Article on why 2017 passing game can make giant leap forward

[Thurman#1]

t

Round and round and round we go Thurm. The argument you're making to the deep portion of the field is getting ridiculous. Google PFF's passing charts for different QBs and you're trying to bicker about a very tiny handful of passes... because that's all they are.

You're right, QBs rarely go deep. And safeties are typically in the middle of the field. That's why, by percentage, the deep middle is the most avoided zone by the vast majority of NFL QBs.

 

Are they a small handful of plays for every QB? Yeah. Deep passes are a small handful of passes. But they're extremely important. I get why you're trying to ignore that, after all it hurts your argument. Nonetheless, it has the logical problem for your contention that it's, you know, true. Deep passes are where most chunk plays come from, and effective deep passing games make short and intermediate pass games more effective, as small as their actual numbers are.

 

But again, you keep arguing about the middle of the field ... but again, the only numbers we know from the middle third of the field show the exact opposite of what you're saying, that Brady and Rivers did just the opposite of ignoring the deep middle. That they in fact threw about a third of their deep passes to the deep middle. Unlike Tyrod who didn't. Making Brady and Rivers hard to predict and defense and Tyrod easier.

 

 

Oh sure, there might be random years where a Tom Brady or a Phillip Rivers throws more than normal there by percentage. But that equates to no more than a handful of passes.

Google the passing charts I mentioned from PFF, you're going to see Taylor going to the deep middle by percentage more than Brady or Wilson (on at least the ones I found). But even that doesn't matter because it's literally a few passes we're talking about.

 

 

I see, so you're saying that the only facts we have on the middle third of the field, the Brady, Rivers and Tyrod Taylor 2015 stats, are anomalous. Fine. Start counting and prove it. But we both know you're not going to do that. The only facts we have on the exact area in question show a problem for Tyrod. You can't just assume those facts are anomalous for no better reason than that you don't like what they show. The only way to prove your contention here is to start counting individual plays. Neither of us are willing to spend the time to do that. So we're left with only the facts that we have. Which support my argument and completely undermine yours.

 

As we both know, I've already googled your charts. And for the thousandth time, the charts you're talking about are the wrong charts. The word around the league on Tyrod is that he can't and doesn't throw to the middle of the field. The reason people think that is because when you watch the games you see he doesn't throw to the middle third. Even the coaches last offseason talked about wanting to get Tyrod throwing to the middle of the field. This isn't made up. This is a thing.

 

There are no charts for that because it takes a ton of effort to look at it. Infinitely easier to look at visual markers on the field, hashes and numbers. That's why people divide the field up that way, not because it makes sense but because it's easy to count. But looking at those charts ignores Tyrod's issues.

 

Looking at those charts to try to understand Tyrod's problems is like the old joke about the cop who sees a drunk at night crawling around looking at the ground under a streetlight. The cop says "What are you doing?" and the drunk says, "I'm looking for my keys." The cop says, "Oh, you dropped them here?" and the drunk says "No, I dropped them a couple of blocks over." The cop says, "Why are you looking here then? Why don't you look where you dropped them?" And the drunk says, "The light's better here."

 

You keep trying to find Tyrod's problem under the streetlight (your charts) because the light's better. But the problem's over where the light is worse. You'll never see the problem, and not because there isn't one but because you refuse to look in the right place.

 

Tyrod's problem is with the ... middle ... third ... of the field. None of your charts address that area. In fact, they cover up the stats for those areas with completions from Tyrod's strength, the outside thirds.

 

 

Round and round and round we go Thurm. The argument you're making to the deep portion of the field is getting ridiculous. Google PFF's passing charts for different QBs and

And if you still so desperately want to argue the ineptitude of Taylor to the deep middle in comparison to his peers, well, be my guest.


As for those ESPN splits I included, the Bills were dead last in the NFL in YAC and 30th in the NFL in terms of YAC/reception. Pretty simple logic that the fact that Taylor has the 3rd highest YPA on that list is a damn good sign that he's throwing the ball quite a bit to the deep and intermediate middle in comparison to his peers and pretty darn effectively, as well:flirt:

 

 

Yup, keep looking under that streetlight. Don't be surprised if you don't find anything, though.

 

And I don't know what YPA charts you're referring to, but Tyrod's YPA last year was 6.9. Which is simply bad. 25th in the league. Don't know how you figure bad YPA like that proves he's throwing well deep to any area whatsoever.

Edited July 14, 2017 by Thurman#1

[Bangarang]

Can you refer to the article and my previous posts in the thread on this subject, please? Don't feel like typing it out again.

Which article? The one in your original post? I saw that one but wasn't sure if you posted any others since I haven't been too involved in this thread.

[transplantbillsfan]

Thurm, find me a single time an NFL coach has ever referred to the "middle third" of the field and I'll concede.

 

I've seen "between the hash marks" and "inside" or "outside the numbers," all of which we have numbers for to various degrees.

 

You say:

As we both know, I've already googled your charts. And for the thousandth time, the charts you're talking about are the wrong charts. The word around the league on Tyrod is that he can't and doesn't throw to the middle of the field. The reason people think that is because when you watch the games you see he doesn't throw to the middle third. Even the coaches last offseason talked about wanting to get Tyrod throwing to the middle of the field. This isn't made up. This is a thing.

 

and then you go on to lump "deep" and "middle third" into this whole thing as though it's clearly implicit in what the coaches say when it's not.

 

So go find a coach talking about "middle third" since, apparently, as you say, this is a thing.

[grb]

but again, the only numbers we know from the middle third of the field show the exact opposite of what you're saying, that Brady and Rivers did just the opposite of ignoring the deep middle. That they in fact threw about a third of their deep passes to the deep middle. Unlike Tyrod who didn't. Making Brady and Rivers hard to predict and defense and Tyrod easier.

 

And I don't know what YPA charts you're referring to, but Tyrod's YPA last year was 6.9. Which is simply bad. 25th in the league. Don't know how you figure bad YPA like that proves he's throwing well deep to any area whatsoever.

 

OK - Some questions & a point :

 

Questions : Does anyone have any real numbers on this? I hear Taylor has a "problem" throwing to the middle. Worse still, he "refuses" to throw to the middle. The latter is obviously wrong to anyone who watched a game but that doesn't prevent it from being a frequent comment here. Now, by the numbers Taylor throws less to the middle, but so does every quarterback. He uses the middle of the field less than average, but given the smaller numbers - Taylor's attempts & the average QB's middle throws - the difference prorates to only plus-minus 2-3 throws a game. So it's an area where his game can improve but hardly a crippling flaw. Then along comes Thurman#1, who says a subset of these already small numbers is the real issue. I just have a very hard time understanding how that can be true. I wonder whether it's typical of any NFL quarterback to take a long shot down the middle of the field - much less a completed bomb. Will this whole debate devolve to a single attempt per game? If not, how many attempts per game, compared to NFL averages? How many completions? The only solid numbers I'm hearing takes two exceptional QBs - Brady & Rivers - then tallies their deep pass attempts and divides by three. I'm not sure what that number is - or even how relevant it is.

 

Point : Production-wise, there's a big difference between Taylor playing with a legit Number 1&2 receiver rather than otherwise. He had both Watkins and Woods together only about half the games he started with the Bills and everything was significantly better - TDs, completion percent, interception percent - when that was the case. But one of the largest deltas was YPA. With Watkins & Woods he averaged about eight yards per attempt - a rate that would put him in the top five QBs per the 2016 season stats. Without one or both of them (particularly Watkins), that number dropped precipitously. Now, you can sympathize with Taylor for being a second year starter playing with receivers brought in off the street - or you can criticize him for not adapting better - and growing tentative with the ends he had to work with. There's probably truth in both positions. But he is clearly not a captain-checkoff-style quarterback. Whatever his problems, that's not one of his limitations.

Edited July 14, 2017 by grb

[GunnerBill]

Tyrod does miss receivers in the middle of the field but he misses open receivers on the outside too. I don't think it is a middle of a field issue so much as it is either a reluctance to throw the ball or he doesn't read the field well enough. I think upon studying the tape it is the latter, but I can't be sure. It is an educated guess. I don't really care which it is... I just want him to improve on it.

[transplantbillsfan]

t

 

Are they a small handful of plays for every QB? Yeah. Deep passes are a small handful of passes. But they're extremely important. I get why you're trying to ignore that, after all it hurts your argument. Nonetheless, it has the logical problem for your contention that it's, you know, true. Deep passes are where most chunk plays come from, and effective deep passing games make short and intermediate pass games more effective, as small as their actual numbers are.

 

But again, you keep arguing about the middle of the field ... but again, the only numbers we know from the middle third of the field show the exact opposite of what you're saying, that Brady and Rivers did just the opposite of ignoring the deep middle. That they in fact threw about a third of their deep passes to the deep middle. Unlike Tyrod who didn't. Making Brady and Rivers hard to predict and defense and Tyrod easier.

 

 

 

 

I see, so you're saying that the only facts we have on the middle third of the field, the Brady, Rivers and Tyrod Taylor 2015 stats, are anomalous. Fine. Start counting and prove it. But we both know you're not going to do that. The only facts we have on the exact area in question show a problem for Tyrod. You can't just assume those facts are anomalous for no better reason than that you don't like what they show. The only way to prove your contention here is to start counting individual plays. Neither of us are willing to spend the time to do that. So we're left with only the facts that we have. Which support my argument and completely undermine yours.

 

As we both know, I've already googled your charts. And for the thousandth time, the charts you're talking about are the wrong charts. The word around the league on Tyrod is that he can't and doesn't throw to the middle of the field. The reason people think that is because when you watch the games you see he doesn't throw to the middle third. Even the coaches last offseason talked about wanting to get Tyrod throwing to the middle of the field. This isn't made up. This is a thing.

 

There are no charts for that because it takes a ton of effort to look at it. Infinitely easier to look at visual markers on the field, hashes and numbers. That's why people divide the field up that way, not because it makes sense but because it's easy to count. But looking at those charts ignores Tyrod's issues.

 

Looking at those charts to try to understand Tyrod's problems is like the old joke about the cop who sees a drunk at night crawling around looking at the ground under a streetlight. The cop says "What are you doing?" and the drunk says, "I'm looking for my keys." The cop says, "Oh, you dropped them here?" and the drunk says "No, I dropped them a couple of blocks over." The cop says, "Why are you looking here then? Why don't you look where you dropped them?" And the drunk says, "The light's better here."

 

You keep trying to find Tyrod's problem under the streetlight (your charts) because the light's better. But the problem's over where the light is worse. You'll never see the problem, and not because there isn't one but because you refuse to look in the right place.

 

Tyrod's problem is with the ... middle ... third ... of the field. None of your charts address that area. In fact, they cover up the stats for those areas with completions from Tyrod's strength, the outside thirds.

 

 

 

 

Yup, keep looking under that streetlight. Don't be surprised if you don't find anything, though.

 

And I don't know what YPA charts you're referring to, but Tyrod's YPA last year was 6.9. Which is simply bad. 25th in the league. Don't know how you figure bad YPA like that proves he's throwing well deep to any area whatsoever.

Wow Thurm... streetlight, huh?

 

Glad I can just laugh this off and not view it as a petty, offensive, arrogant and pretentious post.

 

To your last question, look at those numbers to "the middle" according to ESPN's splits. Taylor's YPA between the hashmarks is 8.7, not 6.9. Try retracing your steps... your keys are out there.

 

 

Let's pick this up after you've found all those references to the "middle third" that must just be so incredibly plentiful since, as you point out, it's a thing.

 

So find those quotes that are clearly out there... just one with a coach talking about a QBs passes to...

 

"the....

 

middle...

 

third...

 

of the field."

 

Here's something from an article about the modern passing game:

 

In footballs earliest days, the forward pass was primarily about surprising the defense or attacking a single, isolated defender locked in man coverage. As defenses got more sophisticated, offenses evolved too, with the largest contribution coming from former San Diego Chargers head coach Sid Gillman, the Father of the Passing Game. Gillman refined passing into a calibrated, organized attack. His insights inform every throw youll see this fall.

 

Realizing that a football field is nothing more than a 53⅓-yard-wide geometric plane, Gillman designed his pass patterns to stretch defenses past their breaking points. His favorite method was to divide the field into five passing lanes and then allocate five receivers horizontally in each one. Against most zones, at least one receiver would be open. Below is an image from one of Gillmans final playbooks with the Philadelphia Eagles.

 

 

Field division in 5 here... not 3

Edited July 15, 2017 by transplantbillsfan

[transplantbillsfan]

Which article? The one in your original post? I saw that one but wasn't sure if you posted any others since I haven't been too involved in this thread.

Yeah that's the one. Those shallow crosses and the timing routes were incorporated more under Lynn than Roman. You can rewatch a bunch of the passes to Powell and Tate in particular and Clay more as the year ended after Lynn took over as examples.

[Bangarang]

Yeah that's the one. Those shallow crosses and the timing routes were incorporated more under Lynn than Roman.

Maybe but I haven't gone back to watch the last 2 seasons to know for myself.

[transplantbillsfan]

Maybe but I haven't gone back to watch the last 2 seasons to know for myself.

You have NFL game pass? I feel like those of us who post here this much might find it worth it

 

Though I'm lucky if I make one game a year, so anyone who forks out the cash to go to several games a year, it's understandable if not

Edited July 15, 2017 by transplantbillsfan

[Bangarang]

You have NFL game pass? I feel like those of us who post here this much might find it worth it

 

Though I'm lucky if I make one game a year, so anyone who forks out the cash to go to several games a year, it's understandable if not

I do have game pass but it hasn't gotten much use this offseason

[Maury Ballstein]

It would be hard to go backwards.

[transplantbillsfan]

It would be hard to go backwards.

Hey... welcome back

[Maury Ballstein]

Hey... welcome back

All hands on deck.

[aristocrat]

All hands on deck.

 

here to just talk about tyrod and not defense!

[Thurman#1]

Thurm, find me a single time an NFL coach has ever referred to the "middle third" of the field and I'll concede.

 

I've seen "between the hash marks" and "inside" or "outside the numbers," all of which we have numbers for to various degrees.

 

You say:

As we both know, I've already googled your charts. And for the thousandth time, the charts you're talking about are the wrong charts. The word around the league on Tyrod is that he can't and doesn't throw to the middle of the field. The reason people think that is because when you watch the games you see he doesn't throw to the middle third. Even the coaches last offseason talked about wanting to get Tyrod throwing to the middle of the field. This isn't made up. This is a thing.

 

and then you go on to lump "deep" and "middle third" into this whole thing as though it's clearly implicit in what the coaches say when it's not.

 

So go find a coach talking about "middle third" since, apparently, as you say, this is a thing.

 

 

 

Why would I care whether the coaches specifically mention the middle third?

 

Coaches avoid talking about what specific problems are for millions of reasons, spin, wanting to keep being positive, not wanting to point out weaknesses ... a million reasons. Have the coaches ever admitted that the players didn't understand the defense last year, have they ever said those words? Nope. But one of the biggest problems on the defense appears to have been that ... well, they didn't fully understand the defense.

 

The idea that something isn't real unless the coaches specifically admit it to the world is flat-out stupid.

 

It's plenty that they said he had problems in the middle. When you look, though, you see it's the middle third. That's the point. As you know, I analyzed every single pass of the 2015 season and discovered that the problem was the deep ... and intermediate ... middle third of the field. You look at the dot chart and it stood out like a twenty-foot great white shark in a thirty-foot wide goldfish pond. That's where the problem has been. The deep and intermediate middle third.

 

Which is why, by the way, everyone knows the Bills have a problem going there and you can't find any trace of the problem using the stats that don't just cover the area that he doesn't throw to but also throws in a ton of passes in an area of strength. You're looking where the light is better, not where the problem is.

Edited July 17, 2017 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

 

OK - Some questions & a point :

 

Questions : Does anyone have any real numbers on this? I hear Taylor has a "problem" throwing to the middle. Worse still, he "refuses" to throw to the middle. The latter is obviously wrong to anyone who watched a game but that doesn't prevent it from being a frequent comment here. Now, by the numbers Taylor throws less to the middle, but so does every quarterback. He uses the middle of the field less than average, but given the smaller numbers - Taylor's attempts & the average QB's middle throws - the difference prorates to only plus-minus 2-3 throws a game. So it's an area where his game can improve but hardly a crippling flaw. Then along comes Thurman#1, who says a subset of these already small numbers is the real issue. I just have a very hard time understanding how that can be true. I wonder whether it's typical of any NFL quarterback to take a long shot down the middle of the field - much less a completed bomb. Will this whole debate devolve to a single attempt per game? If not, how many attempts per game, compared to NFL averages? How many completions? The only solid numbers I'm hearing takes two exceptional QBs - Brady & Rivers - then tallies their deep pass attempts and divides by three. I'm not sure what that number is - or even how relevant it is.

 

 

 

All I can say is that I'm sorry but my numbers are gone. Hundreds of people saw them, as I published them on buffalobills.com. There were 2015 dot charts for Rivers, Brady and Tyrod. And I went back and watched every single pass in the 2015 season, and put up game by game compilations with every single pass that came anywhere close to being in the deep and intermediate middle third, and my comments.

 

And not a single person challenged me on my interpretation of a single play, on where the ball was being caught. Not a single person, including Transplant himself.

 

That site disappeared, without warning. The numbers are gone.

 

And again, the reason why those numbers are important are simple. Deep and intermediate throws matter. They're where you get chunk plays, they're a way to pressure the defense to cover the whole length of the field instead of being able to step up, fill up the box and make your run game and short pass game more difficult. And if you're throwing about a third of your deep passes to the left third, a third to the right third and a third to the middle, third, you're unpredictable and you make the defense's job tougher. Which is what Brady and Rivers were both doing. But if you throw roughly 40% of your deep passes to the left third, 40% to the right third and below 20% to the middle third, you're saying to the defense, "don't worry about that area, we rarely use it, go ahead and put more pressure on the areas we use more." Which is what Tyrod did.

 

And I didn't take the QB figures and divide by three. There were dot charts showing where every pass went. Brady and Rivers had a relatively even distribution. Tyrod had an extremely visible gap in the deep and intermediate middle third. I then went and checked pass by pass and confirmed that it really was a distribution problem for the Bills passing game and that that was where the problem was.

[Thurman#1]

Wow Thurm... streetlight, huh?

 

Glad I can just laugh this off and not view it as a petty, offensive, arrogant and pretentious post.

 

To your last question, look at those numbers to "the middle" according to ESPN's splits. Taylor's YPA between the hashmarks is 8.7, not 6.9. Try retracing your steps... your keys are out there.

 

 

Let's pick this up after you've found all those references to the "middle third" that must just be so incredibly plentiful since, as you point out, it's a thing.

 

So find those quotes that are clearly out there... just one with a coach talking about a QBs passes to...

 

"the....

 

middle...

 

third...

 

of the field."

 

Here's something from an article about the modern passing game:

 

In footballs earliest days, the forward pass was primarily about surprising the defense or attacking a single, isolated defender locked in man coverage. As defenses got more sophisticated, offenses evolved too, with the largest contribution coming from former San Diego Chargers head coach Sid Gillman, the Father of the Passing Game. Gillman refined passing into a calibrated, organized attack. His insights inform every throw youll see this fall.

 

Realizing that a football field is nothing more than a 53⅓-yard-wide geometric plane, Gillman designed his pass patterns to stretch defenses past their breaking points. His favorite method was to divide the field into five passing lanes and then allocate five receivers horizontally in each one. Against most zones, at least one receiver would be open. Below is an image from one of Gillmans final playbooks with the Philadelphia Eagles.

 

 

Field division in 5 here... not 3

 

 

 

Oh, so Gillman, a coach 70 years ago, divided the field up into five? Wow, well when you have to go that far out of relevancy to find an example, that says a lot about your argument right there. But what says more is that you don't know how Gillman's results turned out in terms of dividing up the field in threes. Gillman was doing exactly what I'm saying everyone should do, spread things out and challenge every area across the field. Which Tyrod doesn't do.

 

As for more recent examples, yet again, Brady and Rivers spread their deep and intermediate attempts evenly across the thirds. Tyrod doesn't.

 

As for your hashmarks thing there you're yet again looking under the streetlights because it's easier to look rather than where you lost the keys. Yet again, Tyrod throws very well and very often across the middle in the first ten yards. And between the hashes would also include behind the line of scrimmage, things like shovel passes or middle screens ... Nobody says Tyrod doesn't throw well in the middle in the short area, because he does. And you're including those stats here, yet again throwing in areas of strength and prolific throwing with his areas of weakness. Which does indeed cover up the problems in the deep and intermediate middle third, but doesn't do a single thing to prove they don't exist.

 

It's like a guy who wants to examine screen passes and can only find stats that combine screen passes and go routes together and so he thinks he's proven that that team's screen passes have a surprisingly high YPA.

 

The problem is isolated in one area. When you throw stats from other areas in with the problem areas, sure, you can make things look much better. But you're missing the problem because it's over in the dark area a few blocks over while you yet again look under the streetlight.

 

Yeah, it's a thing. That's why Roman talked about needing him to throw more and better to middle and the QB coach also talked about the same problem. But it's not a thing that you can find if you look in the wrong place, and that's what you're doing, looking at stat tables that don't isolate the problem but instead lump it in with areas of strength.

[Scott7975]

2016 passing chart fwiw

 

[HappyDays]

2016 passing chart fwiw

 

Do you happen to have a chart that shows the league average?

[Scott7975]

Do you happen to have a chart that shows the league average?

I'll look for one when I get off work. I'm sure there is some out there somewhere.