Gutless Call to Punt

[Royale with Cheese]

3 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

You really make yourself look like an idiot everytime you say that, go throw yourself through another table

Ummm yep they do it is real time based on what is on the field

So shaw was Rex decision to punt right?  (avoiding the loss) what about Marrone (avoiding the loss)

 

Damn Bobby...you cannot stand when someone doesn't share your opinion.  

[oldmanfan]

Just now, MAJBobby said:

So you like playing for the statistical outlier (rare) or playing within the statistics?

No just the opposite.  The statistical outlier were the playing conditions yesterday.  Probably somewhere around 8SD from the mean.

 

i would have went for it myself.  But you don't get it odds are a tie is your best hope.  

[MAJBobby]

1 minute ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Damn Bobby...you cannot stand when someone doesn't share your opinion.  

He keeps bringing up the same idiotic defense of weather, players blah blah so therefore statistics and data don't matter, yea that does sound idiotic

[SWATeam]

1 minute ago, MAJBobby said:

So you like playing for the statistical outlier (rare) or playing within the statistics?

Do you not understand that basically none of the statistics were compiled in similar conditions?

[MAJBobby]

Just now, oldmanfan said:

No just the opposite.  The statistical outlier were the playing conditions yesterday.  Probably somewhere around 8SD from the mean.

 

i would have went for it myself.  But you don't get it odds are a tie is your best hope.  

So in 15 years there hasn't been cold snow games for data to crunch.

 

But to each his own McTimid will lose more games than he wins the more he makes that decision

[Gugny]

I think people are overlooking the fact that the Colts are a very, very bad football team.

 

I don't believe McD was playing for a tie.  Getting 3 feet in those conditions - with a 3rd string QB, no less - was not a safe bet.

 

Getting a punt off and holding the 2017 Colts was a far safer bet, in my opinion.

 

I think McD was playing for the win and he went about it wisely.

[Royale with Cheese]

1 minute ago, MAJBobby said:

He keeps bringing up the same idiotic defense of weather, players blah blah so therefore statistics and data don't matter, yea that does sound idiotic

 

I've followed the conversation and it's not idiotic.  Mostly because the conditions weren't similar.

 

[Shaw66]

9 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

You really make yourself look like an idiot everytime you say that, go throw yourself through another table

Ummm yep they do it is real time based on what is on the field

So shaw was Rex decision to punt right?  (avoiding the loss) what about Marrone (avoiding the loss)

I don't remember what Rex's decision was. 

[Royale with Cheese]

Just now, MAJBobby said:

So in 15 years there hasn't been cold snow games for data to crunch.

 

But to each his own McTimid will lose more games than he wins the more he makes that decision

 

This was a blizzard, not just a cold snow game.  There is a massive difference in the elements.

[MAJBobby]

1 minute ago, Gugny said:

I think people are overlooking the fact that the Colts are a very, very bad football team.

 

I don't believe McD was playing for a tie.  Getting 3 feet in those conditions - with a 3rd string QB, no less - was not a safe bet.

 

Getting a punt off and holding the 2017 Colts was a far safer bet, in my opinion.

 

I think McD was playing for the win and he went about it wisely.

So going 65 yards with NO TO is a safer Bet?  Then picking up 1 yard?

Just now, Shaw66 said:

I don't remember what Rex's decision was. 

Punting 4th in short in MIA in OT

1 minute ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

This was a blizzard, not just a cold snow game.  There is a massive difference in the elements.

It was not a blizzard it was Snow, and what was Shady YPC?  What was Bills Running yards? 

Edited December 11, 2017 by MAJBobby

[Gugny]

1 minute ago, MAJBobby said:

So going 65 yards with NO TO is a safer Bet?  Then picking up 1 yard?

 

Against the Colts?  I think so.

[MAJBobby]

Really....

 

So going 65 yards with JOE WEBB at QB and NO TO is a safer bet then picking up 1 yard against the colts?  Really?

[BillsFan130]

49 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

 

Punting on 4^th and 1 was the right decision. 

 

Let me start by saying that I was watching the game at a sports bar.  The room was filled with the audio from another game, so I couldn’t hear the announcers for the Bills game.  Looking at the screen, it was impossible to know where the ball was because all the yard markings were obliterated.  The network only occasionally showed in writing where the ball was.  So when they got to 4^th and 1, I thought punting was a good idea because I would have guessed the Bills hadn’t crossed the 50.

 

If I had known that they were at the Colts 41, I would have said go for it.  And that would have been the wrong decision.  Here’s why:

 

The objective is to make the playoffs.  For the coaches and players, that’s all that matters.  And when you get to this point of the season, it’s almost like you’re already in the playoffs. 

 

The over-riding rule in playoffs is “survive and advance.”  In other words, it doesn’t matter how you survive, it doesn’t matter how ugly or how beautiful or whatever.  Survive.  Giving yourself another game where you have a chance is what you need.   Whether you can win that next game is irrelevant; just getting to the next game is all you want – you’ll worry about how to win that game later. 

 

Survive and advance is where the Bills are now, along with all the other teams in the AFC hovering around .500 and trying to get to the postseason. 

 

And in this period when you’re fighting to get into the playoffs, there is a second important point:  Tie games are closer to wins than to losses.   Why?  Well, 9-6-1 gets you into the playoffs over every 9-7 team, so you don’t have to look to tie-breakers.  8-7-1 gets you in over every 8-8 team, and this is one of those years were 8-8 could actually be enough.  

 

In other words, a tie is not a neutral result.   A tie is a positive result.  Yes, a win is better.  But a tie is more like a win than like a loss.  Stated differently, until you absolutely MUST win, it’s more important not to lose than it is to win.

 

Okay, with that in mind, go back to 4^th and 1 at the Colts 41.   I don’t know the exact probabilities, but looking just at winning or losing, I’d say that going for it on fourth down gave the Bills a 50-50 chance of winning or losing.  Why?   Because the chances of making the first down were around 50-50.  Whichever team had the ball on the next play would have had four minutes left and would have needed to move the ball about 25 yards to try a field goal.  The Bills would have needed 25 to get to the 15 to have a shot at 35-yard field goal into the wind, and the Colts would have need 25 to get to the Bills 35 to try a 50-yard field goal with the wind at their back.  We can argue about the percentages and how far they had to go, etc. but I think I’m in the ball park.

 

So in a two-outcome scenario, going for it is more or less a coin toss.   But it isn’t a two-outcome scenario; it’s three outcomes – win, lose or tie.  It isn’t 50-50; it’s more like 40-40-20. 

 

Given that the Bills are in the playoff hunt, and given that in the hunt ties are more like wins than losses, it’s easy to see why punting was the right call.  If the Bills punt, the chances that either the Bills or the Colts will win the game (if those are the only choices) are probably still 50-50.  The Colts have the ball, which is a plus for them, but they have a long way to go.  The Bills don’t have the ball but they have field position, but they also may run out of time.  

 

But those aren't the only choices; it’s a three outcome scenario.  Although if they punt the chances the Bills will win go down, probably pretty dramatically, the chances that they get a tie go way up.  I’d guess that punting with 4 minutes left reduces the chances of the Bills winning in those conditions to 20%, probably less.  But the chances of tying go UP from 20% to 60%. 

 

Remember, in the playoff hunt, winning is the objective, but not losing is more important than winning.  Going for it on 4^th and 1 the Bills had a 60% chance of not losing.   Punting they had an 80% chance of not losing.  Punting was the right call.

 

Survive and advance. 

 

A tie is not a positive result. It's fair to assume I think they are going to lose in New England. If they tied that game yesterday and finished 8-7-1, that is not good enough for the playoffs. I can almost guarantee that.

 

9-7 might not even be good enough, but that's what they would have to be if they want even a shot at the playoffs.

 

A tie would have pretty much ended their season unless they won at Foxboro which is almost an impossible task for the Bills.

 

 

Edited December 11, 2017 by billsfan11

[Royale with Cheese]

4 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

So going 65 yards with NO TO is a safer Bet?  Then picking up 1 yard?

Punting 4th in short in MIA in OT

It was not a blizzard it was Snow, and what was Shady YPC?  What was Bills Running yards? 

 

You cannot tell me that yesterdays game was a typical snow game.  Thurman Thomas and Steve Tasker both said that this is the worst conditions they ever saw in a Bills game.

 

Vinatteri couldn't even kick a 33 yard FG in the first half because of the wind.  He missed it badly.

 

So you're evidence it was just a snow game was because of RB's yards per carry?  Tell me why they ran so much instead of throwing a lot?  Are you going to tell me weather had nothing to do with it?

4 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

Really....

 

So going 65 yards with JOE WEBB at QB and NO TO is a safer bet then picking up 1 yard against the colts?  Really?

 

I think it was a mistake that McD punted.  However your arguments have been really poor.

[BillsFan130]

4 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

Really....

 

So going 65 yards with JOE WEBB at QB and NO TO is a safer bet then picking up 1 yard against the colts?  Really?

And that's assuming the defence stops the Colts as well lol

[oldmanfan]

9 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

He keeps bringing up the same idiotic defense of weather, players blah blah so therefore statistics and data don't matter, yea that does sound idiotic

I just went to this Number Fire site.  I can't find a thing about the game yesterday, odds, etc.

 

So direct me to their analysis if you would.  Because without it your answer is meaningless.  And I will bet it does not take into account all the variables.

[MAJBobby]

1 minute ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

You cannot tell me that yesterdays game was a typical snow game.  Thurman Thomas and Steve Tasker both said that this is the worst conditions they ever saw in a Bills game.

 

Vinatteri couldn't even kick a 33 yard FG in the first half because of the wind.  He missed it badly.

 

So you're evidence it was just a snow game was because of RB's yards per carry?  Tell me why they ran so much instead of throwing a lot?  Are you going to tell me weather had nothing to do with it?

 

I think it was a mistake that McD punted.  However your arguments have been really poor.

No they haven't.

 

Facts are and it will play out the Bills will lose more then they win when he makes that decision. 

[Royale with Cheese]

Just now, MAJBobby said:

No they haven't.

 

Facts are and it will play out the Bills will lose more then they win when he makes that decision. 

 

Yes Bobby they have.  You're incorporating this past Bills game as not any different conditions than other snow games.  You just don't want to admit it because you're so hardcore with your opinions.  

[MAJBobby]

Just now, oldmanfan said:

I just went to this Number Fire site.  I can't find a thing about the game yesterday, odds, etc.

 

So direct me to their analysis if you would.  Because without it your answer is meaningless.  And I will bet it does not take into account all the variables.

 

You want the ONLY Variables that matter.

 

You season is Over with a Loss or Tie, you need 1 yard, you are on your ST player playing QB and NO WRs to speak of.  So you Punt it, oooo and call a time out before doing it.

 

I get it you LOVE McD but this was and will remain the WRONG decision, you can try to sugar coat it all you want I have seen a lot of that with the Bills over the years.

 

AND IT IS OK to say something the coach did is WRONG even if you like him

 

 

Just now, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Yes Bobby they have.  You're incorporating this past Bills game as not any different conditions than other snow games.  You just don't want to admit it because you're so hardcore with your opinions.  

 

Just the facts, its ok so lets do it again next week, Heck Ryan was right so wasn't Marrone.  OOO Same with LA with their late punt, its ok lets keep punting late in games when we don't have the lead and see what the records are

[cba fan]

19 hours ago, TheTruthHurts said:

Gutless but right.

It went exactly how he planned, that's not luck.

I don't want McDermot piloting and being on board mission commander of the manned NASA vessel they send him and my crew into space in. We may as well crack open the cyanide pills as we leave the launch pad.