Hits and Misses: How Successful Was GM Russ Brandon In The Draft?...REVISED

[JohnC]

7 hours ago, May Day 10 said:

 

russ brandon got imto the sports field to be a gm.  that was his dream.  he came onto the bills scene and was a key figure for business backs the bills, and monetizing training camp into an event at his alma mater.  wilson took to him.  he was able to learn the ropes a but under john butler and would study the cba.  donahoe wasnt a fan of his and there was a bit of division.  one of levy's main objectives was to get brandon up to speed.  brandon began getting involved and learning much deeper into player evaluations and x's and o's.  ralph and russ wanted him to get a shot to make a name for himself before mr wilson wad no longer the owner (and the team likely to move) and he was given the gm title.  he wasnt ready, but that was his shot.   

 

fans were ready to revolt, so they installed nix as a front man to appease the masses, brandon was still very intimately involved, and that continued through whaley.  i honestly think he is walled off now as guys like beane, mcdermott (and marrone) dont want to stake their careers and reputation) in the hands of bad devision makers.

 

i find the idea that russ brandon was thrust into the gm role kicking and screaming to be funny.

 

if modrak was "really the gm" all those years, they would just name him gm

Read Kirby's response two down from your post. There is a conspiracy theory that is often promulgated that Brandon weaseled his way into the GM position. That isn't an accurate description of what happened. As Kirby pointed out he basically held the fort in a chaotic situation.In a year or so later he passed the football operation to the football people. 

 

You make it seem that Brandon learning the football side of the operation from people like Nix was his attempt to take over. What you are missing is that it is smart business to intimately learn the operation, from top to bottom. That shouldn't be criticized---it should be praised. 

 

While you and some others have a negative view of Brandon's role in the franchise when Ralph was declining I'm more positive about it. He held things together when there was little cohesion and rationality to the operation. While others boo him I applaud him. 

[Kirby Jackson]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

They might it is true.... but Wilson and Brandon put a number of things in place to make the Bills less attractive as a prospect to someone whose priority was move the team. 

 

Now had we not had buyers with local ties in the Pegulas that might not have been enough because a relocation buyer would have been able to drive the price down accordingly, but Wilson and Brandon did make it less attractive to relocation buyers and every little helps. 

They made it virtually impossible. There were more than a handful of viable candidates (and huge money people) interested with the intention of moving them (LA, Louisville and San Antonio were a couple places that I heard). The lease agreement was so airtight that these people bowed out. They would have had to keep the Bills in Buffalo for 7 years as a lame duck franchise. Even with that out, if I remember correctly, there was one other thing that tied them there (not to mention the Schumer threatening their anti-trust exemption).  Moving was never an option (at least in the short-term). 

 

Pegula was the perfect candidate too. He has the connections and finances to sit at the big boy table. The day that he expressed interest was the day this thing was over. I wouldn’t be even a little surprised if the Wilson/Littman/Brandon contingent was working with him behind the scenes. It was never a fair fight.

Edited February 22, 2018 by Kirby Jackson

[Kirby Jackson]

25 minutes ago, JohnC said:

Read Kirby's response two down from your post. There is a conspiracy theory that is often promulgated that Brandon weaseled his way into the GM position. That isn't an accurate description of what happened. As Kirby pointed out he basically held the fort in a chaotic situation.In a year or so later he passed the football operation to the football people. 

 

You make it seem that Brandon learning the football side of the operation from people like Nix was his attempt to take over. What you are missing is that it is smart business to intimately learn the operation, from top to bottom. That shouldn't be criticized---it should be praised. 

 

While you and some others have a negative view of Brandon's role in the franchise when Ralph was declining I'm more positive about it. He held things together when there was little cohesion and rationality to the operation. While others boo him I applaud him. 

I couldn’t agree with you more John. For all of RB’s flaws not caring about the organization is about last on the list. The guy has pretty much dedicated his adult life to ensuring the stability of the Bills in WNY. He carried out the owner’s wishes even when it wasn’t in his best interest. He played the fall guy. 

[JohnC]

34 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I couldn’t agree with you more John. For all of RB’s flaws not caring about the organization is about last on the list. The guy has pretty much dedicated his adult life to ensuring the stability of the Bills in WNY. He carried out the owner’s wishes even when it wasn’t in his best interest. He played the fall guy. 

Without question the Pegulas have struggled as new owners in two sports. They certainly made mistakes as new  owners who were too willing to provide resources without the careful thought that should have preceded the major expenditure. But I'm going to give them a mulligan as first time owners. 

 

What I see going on with the Bills is that Pegula hired a new HC in McDermott who prior to his hiring put a lot of thought not only how he would coach but also how an organization should be structured and staffed. That's why I'm more optimistic now than I have been in more than a generation about the direction of the franchise. I still see the Bills in a rebuilding mode that is going to take at least another few years before they become a serious team. What is encouraging is that there is an alignment between the front office and the HC. The staff that has been recently hired are top shelf. Already, the assistant GM has been hired by Houston and another staffer was seriously considered for a GM position in Carolina. That's a testament to the quality of people who were hired. 

 

Going back to the Brandon issue he is recognized as one of the best in the business in managing a sports business. He, more than anyone else, kept this small market and archaically run franchise fiscally viable through his regionalization plan. The tailgating crowd was upset with the Toronto series but from a marketing standpoint it made a lot of sense. Without a doubt Brandon has made some mistakes. His involvement in the hiring of Rex certainly was a big mistake. But for the most part I blame the owner for that absurd hire. Overall, the Pegulas made the right choice when they hired him to run the business side of their sports conglomeration. 

[Jay_Fixit]

8 hours ago, teef said:

since you live in idaho, i bet you still have a tube tv.

Rochester now is what anywhere in Idaho was 30 years ago. You still have to run to the nearest creek for fresh water?

[boater]

Let's look at Russ Brandon... because as they say in the Army: There's no horse dead enough that it can't be kicked some more.

[BuffaloRush]

Just added 2009 for all that's interested.  Russ is still behind Marv but the draft helped him quite a bit

[Nihilarian]

On ‎2‎/‎22‎/‎2018 at 3:04 PM, Kirby Jackson said:

I couldn’t agree with you more John. For all of RB’s flaws not caring about the organization is about last on the list. The guy has pretty much dedicated his adult life to ensuring the stability of the Bills in WNY. He carried out the owner’s wishes even when it wasn’t in his best interest. He played the fall guy. 

 

If this were the least bit true he would have hired a top GM from the get-go or persuaded RW to hire someone other than only people he knew and trusted. Instead, he opted to be involved in the football side of things! Even if he didn't make any actual decisions on free agents or draft picks his presence kept a real qualified GM from being hired. 

 

What do Marv Levy, Russ Brandon, Buddy Nix and Doug Whaley all have in common?  None were actually qualified to be an NFL GM and they all proved it over and over with stupid moves. Donte Whitner over Holati Ngata! Aaron Maybin over Brian Orakpo! Sammy Watkins that costs two firsts and a fourth over Odell Beckham Jr. 

 

Russ Brandon enjoyed his role involved in the football side of things with literally no accountability whatsoever. He wanted to be involved in building a winner in Buffalo and the end result was another Matt Millen. Brandon was involved in the Buffalo Bills football org side from 2008 thru 2016 and was with the team long before that.

 

 

I'm just ever so grateful that Brandon did help bring in new ownership that wants to keep the team in Buffalo. Along with this new owner hiring the right man as HC and then standing back and allowing him to do his job.

[BuffaloRush]

4 minutes ago, Nihilarian said:

If this were the least bit true he would have hired a top GM from the get-go or persuaded RW to hire someone other than only people he knew and trusted. Instead, he opted to be involved in the football side of things! Even if he didn't make any actual decisions on free agents or draft picks his presence kept a real qualified GM from being hired. 

 

What do Marv Levy, Russ Brandon, Buddy Nix and Doug Whaley all have in common?  None were actually qualified to be an NFL GM and they all proved it over and over with stupid moves. Donte Whitner over Holati Ngata! Aaron Maybin over Brian Orakpo! Sammy Watkins that costs two firsts and a fourth over Odell Beckham Jr. 

 

Russ Brandon enjoyed his role involved in the football side of things with literally no accountability whatsoever. He wanted to be involved in building a winner in Buffalo and the end result was another Matt Millen. Brandon was involved in the Buffalo Bills football org side from 2008 thru 2016 and was with the team long before that.

 

 

I'm just ever so grateful that Brandon did help bring in new ownership that wants to keep the team in Buffalo. Along with this new owner hiring the right man as HC and then standing back and allowing him to do his job.

 

Nihilarian - this is very tough to debate.  What those men all had in common as well is that they were all internal hires.  After Donahoe Ralph was too scared to hire outside of the organization for fear of another Donahoe situation.  It was a move that no-doubt hurt the franchise for nearly a decade and IMO it's probably the biggest factor responsible for "the drought"

[Kirby Jackson]

Just now, Nihilarian said:

If this were the least bit true he would have hired a top GM from the get-go or persuaded RW to hire someone other than only people he knew and trusted. Instead, he opted to be involved in the football side of things! Even if he didn't make any actual decisions on free agents or draft picks his presence kept a real qualified GM from being hired. 

 

What do Marv Levy, Russ Brandon, Buddy Nix and Doug Whaley all have in common?  None were actually qualified to be an NFL GM and they all proved it over and over with stupid moves. Donte Whitner over Holati Ngata! Aaron Maybin over Brian Orakpo! Sammy Watkins that costs two firsts and a fourth over Odell Beckham Jr. 

 

Russ Brandon enjoyed his role involved in the football side of things with literally no accountability whatsoever. He wanted to be involved in building a winner in Buffalo and the end result was another Matt Millen. Brandon was involved in the Buffalo Bills football org side from 2008 thru 2016 and was with the team long before that.

 

 

I'm just ever so grateful that Brandon did help bring in new ownership that wants to keep the team in Buffalo. Along with this new owner hiring the right man as HC and then standing back and allowing him to do his job.

He didn’t have the authority at the beginning. As soon as he was out from under Littman they hired Nix. 

 

Russ didn’t care if he was involved. That’s a giant misconception. He did it because they asked him to. People believe that he was scouting and making football decisions. That’s just not true. 

 

Obviously he wants what’s best for the Bills and WNY. Anyone that thinks otherwise is an idiot. That’s exactly why I said he was “the fall guy.” Because people actually believe that he didn’t (or doesn’t) care about the Bills.  He cares as much (or more) than just about anyone in that building. He has pretty much dedicated his life to it. 

 

Whaley wasn’t qualified? He was the 2nd in charge in Pittsburgh before coming to the Bills. If the guy right underneath Kevin Colbert shouldn’t be considered, who should?!?!?!?!?

[Nihilarian]

6 minutes ago, BuffaloRush said:

 

Nihilarian - this is very tough to debate.  What those men all had in common as well is that they were all internal hires.  After Donahoe Ralph was too scared to hire outside of the organization for fear of another Donahoe situation.  It was a move that no-doubt hurt the franchise for nearly a decade and IMO it's probably the biggest factor responsible for "the drought"

The thing is that Bill Polian had a very difficult time in urging the owner to make changes all over the team. From paying Jim Kelly top dollar to free agents and stadium changes. Russ Brandon could have urged the owner to hire more qualified people was my point and that decade probably wouldn't have been wasted. My take is he enjoyed being involved and didn't want to share power or lose the ability to be involved. 

 

Russ Brandon wanted to be involved in football decisions and even though he didn't make actual choices he had a tremendous influence on most everything that happened during his time as GM, team president. 

 

Even Leroi stated the man was heavily involved in the football side! Then when you read that Russ was in the teams cut room meeting while on the phone with players is all it takes to realize just how involved he was. 

[BuffaloRush]

9 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

He didn’t have the authority at the beginning. As soon as he was out from under Littman they hired Nix. 

 

Russ didn’t care if he was involved. That’s a giant misconception. He did it because they asked him to. People believe that he was scouting and making football decisions. That’s just not true. 

 

Obviously he wants what’s best for the Bills and WNY. Anyone that thinks otherwise is an idiot. That’s exactly why I said he was “the fall guy.” Because people actually believe that he didn’t (or doesn’t) care about the Bills.  He cares as much (or more) than just about anyone in that building. He has pretty much dedicated his life to it. 

 

Whaley wasn’t qualified? He was the 2nd in charge in Pittsburgh before coming to the Bills. If the guy right underneath Kevin Colbert shouldn’t be considered, who should?!?!?!?!?

 

I do remember that Whaley was highly regarded when he came to Buffalo.  In the end though, it certainly did appear that Whaley was in over his head as GM. 

 

I do think that he has a valid point about the rest of the group not being qualified and not being good candidates for GM

[Kirby Jackson]

2 minutes ago, BuffaloRush said:

 

I do remember that Whaley was highly regarded when he came to Buffalo.  In the end though, it certainly did appear that Whaley was in over his head as GM. 

 

I do think that he has a valid point about the rest of the group not being qualified and not being good candidates for GM

Whether or not they succeeded is different than whether or not they were qualified. Whaley was certainly qualified. The rest not so much...

[Nihilarian]

11 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

He didn’t have the authority at the beginning. As soon as he was out from under Littman they hired Nix. 

 

Russ didn’t care if he was involved. That’s a giant misconception. He did it because they asked him to. People believe that he was scouting and making football decisions. That’s just not true. 

 

Obviously he wants what’s best for the Bills and WNY. Anyone that thinks otherwise is an idiot. That’s exactly why I said he was “the fall guy.” Because people actually believe that he didn’t (or doesn’t) care about the Bills.  He cares as much (or more) than just about anyone in that building. He has pretty much dedicated his life to it. 

 

Whaley wasn’t qualified? He was the 2nd in charge in Pittsburgh before coming to the Bills. If the guy right underneath Kevin Colbert shouldn’t be considered, who should?!?!?!?!?

1

I believe Brandon cared about keeping the Bills in Buffalo and that he wanted the best for the team. I simply think that he thought his involvement in the football side was in the best interest of the team. 

 

 

Qualified, yes to a point as the Steelers pro personnel coordinator. Kevin Colbert held the job as GM and director of football operations. Whaley did tutor under Nix who was also somewhat qualified. However, I think his record and history as being GM in Buffalo speaks for itself.  A .469 W/L% 

[billsfanmiami(oh)]

8 minutes ago, Nihilarian said:

The thing is that Bill Polian had a very difficult time in urging the owner to make changes all over the team. From paying Jim Kelly top dollar to free agents and stadium changes. Russ Brandon could have urged the owner to hire more qualified people was my point and that decade probably wouldn't have been wasted. My take is he enjoyed being involved and didn't want to share power or lose the ability to be involved. 

 

Russ Brandon wanted to be involved in football decisions and even though he didn't make actual choices he had a tremendous influence on most everything that happened during his time as GM, team president. 

 

Even Leroi stated the man was heavily involved in the football side! Then when you read that Russ was in the teams cut room meeting while on the phone with players is all it takes to realize just how involved he was. 

 

He “could have” urged Ralph to do a lot of things but those probably would have fallen on deaf ears. This is nothing more than a hunch but I think one of the big secrets of the latter years of the drought was trying to navigate the tricky process of building a winner but also trying not to step on the toes of only owner the team ever had (who by that point, was probably nowhere near being able to make sound business / football decisions) If you’ve ever dealt with an elderly family member you probably “get it” to some extent. Might I add for matters probbaly far less complicated than being and NFL owner / running a billion dollar business. 

[BuffaloRush]

12 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Whether or not they succeeded is different than whether or not they were qualified. Whaley was certainly qualified. The rest not so much...

 

OK I agree with you there

[oldmanfan]

On 2/21/2018 at 5:41 PM, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

 

...but in his defense, the OBD organization was built on trust as Ralph lived in Michigan.....sadly he tried to atone for the Polian debacle that Littmann won out on and went to the other extreme by naming Donohole "President", the FIRST in club history.....you know the rest.....OBD Administration was the media's laughing stock so he went with the "trust element" first and foremost with unqualifieds or those beyond their years....just a sad era in this club's history.........

Bingo.  Donahoe's failure cost the team for over a decade

[Rico]

20 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Whether or not they succeeded is different than whether or not they were qualified. Whaley was certainly qualified. The rest not so much...

Yeah, there’s no doubt about that, I thought it was a good move when they brought him in.

[Nihilarian]

1 minute ago, billsfanmiami(oh) said:

 

He “could have” urged Ralph to do a lot of things but those probably would have fallen on deaf ears. This is nothing more than a hunch but I think one of the big secrets of the latter years of the drought was trying to navigate the tricky process of building a winner but also trying not to step on the toes of only owner the team ever had (who by that point, was probably nowhere near being able to make sound business / football decisions) If you’ve ever dealt with an elderly family member you probably “get it” to some extent. Might I add for matters probbaly far less complicated than being and NFL owner / running a billion dollar business. 

4

Ralph Wilson wasn't an invalid or in a nursing home environment until perhaps his last few years or so. We are talking about a decade here.

 

Russ Brandon joined the Buffalo Bills in 1997 and took over an executive position in 2006 where he was named the director of non-football operations. Then he took over as de facto GM after Levy retired at the end of 2007. 

[billsfanmiami(oh)]

1 minute ago, Nihilarian said:

Ralph Wilson wasn't an invalid or in a nursing home environment until perhaps his last few years or so. We are talking about a decade here.

 

Russ Brandon joined the Buffalo Bills in 1997 and took over an executive position in 2006 where he was named the director of non-football operations. Then he took over as de facto GM after Levy retired at the end of 2007. 

 

 

Just because he wasn’t in a nursing home doesn’t mean he wasn’t difficult to deal with. Hell, I’d say it’s fairly well documented he wasn’t easy to deal with in his “prime”. All I’m saying, is that I could very easily see it being a tricky, complex situation with Brandon trying his best to steer the ship, as Kirby has indicated. 

[Nihilarian]

39 minutes ago, billsfanmiami(oh) said:

 

 

Just because he wasn’t in a nursing home doesn’t mean he wasn’t difficult to deal with. Hell, I’d say it’s fairly well documented he wasn’t easy to deal with in his “prime”. All I’m saying, is that I could very easily see it being a tricky, complex situation with Brandon trying his best to steer the ship, as Kirby has indicated. 

Wilson trusted Brandon so much he not only made him CEO right after the team hired Buddy Nix as GM in 2010.  Brandon was also named team president on Jan 1st, 2013 giving the man full control over the franchise. He could have hired whomever he wanted at that point and yet things remained the same. 

 

Brandon has been actively involved in the football side of operations since Marv retired and was in those cut room meetings as recently with Rex Ryan as head coach.It was noted by Tim Graham that Russ was in the film room breaking down film with scouts. At the combine where he meets with agents about player contracts, in the draft room.   It's my opinion that Brandon has a hand in every coach, GM hires since Marv left. Had the team hired a real NFL GM I highly doubt that the marketing guy is on the phone to players in cut room meetings or in the film room. 

 

Like I said, I'm just grateful that real football people are now running the football side and the result was a playoff appearance. 

[Paulus]

Revised, but still lists Reggie as a bust... Get outta herrrre!!!

[Bill_with_it]

On 2/21/2018 at 2:45 PM, BuffaloRush said:

 

We will continue to take a look at the past General Managers in Buffalo and who was the most successful with the draft based on hits and misses.   Today it's time to see how Russ  Brandon did.  If you recall Brandon was named "General Manager" after former GM Marv Levy quietly stepped aside.  It is believed that while Brandon was involved in many football decision, the majority of GM duties (including the draft) fell to the competent trio of Tom Modrak (Draft), John Guy (Pro) and Richard "Dick" Jauron (A Bit of Everything).

 

Here's the criteria I shared for defining a "hit" and a "miss"

While this is very subjective, I am defining a "hit" as any player that reasonably performed at or above his draft status.  As an example, a player like Paul Pozlusny becoming a solid starting LB as a 2nd round pick.  A "miss" is the opposite - a player who performed under or well under their draft status.  If you draft a player in the first round and they are a marginal starter, I am defining that as a miss.  

 

Like many of my polls, I think this will be very debated.   Let's see how Russ did in two NFL Drafts

 

Year	Rnd	Player	Pick	Pos	To	AP1	PB	St	CarAV	G	Cmp	Att	Yds	TD	Int	Att	Yds	TD	Rec	Yds	TD	Int	Sk	College/Univ
2008	1	Leodis McKelvin	11	DB	2016	0	0	4	29	111												15		Troy
2008	2	James Hardy	41	WR	2009	0	0	0	1	16									10	96	2			Indiana
2008	3	Chris Ellis	72	DE	2010	0	0	0	2	15													1.0	Virginia Tech
2008	4	Reggie Corner	114	DB	2011	0	0	0	8	55												2	1.0	Akron
2008	4	Derek Fine	132	TE	2009	0	0	0	2	18									19	158	1			Kansas
2008	5	Alvin Bowen	147	LB	2010	0	0	0	0	2														Iowa St.
2008	6	Xavier Omon	179	RB	2009	0	0	0	0	7						11	27	0	0	0	0			NW Missouri St.
2008	7	Demetress Bell	219	T	2012	0	0	2	15	40														NW State (LA)
2008	7	Steve Johnson	224	WR	2015	0	0	5	33	99						2	16	0	381	4764	34			Kentucky
2008	7	Kennard Cox	251	DB	2014	0	0	0	2	29													0.5	Pittsburgh

 

2008 Draft = 2 Hits/8 Misses = Success Rate of 20%

 

 

This was an unsuccessful draft in oh...so many ways.

 

MISSES

Yes Leodis McKelvin was a "miss."  You can say that was an an "average NFL starter," but you NOT draft an "average NFL starter" with the 11th pick in the first round.  I am sorry but Leodis never lived up to his draft status this was a miss.  Speaking of miss - one of the most spectacular 2nd round busts in Bills history was James Hardy.  This was an ill-advised pick based on a player's physical size which never materialized.  The rest of the guy are non-factors...just a terrible brutal draft.

 

HITS

Old Russ did the 7th round right.  First, I will give Demetrius Bell a very very very marginal thumbs up.  He essentially was a 3 year starter for the Bills as a 7th round pick.  I will call him a slightly "average NFL starter" which is good for a 7th round pick (not the 11th pick in the 1st round).

 

 

Then there is Stevie Johnson.  Say what you will, but Russ Brandon made arguably one of the greatest draft picks in Bills history.  

 

2009 Draft

2009	1	Aaron Maybin	11	DE	2012	0	0	0	5	48													6.0	Penn St.
2009	1	Eric Wood	28	C	2017	0	1	9	47	120														Louisville
2009	2	Jairus Byrd	42	DB	2017	0	3	7	40	118												25	4.0	Oregon
2009	2	Andy Levitre	51	G	2017	0	0	9	55	141														Oregon St.
2009	4	Shawn Nelson	121	TE	2010	0	0	1	1	17									20	181	1			Southern Miss
2009	5	Nic Harris	147	LB	2010	0	0	0	5	30													1.5	Oklahoma
2009	6	Cary Harris	183	DB	2010	0	0	0	1	6												2		USC
2009	7	Ellis Lankster	220	DB	2014	0	0	0	5	49												2	1.0	West Virginia

 

2009 Draft

 

3 Hits/5 misses = 38%

 

Yeah Russ whiffed BADLY on Aaron Maybin.  Perhaps one of the worst draft picks in Bills history.  But he did well in the rest of the 1st and 2nd round netting 3 Pro Bowl players who had decent careers in Buffalo.  This draft will likely save his Hit to Miss ratio.

 

So overall yes, Russ was a very bad GM...BUT thanks to 3 solid picks in 2009 his final score is 28%

 

For those keeping score:

 

Success Rate as GM:

 

Marv Levy:  31%

Russ Brandon: 28%

Russ was terrible as GM.