With the emergence of QBs like Case Keenum do GMs need to re-evaluate things?

[DisplacedBillsFan]

25 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

6 years in means we'd have already given him a 2nd contract and he'd be at least 2 years into that one. In his first 3 years in Houston he started 10 games and the Texans went 2-8 in those games. Thinking he'd have lasted beyond his rookie contract is foolish. If a player isn't going to contribute within the duration of their rookie contract then they aren't worth the draft pick.

I don't know as if I agree with that. If they turn out to be a stud but you have to wait 7 years, how is that not worth it compared to guys who are no longer on the team, or perhaps never even made the team. Of course, this is all hypothetical. The fact is, Keenum was undrafted. Is it worth the money and roster spot for 6 or 7 seasons if in season 8 he lights it up and wins playoff games for you? I say yes.

[BuffaloHokie13]

10 minutes ago, DisplacedBillsFan said:

I don't know as if I agree with that. If they turn out to be a stud but you have to wait 7 years, how is that not worth it compared to guys who are no longer on the team, or perhaps never even made the team. Of course, this is all hypothetical. The fact is, Keenum was undrafted. Is it worth the money and roster spot for 6 or 7 seasons if in season 8 he lights it up and wins playoff games for you? I say yes.

So you're thinking that teams are going to extend players beyond their rookie contract when they haven't proven to be a worthwhile contributor? And that's not even getting into situations like Tyrod, who believed he had starting ability and refused a contract extension to remain a backup despite limited regular season action.

[SaviorPeterman]

While this year was somewhat of an anomaly if you look at the top 4 teams left in the playoffs, at the end of the day franchise QB play still reigns supreme which is why Brady and the Pats overcame a 10 point 4th quarter deficit against an upstart Jags team.

 

Bortles had a good postseason run but his overall body of work indicates he's probably not a long term franchise QB option.

 

Nick Foles is also a back up for a reason and is probably going implode against New England on the big stage.

 

As for Keenum, still think he is a one year wonder in which everything fell into place for him this year in MN. But in a true test in the NFC championship he showed who he really likely is and that's a very good backup or Tyrod Taylor type of starter.

[DCOrange]

1 hour ago, DisplacedBillsFan said:

In 2011 we drafted;

     Round 1 Marcell Dareus

     Round 2 Aaron Williams

     Round 3 Kelvin Sheppard

     Round 4 Da'Norris Searcy

     Round 4 Chris Hairston

     Round 5 Johnny White

     Round 6 Chris White

     Round 7 Just Rogers

     Round 7 Michael Jasper

 

I would say, having a QB on the roster this year that played as well as Keenum did would be worth any one of those draft picks, considering none of them are even on the team any longer or (aside from Dareus) even making a meaningful contribution to a team in the NFL.

I promise you that if you worked for an NFL team and told them "We don't need a QB. In 7 years, I have a feeling this guy might be pretty good" and you then proceeded to wait through years of watching said QB suck, you'd be fired long before you ever got near Year 7. It simply isn't an option. If a QB still sucks by the end of their rookie contract, there is no justifiable reason to give them a second contract.

[DisplacedBillsFan]

21 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

I promise you that if you worked for an NFL team and told them "We don't need a QB. In 7 years, I have a feeling this guy might be pretty good" and you then proceeded to wait through years of watching said QB suck, you'd be fired long before you ever got near Year 7. It simply isn't an option. If a QB still sucks by the end of their rookie contract, there is no justifiable reason to give them a second contract.

Agree. But the discussion wasn't really about if someone would be able to keep a job through all of this or if it would be realistic. The question was asking if it would be worth it. And I say, yes, it would absolutely be worth it.

36 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

So you're thinking that teams are going to extend players beyond their rookie contract when they haven't proven to be a worthwhile contributor? And that's not even getting into situations like Tyrod, who believed he had starting ability and refused a contract extension to remain a backup despite limited regular season action.

Your getting into the reality of the situation and asking how this would even be possible. You are absolutely right, almost impossible to justify a move like this. But would it be worth it if you did do it? Yea, it would be.

[DCOrange]

15 minutes ago, DisplacedBillsFan said:

Agree. But the discussion wasn't really about if someone would be able to keep a job through all of this or if it would be realistic. The question was asking if it would be worth it. And I say, yes, it would absolutely be worth it.

Your getting into the reality of the situation and asking how this would even be possible. You are absolutely right, almost impossible to justify a move like this. But would it be worth it if you did do it? Yea, it would be.

Sure, if you theoretically knew it would all pay off in 7 years, you could justify paying the guy until he's actually worth the money, but nobody has that luxury. If you draft a guy and work with him for 4 or 5 years and he still sucks after that time, there's simply no way you can reasonably sign him to another contract with the faith that it'll click in a couple more years. You would have to be certifiably insane.

[DisplacedBillsFan]

1 minute ago, DCOrange said:

You would have to be certifiably insane.

Well, I think this label could be applied to a few owners and coaches in the NFL haha

[ALF]

If a team has Pat Shurmur as a QB whisperer his QB can have temporary success until DCs figure it out.  jmo

[Jamie Muellers Ghost]

Who has the final decision on QB ?

 

The coach who drafted Nathan Peterman

 

The Rookie GM who worked under Gettlemen and has Newton fall into there hands

 

The meddling owners that brought you Rex Ryan, Pat Lafontaine, and Ted Nolan

 

I do  not see a QB whisperer here, and it reminds me again of the last 20 years of mediocrity.

Edited January 24, 2018 by Jamie Muellers Ghost

[Hapless Bills Fan]

9 hours ago, Westside Madness said:

 

The irony with this is that the QB that beat him is also one that has been considered a 'career backup' and played well...

 

Oh, it's even more ironic than that.  Foles (with some picks) was traded to the Rams for Sam Bradford

The Rams then traded a 7th for Keenum, whom they'd cut and put on the practice squad the previous year.

 

Foles played badly on a bad Rams team with poor coaching, and got benched for Keenum.

 

You just have to know Foles felt sweet, sweet redemption flowing through his veins as the clock ticked to "zip"

 

6 hours ago, DCOrange said:

I promise you that if you worked for an NFL team and told them "We don't need a QB. In 7 years, I have a feeling this guy might be pretty good" and you then proceeded to wait through years of watching said QB suck, you'd be fired long before you ever got near Year 7. It simply isn't an option. If a QB still sucks by the end of their rookie contract, there is no justifiable reason to give them a second contract.

 

SF 49ers - Alex Smith

St Louis Rams - Sam Bradford

Edited January 25, 2018 by Hapless Bills Fan

[3rdand12]

11 hours ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

The clock struck twelve on Keenum. 

you mean he has turned into a Pumpkin ?

[26CornerBlitz]

2 minutes ago, 3rdand12 said:

you mean he has turned into a Pumpkin ?

 

The carriage he was riding in did. 

[3rdand12]

9 hours ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

These are interesting points. We are seeing the success of guys like Keenum, Cousin, Foles, Garoppolo, because they were backups at points and got to observe and develop.  Even Alex Smith wasn't very good until late in his 49ers career and we saw him take off with the move to KC. It takes time. That's why people may take a shot on AJ McCarron or even a guy like Tyler Bray, guys sitting in the background on rosters developing. 

 

Every year we hear during draft time that guys need to sit a year or two and develop, because they are not ready. But time and time again we see guys drafted early and starting right away and looking terrible. There are just so many guys who got thrown to the wolves too early and are now out of the game. I think at times this can work as we saw with guys like Peyton Manning or even Goff and Wentz in their second years. But to me these are exceptions. Owners need to commit to coaches and GMs for longer so that they can properly develop quarterbacks. The Bears threw Mitch Trubisky in there and everyone got fired anyway. They probably would have been better off letting him sit. 

 

Rodgers sat. Rivers sat. Even Eli sat for a little bit. Carson Palmer sat for 1 full season and the Bengals refused to play him. It was the best thing for him. I suppose we could see a return to that mentality, but it seems unlikely. 

 

Guys like Rosen, Darnold, Jackson are only 20-21 years old. That is just extremely young to be starting games in the NFL. 

Common sense often goes out the window when working for a margin driven corporation. Profits, stretch goals and revenue above and beyond a balanced sheet.
more and now are great key words here.
Building and development are coy phrases these days in the profit based NFL. mean little.
Brandon knows

[mjt328]

Let's see how long Case Keenum can sustain success.  One year wonders happen quite a bit in the NFL.

 

A few years ago, Ryan Fitzpatrick had a career year and looked pretty good for the New York Jets.  He followed that with one of his worst seasons ever.

 

The Vikings managed to pull a pretty good season from Sam Bradford last year too.  Did the light click on for him too, or do they have a system that works well for average quarterbacks?  It's something for teams to consider if/when guys like Keenum, Bradford or Teddy Bridgewater hit the market this offseason.

[3rdand12]

8 hours ago, ProcessTheTrust said:

I mean think about it with our current situation with TT. He's another guy who looked like just needed some time on the bench to learn and when he got his shot, could become the franchise. Welp....

did he?
 seems to me he needed live rounds.
i don't feel that's a valid detrimental argument

[3rdand12]

it might be more of a right place right time thing.

 Coaching > quality players on Offense > a balanced game.. run vs pass. Thats effective.

 Dabol has the concept right. does he have the players and the Coaches to be able to do either. That's when players and reasonable QBs find success.
Brady throw 53 times for the win! Most all teams cannot pull that off. Passing League? sure. But you have to be able to do both via Coaching and effective players.

[apuszczalowski]

11 hours ago, matter2003 said:

Keenum is better than Tyrod and would likely do a lot better than him with Daboll's system...

If you're striving for someone who is just "better then TT", your still going to be in trouble. What they need to be looking for is someone who can fill the position at a good level. We don't have to give up everything to try and find the next Brady/Manning/Brees/Rogers, but they should be striving for atleast the next Big Ben, Stafford, Ryan, Rivers, etc.

They don't need to have an elite Qb to win (but if one is found thats great..). A QB from the next shelf down from elite would be good enough to be contenders each year

 

 

As for Keenum, doesn't this happen almost every year? Some journeyman or young kid comes in and looks good on a very good team. They become the 'it' player in the offseason and someone ends up overpaying to get them hoping they found a diamond in the rough and they end up getting burned?

Edited January 25, 2018 by apuszczalowski

[Thurman#1]

15 hours ago, clayboy54 said:

After this past Sunday, you are using an example of why GMs are correct and have been correct in evaluating Keenum and other similar QBs correctly. They are career backups. They may be good backups, but they're still backups.

 

 

 

Keenum's season was not an example of GMs being right, it was him playing like a top ten guy. One bad game when under a lot of pressure doesn't mean he's not a very good QB. We'll find out next year. My guess is that he's arrived and it wasn't a freak year.

[Thurman#1]

4 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

SF 49ers - Alex Smith

 

St Louis Rams - Sam Bradford

 

 

 

Smith was in his sixth year of play, not his seventh when he had that great season. Seven years in the league and one completely lost to injury from a failed previous surgery. There's a lot of evidence that he had been held back as successfully as if they'd been actually trying to screw him. Six new OCs  (Mike McCarthy, Norv Turner, Jim Hostler, Mike Martz -Smith missed the whole season-  Jimmy Raye, Mike Johnson) in his first six years on the roster and five years of play? That's insane!!!  But Smith still had to take a pay cut in a restructure to stay on the roster after the first four years.

 

Bradford was out of STL after four years.

 

 

Edited January 25, 2018 by Thurman#1

[apuszczalowski]

7 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

Smith was in his sixth year of play, not his seventh when he had that great season. Seven years in the league and one completely lost to injury from a failed previous surgery. There's a lot of evidence that he had been held back as successfully as if they'd been actually trying to screw him. Six new OCs  (Mike McCarthy, Norv Turner, Jim Hostler, Mike Martz -Smith missed the whole season-  Jimmy Raye, Mike Johnson) in his first six years on the roster and five years of play? That's insane!!!  But Smith still had to take a pay cut in a restructure to stay on the roster after the first four years.

 

Bradford was out of STL after four years.

 

 

Smith and Bradford were also 1st overall picks.

 

Smith wasnt great in SF and that team has been a mess, he still isn't anything great, probably a very good bridge/placeholder QB

Bradfords issue isn't that he doesn't have the talent or the ability, its that he can never consistently show it cause he can't ever stay healthy enough to play a full season. Has he ever played an entire season in his NFL career? He isn't someone your waiting for a light to turn on for, unless the light is magic and can heal him instead of injuring him....

 

Keenum, like MANY others before him is more likely to go back to looking like a career backup undrafted FA then a top 10 starter in the league. It happens almost every year....