THE ROCKPILE REVIEW - Ramblings of a Madman

[BadLandsMeanie]

There is no pocket.

[Shaw66]

24 minutes ago, BadLandsMeanie said:

There is no pocket.

All the more reason not to ask your quarterback to stay in it.   

 

And by the way, this is one of the great sentences in this or any other thread:  "I maintain my physique chiefly by adhering to a strict inactive lifestyle not from saturated fats."   Head scratch followed by laughter.   Beautiful.  

Edited November 22, 2017 by Shaw66

[BadLandsMeanie]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

All the more reason not to ask your quarterback to stay in it.   

 

And by the way, this is one of the great sentences in this or any other thread:  "I maintain my physique chiefly by adhering to a strict inactive lifestyle not from saturated fats."   Head scratch followed by laughter.   Beautiful.  

Thank you for the joke appreciation!

 

Prior to that game I was firmly convinced that Tyrod has limitations he is very unlikely to overcome.

 

I also thought that he has been unwilling to work on the read and throw skills he lacks because he is not humble enough to admit he needs it.

 

I am of the opinion that I learned nothing at all about Nathan Peterman's future in that game aside from that he can take a beating.

 

And I learned that I have no idea of Tyrod Taylor can be a pocket passer or not, because there isn't a pocket. And that losing games 3 to 47 or 10 to 38 is better than losing them 7 to 592, and also maybe having to watch someone die while we do it.

 

I wrote in a different thread that I recall when Drew Bledsoe who was a 1st overall draft pick with 11 years experience including a superbowl appearance, was working in camp with a 3 second timer. They wanted him to be faster and get rid of the ball in 3 seconds.

 

Peterman had between 1.5 seconds and 2.5 seconds before he was hit, in his first NFL start.

 

We had linemen coming in unblocked. Not a blitzing safety, no trickery. A pass rushing specialist lineman, who was unblocked. Because he stepped down a few feet out of his usual starting spot you see. I guess there is no counter to that.

 

Now I think that if Tyrod disagrees with the coaches, then I believe Tyrod. And I think that is fair based on the evidence we have seen.

 

I see you think they have to let Tyrod go now. I think they almost can not even consider that before 2019. I think they just put 16 million dollars in his pocket for next year. 

Who else can they put out there? I can't think of anybody who could stand up to that out there besides him. Any ideas?

 

 

 

 

 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I never really thought much about it, but I think you're absolutely correct about this.   Fans complained that Jauron's philosophy was "playing not to lose," and McDermott is very much in the same mold.   Bend don't dreak defense, conservative offense to run the clock, keep the game close so that you have a shot to win in the end.   In retrospect, the Jaguars game told us all we needed to know.   McDermott didn't open up the offense until literally the last drive or two.  It was completely clear that he was content to be behind so long as he trailed by less than two scores.   Then, late in the game, he opened up the offense and the Bills actually threatened to tie it.   In the following weeks, we saw the same things.  

 

That's a good philosophy to follow when your team isn't competitive in the talent category.    Play conservatively and hope for something good to happen.   Maybe that's all that happened in the first seven games:  maybe the Bills were just lucky, catching the Falcons when they were stumbling around, catching Denver when THEIR wheels were falling off.  Maybe it was just luck.   And maybe Beane and McD knew it.   And maybe they traded Dareus intending to tank.   And maybe they started Peterman because they  knew the season already was in the crapper.   I'd be okay with that, but then why in the world would you trade a second for Benjamin?   If you believe you're in total rebuild mode, you don't make that move.  

 

You know what's really maddening about this, from the offensive side?   Rex comes in and says it's going to be ground and pound.   He brings in a run-oriented offensive coordinator.   One game into his second season, he fires the offensive coordinator, the Bills open up the offense, at least relatively speaking, and the offense flourishes, at least relatively speaking.  McD comes in and brings in a run-oriented offensive coordinator who takes away much of what Taylor does best and asks him to succeed doing the things he isn't so so good at.   And what is that ?  It's staying in the pocket.   And you know what's amazing about that?   Look around the league - offensive lines all over the league are struggling to protect their QBs in the pocket, and everyone is saying you need a mobile QB to win.  New England is the only exception.   Rodgers, Brees, Luck, Mariota, Tannehill, Wilson, Watson, Smith - those are the kind of QBs everyone wants.   Eli, Palmer, Flacco - those are the guys you don't want.   So McD brings him an OC and gives him a QB who fits  the current model, and the OC installs an offense designed to restrict the QB's mobility. 

 

Jauron at least had an excuse.   He didn't have a QB.   

Shaw, thanks for your replay and the details in your response.

 

I think that’s why I like to reference Bills history, because we have heard recent Bills coaches who weren’t successful say the same things.

 

For instance, we’ve heard Jauron say almost verbatim like McDermott, “study the tape and correct mistakes”, and “work hard” as the solutions. Did that ever really work? I think Jauron was simplistic in his approach to the game. Essentially, play a Tampa-2 scheme, try to keep games close with ball control, 3^rd-manageable, punting (“we punted well”) and hope to win because its “hard to win in this league”.

 

Marrone – I think McDermott has a lot of Marrone in him too. He has that same I’ve been there, done that dismissive attitude. The sayings – that “is a part of it”, “I’ve been in this game 20 years”, “I know where you’re going with that”...

 

After the Saints game McDermott said he had to teach better. That the reason for the atrocious run defense was not staying in gaps. I’m not saying I know more than any Coach, I don’t. But isn’t some of the reason that Cedrick Thorton is at the end of his career and getting blown out of the way? That Kyle Williams is now 35 years old? That Deandre Coleman is a borderline NFL talent? That Ryan Davis is your backup DE? That Shaw Lawson is not explosive? That Bills haven’t drafted a DT in something like 7 of the last 10 Drafts?

 

So that’s my biggest worry with McDermott and Beane. Like Jauron, are they going to try and build a team around lunch pail guys like Chris Kelsay, Ryan Denney, Keith Ellison, Josh Reeds, while over-emphasizing character and Special Teams.

 

Coaches around here have been largely trying to win the same way for the later half of this drought. Take the backup level QB you’ve been given (Trent, Fitzpatrick, Orton, Tyrod) and build a safe, run based offense around him, and try to win by playing defense, running the ball and keeping turnovers to a minimum. And the results have been, we can’t beat good teams. We can’t beat teams in November and December when the intensity picks up, attrition is setting in, and the paper thin depth of the Bills (due to years of bad drafting) is tested.

 

I’ll finish with this: I’ll never forget a Pro Football Talk article from years ago. It had commentary on the Bills from other Coaches and GMs. The main line that I remember like yesterday was: “the Bills are hard to play, but easy to beat”. Meaning they scrap, they claw, they play really hard. But in the end their systems are simple to diagnose (remember Free Agent Linebacker Freddy Keiaho from the Colts coming in saying that the Bills run a simple system), Turk Schonert saying the Bills run a pop-gun offense, or Duke Preston saying after he left the Bills for the Packers that the Bills are grasping at straws. I think the 2017 Bills are largely the same. McDermott believes in a simple offensive system that is not going to challenge an opposing defense. We still get the routes on 3^rd that 8 that are thrown 4-5 yards behind the sticks with no chance of succeeding other than a super human effort to break tackles. We believe in running over people as Rex did with Fullbacks. We keep 31-32 year old 260 pound Fullbacks (who are not specimens like Vonta Leach) because they are good for Locker rooms and try to sweep them around the edge and lose yards every single time. Try to “impose” the run with 200 pound LeSean McCoy and nothing else behind him. We play 10 yards off WRs, cut our Linebacker depth (Hodges) for Special Teamers (Webb), trade Cornerbacks the second we get another viable option. All of this has been done before. Was Jordan Matthews really worth it for a 23 year old starting corner when you see this pass defense? Was it worth the 2-3 passes he gets a game?

[Shaw66]

19 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Shaw, thanks for your replay and the details in your response.

 

I think that’s why I like to reference Bills history, because we have heard recent Bills coaches who weren’t successful say the same things.

 

For instance, we’ve heard Jauron say almost verbatim like McDermott, “study the tape and correct mistakes”, and “work hard” as the solutions. Did that ever really work? I think Jauron was simplistic in his approach to the game. Essentially, play a Tampa-2 scheme, try to keep games close with ball control, 3^rd-manageable, punting (“we punted well”) and hope to win because its “hard to win in this league”.

 

Marrone – I think McDermott has a lot of Marrone in him too. He has that same I’ve been there, done that dismissive attitude. The sayings – that “is a part of it”, “I’ve been in this game 20 years”, “I know where you’re going with that”...

 

After the Saints game McDermott said he had to teach better. That the reason for the atrocious run defense was not staying in gaps. I’m not saying I know more than any Coach, I don’t. But isn’t some of the reason that Cedrick Thorton is at the end of his career and getting blown out of the way? That Kyle Williams is now 35 years old? That Deandre Coleman is a borderline NFL talent? That Ryan Davis is your backup DE? That Shaw Lawson is not explosive? That Bills haven’t drafted a DT in something like 7 of the last 10 Drafts?

 

So that’s my biggest worry with McDermott and Beane. Like Jauron, are they going to try and build a team around lunch pail guys like Chris Kelsay, Ryan Denney, Keith Ellison, Josh Reeds, while over-emphasizing character and Special Teams.

 

Coaches around here have been largely trying to win the same way for the later half of this drought. Take the backup level QB you’ve been given (Trent, Fitzpatrick, Orton, Tyrod) and build a safe, run based offense around him, and try to win by playing defense, running the ball and keeping turnovers to a minimum. And the results have been, we can’t beat good teams. We can’t beat teams in November and December when the intensity picks up, attrition is setting in, and the paper thin depth of the Bills (due to years of bad drafting) is tested.

 

I’ll finish with this: I’ll never forget a Pro Football Talk article from years ago. It had commentary on the Bills from other Coaches and GMs. The main line that I remember like yesterday was: “the Bills are hard to play, but easy to beat”. Meaning they scrap, they claw, they play really hard. But in the end their systems are simple to diagnose (remember Free Agent Linebacker Freddy Keiaho from the Colts coming in saying that the Bills run a simple system), Turk Schonert saying the Bills run a pop-gun offense, or Duke Preston saying after he left the Bills for the Packers that the Bills are grasping at straws. I think the 2017 Bills are largely the same. McDermott believes in a simple offensive system that is not going to challenge an opposing defense. We still get the routes on 3^rd that 8 that are thrown 4-5 yards behind the sticks with no chance of succeeding other than a super human effort to break tackles. We believe in running over people as Rex did with Fullbacks. We keep 31-32 year old 260 pound Fullbacks (who are not specimens like Vonta Leach) because they are good for Locker rooms and try to sweep them around the edge and lose yards every single time. Try to “impose” the run with 200 pound LeSean McCoy and nothing else behind him. We play 10 yards off WRs, cut our Linebacker depth (Hodges) for Special Teamers (Webb), trade Cornerbacks the second we get another viable option. All of this has been done before. Was Jordan Matthews really worth it for a 23 year old starting corner when you see this pass defense? Was it worth the 2-3 passes he gets a game?

I can argue with minor points, but overall what you say sounds right.  I've been blind to it for six months while some people have been saying it, but it very much looks like you say.

 

I defended Jauron for a long time, and I'll defend him here.   I think Jauron was a really smart guy with the wrong philosophy.   He was almost hopelessly conservative.   Now, maybe, if presented with a top-notch philosophy he would have a taken a different approach, but I think that conservatism was in his blood.  

 

BUT - I'll say this.   Jauron's teams never got blown out like the Bills have been for three weeks running.   Maybe Jauron's boys got run out of the stadium once in a while when they were playing the league's juggernaut, but other than that his teams actually stayed in the game.   This team hasn't forced a punt in 22 possessions.   Two 4-6 teams have beaten the Bills just as soundly as an 8-2 beat them.   That didn't happen to Jauron teams. 

 

I've gotten extraordinarily pessimistic about this coach very quickly.   Last week I said that before the Jets game McDermott was a leader in the race for coach of the year.   After the Saints game, he would be a shoe-in for coach of the year if he could turn it around and get to the playoffs.    Turning this around this season will take nothing short of a miracle.   Right now you have to conclude that McDermott is MUCH closer to failing as a head coach than taking a team to a Super Bowl.   

[Figster]

55 minutes ago, BadLandsMeanie said:

Thank you for the joke appreciation!

 

Prior to that game I was firmly convinced that Tyrod has limitations he is very unlikely to overcome.

 

I also thought that he has been unwilling to work on the read and throw skills he lacks because he is not humble enough to admit he needs it.

 

I am of the opinion that I learned nothing at all about Nathan Peterman's future in that game aside from that he can take a beating.

 

And I learned that I have no idea of Tyrod Taylor can be a pocket passer or not, because there isn't a pocket. And that losing games 3 to 47 or 10 to 38 is better than losing them 7 to 592, and also maybe having to watch someone die while we do it.

 

I wrote in a different thread that I recall when Drew Bledsoe who was a 1st overall draft pick with 11 years experience including a superbowl appearance, was working in camp with a 3 second timer. They wanted him to be faster and get rid of the ball in 3 seconds.

 

Peterman had between 1.5 seconds and 2.5 seconds before he was hit, in his first NFL start.

 

We had linemen coming in unblocked. Not a blitzing safety, no trickery. A pass rushing specialist lineman, who was unblocked. Because he stepped down a few feet out of his usual starting spot you see. I guess there is no counter to that.

 

Now I think that if Tyrod disagrees with the coaches, then I believe Tyrod. And I think that is fair based on the evidence we have seen.

 

I see you think they have to let Tyrod go now. I think they almost can not even consider that before 2019. I think they just put 16 million dollars in his pocket for next year. 

Who else can they put out there? I can't think of anybody who could stand up to that out there besides him. Any ideas?

 

 

 

 

 

My idea is McD needs to step in now and assist Dennison in adjusting the O to fit Taylor.

 

This notion its all over for Taylor here in Buffalo because the Bills made a switch at the QB position remains to be seen. 

 

Tyrod Taylor loves his football team and nothing will ever change that in my humble opinion.

12 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I can argue with minor points, but overall what you say sounds right.  I've been blind to it for six months while some people have been saying it, but it very much looks like you say.

 

I defended Jauron for a long time, and I'll defend him here.   I think Jauron was a really smart guy with the wrong philosophy.   He was almost hopelessly conservative.   Now, maybe, if presented with a top-notch philosophy he would have a taken a different approach, but I think that conservatism was in his blood.  

 

BUT - I'll say this.   Jauron's teams never got blown out like the Bills have been for three weeks running.   Maybe Jauron's boys got run out of the stadium once in a while when they were playing the league's juggernaut, but other than that his teams actually stayed in the game.   This team hasn't forced a punt in 22 possessions.   Two 4-6 teams have beaten the Bills just as soundly as an 8-2 beat them.   That didn't happen to Jauron teams. 

 

I've gotten extraordinarily pessimistic about this coach very quickly.   Last week I said that before the Jets game McDermott was a leader in the race for coach of the year.   After the Saints game, he would be a shoe-in for coach of the year if he could turn it around and get to the playoffs.    Turning this around this season will take nothing short of a miracle.   Right now you have to conclude that McDermott is MUCH closer to failing as a head coach than taking a team to a Super Bowl.   

McD is rebuilding the the organization from the ground up.

 

Did you really think it was going to be easy?

[Shaw66]

23 minutes ago, Figster said:

McD is rebuilding the the organization from the ground up.

 

Did you really think it was going to be easy?

I didn't think he was rebuilding in the classic sense of the word.   I thought he was transitioning.   

 

It's all about Taylor.   I think the Bills could win with Taylor while they were looking for someone better.  As I said, use the six picks in the 2018 draft to get some talent, bring a couple of free agents with the money you're not spending on Gilmore and Watkins and compete in the league.   That approach could have worked over the next season or two AND made the Bills really good by 2020, maybe with Taylor as your quarterback, maybe not.  

 

You can't follow that plan when you know that 2018 will be Tyrod's last season in Buffalo.   Now you MUST go looking for a replacement for him.   That won't be a free agent, so you have to do it in the draft.   So many teams are looking for QBs that now you have to be prepared to burn two or three or four good picks to get a QB NOW so that he can be your starter in 2020.  On top of that, instead of being a team perceived to be on the rise, the Bills are a team perceived to be rebuilding, so their ability to sign quality free agents, and especially quality free agents in the $2-$5 million per year range is diminished.   The only way free agents are coming is if they're getting top dollar from the Bills.   

 

In short, I think the Bills have abandoned a possible route to success and now are a total unknown for the next three years.   Can these guys evaluate talent?  I don't know.   Even near the top of the draft, getting a QB is a crapshoot, so the Bills could draft a guy who turns out to be LESS productive than Tyrod.    The ENTIRE future of the Bills now depends on McDermott and Beane, and ther now are HUGE questions about whether they know they're doing:  How could they not know that Peterman wasn't ready?   How could they not know that they couldn't afford to lose Dareus for the second half of the season?   If they knew their talent was bad and they started Peterman and traded Dareus because they had given up on the season and were looking ahead, how could they decide to give up a valuable pick to add a stud pass receiver to a team going nowhere?   

 

They didn't say they were rebuilding, and I didn't think they were.   But they are now.,  

[Shaw66]

40 minutes ago, Figster said:

This notion its all over for Taylor here in Buffalo because the Bills made a switch at the QB position remains to be seen. 

 

Put yourself in Taylor's shoes and think about it.  

 

You're at your best in the passing offense when you're scrambling and when you're encouraged to run the ball when the opportunity arises.   You have a head coach who encourages you to play that way.   You played so well your first season that the Bills gave you a long-term contract.   After your second season, with a new head coach, the Bills say they're not so sure and renegotiate so they can get out of the long-term deal.   Then the new guy and his offensive coordinator tell you they want you to stay in the pocket, not to run.    Then your head coach benches you because he believes the guy behind you gives the team a better chance to win when you and all your teammates are thinking "uh, NO!"   

 

You're under contract for one more season.   You're doing your best to play from the pocket, even though (1) your best offensive lineman can't stay on the field, (2) your second best offensive lineman is likely to retire or move on soon, (3) your third best offensive lineman is just okay and (4) your other two offensive linemen wouldn't be starting on most NFL teams., maybe wouldn't even be on the roster.    So your coach doesn't like how you play and won't play to your strengths, the entire offensive line has to be rebuilt in the next two seasons, and you're going to be 30 when you become a free agent.   

 

Under those circumstances, what could your head coach possibly do or say to convince you that you want to be in a Bills uniform in 2019? 

 

Tyrod is counting the days until he get out of town.   His agent probably already has asked the Bills to trade or release him after this season ends.  

[Kelly the Dog]

The key to me is the game plan that Bonehead Coach McD and his OC Uncle Rico design for the Chiefs game. If they continue to try to make Tyrod be strictly a pocket passer, as they did in the Jet and Saint game, or, if they let him run plays that fit his strengths like they did when we were winning, with a lot more designed rollouts and naked boots, etc. 

[Figster]

23 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I didn't think he was rebuilding in the classic sense of the word.   I thought he was transitioning.   

 

It's all about Taylor.   I think the Bills could win with Taylor while they were looking for someone better.  As I said, use the six picks in the 2018 draft to get some talent, bring a couple of free agents with the money you're not spending on Gilmore and Watkins and compete in the league.   That approach could have worked over the next season or two AND made the Bills really good by 2020, maybe with Taylor as your quarterback, maybe not.  

 

You can't follow that plan when you know that 2018 will be Tyrod's last season in Buffalo.   Now you MUST go looking for a replacement for him.   That won't be a free agent, so you have to do it in the draft.   So many teams are looking for QBs that now you have to be prepared to burn two or three or four good picks to get a QB NOW so that he can be your starter in 2020.  On top of that, instead of being a team perceived to be on the rise, the Bills are a team perceived to be rebuilding, so their ability to sign quality free agents, and especially quality free agents in the $2-$5 million per year range is diminished.   The only way free agents are coming is if they're getting top dollar from the Bills.   

 

In short, I think the Bills have abandoned a possible route to success and now are a total unknown for the next three years.   Can these guys evaluate talent?  I don't know.   Even near the top of the draft, getting a QB is a crapshoot, so the Bills could draft a guy who turns out to be LESS productive than Tyrod.    The ENTIRE future of the Bills now depends on McDermott and Beane, and ther now are HUGE questions about whether they know they're doing:  How could they not know that Peterman wasn't ready?   How could they not know that they couldn't afford to lose Dareus for the second half of the season?   If they knew their talent was bad and they started Peterman and traded Dareus because they had given up on the season and were looking ahead, how could they decide to give up a valuable pick to add a stud pass receiver to a team going nowhere?   

 

They didn't say they were rebuilding, and I didn't think they were.   But they are now.,  

Myself personally, I think way to much is being made about the Peterman start and how it relates to the success or failure of the new HC /regime.

10 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Put yourself in Taylor's shoes and think about it.  

 

You're at your best in the passing offense when you're scrambling and when you're encouraged to run the ball when the opportunity arises.   You have a head coach who encourages you to play that way.   You played so well your first season that the Bills gave you a long-term contract.   After your second season, with a new head coach, the Bills say they're not so sure and renegotiate so they can get out of the long-term deal.   Then the new guy and his offensive coordinator tell you they want you to stay in the pocket, not to run.    Then your head coach benches you because he believes the guy behind you gives the team a better chance to win when you and all your teammates are thinking "uh, NO!"   

 

You're under contract for one more season.   You're doing your best to play from the pocket, even though (1) your best offensive lineman can't stay on the field, (2) your second best offensive lineman is likely to retire or move on soon, (3) your third best offensive lineman is just okay and (4) your other two offensive linemen wouldn't be starting on most NFL teams., maybe wouldn't even be on the roster.    So your coach doesn't like how you play and won't play to your strengths, the entire offensive line has to be rebuilt in the next two seasons, and you're going to be 30 when you become a free agent.   

 

Under those circumstances, what could your head coach possibly do or say to convince you that you want to be in a Bills uniform in 2019? 

 

Tyrod is counting the days until he get out of town.   His agent probably already has asked the Bills to trade or release him after this season ends.  

Did T T count the days when he was benched last season?

 

I understand where your coming from and appreciate the thoughtful reply , but I just don't see Taylor giving up without a fight.

 

Taylors benching was partly his fault and Tyrod probably realizes he forced McD/Dennisons hand in my humble opinion.

Edited November 22, 2017 by Figster

[Jerome007]

On 11/19/2017 at 11:28 PM, Shaw66 said:

That’s all out the window now.  Taylor will leave as soon as possible.   Why would he stay?

Why? Because he's under contract, that's why!

 

But the Bills brass better finally give him some love & respect! Hey, I agreed with the move, but after seeing EJ, Cardale and now Peterman, is there any doubt left that Tyrod is the #1 option? Yes, keep searching for that elusive franchise QB. But till then, embrace the best QB on your roster!

[Shaw66]

3 minutes ago, Figster said:

 

Did T T count the days when he was benched last season?

Completely different situation.   He knew his coach was on the way out, and he might have guessed that his GM was on the way out, too.   And he was benched not because of his play but because the Bills couldn't afford to have him get injured.  

 

Now he has a coach who's actively working to replace him.  His new coach presumably led the effort to shorten his long-term deal, and his new coach benched him because he didn't like the results he was getting with Tyrod at QB.   

 

I've said for along time, and people didn't believe me, that Tyrod agreed to renegotiate his contract not because he was afraid he'd get cut but because he wanted to be a free agent again soon.   Today he's glad he did.   

1 minute ago, Jerome007 said:

Why? Because he's under contract, that's why!

 

But the Bills brass better finally give him some love & respect! Hey, I agreed with the move, but after seeing EJ, Cardale and now Peterman, is there any doubt left that Tyrod is the #1 option? Yes, keep searching for that elusive franchise QB. But till then, embrace the best QB on your roster!

They can embrace him all they want, but it's too late.   You only put up with your girlfriend sleeping with other guys before you go looking for someone else.   Unless the Bills go deep into the playoffs with Taylor next season, and I can't see how that can happen, Taylor's leaving.   He'll have 3-4 good years left in his career, he'll have either a crappy offensive line or a brand new offensive line, or both, he'll have a coach who wants him to run an offense that isn't suited to him, and he'll have a four-year history with the Bills of the coaches and front office first telling him we love you, then we hate, then we sort of love you, then we hate you, "no wait, we really love you and we mean it this time."   Why would he sign up for more of that. 

[Jerome007]

6 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

They can embrace him all they want, but it's too late.   You only put up with your girlfriend sleeping with other guys before you go looking for someone else.   Unless the Bills go deep into the playoffs with Taylor next season, and I can't see how that can happen, Taylor's leaving.   He'll have 3-4 good years left in his career, he'll have either a crappy offensive line or a brand new offensive line, or both, he'll have a coach who wants him to run an offense that isn't suited to him, and he'll have a four-year history with the Bills of the coaches and front office first telling him we love you, then we hate, then we sort of love you, then we hate you, "no wait, we really love you and we mean it this time."   Why would he sign up for more of that. 

Don't get wrong, I fully agree with this. But he is under contract. He's no free agent. If the Bills do keep him at much higher payscale, that IS a show of commitment for once. I'm sure TT can get a QB spot elsewhere, but maybe not at the amount he's due to make next year.

[BadLandsMeanie]

Ironically I am about to sign up for all 22 in order to study the film to find out how the Bills could be so BAD. I am actually going to pay, to watch this stuff again. I am learning some football from some of the guys on this board but I want to see this repeatedly in stop motion to look real close.

 

I don't understand how it could be all on the coaching and schemes because one thing McDermott did was to bring in a very highly respected and experienced coaching staff.

They may not be the newest and brightest coaching staff but this fall off a cliff shouldn't be happening.

 

 It looks to me too Shaw as if McDermott has lost the team. Or that something real bad has happened to morale. It would have to have been big to happen so fast. It is confusing.

 

So I will study the film.

 

I know one thing for sure from what little film I have seen. Which I will illustrate with a story.

 

John Madden told a story about when he was coaching Art Shell. During a game in which he played very well, and that the Raiders won, Art Shell missed one block which got the QB hit and sacked. In the locker room after during the boisterous celebration of victory, Madden looks over and he sees Art Shell crying.

 

So he goes over to Shell and he says what is the matter with you? Why are you crying?

 

Art Shell looks at him and chokes out the words "That block. I missed that block."

 

I know for sure that is not the attitude these players have. Except Tre White.

 

Anyway I will know more once I see the film I hope.

 

 

 

 

[Shaw66]

6 minutes ago, Jerome007 said:

Don't get wrong, I fully agree with this. But he is under contract. He's no free agent. If the Bills do keep him at much higher payscale, that IS a show of commitment for once. I'm sure TT can get a QB spot elsewhere, but maybe not at the amount he's due to make next year.

I know he's under contract.  I said he's leaving as soon as he becomes a free agent.   Since that is, I think, obvious, the Bills will start looking for his replacement in the upcoming draft, and drafting his replacement will seal the deal - Tyrod will leave after next season.  

 

And I think he'll ask for a trade or a release from his contract in the off-season.   If he's going to be a free agent,  he'd rather play next season where a team wants him and will build around him.   Nineteen QBs have higher average salaries than Taylor, which means 12 starting QBs are making less than Taylor, a lot less.  Some of the guys on that list, like Bradford and Glennon, are probably about to make a lot less money.  Some of them, like Roethlisberger and Palmer and Manning, will retire soon.   Plenty of teams will be looking for starting QBs, and they aren't all going to find them in the draft - there are probably 10 teams looking for a started and there may 2 or 3 starters in the draft.  The Pats will be looking for Brady's replacement.   Someone will sign Taylor.   He's better off taking $10 million for 2018 someplace where he has a future than taking $15 in Buffalo where there's no future, and he probably can get better than $10 million.   

24 minutes ago, BadLandsMeanie said:

Ironically I am about to sign up for all 22 in order to study the film to find out how the Bills could be so BAD. I am actually going to pay, to watch this stuff again. I am learning some football from some of the guys on this board but I want to see this repeatedly in stop motion to look real close.

 

I don't understand how it could be all on the coaching and schemes because one thing McDermott did was to bring in a very highly respected and experienced coaching staff.

They may not be the newest and brightest coaching staff but this fall off a cliff shouldn't be happening.

 

 It looks to me too Shaw as if McDermott has lost the team. Or that something real bad has happened to morale. It would have to have been big to happen so fast. It is confusing.

 

So I will study the film.

 

I know one thing for sure from what little film I have seen. Which I will illustrate with a story.

 

John Madden told a story about when he was coaching Art Shell. During a game in which he played very well, and that the Raiders won, Art Shell missed one block which got the QB hit and sacked. In the locker room after during the boisterous celebration of victory, Madden looks over and he sees Art Shell crying.

 

So he goes over to Shell and he says what is the matter with you? Why are you crying?

 

Art Shell looks at him and chokes out the words "That block. I missed that block."

 

I know for sure that is not the attitude these players have. Except Tre White.

 

Anyway I will know more once I see the film I hope.

 

 

 

 

I'm not sure how you can tell on film the difference between a team quitting and team just not being good enough.  Whether you've quit or aren't good enough, you're getting blocked just the same.   

 

The way you can tell is to compare some of the early wins to the last three games.   

 

My guess is that the Bills played over their heads early in the season, in part because their schemes were unknown to the opponents until they five or six weeks of film to look at and in part because McDermott had built the right attitude in their heads.   However, it's hard to maintain that gung-ho attitude when you stop getting the outcomes you want, and I think that's what's happened.  They've come back to earth, the good opposing coaches are outscheming them, and the Bills haven't been able to respond with schemes or talent.  

[Shaw66]

One more thing about Taylor.   Look at Carolina.

 

Two years ago they lost in the Super Bowl.   Last season, the coaches told Cam that they didn't want him running, they wanted him throwing from the pocket, etc.   Their season went in the shitter, for a variety of reasons. 

 

In the off-season Cam told the coaches "you have let me play my game."  They agreed.  He's leading all QBs in rushing by a lot.  And they're 7-3.

 

Now, Taylor is third in the league among Qbs, which isn't shabby, with two fewer carries per game than Newton.   What do you think would happen if Taylor went to his coaches and said "you have to let me play my game"?   

 

And, by the way, look at the list of QBs who have rushed for the most yards:  Newton, Wilson, Taylor, Watson, Prescott, Wentz are the first six.  Notice anything?   They are among the most successful young QBs in the league. They are part of the new wave of mobile QBs.  And, by the way, Andrew Luck and Aaron Rodgers regularly appeared near the top of the list in prior seasons.

 

Now, maybe McDermott is going to look at the season Cam is having and open his eyes.   Maybe he's going to fire Dennison and get some offensive genius out of some college to be the OC .   Then maybe he's going to go to Taylor and say "I'm sorry.  I've seen the light.   We're opening it up and turning you loose.   Please, please play 2018 with an open mind, and if you like what you see, tell me you'll be willing to stick around."   If I'm Taylor, I say, "sure, I'll play with an open mind."  In my head I'm thinking "the only way I'm staying past 2018 is if they write me a really big check, and they haven't been willing to do that yet."  And if I'm Taylor I'm looking very carefully at the Bills' 2018 draft.   They burn a high pick on a QB instead of an offensive tackle, I don't care what McDermott says, I'm moving on.  

[BadLandsMeanie]

I think it could be just as you say. We both know what poor play and low talent looks like. To me these past games look worse because of how badly the Bills are being beaten. I don't recall a consecutive series of losses where the team is outclassed to the extent that they could almost be a college team, they appear listless, and nobody seems to get mad.

Even stupid penalties for starting fights out of frustration, which really annoy me, would be a step up at this point.

 

 I think there may be behavioral cues in the film. Also I will try to find some people who sit behind the Bills bench to get an idea of how they seem during games.

 

 

[Shaw66]

57 minutes ago, BadLandsMeanie said:

I think it could be just as you say. We both know what poor play and low talent looks like. To me these past games look worse because of how badly the Bills are being beaten. I don't recall a consecutive series of losses where the team is outclassed to the extent that they could almost be a college team, they appear listless, and nobody seems to get mad.

Even stupid penalties for starting fights out of frustration, which really annoy me, would be a step up at this point.

 

 I think there may be behavioral cues in the film. Also I will try to find some people who sit behind the Bills bench to get an idea of how they seem during games.

 

 

Makes sense.  

 

I sat behind the Bills bench for the Jets game, and I don't recall any animated discussions.   McDermott and Frazier had a long talk, and it looked like McDermott did most of the talking, but it didn't look anything like a chewing out.   They could have talking retirement planning.  

 

Most of the coach/player discussions, so far as I recall, seemed very much to be governed by the "process" - it looked like quiet, rational talk about nuances of the game.   Like, "when the blocker knocks you down and steps on your chest as he's running downfield, get up run down the field after him so that you'll be ready to huddle up for the next play."

[BadLandsMeanie]

26 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Makes sense.  

 

I sat behind the Bills bench for the Jets game, and I don't recall any animated discussions.   McDermott and Frazier had a long talk, and it looked like McDermott did most of the talking, but it didn't look anything like a chewing out.   They could have talking retirement planning.  

 

Most of the coach/player discussions, so far as I recall, seemed very much to be governed by the "process" - it looked like quiet, rational talk about nuances of the game.   Like, "when the blocker knocks you down and steps on your chest as he's running downfield, get up run down the field after him so that you'll be ready to huddle up for the next play."

Ok thanks. It is going back four years but I sat behind the bench then and at that game Wood would come off the field totally charged up and was talking to all the linemen getting them stoked up and talking to them about technique and plans and such (from me reading the pantomime). Ironically it was a Jets game also.

 

Edited November 22, 2017 by BadLandsMeanie

[grb]

3 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Put yourself in Taylor's shoes and think about it.  

 

You're at your best in the passing offense when you're scrambling and when you're encouraged to run the ball when the opportunity arises.   You have a head coach who encourages you to play that way.   You played so well your first season that the Bills gave you a long-term contract.   After your second season, with a new head coach, the Bills say they're not so sure and renegotiate so they can get out of the long-term deal.   Then the new guy and his offensive coordinator tell you they want you to stay in the pocket, not to run.    Then your head coach benches you because he believes the guy behind you gives the team a better chance to win when you and all your teammates are thinking "uh, NO!"   

 

You're under contract for one more season.   You're doing your best to play from the pocket, even though (1) your best offensive lineman can't stay on the field, (2) your second best offensive lineman is likely to retire or move on soon, (3) your third best offensive lineman is just okay and (4) your other two offensive linemen wouldn't be starting on most NFL teams., maybe wouldn't even be on the roster.    So your coach doesn't like how you play and won't play to your strengths, the entire offensive line has to be rebuilt in the next two seasons, and you're going to be 30 when you become a free agent.   

 

Under those circumstances, what could your head coach possibly do or say to convince you that you want to be in a Bills uniform in 2019? 

 

Tyrod is counting the days until he get out of town.   His agent probably already has asked the Bills to trade or release him after this season ends.  

 

That's a pretty good summary, but I'd add this : The team traded off your primary target, only true number-one receiver and sole deep threat. Taylor made a point of saying his contract renegotiation allowed the team to add weapons. Now, I concede that was largely spin : He wasn't going to get long-term money elsewhere and a short term deal with the Bills set him up to play for a future deal. The team's offense in 2016 had performed reasonably well, and Taylor had to think that was a good foundation to shine this season. Instead, the new OC changes the run / blocking scheme, which (along with injuries) left the running attack a shell of it's former self. And the front office sold off talent in a fire sale, including Watkins - Taylor's main guy. Add weapons? Not a bit. Taylor may well believe he was played for a fool.

Edited November 22, 2017 by grb

[Shaw66]

12 minutes ago, grb said:

 

That's a pretty good summary, but I'd add this : The team traded off your primary target, only true number-one receiver and sole deep threat. Taylor made a point of saying his contract renegotiation allowed the team to add weapons. Now, I concede that was largely spin : He wasn't going to get long-term money elsewhere and a short term deal with the Bills set him up to play for a future deal. The team's offense in 2016 had performed reasonably well, and Taylor had to think that was a good foundation to shine this season. Instead, the new OC changes the run / blocking scheme, which (along with injuries) left the running attack a shell of it's former self. And the front office sold off talent in a fire sale, including Watkins - Taylor's main guy. Add weapons? Not a bit. Taylor may well believe he was played for a fool.

I agree.   I didn't go there because I'm shooting my mouth off too much any way, and there's a contrary argument that Matthews and Benjamin might be better for Taylor, given that they're two really good receivers to throw to when they're covered.   Still, I agree with you.   Remember, McCoy called Watkins the "Ferrari" for a reason, and every time the Ferrari was on the field, Taylor showed he knew what to do with him.   

 

It'll take a miracle for Taylor to stay.   Now, some people will say "fine, he should have been gone by now anyway and Prescott or Watson should have been the starter."  I get that.  But given where the Bills were two weeks ago, the best future for the Bills over the next three years was to build a team around Taylor.   That option is now gone.  

Edited November 22, 2017 by Shaw66

[y2zipper]

4 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I can argue with minor points, but overall what you say sounds right.  I've been blind to it for six months while some people have been saying it, but it very much looks like you say.

 

I defended Jauron for a long time, and I'll defend him here.   I think Jauron was a really smart guy with the wrong philosophy.   He was almost hopelessly conservative.   Now, maybe, if presented with a top-notch philosophy he would have a taken a different approach, but I think that conservatism was in his blood.  

 

BUT - I'll say this.   Jauron's teams never got blown out like the Bills have been for three weeks running.   Maybe Jauron's boys got run out of the stadium once in a while when they were playing the league's juggernaut, but other than that his teams actually stayed in the game.   This team hasn't forced a punt in 22 possessions.   Two 4-6 teams have beaten the Bills just as soundly as an 8-2 beat them.   That didn't happen to Jauron teams. 

 

I've gotten extraordinarily pessimistic about this coach very quickly.   Last week I said that before the Jets game McDermott was a leader in the race for coach of the year.   After the Saints game, he would be a shoe-in for coach of the year if he could turn it around and get to the playoffs.    Turning this around this season will take nothing short of a miracle.   Right now you have to conclude that McDermott is MUCH closer to failing as a head coach than taking a team to a Super Bowl.   

 

This echos my concern with the coaching regime. Getting blown out so much is more than a talent problem. This season it appears that teams have diagnosed the system and McDermott doesn't know how to adjust to what the other teams are doing. This and the lack of competitiveness are why I would say McDermott is coaching for his job right now. These things just don't take that much time.

 

 

[Shaw66]

6 minutes ago, y2zipper said:

 

This echos my concern with the coaching regime. Getting blown out so much is more than a talent problem. This season it appears that teams have diagnosed the system and McDermott doesn't know how to adjust to what the other teams are doing. This and the lack of competitiveness are why I would say McDermott is coaching for his job right now. These things just don't take that much time.

 

 

You may be right, but I don't think he's coaching for his job.   I wrote this somewhere:  I think the Pegulas knew when they hired a young coach and Gm that there were going to be mistakes and they'd have to be patient.   All head coaches say they learned a lot in their first season.   I think you have to give these guys three years, minimum, unless the Bills defense is getting blown off the field most every game between now and midseason 2018.   

[grb]

31 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I agree.   I didn't go there because I'm shooting my mouth off too much any way, and there's a contrary argument that Matthews and Benjamin might be better for Taylor, given that they're two really good receivers to throw to when they're covered.   Still, I agree with you.   Remember, McCoy called Watkins the "Ferrari" for a reason, and every time the Ferrari was on the field, Taylor showed he knew what to do with him.   

 

It'll take a miracle for Taylor to stay.   Now, some people will say "fine, he should have been gone by now anyway and Prescott or Watson should have been the starter."  I get that.  But given where the Bills were two weeks ago, the best future for the Bills over the next three years was to build a team around Watson.   That option is now gone.  

 

A few weeks back I thought it was obvious Taylor would stay. Yes, the Bills would draft a first-round QB regardless, but McBeane wouldn't want to stake his development - and their careers - on throwing him in the pool to learn swimming. Taylor is due a pretty reasonable starter's salary in '18, particularly since there is a pay-out needed to cut ties anyway. It made sense, with the only caveat being Peterman - who might look good enough to bide the team over while their golden boy matured.

 

All that still seems legit, and Peterman look less likely now as a trusted fail-safe. But now I feel Taylor is gone. McBeane will dump Taylor as a matter of face. After all, one of the easiest ways to deal with unease over treating someone like dirt is to continue treating them even worse. That way they "earned" the first go-round. Sordid human psychology 101.  So it will be Peterman, a veteran burnout, and the shiny-new Number One. It might work out - but it could be a disaster. And if things go south, McBeane could find themselves in a bad way. In this millennium I think Bills' coaches and GMs last about 2.75 years on average. 

Edited November 22, 2017 by grb

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, grb said:

 

A few weeks back I thought it was obvious Taylor would stay. Yes, the Bills would draft a first-round QB regardless, but McBeane wouldn't want to stake his development - and their careers - on throwing him in the pool to learn swimming. Taylor is due a pretty reasonable starter's salary in '18, particularly since there is a pay-out needed to cut ties anyway. It made sense, with the only caveat being Peterman - who might look good enough to bide the team over while their golden boy matured.

 

All that still seems legit, and Peterman look less likely now as a trusted fail-safe. But now I feel Taylor is gone. McBeane will dump Taylor as a matter of face. After all, one of the easiest ways to deal with unease over treating someone like dirt is to continue treating them even worse. That way they "earned" the first go-round. Sordid human psychology 101.  So it will be Peterman, a veteran burnout, and the shiny-new Number One. It might work out - but it could be a disaster. And if things go south, McBeane could find themselves in a bad way. In this millennium I think Bills' coaches and GMs last about 2.75 years on average. 

My thinking was similar, except that the scenario a few weeks ago left room for the continuing improvement of Taylor, so that there'd be a QB controversy in 2019 or 2020 - Taylor or the new guy (like Alex Smith and Mahomes).   That's a much better place to be than betting the ranch on the new guy.   Plus, now they have to go up to get a new guy who looks like a starter now, instead of taking a guy later in the first or second and developing him.  

[Hapless Bills Fan]

On 11/21/2017 at 8:33 AM, mead107 said:

To the pit of misery.  Dilly Dilly 

 

May we re-name New Era Field and try to take it viral?

 

New Era Field is now Pit of Misery.

 

Dilly Dilly.

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

May we re-name New Era Field and try to take it viral?

 

New Era Field is now Pit of Misery.

 

Dilly Dilly.

I like it!   We can start it right here.   From now it's the Pit of Misery for me!

[BadLandsMeanie]

I'm sorry that you had to endure the horrors on the road to where you are at Shaw. But I like this change in you!

[Shaw66]

1 minute ago, BadLandsMeanie said:

I'm sorry that you had to endure the horrors on the road to where you are at Shaw. But I like this change in you!

Wouldn't you prefer if the Bills were 7-3 and we all were happy?

 

Next week I drive 6 and half hours to see the Patriots.   What a joy. 

[BadLandsMeanie]

13 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Wouldn't you prefer if the Bills were 7-3 and we all were happy?

 

Next week I drive 6 and half hours to see the Patriots.   What a joy. 

Yes very much so.

But since we are of the Untouchable caste, figuratively speaking among NFL fans, accept and adapt is my strategy. 

 

I have had the impression that you have been very unwilling to question authority or expertise when it comes to the Bills and their coaches.

 

I like it better when you don't set your opinion aside as automatically less valid.

 

Rock on Shaw I say!

 

PS That Pats are going to slaughter us. Better I think to just enjoy watching one of the greatest of all time perform surgery on our secondary live and in person.  I did that once so I am not saying you should do it but I couldn't. And it is a lifetime fond memory just having got to watch him because he is so good at that.

Edited November 23, 2017 by BadLandsMeanie

[Shaw66]

14 minutes ago, BadLandsMeanie said:

Yes very much so.

But since we are of the Untouchable caste, figuratively speaking among NFL fans, accept and adapt is my strategy. 

 

I have had the impression that you have been very unwilling to question authority or expertise when it comes to the Bills and their coaches.

 

I like it better when you don't set your opinion aside as automatically less valid.

 

Rock on Shaw I say!

 

PS That Pats are going to slaughter us. Better I think to just enjoy watching one of the greatest of all time perform surgery on our secondary live and in person.  I did that once so I am not saying you should do it but I couldn't. And it is a lifetime fond memory just having got to watch him because he is so good at that.

I think you and others misunderstand me.   Yes, it's true I tend to put a lot of confidence in coaching and management, because I've learned over the years that people with experience generally are better in their field than people without experience.   Like Clinton, Obama and Trump, all amateurs who stumbled along in the White House, trying to figure it out.  

 

So what I generally try to do is try to figure out why a rational person with a lot of experience as a head football coach would decide to do what he did.   In most cases I come up with a theory that I'm comfortable explains why he did it.   That doesn't mean what the coach did was right; it just means I have some insight into why he did it.   

 

As we've talked about the Peterman start, the awful three-game performance and the Dareus and Benjamin trades, I've concluded there simply isn't a rational explanation for all of that other than horribly bad judgment.    I'll repeat what I've been saying:

 

It looked to me that what Beane and McDermott were doing was following a plan that went like this:   Teach guys the system this year, while they're weeding out some guys who don't fit.   In the process of weeding, pick up some draft picks.   Next May, use the picks to fill several holes.   Along the way, pick up a QB prospect, but plan to play Taylor in 2018 and, if all goes well, in 2019 and 2020.   When they conclude Taylor has hit his ceiling, decide whether to move on or not.   Their hope and expectation was to build from 7-9 or so into a playoff team.   If they got there this year, great, but if it took another year, that's fine.  

 

I know there are plenty of people who didn't like that plan, because they want Taylor gone.  But that was the only rational plan I could see short of blowing things up, and it seemed to be McD and Bean were on that path.    

 

What they've done, I think, is burn the live-with-Tyrod bridge, which means they need a QB now, which means they don't get to fill the holes because they have to seriously consider moving up in the draft next May.  If they do that, they don't have the capital to fill the holes.  That seems to me to be a much worse plan.   

In short, until they benched Tyrod, they had left themselves the option of moving forward with Taylor.  It's always better to have options.   

[BadLandsMeanie]

2 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I think you and others misunderstand me.   Yes, it's true I tend to put a lot of confidence in coaching and management, because I've learned over the years that people with experience generally are better in their field than people without experience.   Like Clinton, Obama and Trump, all amateurs who stumbled along in the White House, trying to figure it out.  

 

So what I generally try to do is try to figure out why a rational person with a lot of experience as a head football coach would decide to do what he did.   In most cases I come up with a theory that I'm comfortable explains why he did it.   That doesn't mean what the coach did was right; it just means I have some insight into why he did it.   

 

As we've talked about the Peterman start, the awful three-game performance and the Dareus and Benjamin trades, I've concluded there simply isn't a rational explanation for all of that other than horribly bad judgment.    I'll repeat what I've been saying:

 

It looked to me that what Beane and McDermott were doing was following a plan that went like this:   Teach guys the system this year, while they're weeding out some guys who don't fit.   In the process of weeding, pick up some draft picks.   Next May, use the picks to fill several holes.   Along the way, pick up a QB prospect, but plan to play Taylor in 2018 and, if all goes well, in 2019 and 2020.   When they conclude Taylor has hit his ceiling, decide whether to move on or not.   Their hope and expectation was to build from 7-9 or so into a playoff team.   If they got there this year, great, but if it took another year, that's fine.  

 

I know there are plenty of people who didn't like that plan, because they want Taylor gone.  But that was the only rational plan I could see short of blowing things up, and it seemed to be McD and Bean were on that path.    

 

What they've done, I think, is burn the live-with-Tyrod bridge, which means they need a QB now, which means they don't get to fill the holes because they have to seriously consider moving up in the draft next May.  If they do that, they don't have the capital to fill the holes.  That seems to me to be a much worse plan.   

In short, until they benched Tyrod, they had left themselves the option of moving forward with Taylor.  It's always better to have options.   

 

I know your take on what you do. I understand that and you have said it before so it isn't new to me.

 

You might say you construct a theory that fits the facts  that we know.

 

I think you are more like a defense attorney. You have a built in approach that the client is innocent. And you construct a story incorporating the known facts that supports that conclusion. Those are similar but not the same.

 

For whatever it is worth I thought the plan was to have Peterman start next year and have the QB they get this year learn behind him. It is 16 million dollars cheaper and lets them assemble a roster that fits their vision for the offense.  It also gives them two guys who might win out as a long term starter instead of just teh one they draft this year.

 

I think that plan, if it ever was a plan,  is in trouble too.

[Ayjent]

12 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I never really thought much about it, but I think you're absolutely correct about this.   Fans complained that Jauron's philosophy was "playing not to lose," and McDermott is very much in the same mold.   Bend don't dreak defense, conservative offense to run the clock, keep the game close so that you have a shot to win in the end.   In retrospect, the Jaguars game told us all we needed to know.   McDermott didn't open up the offense until literally the last drive or two.  It was completely clear that he was content to be behind so long as he trailed by less than two scores.   Then, late in the game, he opened up the offense and the Bills actually threatened to tie it.   In the following weeks, we saw the same things.  

 

That's a good philosophy to follow when your team isn't competitive in the talent category.    Play conservatively and hope for something good to happen.   Maybe that's all that happened in the first seven games:  maybe the Bills were just lucky, catching the Falcons when they were stumbling around, catching Denver when THEIR wheels were falling off.  Maybe it was just luck.   And maybe Beane and McD knew it.   And maybe they traded Dareus intending to tank.   And maybe they started Peterman because they  knew the season already was in the crapper.   I'd be okay with that, but then why in the world would you trade a second for Benjamin?   If you believe you're in total rebuild mode, you don't make that move.  

 

You know what's really maddening about this, from the offensive side?   Rex comes in and says it's going to be ground and pound.   He brings in a run-oriented offensive coordinator.   One game into his second season, he fires the offensive coordinator, the Bills open up the offense, at least relatively speaking, and the offense flourishes, at least relatively speaking.  McD comes in and brings in a run-oriented offensive coordinator who takes away much of what Taylor does best and asks him to succeed doing the things he isn't so so good at.   And what is that ?  It's staying in the pocket.   And you know what's amazing about that?   Look around the league - offensive lines all over the league are struggling to protect their QBs in the pocket, and everyone is saying you need a mobile QB to win.  New England is the only exception.   Rodgers, Brees, Luck, Mariota, Tannehill, Wilson, Watson, Smith - those are the kind of QBs everyone wants.   Eli, Palmer, Flacco - those are the guys you don't want.   So McD brings him an OC and gives him a QB who fits  the current model, and the OC installs an offense designed to restrict the QB's mobility. 

 

Jauron at least had an excuse.   He didn't have a QB.   

Jauronic: playing not to lose with highly motivated, but marginally talented players.  

 

I hate to agree with this line of thought but there is absolutely nothing that is aggressive or adaptive about this team except it’s desire to move players from the previous regime, and it does seem a lot like history repeating itself.  I was skeptical about this hire,especially the staff put together and the jettisoning of players.  Then they looked like they might just know what they are doing collectively although nothing made you feel like things were stable, but we’ve watched the Pats do this smoke and mirror act for years where guys just come together as a team and start playing well together.  maybe we had our own guy capable of that as well...nope. 

[Shaw66]

29 minutes ago, BadLandsMeanie said:

 

I know your take on what you do. I understand that and you have said it before so it isn't new to me.

 

You might say you construct a theory that fits the facts  that we know.

 

I think you are more like a defense attorney. You have a built in approach that the client is innocent. And you construct a story incorporating the known facts that supports that conclusion. Those are similar but not the same.

 

For whatever it is worth I thought the plan was to have Peterman start next year and have the QB they get this year learn behind him. It is 16 million dollars cheaper and lets them assemble a roster that fits their vision for the offense.  It also gives them two guys who might win out as a long term starter instead of just teh one they draft this year.

 

I think that plan, if it ever was a plan,  is in trouble too.

Yeah that's a fair characterization of what I do, except when I disagree with my client I say so.  

 

What you say about Peterman is a fair plan not in consistent with what I said.  Go with Taylor and look for your replacement.  

 

I thought they were riding in a motor boat looking for a speed boat.  Peterman might have been the speed boat or some player to be named later.  What McDermot just did is Jump Out of the motor boat with no other boat in sight. I can't defend that. 

Edited November 23, 2017 by Shaw66

[BadLandsMeanie]

21 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Yeah that's a fair characterization of what I do, except when I disagree with my client I say so.  

 

What you say about Peterman is a fair plan not in consistent with what I said.  Go with Taylor and look for your replacement.  

 

I thought they were riding in a motor boat looking for a speed boat.  Peterman might have been the speed boat or some player to be named later.  What McDermot just did is Jump Out of the motor boat with no other boat in sight. I can't defend that. 

If Shaw can't defend it, it must be pretty hard to defend.

 

I think he may have put a monkey on Peterman's back too.

 

If you make a decision like he did, you really have to be right. He was far from right and to do that so early in his tenure was a very risky thing.  I don't see what the payoff he was picturing  would be. If you bet a lot you want to win a lot. Did he suppose Peterman was going to take us the the playoffs? 

 

It seems like he thought he had his speedboat but it turned out to be a rubber duck.

 

Very puzzling. I think as a class of people, NFL players and coaches are really bad at at anticipating and planning for failure. Always thinking positive has a down side. They didn't even seem to have plan for if things started to go wrong for Peterman out there. 

 

Why not wait until our fate was decided and if we were out of "the hunt"  then stick Peterman in there?

 

Oh well. I have signed up for the films I will take a look over the next couple days and see if I spot anything useful.

Edited November 23, 2017 by BadLandsMeanie

[oldmanfan]

Shaw, you are way over exaggerating the consequences of one decision.  If anything can be said about McDermott, it is that he thinks before making decisions.  And he made a decision that he himself referred to as a calculated risk with Peterman.  Why?  Because he felt it gave the team- the team- a better chance to win.  I like TT myself but guys like Benoit on si.com talked about how he was missing open guys.  So he made a decision, and it didn't work out.

 

Now if it were just ego he'd hang with that decision.  But he had the sense to realize the decision was wrong, and now goes back to TT because he realizes putting Peterman back in, in a hostile place like Arrowhead, would be wrong.  And that TT gives them the best chance to win, even given his limitations

 

What about other decisions?  Again it's about team.  And they are consistent with what he and Beane have said for quite a while now; they have a short and a long term view.  So Dareus.  Long term they knew his performance/attitude did not merit his huge cap number.  It may have affected our D now but even when Dareus was not on the field earlier this season they played well.  So given that it did not seem a huge short term risk.  Benjamin?  Simple, had an opportunity to get a big target that helped short and long term, and a guy they knew from Carolina.

 

i question other personnel decisions, like why Ducasse starts.  I'm also not at practice every day.  I question Dennison and his philosophy; I like you would like to see them move TT around.  But I've complained about O coordinators since Buster Ramsey ran things. (And his first choice is now back on the market??).  And for the life of me I can't figure out what happened to the defense.

 

Bottom line going forward is this:  we have a young coach that was on the list of coordinators from the NFL ready for his shot. You have a young GM also ready, and the two are in synch with what they want to do.  Beane said when he got here you can't win without the star QB.  I have no doubt they draft one this year.  And I think they'll sit him behind Peterman next year.  I think they'll also focus on front seven on D and O line in the draft and FA because they know games are won in the trenches.  Beane has amassed a lot of solid personnel guys on his staff, and hopefully that translates to a good draft and good FA picks.  

 

Three weeks ago ago no one was complaining.  Now they've run into a bad stretch.  And the HC made a risky choice last week that didn't pan out.  It won't be the last time either.  Let's let the process work, because ultimately as much as people mock "the process" successful organizations all have processes they define and follow.  Or they're not successful.

[Billsfan1972]

19 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I didn't think he was rebuilding in the classic sense of the word.   I thought he was transitioning.   

 

It's all about Taylor.   I think the Bills could win with Taylor while they were looking for someone better.  As I said, use the six picks in the 2018 draft to get some talent, bring a couple of free agents with the money you're not spending on Gilmore and Watkins and compete in the league.   That approach could have worked over the next season or two AND made the Bills really good by 2020, maybe with Taylor as your quarterback, maybe not.  

 

You can't follow that plan when you know that 2018 will be Tyrod's last season in Buffalo.   Now you MUST go looking for a replacement for him.   That won't be a free agent, so you have to do it in the draft.   So many teams are looking for QBs that now you have to be prepared to burn two or three or four good picks to get a QB NOW so that he can be your starter in 2020.  On top of that, instead of being a team perceived to be on the rise, the Bills are a team perceived to be rebuilding, so their ability to sign quality free agents, and especially quality free agents in the $2-$5 million per year range is diminished.   The only way free agents are coming is if they're getting top dollar from the Bills.   

 

In short, I think the Bills have abandoned a possible route to success and now are a total unknown for the next three years.   Can these guys evaluate talent?  I don't know.   Even near the top of the draft, getting a QB is a crapshoot, so the Bills could draft a guy who turns out to be LESS productive than Tyrod.    The ENTIRE future of the Bills now depends on McDermott and Beane, and ther now are HUGE questions about whether they know they're doing:  How could they not know that Peterman wasn't ready?   How could they not know that they couldn't afford to lose Dareus for the second half of the season?   If they knew their talent was bad and they started Peterman and traded Dareus because they had given up on the season and were looking ahead, how could they decide to give up a valuable pick to add a stud pass receiver to a team going nowhere?   

 

They didn't say they were rebuilding, and I didn't think they were.   But they are now.,  

I feel terrible for not following this thread and continually bogged down in others.

 

Very smart discussion here.

 

I never bought the Beane, McDermott Koolaid.  All I asked was for a chance to see if Taylor was a good Qb.  Putting in an offensive scheme no one run successfully drives me crazy.  The countless posts & threads that I've made explaining that to be good you need a passing offense capable of 250+ yards/wk and not just when trying to come back.

 

I was excited at the idea of Watkins finally being thrown to (4 straight passes in the preseason game) and healthy, a good prospect in Jones, Clay and veteran in Boldin said maybe they were turning the corner.

 

Then they blew it up and started the "Selling the Future" line.  How a team that has been between 7-9 & 9-7 the past # of years sold fans that it is better we go 4-12, then aim for the playoffs (17 years and counting) is preposterous and turned me off the team early this year.

 

The Carolina game was beyond frustrating as Watkins & Boldin definitely would have made a difference (as they too would have vs. Cincy).

 

SO now I'm back to false hope with Tyrod back in that they will be pissed and they'll actually take chances.  

 

Ready to be disappointed again.

[Shaw66]

3 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

Shaw, you are way over exaggerating the consequences of one decision.  If anything can be said about McDermott, it is that he thinks before making decisions.  And he made a decision that he himself referred to as a calculated risk with Peterman.  Why?  Because he felt it gave the team- the team- a better chance to win.  I like TT myself but guys like Benoit on si.com talked about how he was missing open guys.  So he made a decision, and it didn't work out.

 

Now if it were just ego he'd hang with that decision.  But he had the sense to realize the decision was wrong, and now goes back to TT because he realizes putting Peterman back in, in a hostile place like Arrowhead, would be wrong.  And that TT gives them the best chance to win, even given his limitations

 

What about other decisions?  Again it's about team.  And they are consistent with what he and Beane have said for quite a while now; they have a short and a long term view.  So Dareus.  Long term they knew his performance/attitude did not merit his huge cap number.  It may have affected our D now but even when Dareus was not on the field earlier this season they played well.  So given that it did not seem a huge short term risk.  Benjamin?  Simple, had an opportunity to get a big target that helped short and long term, and a guy they knew from Carolina.

 

i question other personnel decisions, like why Ducasse starts.  I'm also not at practice every day.  I question Dennison and his philosophy; I like you would like to see them move TT around.  But I've complained about O coordinators since Buster Ramsey ran things. (And his first choice is now back on the market??).  And for the life of me I can't figure out what happened to the defense.

 

Bottom line going forward is this:  we have a young coach that was on the list of coordinators from the NFL ready for his shot. You have a young GM also ready, and the two are in synch with what they want to do.  Beane said when he got here you can't win without the star QB.  I have no doubt they draft one this year.  And I think they'll sit him behind Peterman next year.  I think they'll also focus on front seven on D and O line in the draft and FA because they know games are won in the trenches.  Beane has amassed a lot of solid personnel guys on his staff, and hopefully that translates to a good draft and good FA picks.  

 

Three weeks ago ago no one was complaining.  Now they've run into a bad stretch.  And the HC made a risky choice last week that didn't pan out.  It won't be the last time either.  Let's let the process work, because ultimately as much as people mock "the process" successful organizations all have processes they define and follow.  Or they're not successful.

 

I'm often wrong, so this won't be the first time.  And frankly, I've been thinking as I write that I maybe making too big a deal about it.   But I don't think so.  

 

Two things I could be wrong about.   One is that maybe he hasn't burned the bridge to Tyrod staying in Buffalo beyond his contract.  Maybe Tyrod will be a really big man and say it's okay, let's see how it goes.   I doubt it.   He's been dumped on repeatedly since McDermott took over, and he doesn't have much reason to believe it will change.   

 

The other is that maybe McDermott and Beane have decided to move on from Tyrod, they knew that benching him would mark the beginning of the end of Tyrod in Buffalo, and they're okay with that.  If they thought that, then I disagree with the decision but at least they understood the consequences.  I disagree because I think you don't get rid of your best quarterback until you have a better one on board, and the Bills are very far from having a better QB on board.  Tyrod is the best QB the Bills have had since Bledsoe, maybe since Kelly.  

 

I think this decision forces the Bills to bet the ranch on a franchise QB rookie in the upcoming draft.   Last time the Bills were forced to take a QB because they had no one they got Manuel.  It's much better to be shopping for something when you don't absolutely need the thing.   

[Shaw66]

Some decisions are bigger than other decisions, and some have more far reaching consequences than others.  

 

I think starting Peterman had significant long-term consequences.   It was more than let's play the guy for a game and see what happens.  It was more because it's the most important position.  It sent a message to Taylor.   It sent messages to all the other guys on the team.  What does he do now?  Stand in front of the team and say "I made a bad decision.  It's clear now, and should have been clear then, that Peterman isn't ready"?   Can't really say that without dissing Peterman in front of the team, which is a coaching no-no.  "I made a mistake, and I'm telling you now Tyrod is my guy"?   Can't say that because you've said it before, and you obviously didn't mean it before.   

 

Start the wrong guy at safety, fine, you just move on.   Start the wrong guy at QB, it has consequences.  

[Hapless Bills Fan]

21 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

In short, I think the Bills have abandoned a possible route to success and now are a total unknown for the next three years.   Can these guys evaluate talent?  I don't know.   Even near the top of the draft, getting a QB is a crapshoot, so the Bills could draft a guy who turns out to be LESS productive than Tyrod.    The ENTIRE future of the Bills now depends on McDermott and Beane, and ther now are HUGE questions about whether they know they're doing:  How could they not know that Peterman wasn't ready?   How could they not know that they couldn't afford to lose Dareus for the second half of the season?   If they knew their talent was bad and they started Peterman and traded Dareus because they had given up on the season and were looking ahead, how could they decide to give up a valuable pick to add a stud pass receiver to a team going nowhere?  

 

Shaw does a beautiful job of spelling out the contradictions in McWrestler and Mr Beane's approach that lead some of us to question whether they know what they're doing.  If you want to tank, Tank - but in that case, why not trade (or release, rather than renegotiate) Taylor and trade Dareus in the off season before cheapening his stock with benchings and dis-talk?  On the other hand, if you want to rebuild while winning now, why not tailor the offense to Taylor's strengths instead of insisting he become something he's not?

 

Why start a rookie on the road, when you're 5-4, then after he craps the bed, go back to the benched guy saying "we're in the hunt"?  (there's a story about the soprano Bev "Bubbles" Stills gleefully accepting a future "dream role" offered during a phone call - then calling the director back 5 minutes later to decline: "I can't, I'm pregnant".  To which the director replied, rather stunned, "weren't you pregnant 5 minutes ago?").  If you really didn't know he would crap the bed....see above question, how could they not know Peterman wasn't ready?

 

Maybe there's a master plan and process behind all this, but from here it just looks like a Hot Mess with a side helping of Bad Player e v a l Judgement.

Edited November 23, 2017 by Hapless Bills Fan