The Deep State War Heats Up :ph34r:

[Deranged Rhino]

11 minutes ago, 3rdnlng said:

Since we're having fun have you put much thought into the following:

 

North Korea is negotiating with South Korea over their possible participation in the Olympics. Do you think that The Rocket Man is just simply trying to finagle his golf handicap so that he can shoot another 17 on an 18 hole course?

 

I haven't, but I'm on it now!  

[Nanker]

53 minutes ago, snafu said:

 

Saudi Princes arrested, okay.

Bills make the playoffs, yes I'm with you on that one.

Freemasons whining, no. Not EVERYTHING is connected.

snafu my friend, you are so right.

WRT Congresscritters resigning, I'd be shocked if Jason Chaffetz were to be swept up in the kiddy porn human trafficking scandal that's about to become the next **** storm.

Gentleman Johnny McCain... not so much.

51 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

We can have fun in this thread from time to time.

Indeed we do. Indeed we do. 

15 minutes ago, 3rdnlng said:

Since we're having fun have you put much thought into the following:

 

North Korea is negotiating with South Korea over their possible participation in the Olympics. Do you think that The Rocket Man is just simply trying to finagle his golf handicap so that he can shoot another 17 on an 18 hole course?

Who among us would really be surprised if Trump gets Rocket Man to travel to Doral for a few rounds of "friendly" golf and talks.

The media would be hemorrhaging blood simultaneously from all their offices. 

12 minutes ago, Taro T said:

 

  Why can we never have nice things?

Just for you...

 

 

[Tiberius]

Ellen! 

 

http://www.businessinsider.com/ellen-degeneres-response-to-eric-trump-suggesting-shes-in-the-deep-state-2018-1

On Tuesday, Eric Trump tweeted his concerns that comedian Ellen DeGeneres was a member of the "Deep State," an alleged clandestine group that works to circumvent the democratically elected US government, according to a conspiracy theory popular among some conservatives.

DeGeneres responded on her talk show Wednesday by saying she was "honored" that he thought she was powerful enough to be involved. She also said that even if someone asked her to be involved, she's too busy.

Eric Trump's theory that DeGeneres is part of the Deep State stems from his Twitter account, specifically its suggestions of who he should follow. Twitter suggested he follow Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, and DeGeneres, and he interpreted this to mean she was part of the Deep State.

[Deranged Rhino]

The largest shooting in US history happened in a city with thousands of cameras and not a single video has been shown of the shooter bringing the weapons into his room. There are more videos of the plane hitting the Pentagon from 2001 than there are of the events in Vegas in 2017. 

 

There are over 500 subpoenas issued to the Grand Jury investigating this matter... that seems like a lot for a single shooter who "killed himself" after the fact no? 

 

And the only interview the sole eye witness gives to the "media" is to a comedian host of a day time talk show. The interview itself wasn't an interview at all. It didn't illuminate anything about the event, it actually worked to muddy the waters of the investigation by blatantly stating falsehoods. 

 

What happened in Vegas that night is still unknown. And Ellen worked knowingly with MGM and law enforcement agencies to purposely muddy the waters of the investigation. Was she aware that was her role? Probably not. Does that make the events of the interview any less odd? 

 

Nope.

 

She's complicit in a major cover up. Hence the flack she's taking. And frankly, it's deserved.

Edited January 6, 2018 by Deranged Rhino

[Deranged Rhino]

Here's one for GG:

 

The Russians lost 7 fixed wing aircraft in Syria on the 31st:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-russia-planes/at-least-seven-russian-planes-destroyed-by-shelling-at-syrian-air-base-kommersant-idUSKBN1ES20C

 

There is NO WAY 7 aircraft were destroyed by Jihadist shelling as Reuters is claiming. This is how the rebels use mortars: 

 

 

 

Now look at the damage to the Russian aircraft from the 31st - these craft were TARGETED: 

 

 

 

That's blast damage, not tiny holes from steel mortar fragments. Likely FAE (fuel air explosives) were used to cause that damage. 

 

This is the airfield, notice the surrounding areas. Where did they set up the mortars? 

 

The Russians lost 7 fixed wing aircraft and one chopper in ONE day. That's not the work of rebels. It's the (likely) work of the GCC. They're sending a message in Putin-ese. We'll get to what that message is in little bit... 

 

The Russians can be hit badly, as we've seen. This was from September: 

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/09/russia-blames-policy-valery-asapov-death-170925140729308.html

 

Again, the article says mortars took Asapov out - yet he was in the FOB. A concrete and steel reinforced FOB that was built to withstand mortar attacks.

 

What we are seeing with the GCC and US alliance is really unprecedented. No one respects the GCC militarily, something the Saudis leaned into recently. Check out this state sponsored video - I argue it's being purposefully braggadocios and cheesy to the point of mispronouncing English words despite using native English speakers.

 

You don't fear who you don't respect. And the GCC has benefited from bigotry.

 

 

 

They've pulled off some of the more astounding military feats of the 21st century.

 

If the GCC isn't a capable military force, how did they land thousands of tanks, armored vehicles and artillery in Aden in TOTAL SECRECY:

 

 

That wasn't magic, it was professionalism and excellence.

 

Back to Syria and the 7 Russian aircraft taken out by "mortars"... I said it was a message sent in Putinese by the GCC. What message were they sending?

 

"Stay out of the protests in Iran". 

 

I've laid out in this thread how the protesters have been getting help in the form of .50 cal covering fire, warning shots, and (seemingly) impressive intelligence and technological assistance. I've also been saying this is (possibly) regime change of an entirely new kind. Nearly bloodless, compact, and designed to strike weak spots in the Mullah's protection and response units.

 

I've also been strongly suggesting this help is coming from the GCC and the US covertly. 

 

Well, I think that's becoming more and more likely by the day. First there's this from Thursday:

https://www.whitehouse.gov/articles/unlike-obama-trump-will-not-be-silent-on-iran/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=wh

 

Quote

"Where his predecessor stayed silent in 2009, Trump swiftly offered the Iranian people America's unwaivering support. He also committed to providing assistance in the days ahead."

 

Look at that last sentence again, and then remember this tweet posted earlier: 

 

The protests are "over", and yet security forces are running from protesters: 

 

 

 

And, the military is showing up at funerals and in the crowd of protesters: 

 

Notice this guy's haircut. That's military, not security forces: 

 

 

IF this is regime change, then it's being done in one of the smartest, most bloodless ways possible: 

 

*POTUS and VPOTUS both offered support to the Iranian people, but they're going to wait for an invitation. 

 

*The GCC and US have been bloodying Putin's nose in Syria to prevent them from taking an active role in helping the Mullahs.

 

*Protesters are reaching out clearly to security forces first. Why? Remember what happened what Saddam fell? It was chaos because the security forces abandoned their posts in fear. All repressive regimes create this sense of division and fear of the people in their security forces - the protesters are trying to counteract that which is practically unheard of in modern revolutions.

 

And it's working, as we've seen dozens and dozens of videos of Basij burning ID cards. 

 

If this is what I think it is, then ignore the press. They're going to be covering it completely inaccurately for multiple reasons (loyalty to the Iranian deal they supported, hating 45 et al). This might take a bit longer than we'd like, but the people are still winning.

 

Don't get discouraged. 

 

"Be extremely subtle, to the point of formlessness. Be extremely mysterious, even to the point of soundlessness. Thereby you can be the director of the opponent's fate."

Sun Tzu

Edited January 6, 2018 by Deranged Rhino

[TH3]

1 hour ago, Deranged Rhino said:

The largest shooting in US history happened in a city with thousands of cameras and not a single video has been shown of the shooter bringing the weapons into his room. There are more videos of the plane hitting the Pentagon from 2001 than there are of the events in Vegas in 2017. 

 

There are over 500 subpoenas issued to the Grand Jury investigating this matter... that seems like a lot for a single shooter who "killed himself" after the fact no? 

 

And the only interview the sole eye witness gives to the "media" is to a comedian host of a day time talk show. The interview itself wasn't an interview at all. It didn't illuminate anything about the event, it actually worked to muddy the waters of the investigation by blatantly stating falsehoods. 

 

What happened in Vegas that night is still unknown. And Ellen worked knowingly with MGM and law enforcement agencies to purposely muddy the waters of the investigation. Was she aware that was her role? Probably not. Does that make the events of the interview any less odd? 

 

Nope.

 

She's complicit in a major cover up. Hence the flack she's taking. And frankly, it's deserved.

 

I honestly can not tell....are you serious?

[DC Tom]

2 hours ago, Deranged Rhino said:

Here's one for GG:

 

The Russians lost 7 fixed wing aircraft in Syria on the 31st:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-russia-planes/at-least-seven-russian-planes-destroyed-by-shelling-at-syrian-air-base-kommersant-idUSKBN1ES20C

 

There is NO WAY 7 aircraft were destroyed by Jihadist shelling as Reuters is claiming. This is how the rebels use mortars: 

 

 

That's blast damage, not tiny holes from steel mortar fragments. Likely FAE (fuel air explosives) were used to cause that damage. 

 

 

If it were an FAE, the whole plane would look like that.  Plus, you'd see scorching.  That looks like it hit something - though I wouldn't rule out a mortar, since the fragmentation holes may not be visible in those relatively low-res pictures.  

 

2 hours ago, Deranged Rhino said:

This is the airfield, notice the surrounding areas. Where did they set up the mortars? 

 

The Russians lost 7 fixed wing aircraft and one chopper in ONE day. That's not the work of rebels. It's the (likely) work of the GCC. They're sending a message in Putin-ese. We'll get to what that message is in little bit... 

 

 

I see plenty of places to deploy mortars.  What's more, a "mortar" can have a range that would allow them to be deployed well outside the area covered by that picture.  About 300 yards to the northeast, there's a ravine leading into the rough terrain to the west that looks like decent cover, and is well within the range of most light mortars.   Likewise, there's decent cover on the beach to the west, and in a built-up area to the southwest.  And there's little stopping anyone from mounting a mortar in the back of a truck and driving it up the M1 to the west.

 

And there's no big trick to destroying seven aircraft when they're lined up on the pad as in the center of the picture.  That's six SU-35s and seven SU-24s, which types cover six of the seven planes reported destroyed.  There's no protection for aircraft at that airfield - no hard shelters, no berms, I don't even see hangars or any sort of maintenance shelters.  Everything's out in the open.  

 

It's entirely possible - likely, even - that insurgents shelled the field.  It's a big, fat, easy target, and there's nothing preventing them.

[Deranged Rhino]

15 hours ago, DC Tom said:

It's entirely possible - likely, even - that insurgents shelled the field.  It's a big, fat, easy target, and there's nothing preventing them.

 

...Except the area of Syria where it occurred and the lack of mortar damage you mean. 

 

The area around the base - for several square miles - has been rebel free for over a year and is one of the most heavily surveilled and defended patches in that country. Assad, Putin, and other "dignitaries" use the base. It's the hub of the Russian air power in the region and equally defended - including a build up of Russian forces there in the past several months despite the overall Russian "withdrawal". 

 

There's zero chance insurgents shooting mortars (which can't hit a barn from distance without multiple shots) got enough shots off, undetected and with precision, to hit the airfield - let alone target seven fixed wing aircraft - before response teams could get there. It would have been a suicide mission, and there would have been prisoners or casualties on the other side. But there weren't... because this wasn't Jihadists shooting off imprecise mortars from the Vietnam era.

 

This was an operation conducted by well armed soldiers with impeccable intelligence.

[DC Tom]

3 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

...Except the area of Syria where it occurred and the lack of mortar damage you mean. 

 

The area around the base - for several square miles - has been rebel free for over a year and is one of the most heavily surveilled and defended patches in that country. Assad, Putin, and other "dignitaries" use the base. It's the hub of the Russian air power in the region and equally defended - including a build up of Russian forces there in the past several months despite the overall Russian "withdrawal". 

 

Like Bien Hoa.  Or Da Nang.  Or Tan Son Nhut.  Or al-Assad.

 

Quote

Persistent strikes show how difficult it is for US forces with superior technology to find the insurgents who orchestrate the barrages from Sunni Triangle back roads and villages.

 

It happens all the time in asymmetric warfare, it's not unusual, it's well within the capabilities of most insurgencies.  http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a337687.pdf

[sherpa]

19 hours ago, Deranged Rhino said:

Here's one for GG:

That's blast damage, not tiny holes from steel mortar fragments. Likely FAE (fuel air explosives) were used to cause that damage. 

 

 

Tom is quite correct.

That is not FAE damage.

 

FAE is an anti personnel over pressure weapon.

I don't know what kind of access you have, but if you want to see FAE damage, view what is called the "monkey movie" from China Lake.

I noted in the first Gulf War that CNN had a spot showing FAE being loaded on an attack aircraft. Nobody ever mentioned what it was, but I had seen it before.

I know it wasn't used, but it was intentionally allowed to be filmed so the Iraqis would see it being loaded.

[Deranged Rhino]

16 minutes ago, sherpa said:

 

Tom is quite correct.

That is not FAE damage.

 

FAE is an anti personnel over pressure weapon.

I don't know what kind of access you have, but if you want to see FAE damage, view what is called the "monkey movie" from China Lake.

I noted in the first Gulf War that CNN had a spot showing FAE being loaded on an attack aircraft. Nobody ever mentioned what it was, but I had seen it before.

I know it wasn't used, but it was intentionally allowed to be filmed so the Iraqis would see it being loaded.

 

Always appreciate the info (from you and others)

 

I might be mistaken on the FAE (I did say likely) but I'm confident the damage shown in those pictures aren't from mortars but show signs of blast damage rather than the tiny holes you'd see from mortar fragments. 

 

I will check out the video too if I'm able. Appreciate it. 

 

21 minutes ago, DC Tom said:

 

Like Bien Hoa.  Or Da Nang.  Or Tan Son Nhut.  Or al-Assad.

 

 

It happens all the time in asymmetric warfare, it's not unusual, it's well within the capabilities of most insurgencies.  http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a337687.pdf

 

 

Based on the defenses, personnel, and satellites focused on that 5 square mile area I put the odds at astronomically low. Even lower when the damage doesn't have the markers of a mortar attack. 

 

But I absolutely agree weird things happen in war, even more things in asymmetric warfare. 

 

I happen to think there is a lot of evidence (outside of this event) that shows the GCC and US are playing a different game in the region for the past half a year. And this type of attack, like the one in September, has all the markings of being more sophisticated and precise than what the "rebels" have shown. 

 

 

[sherpa]

I appreciate your sincerity, but when you make mistakes like this it effects your credibility.

FAE damage looks nothing like this.

Suffice it to say, if you see the "monkey movie" you would agree that the usual disclaimer that:

"No animals were damaged in this project," would not apply.

 

FAE is an overpressure weapon, designed to cause heads to explode. 

Quote

 

 

[DC Tom]

2 hours ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

Always appreciate the info (from you and others)

 

I might be mistaken on the FAE (I did say likely) but I'm confident the damage shown in those pictures aren't from mortars but show signs of blast damage rather than the tiny holes you'd see from mortar fragments. 

 

I will check out the video too if I'm able. Appreciate it. 

 

 

 

Based on the defenses, personnel, and satellites focused on that 5 square mile area I put the odds at astronomically low. Even lower when the damage doesn't have the markers of a mortar attack. 

 

But I absolutely agree weird things happen in war, even more things in asymmetric warfare. 

 

I happen to think there is a lot of evidence (outside of this event) that shows the GCC and US are playing a different game in the region for the past half a year. And this type of attack, like the one in September, has all the markings of being more sophisticated and precise than what the "rebels" have shown. 

 

 

 

You wouldn't expect to see tiny holes from mortar fragments in pictures of that quality, anyway.  You've based your whole post on a poor photo-analysis of three pictures and a google maps image - an absence of photographic evidence that very well may not show up in the photos anyway.

 

Hell, the damage to that SU-24 looks more like a drunk pilot ran into a telephone pole than anything else.

[sherpa]

48 minutes ago, DC Tom said:

Hell, the damage to that SU-24 looks more like a drunk pilot ran into a telephone pole than anything else.

 

Disagree Tom.

Running into a pole causes shear damage, forward to aft.

 

His pics look like lateral blast damage.

[Deranged Rhino]

1 hour ago, DC Tom said:

 

You wouldn't expect to see tiny holes from mortar fragments in pictures of that quality, anyway.  You've based your whole post on a poor photo-analysis of three pictures and a google maps image - an absence of photographic evidence that very well may not show up in the photos anyway.

 

Disagree. I'm pretty sure the damage didn't come from mortars as Reuters claims.  

 

My speculation, and it is just that, is that based on the timing (which is significant) this attack was likely someone sending a message in Putinese to stay the hell out of whatever is happening in Iran.

 

The fact Russia so far seems to be doing just that is at least interesting to note. 

[DC Tom]

1 hour ago, sherpa said:

 

Disagree Tom.

Running into a pole causes shear damage, forward to aft.

 

His pics look like lateral blast damage.

 

If they're very small, precisely placed charges.  That's pretty localized damage for a larger, area blast.

And note that I'm not saying the plane hit something - it would be pretty tough to hit only the horizontal stabilizer on an SU-24.  Just that it's most comparable to imagery of ground strikes I've seen than anything else.

Which is all really to warn against drawing conclusions from amateur photo-analysis.  Particularly on the internet, when you can't even accurately source the pictures (for all we know, those are eight years old, from a completely different incident.)

[DC Tom]

6 hours ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

...Except the area of Syria where it occurred and the lack of mortar damage you mean. 

 

https://www.google.com/maps/place/Latakia,+Syria/@35.3997023,35.9484985,5138m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m5!3m4!1s0x1526ac2d61d4607d:0x8e325bf8a14195de!8m2!3d35.5407103!4d35.7952667

 

That's roughly twelve square miles around the base, which corresponds roughly to a radius of two miles, which is within the range of most mortars.  And there's plenty of convenient places with cover to set them up (the high rises southwest of the Jableh supermarket are an interesting possibility, as is the area around the Benjaro school.  Can't really make a determination, though, unless you walk the ground.)  And it's really not difficult to evade patrols - Iraqi insurgents did it all the time.  

 

And stop with the "lack of mortar damage."  There's a lack of photographic evidence of mortar damage, which is not the same thing. 

[sherpa]

Probably just the results of average Russian landings.

[B-Man]

I'm starting to think that the Hillary investigation wasn't on the up and up....

 

 

Hillary Clinton’s chief of staff, John Podesta, received an email from an advisor on March 9, 2016, which brought up the phrase “gross negligence” in regards to the FBI’s email investigation on Hillary Clinton.

The email was sent to John Podesta on March 9th — via Wikileaks:

 

 Click to enlarge

 

 

This was before the FBI agent in charge of the probe removed the phrase from her exoneration statement, according to WikiLeaks.

 

FBI Director James Comey released his statement on the Clinton email investigation on July 5, 2016, four months later.

James Comey changed the wording from “grossly negligent” to “extremely careless” in his final statement.

 

 

 

 

[Deranged Rhino]

Yeaaaaaaaaaaaaah.... 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/shortcuts/2018/jan/08/chelsea-clinton-church-satan-got-cool

 

Trying to get out in front of a bullet... won't work.