MTBill Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 22 hours ago, Young34 said: Feels good to be the underdog. Typical Bills fashion. As far as the scoring differential goes, if we don't start Peterman that game the 30 point loss likely would have been reduced without an extra five turnovers. That would bring the math up significantly. Seems wrong to assign a "mathematically ought to win X games" when one specific loss this season was half of the overall total. Total outlier imo. I think that comes down to sample size. You only get 16 games... so reducing that is difficult. I want to know the same analytics on all the wildcard teams (e.g. borderline playoff teams) in the same period. I suspect that analytics don't always predict playoffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 (edited) On 1/3/2018 at 4:36 PM, Rob's House said: The numbers are skewed by 2 bad games, one of which we took a chance and started a rookie instead of our starting QB. Between the Saints and Chargers we were -67 points. I'd add that the 2 Patriots games were a lot closer than the final scores would indicate. Of course, the Jets game was not nearly as close as the score indicated, so ... In any case, the Jauron teams were good at consistently losing close games, and Fitz would always bring us back only to consistently turn the ball over at the end. If you look at this team overall throughout the season, they're clearly better than all but 2 or 3 Bills teams this century. I agree, that 3 game stretch was responsible for -81 in point differential. Add in that NE game where we had a 16-13 lead late in the 3rd quarter before the officials ensured the Pats won and we lost going away and that puts us over -100... We win a lot of close games, but usually in those games we have good leads and let the other team back in the game to make it closer rather than it really was rather than being a back and forth game(for the most part) Edited January 5, 2018 by matter2003 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John in Jax Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 (edited) 1 hour ago, Pbomb said: Umm , the jets game was a thursday game, only 3 days to get ready You're right; my mistake. It was the next game vs. the Saints, AT HOME, where they lost by 37 after having 10 days to prepare, and after getting embarrassed on national tv by the Jets the game before. One would have thought that after that terrible game vs. the Jets, the COACHES would have had them "ready for bear" the next game. Edited January 5, 2018 by John in Jax Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickelCity Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 4:22 PM, NoSaint said: Theres just not a huuuuge gap between the 10the and 20th team. You get a few bounces and some luck in tie breakers and you are in. We were probably more like 20 but got a lot of those bounces and snuck in with a weak conference. I think several of the rosters from years past would be favored against this year. thats what was so remarkable about being a middle of the road team most of the stretch and never getting in- statistically we should’ve gotten in on dumb luck a couple times. No shame in that- several teams a year do the same and they sometimes make a little noise. Mans people seem to really struggle with the difference between “more or less likely” and “bet your child’s life guarantee” we we can be a statistical long shot and still get in without ruining models. In fact, that happening sometimes helps support the model. If you project a 30% chance and it NEVER happens, that’s strange. Excellent post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Young34 Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 3 hours ago, MTBill said: I think that comes down to sample size. You only get 16 games... so reducing that is difficult. I want to know the same analytics on all the wildcard teams (e.g. borderline playoff teams) in the same period. I suspect that analytics don't always predict playoffs. I agree. I'm sure there are many teams that compete for the wildcard spot and don't have the analytics to support their bid. It wasn't too long ago the Seahawks made the playoffs with a terrible record. Wasn't it 7-9? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twoandfourteen Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 4:36 PM, Big C said: That is the key matchup. They have as good of a secondary but Tyrod won't let them take the ball from us. Just a reminder that punts are basically controlled turnovers. Keep that in mind when you see Colton trot on to the field. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Over 29 years of fanhood Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 Worst since....? .. not according to the playoff bracket Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ganesh Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 On 1/4/2018 at 2:04 AM, CuddyDark said: Coaching has been better for the most part. Coaching is better than stats or talent. Bingo 7 hours ago, John in Jax said: You're right; my mistake. It was the next game vs. the Saints, AT HOME, where they lost by 37 after having 10 days to prepare, and after getting embarrassed on national tv by the Jets the game before. One would have thought that after that terrible game vs. the Jets, the COACHES would have had them "ready for bear" the next game. They lost to the Saints because they couldn't stop the Run game...This has been a problem all year long. THe bills have to find a way to stop the run on Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Brown Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 12 minutes ago, ganesh said: They lost to the Saints because they couldn't stop the Run game...This has been a problem all year long. THe bills have to find a way to stop the run on Sunday Why the Chiefs and Fins (twice) decided to abandon the running game I have no clue. Jacksonville won't make that mistake. You may have to crowd the box against this team and make Bortles beat you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
folz Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 (edited) Stats can only give you probabilities...and where it concerns humans, many unprobable things happen. Kyle said it best: http://www.buffalobills.com/video/videos/Watch-Kyle-Williams-Victory-Speech/54f63b8e-9918-4de2-abb6-acfd5c6213c1 Edited January 5, 2018 by folz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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