I'm good with that

 

I just don't think it's all that likely. Have you really examined the age of this team? We're running into trouble in the next few years. So at best, I think we take Jackson or Rudolph at #21 and load up on all our other positions after that. 

 

And I really don't think that Beane is seriously in the Foles or Cousins sweepstakes. So, while I understand your feelings... you might need to brace for one more year of Tyrod Taylor.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, BadLandsMeanie said:

Aww shucks man. Come on. I sure hope they don't do that. Take a lineman and a cornerback at 21 and 22 and then trot out Tyrod for another go round.

That will just be horrible. 

 

They have to do something to be taken seriously as a change in culture, but in my mathy and messy post you disliked, I point out a key fact: QB are not drafted in the order of their eventual quality.  So as long as they do draft a QB in the top rounds (5th is too late), it is possible that they perceive that guy as a better long-term choice. 

 

To recap my main point of that post:

1) the odds of getting a good QB are highest in the first 2 picks of the draft

2) there are still good QB to be had after that - but the odds are very much against them falling in the order drafted.  It may not be a mistake to take the #3 or even #4 QB in the draft - but you better do it based upon a careful evaluation of his talent, not because "gotta getta QB and the 1st round is where it's at!" 

That's how you draft JP Losman when just maybe you'd have been better off drafting Steve Jackson and picking up Matt Schaub in the 3rd. 

 

At least, in between gnashing my teeth, chewing on my swagger stick, and raising my fists to rail at the heavens, I'll attempt to console myself with that info.

Edited March 8, 2018 by Hapless Bills Fan

[BadLandsMeanie]

8 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

They have to do something to be taken seriously as a change in culture, but in my mathy and messy post you disliked, I point out a key fact: QB are not drafted in the order of their eventual quality.  So as long as they do draft a QB in the top rounds (5th is too late), it is possible that they perceive that guy as a better long-term choice.

 

At least, in between gnashing my teeth, chewing on my swagger stick, and raising my fists to rail at the heavens, I'll attempt to console myself with that info.

Hey I'm not all that curmudgeonly.

If they draft a guy at 21 who turns out to be good that will be fine with me.

And that QBs do not turn out to develop according to their draft  ranking just shows that teams make mistakes. They are unable to accurately predict who will turn out good. So maybe everybody else will miss and the Bills will have a really good one drop to them.

 

But everybody else who wants a QB has to miss for that to happen. Not good odds but it can happen. We will see.

 

Also I will make a new post someday soon that questions how much a late draft pick is predetermined to be bad, among other things.

So I am not against later draft picks for QBs. I just don't like them when I am not running the team because of the stupid things they do he says arrogantly.

 

 

 

 

 

36 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Look, I'm not advocating that as an option number one, but I definitely think it's something they are considering doing very strongly.

 

I really think they like Taylor a lot more than fans and the media believe they do. And they will bank on the uproar over not replacing him (whether warranted or not) dying down in the months to follow the draft, which it largely will especially if the team has seriously upgraded other positions with young players.

 

I want Mayfield.

 

I want Darnold.

 

I guess I'll be excited about Rosen, though I don't like his injury history or his demeanor.

 

We draft those 3 guys, it's because we moved up in the draft and trade Tyrod probably.

 

Super stoked and I'm good with that

 

I just don't think it's all that likely. Have you really examined the age of this team? We're running into trouble in the next few years. So at best, I think we take Jackson or Rudolph at #21 and load up on all our other positions after that. 

 

And I really don't think that Beane is seriously in the Foles or Cousins sweepstakes. So, while I understand your feelings... you might need to brace for one more year of Tyrod Taylor.

I just hope to God you are wrong because I just don't want to watch another year of treading water with Tyrod. Oh well we will find out.

 

I don't know much at all about the QBs really from my own perspective. I don't watch college football hardly at all. 

 

Mainly what I know about this years crop is they all have had years to learn the best methods and footwork and mechanics, one one of them did. 

And that one is Rosen. Everybody else hasn't gotten around to finishing up doing that yet. Excuses aside here is something that needs to be done. He did it. They didn't.

 

That doesn't mean he is the best of them but it does say something at least to me.

 

But if somebody else is  actually better, I am AOK with that.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[hemma]

Lots of bullets. 

Time to use them.

[transplantbillsfan]

1 hour ago, BadLandsMeanie said:

I just hope to God you are wrong because I just don't want to watch another year of treading water with Tyrod. Oh well we will find out.

 

I don't know much at all about the QBs really from my own perspective. I don't watch college football hardly at all. 

 

Mainly what I know about this years crop is they all have had years to learn the best methods and footwork and mechanics, one one of them did. 

And that one is Rosen. Everybody else hasn't gotten around to finishing up doing that yet. Excuses aside here is something that needs to be done. He did it. They didn't.

 

That doesn't mean he is the best of them but it does say something at least to me.

 

But if somebody else is  actually better, I am AOK with that.

 

So interesting... in a way, I completely understand what you're saying here. We haven't had a franchise quarterback and an obvious one since what 1996 with Jim Kelly? We're desperate for one; we're starved for one; we obviously need one. No one would deny that.

 

And yet, we just made the playoffs for the first time in 17 freaking years! And yes, Taylor was a big contributor to making the playoffs. Deny that as one may, he was. Maybe he wasn't as big a contributor as other team's quarterbacks who made the playoffs, but a team's quarterback will almost naturally be the biggest contributor individually on that team and so it's illogical and unreasonable to do what Bills fans have been doing this offseason in this endless condemnation of Taylor.

 

 

But it's a visceral thing and I get it considering the 2+ decades without a Franchise QB.

 

But do you think the Eagles fans are celebrating less because it wasn't a Franchise QB who won them a Super Bowl?

 

Do you think Jags or Vikings fans are despondent because it wasn't a Franchise QB who got them to a conference championship game?

 

Look but don't settle and don't pay a King's ransom for a guy you don't love.

 

If the Bills trade up, I expect it's because McBeane loves the guy.

 

Otherwise I think they stay put and probably see if they can suck the marrow of success out of Tyrod.

[Wsam4031]

18 hours ago, JohnBonhamRocks said:

I'd be on board. 

 

One possibly missing piece to that trade: Cordy Glenn. If healthy, the NYG need a LT, and it would just make sense after Dawkins' play. 

Also I think if the giants want a LT in a trade for that pick theyd want Dawkins not Glenn. Hes cost controlled for a few years. They don't have much cap room. I still say keep them both.

[CuddyDark]

Some teams have the OG from ND as the number 1 player in the draft. Giants will probably take him @2.    

[SoCal Deek]

Flash forward to Week 1 of the coming season. All I care is that there’s someone other than TT under center. Free agent, top rookie, total surprise....whatever. It’ll be a wild ride getting there so I think I’ll just pray we make it to the other side of the abyss.

[CuddyDark]

1 minute ago, SoCal Deek said:

Flash forward to Week 1 of the coming season. All I care is that there’s someone other than TT under center. Free agent, top rookie, total surprise....whatever. It’ll be a wild ride getting there so I think I’ll just pray we make it to the other side of the abyss.

I doubt they start a rookie week one. Unless it's Mayfield.

Edited March 8, 2018 by CuddyDark