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March Movies: Batman V. Superman, 10 Cloverfield Lane...


Mark Vader

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:lol: Exactly. Though, hearing Jeff Bridges talk about the film on Stern (they've been replaying an old interview recently) makes me want to see it again.

 

Star Trek: The Motion Picture. That's the one I was trying to think of where pacing was actually improved by making it longer - Paramount made cuts to make it more effects-heavy to compete with Star Wars, but supposedly the "director's cut" restores 15 minutes of actual story that makes it much less ponderous.

 

And I could actually see that working for something like Batman v. Superman. You've basically got an origin story...with two superheros and two villains. It wouldn't be unreasonable to estimate a running time on the order of two "normal" superhero movies, or to be incoherent if it weren't (imagine Avengers, without Captain America or Iron Man preceding it, and having to provide that background). I could see a studio demanding a coherent 3.5 hour movie be cut down to less than 2.5, and wrecking the pacing.

 

And they'd be right...because coherent or not, no one's sitting through a 3.5 hour movie.

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Star Trek: The Motion Picture. That's the one I was trying to think of where pacing was actually improved by making it longer - Paramount made cuts to make it more effects-heavy to compete with Star Wars, but supposedly the "director's cut" restores 15 minutes of actual story that makes it much less ponderous.

 

I always hear people talking about the director's cut of Kingdom of Heaven, which makes it a really good movie. I don't know if that one makes it a longer movie or just modifies stuff, but it's definitely one I hear a lot.

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I've yet to see a longer cut of a film fix pacing issues in a shorter cut.

The Director's cut of Watchmen is an example that comes to mind.

That's not good... Final box office was close to 10 million under projections. Doesn't sound like a lot, but that could cost a few folks their jobs today.

 

http://variety.com/2016/film/box-office/batman-v-superman-box-office-3-1201740145/

Considering how much they're going to make off of merchandising and product placement agreements, I don't think the studio is disappointed with the opening. $400m+ worldwide opening is pretty huge. The critics were harsh on it, but the audiences have been kinder, and most everyone I know that's seen it, enjoyed the movie, flaws and all, and are excited to see it's universe expanded due to the high quality nature of individual characters within the film. Wonder Woman shows up, gets an applause in theater... that means people are going to be excited to see her own movie, for example. This movie is an investment by WB for the longer run, I can't imagine them pulling the plug on Justice League two weeks away from filming, because it missed an estimate by a couple million, yet still was record breaking in many ways.

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Considering how much they're going to make off of merchandising and product placement agreements, I don't think the studio is disappointed with the opening. $400m+ worldwide opening is pretty huge. The critics were harsh on it, but the audiences have been kinder, and most everyone I know that's seen it, enjoyed the movie, flaws and all, and are excited to see it's universe expanded due to the high quality nature of individual characters within the film. Wonder Woman shows up, gets an applause in theater... that means people are going to be excited to see her own movie, for example. This movie is an investment by WB for the longer run, I can't imagine them pulling the plug on Justice League two weeks away from filming, because it missed an estimate by a couple million, yet still was record breaking in many ways.

 

That's not how the studio system works at the executive and marketing levels. If your tent pole film, especially one that's supposed to set up the next five years of WB box office clout, comes in even one million under the projected estimates people get fired. It's a zero sum game when you bankroll these huge movies. Execs at studios have a shelf life of about 2 to 3 years -- and that's if their movies exceed expectations. A film like this, which needs to clear at least 800 million to even break even (and needs to be over 400 million domestic to make WB feel confident), coming in under projected estimates is going to piss off a lot of investors and department heads.

 

I'm not saying that they're going to cancel their slate -- they can't, they're too committed already. But Snyder's film was supposed to set the tone for the whole universe and having it under perform (against zero box office competition on a long weekend) is bad news for a lot of folks at the studio this morning.

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That's not how the studio system works at the executive and marketing levels. If your tent pole film, especially one that's supposed to set up the next five years of WB box office clout, comes in even one million under the projected estimates people get fired. It's a zero sum game when you bankroll these huge movies. Execs at studios have a shelf life of about 2 to 3 years -- and that's if their movies exceed expectations. A film like this, which needs to clear at least 800 million to even break even (and needs to be over 400 million domestic to make WB feel confident), coming in under projected estimates is going to piss off a lot of investors and department heads.

 

I'm not saying that they're going to cancel their slate -- they can't, they're too committed already. But Snyder's film was supposed to set the tone for the whole universe and having it under perform (against zero box office competition on a long weekend) is bad news for a lot of folks at the studio this morning.

I can see if it sorely misses overall expectations, but after just opening weekend? Seems extreme.
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I can see if it sorely misses overall expectations, but after just opening weekend? Seems extreme.

 

It's not like 30 years ago, when "summer blockbuster" meant the movie generated revenue all summer. When people know they can wait for on-demand viewing and blu-ray rental and purchases, movies have maybe an 4-week window for meaningful box-office receipts. Opening weekend has a disproportionate impact on overall revenue.

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It's not like 30 years ago, when "summer blockbuster" meant the movie generated revenue all summer. When people know they can wait for on-demand viewing and blu-ray rental and purchases, movies have maybe an 4-week window for meaningful box-office receipts. Opening weekend has a disproportionate impact on overall revenue.

 

Absolutely, and every studio does their own internal tracking of box office projections and sets their own benchmark for success which is what the corporate boards go by. The boards do not care if you under perform by 1 million or 10 million, under performing on the studio's biggest budget is a career killer.

 

Man of Steel brought in $116 opening weekend, Hunger Games brought in $152 million for the (previous) March record. As recently as two weeks ago, internal projections at WB were rumored to be over $170 opening weekend in order for the film to have a long, successful run at the domestic box office -- it fell short by close to 10 million dollars which doesn't sound like much but as stated above, in the corporate world of Hollywood (where studios are owned by larger corporations who only care about numbers, not content) it doesn't bode well for the film's legs. The movie didn't top Avenger's opening numbers ($207 million domestic) and only beat Avenger's international box office because Avengers didn't count China, Japan or Russia in it's $392 million dollar opening weekend.

 

The latest tracking numbers show the film dropping this weekend (despite, again, slim competition). It should win this coming weekend again pretty easily (it's biggest competition is a religious film called God's Not Dead 2 -- yeah, people are running to see that) but the question is by how much. If it doesn't pull in another 100 million domestic (at least) people are going to get really nervous in Burbank. Overseas it'll be a monster (and that matters), but because of how much WB has banked on this film jump starting their connected universe the studio needs it to clear at least 400 million domestic -- which projections are showing it has a chance to miss. Considering the movie was budgeted at a rumored $410 (with only half of the advertising budget factored into that number), not breaking even domestically would more than likely spell doom for the upcoming Aquaman (which has a less bankable star and ip) and Wonder Woman (again, less bankable star and more controversial ip), let alone JL2.

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I can't believe so many people still spend their entertainment time and money on terrible movies like this. Kids, I can understand, but why do adults keep going? It's so far from art and so obviously just a drab exercise in demographics and marketing, it feels like I'm at work if I go see something like this.

 

I hope the disappointing box office of Batman vs. Creative Integrity is the beginning of a trend of people just losing interest in the same dumb cliches and tropes. Probably not though.

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It's not like 30 years ago, when "summer blockbuster" meant the movie generated revenue all summer. When people know they can wait for on-demand viewing and blu-ray rental and purchases, movies have maybe an 4-week window for meaningful box-office receipts. Opening weekend has a disproportionate impact on overall revenue.

 

I think that with a movie like this, i.e. one that was getting killed by critics before it even opened yet still broke the record for a movie opening in March, that people see how much it has made, say "screw the critics" and go to see it, and it ultimately can reaches its overall predicted haul. But it will be interesting to see if anyone does get fired over the opening weekend haul.

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I think that with a movie like this, i.e. one that was getting killed by critics before it even opened yet still broke the record for a movie opening in March, that people see how much it has made, say "screw the critics" and go to see it, and it ultimately can reaches its overall predicted haul. But it will be interesting to see if anyone does get fired over the opening weekend haul.

 

This article has a different internal number than the one I've heard (140 million vs 175, but this article came out after the first batch of reviews so who knows). Relevant section:

 

"Some Jobs Could Be On the Line Warner Bros. finished third in domestic market share in 2015, decent at some studios but not for this traditional powerhouse. Tsujihara could have made changes in his film unit’s executive team but he didn’t, with the expectation that his show of confidence would be rewarded. The turnaround hasn’t materialized and the studio currently ranks eighth in market share. That’s mainly because it has only had one wide release this year, the romantic comedy “How To Be Single,” which has done well, grossing $46 million domestically and another $49 million abroad. But it’s time for the rebound to begin. - "

 

 

http://www.thewrap.com/why-batman-v-superman-needs-to-be-a-hit-for-warner-bros/

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Have not seen "Batman V. Superman" yet, was in Buffalo last weekend visiting my mother and when I got back I got in my work email box an offer to see a "a premiere screening of Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice." Of course the movie is out already and it is not a premiere but they reused the same email that allowed others to go on Friday last week. Trying to decide if I want to see it twice since I plan on seeing it Sunday with wife.

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This article has a different internal number than the one I've heard (140 million vs 175, but this article came out after the first batch of reviews so who knows). Relevant section:

 

"Some Jobs Could Be On the Line Warner Bros. finished third in domestic market share in 2015, decent at some studios but not for this traditional powerhouse. Tsujihara could have made changes in his film units executive team but he didnt, with the expectation that his show of confidence would be rewarded. The turnaround hasnt materialized and the studio currently ranks eighth in market share. Thats mainly because it has only had one wide release this year, the romantic comedy How To Be Single, which has done well, grossing $46 million domestically and another $49 million abroad. But its time for the rebound to begin. - "

 

 

http://www.thewrap.com/why-batman-v-superman-needs-to-be-a-hit-for-warner-bros/

You seem to be pretty in-tune with this stuff. I'm curious to see what, if anything, happens this soon. Keep us posted.
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You seem to be pretty in-tune with this stuff. I'm curious to see what, if anything, happens this soon. Keep us posted.

 

:beer: Here's another article that I came across this morning as I settle in to work. I haven't seen an updates as to how the film is tracking for the weekend, but as the article points out they don't have any competition for at least two more weeks which is enough time to right the ship if people show up to see it this weekend.

 

http://screenrant.com/batman-v-superman-box-office-opening-friday-sunday/

 

 

The buzz surrounding the release of Dawn of Justice helped propel it into the minds of moviegoers despite its not-for-kids tone and bad reviews, but those reviews and the mixed reaction of fans (we discuss these competing reactions in-depth here) may actually hurt the film. What Warner Bros., analysts, and passionate observers are looking forward to now is how Batman V Superman performs in its second weekend. If there’s a massive dropoff, the film may under-perform overall, and that’s usually fueled by a negative response.

 

That effect was potentially already seen over the weekend since Batman V Superman: Dawn of Justice actually set a record for the biggest box office dropoff for a superhero film from Friday to Sunday in an opening weekend. Looking at daily numbers for all modern superhero films, Forbes discovered that BvS dropped 58.6% from Friday (which includes Thursday previews) to Sunday.

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