Drafting a QB, learning from the past

[Hapless Bills Fan]

With all the talk about drafting a QB, I thought it might be interesting to look under the hood at the success of QB previously drafted in different rounds, because I think people over-estimate this and get all caught up with "oooh, shiny!" that anyone we could draft in, say, the top 4 rounds would be better than Tyrod Taylor.

 

Data source is pro-football-reference.com Draft Finder from 2000 to 2015. The read-out was done to be inclusive, maybe "servicable" would be a more descriptive word than "successful"

A "servicable" QB is defined broadly: for 2012 back, typically as Career AV >41 unless extenuating circumstances such as injury (eg Bradford, RGIII), and from 2011 back, in the league for >5 years.

For 2013-forward servicable is defined as the guy has started, and not laid an egg yet. (eg Bortles and Glennon are included, Manziel and Geno Smith are not); guys who were backups then started are treated as recent draft choices (eg Foles). So different people using different criteria would probably shift a few guys in or out, but overall I think the message doesn't change.

 

It's basically saying what are our draft odds of pulling equal or better to Taylor?

 

OK go.

 

Round 1 45 QB drafted, 27 pass above criterion, 60% success. 3 out of 5 odds to draft "servicable" QB

Round 2 18 QB drafted, 5 pass, 28% success. roughly 3 out of 10 odds

Round 3 20 QB drafted, 4 pass, 20% success. roughly 1 in 5 odds.

Round 4 21 QB drafted, 3 pass, 14% success. roughly 1 in 7 odds.

Round 5 29 QB drafted , 0 pass, 0% success. don't draft a QB in round 5 with the idea he might start. Some OK backups.

Round 6 36 QB drafted, 3 pass, 8% success. roughly 1 in 12 odds.

 

Breaking down Round 1 a bit:

Picks 1-10 24 QB drafted, 16 successful, 67% success, roughly 2 out of 3 odds

Picks 11-20 8 QB drafted, 4 successful, 50% success, roughly 1 out of 2 odds

Picks 21-32 10 QB drafted, 3 successful, 30% success, roughly 1 out of 3 odds

 

Obviously if one changes the criterion to being a QB who can "carry the team on his back" or is generally recognized to be a top-10 QB in the league for years, the odds are even less.

 

I think one point to take home here is, especially in the top 3 rounds, 32 sets of talent scouts and GMs thought "this guy can start in the NFL" and were overall, wrong more often than not.

This is why, like Whaley or don't like Whaley, I think that the people who claim he should be fired for picking EJ when he was assistant GM, are truly mistaken; Nix should have been fired for NOT drafting a QB in the top rounds for 3 years prior to 2013. Overall the Bills problem has not been drafting bad QB (though they have); it has been not drafting enough QB. We have used fewer draft picks on QB than a number of teams that HAVE an established starter! So no GM should be fired for a mistake on QB, just told to re-load and fire again.

 

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

With all the talk about drafting a QB, I thought it might be interesting to look under the hood at the success of QB previously drafted in different rounds, because I think people over-estimate this and get all caught up with "oooh, shiny!" that anyone we could draft in, say, the top 4 rounds would be better than Tyrod Taylor.

 

Data source is pro-football-reference.com Draft Finder from 2000 to 2015. The read-out was done to be inclusive, maybe "servicable" would be a more descriptive word than "successful"

A "servicable" QB is defined broadly: for 2012 back, typically as Career AV >41 unless extenuating circumstances such as injury (eg Bradford, RGIII), and from 2011 back, in the league for >5 years.

For 2013-forward servicable is defined as the guy has started, and not laid an egg yet. (eg Bortles and Glennon are included, Manziel and Geno Smith are not); guys who were backups then started are treated as recent draft choices (eg Foles). So different people using different criteria would probably shift a few guys in or out, but overall I think the message doesn't change.

 

It's basically saying what are our draft odds of pulling equal or better to Taylor?

 

OK go.

 

Round 1 45 QB drafted, 27 pass above criterion, 60% success. 3 out of 5 odds to draft "servicable" QB

Round 2 18 QB drafted, 5 pass, 28% success. roughly 3 out of 10 odds

Round 3 20 QB drafted, 4 pass, 20% success. roughly 1 in 5 odds.

Round 4 21 QB drafted, 3 pass, 14% success. roughly 1 in 7 odds.

Round 5 29 QB drafted , 0 pass, 0% success. don't draft a QB in round 5 with the idea he might start. Some OK backups.

Round 6 36 QB drafted, 3 pass, 8% success. roughly 1 in 12 odds.

 

Breaking down Round 1 a bit:

Picks 1-10 24 QB drafted, 16 successful, 67% success, roughly 2 out of 3 odds

Picks 11-20 8 QB drafted, 4 successful, 50% success, roughly 1 out of 2 odds

Picks 21-32 10 QB drafted, 3 successful, 30% success, roughly 1 out of 3 odds

 

Obviously if one changes the criterion to being a QB who can "carry the team on his back" or is generally recognized to be a top-10 QB in the league for years, the odds are even less.

 

I think one point to take home here is, especially in the top 3 rounds, 32 sets of talent scouts and GMs thought "this guy can start in the NFL" and were overall, wrong more often than not.

This is why, like Whaley or don't like Whaley, I think that the people who claim he should be fired for picking EJ when he was assistant GM, are truly mistaken; Nix should have been fired for NOT drafting a QB in the top rounds for 3 years prior to 2013. Overall the Bills problem has not been drafting bad QB (though they have); it has been not drafting enough QB. We have used fewer draft picks on QB than a number of teams that HAVE an established starter! So no GM should be fired for a mistake on QB, just told to re-load and fire again.

 

Yes I also believe this to be true. I believe that in environments with a high level of uncertainty the best strategy probably is optionality. Hey you might hit on one. I mean some guys just look the part and can't play, Ryan Leaf, Jeff George etc.

[XXL Franchize]

This is a pretty in depth look into the qb situation, however, to look at where a player was drafted is irrelevant because there are other factors. How long did the player sit for? Was he with the same coaches while sitting out? What were his weapons like. How can any QB be expected to succeed in a carousel of coaching and underwhelming talent at too many positions. I agree that the QB position must be addressed but there is no Magic QB that's about to step in and lead us to the promise land. The front office is a mess and we are just repeating cycles that we have done for the past 20 years. It doesn't matter whether the QB comes from the draft or comes from free agency. As subpar as Tyrod is throwing the ball, we missed the playoffs because our defense was offensive to watch at times. Great Qb's win superbowls but an average QB can get to the playoffs if his support system is strong enough. We can't even get to the playoffs. Drew Brees is the perfect example of a QB that is in a bad situation. Every Bills fan would be ecstatic if we had Drew Brees but guess what, it wouldn't matter. Drew Brees can't play linebacker, he can't play safety, cornerback, and he can't kick field goals. The Saint's suck but they have one of the Best Qb's in history. The Bills are a mess and there isn't a player we need its an entire overhaul and it's frustrating to have lived through this playoff drought and be helpless to do anything. But I don't care if the QB is drafted in the 1st round or 6th round, the chances are he will be walking into an unstable situation that will just give him an uphill battle from the start.

[dave mcbride]

With all the talk about drafting a QB, I thought it might be interesting to look under the hood at the success of QB previously drafted in different rounds, because I think people over-estimate this and get all caught up with "oooh, shiny!" that anyone we could draft in, say, the top 4 rounds would be better than Tyrod Taylor.

 

Data source is pro-football-reference.com Draft Finder from 2000 to 2015. The read-out was done to be inclusive, maybe "servicable" would be a more descriptive word than "successful"

A "servicable" QB is defined broadly: for 2012 back, typically as Career AV >41 unless extenuating circumstances such as injury (eg Bradford, RGIII), and from 2011 back, in the league for >5 years.

For 2013-forward servicable is defined as the guy has started, and not laid an egg yet. (eg Bortles and Glennon are included, Manziel and Geno Smith are not); guys who were backups then started are treated as recent draft choices (eg Foles). So different people using different criteria would probably shift a few guys in or out, but overall I think the message doesn't change.

 

It's basically saying what are our draft odds of pulling equal or better to Taylor?

 

OK go.

 

Round 1 45 QB drafted, 27 pass above criterion, 60% success. 3 out of 5 odds to draft "servicable" QB

Round 2 18 QB drafted, 5 pass, 28% success. roughly 3 out of 10 odds

Round 3 20 QB drafted, 4 pass, 20% success. roughly 1 in 5 odds.

Round 4 21 QB drafted, 3 pass, 14% success. roughly 1 in 7 odds.

Round 5 29 QB drafted , 0 pass, 0% success. don't draft a QB in round 5 with the idea he might start. Some OK backups.

Round 6 36 QB drafted, 3 pass, 8% success. roughly 1 in 12 odds.

 

Breaking down Round 1 a bit:

Picks 1-10 24 QB drafted, 16 successful, 67% success, roughly 2 out of 3 odds

Picks 11-20 8 QB drafted, 4 successful, 50% success, roughly 1 out of 2 odds

Picks 21-32 10 QB drafted, 3 successful, 30% success, roughly 1 out of 3 odds

 

Obviously if one changes the criterion to being a QB who can "carry the team on his back" or is generally recognized to be a top-10 QB in the league for years, the odds are even less.

 

I think one point to take home here is, especially in the top 3 rounds, 32 sets of talent scouts and GMs thought "this guy can start in the NFL" and were overall, wrong more often than not.

This is why, like Whaley or don't like Whaley, I think that the people who claim he should be fired for picking EJ when he was assistant GM, are truly mistaken; Nix should have been fired for NOT drafting a QB in the top rounds for 3 years prior to 2013. Overall the Bills problem has not been drafting bad QB (though they have); it has been not drafting enough QB. We have used fewer draft picks on QB than a number of teams that HAVE an established starter! So no GM should be fired for a mistake on QB, just told to re-load and fire again.

 

Good post.

[FireChan]

With all the talk about drafting a QB, I thought it might be interesting to look under the hood at the success of QB previously drafted in different rounds, because I think people over-estimate this and get all caught up with "oooh, shiny!" that anyone we could draft in, say, the top 4 rounds would be better than Tyrod Taylor.

 

Data source is pro-football-reference.com Draft Finder from 2000 to 2015. The read-out was done to be inclusive, maybe "servicable" would be a more descriptive word than "successful"

A "servicable" QB is defined broadly: for 2012 back, typically as Career AV >41 unless extenuating circumstances such as injury (eg Bradford, RGIII), and from 2011 back, in the league for >5 years.

For 2013-forward servicable is defined as the guy has started, and not laid an egg yet. (eg Bortles and Glennon are included, Manziel and Geno Smith are not); guys who were backups then started are treated as recent draft choices (eg Foles). So different people using different criteria would probably shift a few guys in or out, but overall I think the message doesn't change.

 

It's basically saying what are our draft odds of pulling equal or better to Taylor?

 

OK go.

 

Round 1 45 QB drafted, 27 pass above criterion, 60% success. 3 out of 5 odds to draft "servicable" QB

Round 2 18 QB drafted, 5 pass, 28% success. roughly 3 out of 10 odds

Round 3 20 QB drafted, 4 pass, 20% success. roughly 1 in 5 odds.

Round 4 21 QB drafted, 3 pass, 14% success. roughly 1 in 7 odds.

Round 5 29 QB drafted , 0 pass, 0% success. don't draft a QB in round 5 with the idea he might start. Some OK backups.

Round 6 36 QB drafted, 3 pass, 8% success. roughly 1 in 12 odds.

 

Breaking down Round 1 a bit:

Picks 1-10 24 QB drafted, 16 successful, 67% success, roughly 2 out of 3 odds

Picks 11-20 8 QB drafted, 4 successful, 50% success, roughly 1 out of 2 odds

Picks 21-32 10 QB drafted, 3 successful, 30% success, roughly 1 out of 3 odds

 

Obviously if one changes the criterion to being a QB who can "carry the team on his back" or is generally recognized to be a top-10 QB in the league for years, the odds are even less.

 

I think one point to take home here is, especially in the top 3 rounds, 32 sets of talent scouts and GMs thought "this guy can start in the NFL" and were overall, wrong more often than not.

This is why, like Whaley or don't like Whaley, I think that the people who claim he should be fired for picking EJ when he was assistant GM, are truly mistaken; Nix should have been fired for NOT drafting a QB in the top rounds for 3 years prior to 2013. Overall the Bills problem has not been drafting bad QB (though they have); it has been not drafting enough QB. We have used fewer draft picks on QB than a number of teams that HAVE an established starter! So no GM should be fired for a mistake on QB, just told to re-load and fire again.

 

2/3 odds in the top 10 and we picked there for almost 6 years straight IIRC. And took nobody. Woof.

 

Drain the swamp.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2/3 odds in the top 10 and we picked there for almost 6 years straight IIRC. And took nobody. Woof.

 

Drain the swamp.

 

A valid point. I didn't think it was that long, but you're right.

2009 11 (Maybin)

2010 9 (Spiller)

2011 3 (Dareus)

2012 10 (Gilmore)

2013 8 traded down to 16 (Manuel)

2014 9 traded up to 4 (Watkins)

2015 (used in Watkins trade up)

2016 19 (Lawson)

 

Overall, looking at the drafts prior to 2009, 2010-2013, and 2014-2016, I don't think it can be argued that the Bills draft choices and talent have improved. Are they improved enough is one question, and have they made good value choices is another? If Manuel had panned out and Watkins was being used to the full, I don't think there would be argument, but he didn't and he isn't.

 

I would say the choices are good, but the value isn't.

Edited January 5, 2017 by Hapless Bills Fan

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

 

A valid point. I didn't think it was that long, but you're right.

2009 11 (Maybin)

2010 9 (Spiller)

2011 3 (Dareus)

2012 10 (Gilmore)

2013 8 traded down to 16 (Manuel)

2014 9 traded up to 4 (Watkins)

2015 (used in Watkins trade up)

2016 19 (Lawson)

 

Overall, looking at the drafts prior to 2009, 2010-2013, and 2014-2016, I don't think it can be argued that the Bills draft choices and talent have improved. Are they improved enough is one question, and have they made good value choices is another? If Manuel had panned out and Watkins was being used to the full, I don't think there would be argument, but he didn't and he isn't.

 

I would say the choices are good, but the value isn't.

 

2009 - Josh Freeman, Pat White were the next 2 taken...

2010 - Tebow/Clausen - yikes... I wanted Dez in this one

2011 - We missed out on cam - next 3 qbs were junk - thanks Chan

2012 - The guys we couldve had in the 1 weren't great - we shouldve drafted wilson. That's on DW imo

2013 - Got the guy we wanted in the worst qb class in forever, 0 top end talent just a bunch of JAGs

2014 - Still in holding pattern over EJ... don't think we even looked at bridgewater or carr

2015 - EJ full on sucks - have no picks to remedy it. 1/2 are great, everyone else is not

2016 - Rumors about us trading up for Wentz - nothing materializes... top 2 off the board 1/2 again. We take cardale, even though we probably wanted Dak there... 1 year too late for trading comp picks i suppose.

 

I think we only really tried what... one time? in 2013? We got the guy we wanted...

Edited January 5, 2017 by dneveu

[Hapless Bills Fan]

 

2009 - Josh Freeman, Pat White were the next 2 taken...

2010 - Tebow/Clausen - yikes... I wanted Dez in this one

2011 - We missed out on cam - next 3 qbs were junk - thanks Chan

2012 - The guys we couldve had in the 1 weren't great - we shouldve drafted wilson. That's on DW imo

2013 - Got the guy we wanted in the worst qb class in forever, 0 top end talent just a bunch of JAGs

2014 - Still in holding pattern over EJ... don't think we even looked at bridgewater or carr

2015 - EJ full on sucks - have no picks to remedy it. 1/2 are great, everyone else is not

2016 - Rumors about us trading up for Wentz - nothing materializes... top 2 off the board 1/2 again. We take cardale, even though we probably wanted Dak there... 1 year too late for trading comp picks i suppose.

 

I think we only really tried what... one time? in 2013? We got the guy we wanted...

 

I think you've done a good job explaining why drafting a good QB is just not so easy. 2011: Cam, 3 duds etc.

I wanted Wilson in 2012, also, but I'm totally mystified as to why you blame Whaley for the choice to draft TJ Graham? The trade up to let Nix feel sure of grabbing him, sure, but why would you blame Whaley for that, unless you give him credit for Glenn and Gilmore (which most people don't). Nix had his own thing about small speedy guys (Spiller etc)

 

I think we're aligned on the bottom line, though: the Bills need to put more effort into identifying and going after QB they find promising.

[jr1]

Tyrod is 9th in QBR and Cardale has a cannon. There's no need to draft a QB. The Browns and Jets are QB hoarders and have failed miserably

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

 

I think you've done a good job explaining why drafting a good QB is just not so easy. 2011: Cam, 3 duds etc.

I wanted Wilson in 2012, also, but I'm totally mystified as to why you blame Whaley for the choice to draft TJ Graham? The trade up to let Nix feel sure of grabbing him, sure, but why would you blame Whaley for that, unless you give him credit for Glenn and Gilmore (which most people don't). Nix had his own thing about small speedy guys (Spiller etc)

 

I think we're aligned on the bottom line, though: the Bills need to put more effort into identifying and going after QB they find promising.

He was head scout. I know largely pro scouting... but his opinion definitely mattered. And he was wrong about Wilson.

[John from Riverside]

Tyrod is 9th in QBR and Cardale has a cannon. There's no need to draft a QB. The Browns and Jets are QB hoarders and have failed miserably

Actually I am of the opinion that you draft a QB when it appears that you dont need one so just because it seems the draft falls correctly for you and you end up getting value at the pick as well.

 

That is why I pick up Tyrod's option and STILL draft a QB at 10....provided that the value ones are actually there because of the way the draft has fallen.

[major]

We should draft a qb with our 1st pick every year until we find one

[Big Turk]

No offense, but if we are going to dump Tyrod we better get someone that is more than "serviceable" because he certainly is a lot more than serviceable...

Edited January 6, 2017 by matter2003

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Tyrod is 9th in QBR and Cardale has a cannon. There's no need to draft a QB. The Browns and Jets are QB hoarders and have failed miserably

 

The Pats, who have Brady, have drafted 9 QB in the 2000-2016 window where the Bills have drafted 5.

The Packers, who had Favre at the start, have drafted 7 in that time period, including 5 after they drafted Rodgers

The Ravens have drafted 9.

 

The Browns have drafted 8, less than the Pats or Packers.

The Jets 11 QB in the same time slot are more, but not that much more.

 

Perhaps it's not "quarterback hoarding" that's the problem, but the specific QBs drafted and how the rest of the team is run? The Browns list of draftee QB, for example, is a dismal mess.

No offense, but if we are going to dump Tyrod we better get someone that is more than "serviceable" because he certainly is a lot more than serviceable...

 

No offense taken. By the criteria used, Tyrod counts as "serviceable", unless you would personally put him in the same category as Luck, Newton, Wilson etc for QB skills per se? I would not, not yet anyway.

Edited January 6, 2017 by Hapless Bills Fan

[somnus00]

I always appreciate the effort that goes into posts like this. I too think we need to learn from the past in drafting a QB.

 

Every great QB must have two fundamental qualities. Accuracy and football smarts. This has to be the foundation in finding a QB. Yes you want leadership, strong arm, poise, etc. But those qualities fluctuate in the good quarterbacks. Brady didn't have the strongest arm. Big Ben was immature. Accuracy and football IQ are more important.

 

It's easy to see why the Bills front office liked EJ. Great character. Great size. Strong arm. Bright kid. But his accuracy was a problem at Florida State. Dak Prescott's scouting reports all mentioned that he had smarts and accuracy (67% completion rate in college).

 

Is it possible to have a smart, accurate QB fail? Yes, Trent Edwards. But these two traits will always give you better odds finding that franchise guy. From the scouting reports, it seems that Trubisky is accurate. I don't know what he has between the ears.

 

BTW, every scouting report mentions that Chad Kelly's accuracy is streaky. Ignoring his attitude issues, he's an automatic, "no" in my book just based on accuracy (if I'm GM).

[Samwell Tarly]

It's kinda like the old saying, don't go grocery shopping on an empty stomach.

The good teams in this league pick up a qb in the draft when they see one they like and draft him even though they have a starter. That way they aren't totally screwed when said starter goes down. They don't worry about damaging their Qb's fragile ego. If he's good enough he can deal with healthy competition. And if the kid they drafted is really good, but so is your starter, you can trade him to a desperate team for a king's ransom.

I've always wondered with some of the horrible QB picks from the past if the team GM's knew these guys were crap but were forced to take a guy by meddling owners or team presidents who just wanted the " big name" player. Then when it blows up in their face who gets fired?

 

Also, why do teams draft strictly by position of need even when the talent doesn't warrant it and a player like JJ Watt or Khalil Mack is staring you right in the face??? Who couldn't use guys like that??

If you don't see a qb you like, don't draft one just because the Mel Kipers if the world say you have to. Best Player Available is always better than reaching. At least that way the QB you end up with will have more talent around them.

[Nihilarian]

The problem is that it generally takes a few years of actual playing experience before you know what you have in a QB.

 

I keep bringing up Drew Bees as an example because he was benched in his second year of playing because he was stinking it up so badly. The Chargers even went on to draft a QB #1 overall in 2014 because Brees went 2-9 the year before with 11 TD's, 15 INTs.

 

Now, we all know and see what a talent Brees has become and I would have to think that if anyone on the planet had seen what he is capable of the last 13 years they never would have traded him away In San Diego or used that 2004 #1 pick on a QB which was Eli Manning and they traded him to the Giants for Phillip Rivers in the first place.

 

http://www.foxsports.com/nfl/story/new-york-giants-san-diego-chargers-eli-manning-philip-rivers-trade-2004-120915

 

 

What bothers me is the Bills scouts missed on EJ and so many other QB's over the years. The most recent miss was with Derek Carr in 2014 along with so much all pro talent in that draft. The Buffalo Bills current team doctors, trainers, scouts should all be fired as far as I'm concerned!

[Hapless Bills Fan]

He was head scout. I know largely pro scouting... but his opinion definitely mattered. And he was wrong about Wilson.

 

In 2012, "head scout" (Director of College Scouting) was Chuck Cook, who was gone BTW in 2014, the first year Whaley was GM.

 

I'm sure Whaley had strong input into the draft, but I'm continually mystified how anyone not in the room can know who was the deciding voice - and even more mystified when the guy not yet in charge gets blamed for some choices (which are bad) but exempted from praise for others in the same time frame (which are good).

 

Actually I am of the opinion that you draft a QB when it appears that you dont need one so just because it seems the draft falls correctly for you and you end up getting value at the pick as well.

 

That is why I pick up Tyrod's option and STILL draft a QB at 10....provided that the value ones are actually there because of the way the draft has fallen.

 

The Green Bay Packers and NE Patriots most heartily agree with you.

 

Unless we are planning some kind of a FA splash and are determined to bring Gilmore back, there's no apparent cap reason I can see not to pick up Tyrod's option AND draft a QB.

 

I always appreciate the effort that goes into posts like this. I too think we need to learn from the past in drafting a QB.

 

Every great QB must have two fundamental qualities. Accuracy and football smarts. This has to be the foundation in finding a QB. Yes you want leadership, strong arm, poise, etc. But those qualities fluctuate in the good quarterbacks. Brady didn't have the strongest arm. Big Ben was immature. Accuracy and football IQ are more important.

 

It's easy to see why the Bills front office liked EJ. Great character. Great size. Strong arm. Bright kid. But his accuracy was a problem at Florida State. Dak Prescott's scouting reports all mentioned that he had smarts and accuracy (67% completion rate in college).

 

Is it possible to have a smart, accurate QB fail? Yes, Trent Edwards. But these two traits will always give you better odds finding that franchise guy. From the scouting reports, it seems that Trubisky is accurate. I don't know what he has between the ears.

 

BTW, every scouting report mentions that Chad Kelly's accuracy is streaky. Ignoring his attitude issues, he's an automatic, "no" in my book just based on accuracy (if I'm GM).

 

Thank you!

 

I am strongly opposed to Chad Kelly at QB.