Now is when McCoy's contract bites us in the butt

[Bill from NYC]

Urbik will cost $2.625 million if kept and save $1.775 million if cut. Why am I ready to part ways with him? I don't think he's that good. Why would I want to see the team pay $2.625 million for a player that's not any good? Miller is better IMO. So we can agree to disagree here, but there's nothing factual in either of our opinions of Urbik's worth. I just don't think a backup guard should be paid $2.6 million.

I hear ya but I do hope that they bring in another guard via the draft.

[Deranged Rhino]

 

I would hope the roster is better now...they spent more in UFA last off-season (~90M) than any other team in the NFL. The year before they traded into the top 5 to draft Watkins and had 3 drafts total to add talent. Anyone should be able to improve on the Buddy Nix GM years.

 

Yet, they're a .500 team in 2014-15. And they are smack up against the likely cap ceiling already in 2016, so the owner's willingness to spend isn't the issue. It's managing the dollars they've had to work with, which is my point all along. Is this team being built through the draft, or are they going the Dan Snyder route?.

 

The goal isn't to build talent at individual positions, but if it were I'm sure the Bills qualify for the off-season spending award. The W-L column is another matter.

 

I'm in no way trying to argue you cannot take the position you're taking, it's completely valid. I'm only saying that you can't take that position, use examples from the Ralph/Nix/Marv era and project it forward as if it's still relevant.

 

It isn't.

 

They are not in cap jail by any stretch, there are plenty of moves that can be made to free up (quite a bit) of cap room without needing to rebuild the whole roster and that's before the cap goes up its expected $10 million. The worries about the cap are best left in the past with Ralph, who, by his frugal nature, made the cap a constant worry for Bills fans. That's not the case anymore, the team has guys (the same guy actually) who knows how to maneuver the cap and keep the team from being handcuffed by it.

 

This is a brand new organization, except the fans, from top to bottom with a new approach to building a winner. They finished a disappointing .500 in the first year they were all together. That's not a disaster by any definition, regardless of the preseason hype Rex gave us. Disappointing? Absolutely. A complete dumpster fire? Not by any stretch.

 

Yes, we both agree it takes a GM who knows how to pick talent to make it work, but it's hard to argue Whaley doesn't have a good eye for talent when you're agreeing with me the roster has improved (dramatically in my estimation) from the final few rosters of Ralph's regime.

 

The goal of the GM is to give the coaches the best 53 man roster possible. That's all he can do outside of picking the best HC to run the show on the field. Whaley has not been perfect, he's made some mistakes, but it's tough to argue he hasn't made this team more competitive, deeper, and more complete since he's taken over.

[Nihilarian]

A little off topic, but why are you and countless others so ready to part ways with Urbik? It doesn't appear that doing so would save much cap space.

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/kraig-urbik/

 

I don't think he is a tremendous player by any stretch, but who do we have that is better? Miller? I think not. Richardson? Please.

 

I would like to see them keep him AND draft another guard.

 

Jmo.

I agree with that second sentence and yet it shows this team's inability to find a decent starting OG in the draft. Richie Incognito was a godsend at LG and only Rex Ryan saw that and vouched for him.

 

I think Urbik was decent this year in coming off the bench and was clearly better in pass blocking. I just don't think he is able to hold up well over the course of a season any more. RT & RG are still weak spots.

[BrooklynBills]

Release Mario: 12.9 million

Convert Charles Clay roster bonus into signing bonus: 7.5 million

There's 20.4 mil in cap space gained.

 

The following guys are overpaid to be backups or are simply not in the plans moving forward:

McKelvin: 3.9

Urbik: 1.7

Dixon: 1.1

Jarius Wynn: 1

Goodwin: .7

Duke Williams: .6

 

That gets us to 29.4 under the cap.

 

These guys are older, had little impact on the team, and may be released due to age:

Kyle Williams: 5

Manny Lawson: 2.6

Corey Graham: 2.6

 

Thats gets us to 39 IF we go that route, but I think thats less likely to happen.

 

Most likely, we release Mario, Lawson, McKelvin, Duke Williams, Urbik, Dixon, Wynn, and Goodwin, and restructure Clay to get 32 mil under the cap. With that space, we:

re-sign Glenn(~10 mil/yr)

re-sign Richie(~5 mil/yr)

 

This gives us roughly 15 mil in FA to play with to grab a few 2nd tier free agents like Demario Davis, Damon Harrison, Courtney Upshaw, Mark Barron, or Jermaine Kearse.

 

Then, we can cut the following players in camp/after June 1, to fit in a Tyrod extension before the start of the season:

Corey Graham: 3.6

Dan Carpenter: 2.3

Jerome Felton: 1.6

Cyrus Kouandijo: .8

Garrison Sanborn: .9

 

That frees up about 9 million if we want to get Tyrod locked up.

[BuffaloBillsMagic1]

Cut Mario Williams, Kyle Williams, Aaron Williams, Dan Carpenter, Leodis McKelvin, EJ Manuel, Cyrus Kouandjio, Marquis Goodwin and we should be in decent shape.

I'd Keep EJ as cheap backup, Keep McKelvin, and AW. I'd add to cut list Boobie, Felton, IK and other non starters that we could try and replace with cheap draft pick alternatives. Maybe re-work McKelvin and KW's contract as well.

[Santana]

 

Check Buffalo's current cap space and then do the math assuming Mario is cut. It ain't much even with another 10M added to the cap considering Glenn and Incognito need decent sized deals.

 

By the way, Jim Overdorf can only do one contract at a time, so restructuring 2-3 players by the time UFA takes place might be difficult for him.

 

This roster isn't 1-2 players away from being an 11 win team. They have to hit a few home runs this off-season and Doug Whaley hasn't done that in 3+ years on the job.

 

Lol Jim is special....very special I agree. The math is really subjective depending on how you look at it. I don't think Richie Incognito's deal is going to be anything crazy. He's a guard over 32 years old. I also don't think that Cordy Glenn's contract is going to be that crazy of a deal either. Yes, he's a left tackle but he's no All-Pro. Leodis Will probably get cut, his contract for next year is well over $4Million Dollars. Mario William's contract would free up $12million. Gilmore's contract should be redone as well since he's slated to make $11mil in 2016. EJ Manuel will most likely get the boot. There's a lot of way's to save money on this team and there are a lot of players who don't start that are making way too much money. Just MO

[3rdand12]

 

Urbik will cost $2.625 million if kept and save $1.775 million if cut. Why am I ready to part ways with him? I don't think he's that good. Why would I want to see the team pay $2.625 million for a player that's not any good? Miller is better IMO. So we can agree to disagree here, but there's nothing factual in either of our opinions of Urbik's worth. I just don't think a backup guard should be paid $2.6 million.

the guy that can play swing guard , start at RG and play center in a pinch? 2.6 is peanuts

 

ps

Miller is not better, yet.

Lets hope so.

But i would still keep Urbik

Edited January 5, 2016 by 3rdand12

[Rico]

 

I'm in no way trying to argue you cannot take the position you're taking, it's completely valid. I'm only saying that you can't take that position, use examples from the Ralph/Nix/Marv era and project it forward as if it's still relevant.

 

It isn't.

 

They are not in cap jail by any stretch, there are plenty of moves that can be made to free up (quite a bit) of cap room without needing to rebuild the whole roster and that's before the cap goes up its expected $10 million. The worries about the cap are best left in the past with Ralph, who, by his frugal nature, made the cap a constant worry for Bills fans. That's not the case anymore, the team has guys (the same guy actually) who knows how to maneuver the cap and keep the team from being handcuffed by it.

 

This is a brand new organization, except the fans, from top to bottom with a new approach to building a winner. They finished a disappointing .500 in the first year they were all together. That's not a disaster by any definition, regardless of the preseason hype Rex gave us. Disappointing? Absolutely. A complete dumpster fire? Not by any stretch.

 

Yes, we both agree it takes a GM who knows how to pick talent to make it work, but it's hard to argue Whaley doesn't have a good eye for talent when you're agreeing with me the roster has improved (dramatically in my estimation) from the final few rosters of Ralph's regime.

 

The goal of the GM is to give the coaches the best 53 man roster possible. That's all he can do outside of picking the best HC to run the show on the field. Whaley has not been perfect, he's made some mistakes, but it's tough to argue he hasn't made this team more competitive, deeper, and more complete since he's taken over.

Ownership may have changed , but Ralph's trash is still in charge.

 

I have faith that Pegs will get it right, he'll just have to learn the hard way

[John from Riverside]

Frankly I think Urbik gets a pretty bad wrap.......in pass protection is is right now better then Miller.

 

Now...it is my hope that Miller continues to work on his game and comes into next season solid. Having a RT next to him that isnt total trash would help.

[Fan in San Diego]

Wouldn't completely shock me if the Bills flip McCoy on draft day if the deal is right.

San Diego needs a RB. Maybe do a deal with them.

[ganesh]

Its not so bad if you think about it......

 

Hughes is a LB in Rex scheme.....Lawson was productive and should be retained.....Preston Brown should be moved outside

 

They need a beast MLB who is in on every tackle to make it all work.....Marcel goes to DE.....bring in a true nose tackle like Knighton who worked on a 4 million deal last year

 

Draft a MLB in the 1st round of this draft. That kid from Alabama will do just fine.

This surprisingly would work if Whaley and Rex can put their mind to it. The key is finding that Run stopping MLB for a 3-4 scheme. A player like Spikes would be a great fit .

 

The second issue (not related to LBs) would be to have a game changing FS. I think that is what the Bills will be looking to get at the top of the draft.

1. Nose Tackle

2. Starting MLB

3. Free Safety

[Sisyphean Bills]

 

I'm in no way trying to argue you cannot take the position you're taking, it's completely valid. I'm only saying that you can't take that position, use examples from the Ralph/Nix/Marv era and project it forward as if it's still relevant.

 

It isn't.

 

They are not in cap jail by any stretch, there are plenty of moves that can be made to free up (quite a bit) of cap room without needing to rebuild the whole roster and that's before the cap goes up its expected $10 million. The worries about the cap are best left in the past with Ralph, who, by his frugal nature, made the cap a constant worry for Bills fans. That's not the case anymore, the team has guys (the same guy actually) who knows how to maneuver the cap and keep the team from being handcuffed by it.

 

This is a brand new organization, except the fans, from top to bottom with a new approach to building a winner. They finished a disappointing .500 in the first year they were all together. That's not a disaster by any definition, regardless of the preseason hype Rex gave us. Disappointing? Absolutely. A complete dumpster fire? Not by any stretch.

 

Yes, we both agree it takes a GM who knows how to pick talent to make it work, but it's hard to argue Whaley doesn't have a good eye for talent when you're agreeing with me the roster has improved (dramatically in my estimation) from the final few rosters of Ralph's regime.

 

The goal of the GM is to give the coaches the best 53 man roster possible. That's all he can do outside of picking the best HC to run the show on the field. Whaley has not been perfect, he's made some mistakes, but it's tough to argue he hasn't made this team more competitive, deeper, and more complete since he's taken over.

 

"Except the fans"? It seems like a contradiction to say the same person is still managing the cap/economics of the team and then say the only thing that is the same is the fans.

 

The GM's role is to construct, maintain, and manage a franchise that can compete for championships. It's coaches, scouts, players, trainers, cap nerds, etc. It means finding the right coaches and players who fit a strategic system, has the flexibility to dynamically adapt to a constantly changing environment, and will play all 3 phases of the game at a high enough level to win. It means managing costs and looking far enough ahead to maintain and sustain the system.

 

A GM's job is not really about selling a list of 53 names based on their Madden numbers as "the best" to the fans.

[jester43]

 

What I don't get is why single out McCoy? We have some cap issues, for reals, but McCoy is like the 6th highest payed player on the team.

Mario Williams is big $$ guy #1, followed by Dareus, Clay, Gilmore, and Kyle Williams. I "get" paying McCoy. Roman has shown that he wants to run his legs off and he knows how to use him effectively. But all that money to DLman so they can drop back in pass coverage and be ineffective as pass rushers makes little sense.

because they overpaid him. i like the guy and want him to justify the expense...but that will be really tough to for him do...

Frankly I think Urbik gets a pretty bad wrap.......in pass protection is is right now better then Miller.

 

Now...it is my hope that Miller continues to work on his game and comes into next season solid. Having a RT next to him that isnt total trash would help.

agree...i thought he looked pretty rough at first, but he really seemed to improve as the season went on. for whatever reason.

[Deranged Rhino]

Ownership may have changed , but Ralph's trash is still in charge.

 

I have faith that Pegs will get it right, he'll just have to learn the hard way

 

"In charge" is where I differ. Brandon isn't in charge (I know you'll disagree) and neither is Overdorf. They've been freed from the yoke of Ralph's penny pinching, but most certainly answer to the Pegulas in the end.

 

But as for your later point, I agree wholeheartedly. I just hope it doesn't take them as long as you're fearing.

 

 

"Except the fans"? It seems like a contradiction to say the same person is still managing the cap/economics of the team and then say the only thing that is the same is the fans.

 

The GM's role is to construct, maintain, and manage a franchise that can compete for championships. It's coaches, scouts, players, trainers, cap nerds, etc. It means finding the right coaches and players who fit a strategic system, has the flexibility to dynamically adapt to a constantly changing environment, and will play all 3 phases of the game at a high enough level to win. It means managing costs and looking far enough ahead to maintain and sustain the system.

 

A GM's job is not really about selling a list of 53 names based on their Madden numbers as "the best" to the fans.

 

Marching orders come from the top and are filtered down. Overdorf does not, and has never, determined how much his owner(s) would spend on the roster, that isn't his job. His job is to work within the framework given to him by his boss. Under Ralph his orders were to keep costs down and operate using a cash to cap principle. When the team was in limbo, his job was to keep costs low for potential buyers. Now that the team is under new ownership with no compunction about spending money (literally the opposite of Ralph's tenure), Overdorf still doesn't set the agenda. He's given contracts for the players the GM and coaches want and it's up to him to find a way to structure the numbers so they work within the Bills cap.

 

And he's good at his job. Despite being the original Russ Brandon to many on this board (at least in the way fans often lit pitchforks whenever his name was mentioned in the early oughts), Overdorf knows how to work cap numbers. Every NFL team has a cap person (or multiple people), because Overdorf has been carried over doesn't mean it's "the same old Bills" at all. Good employees are carried over from regimes to regimes all the time in pro sports. The Bills are in year one of a completely new organizational structure -- because of the people sitting atop the mountain, not because of the people working under them. Though there has been a lot of turnover in the front office and scouting departments since Ralph passed... a lot.

 

The fans are the only ones who are insulated from this kind of organizational change because we are on the outside looking in. We see "the same old Bills" when the drought ticks up to 16 years but that's underselling the type of transformation this organization has undergone the past 15 months. Which, in all reality, makes it a fool's errand to use examples from Ralph's ownership and project it forward as if it has meaning in the Pegula led future. It does not. They missed the playoffs this year for reasons completely unique to this team, not because Ralph's old guard is calling the shots still or there's some curse on Buffalo.

 

As for the bolded, I'm not sure what you're referring to. I never said the GM's job is to sell his roster to the fans at all. I said the GM's job is to compile the best 53 man roster possible for the coaches to use on game days. The fans aren't part of the equation, nor should they be. Whaley, like Overdorf, has to follow the guidelines given to him from above. Those guidelines have changed dramatically since the Pegulas have taken over, giving Whaley more freedom than he or any of his predecessors not named Polian ever had to build this roster. In short, the Pegulas are letting Whaley operate like an NFL GM rather than giving him groupons to go shopping.

 

Like I said, it's a new organization in terms of how it operates from top to bottom.

[Kelly the Dog]

It's absolutely impossible to gauge what a player is worth in the future when you sign him to a contract. No one knows this, you can only hope to be close about half of the time. You're a genius if you have that batting average. On every team there are approximately one third of the players overpaid, one third about right, and one third underpaid. You have to overpay for veterans.

 

Did we overpay for Shady and his production? Sure. But he's also extremely valuable, a good pass catcher and a good and willing blocker. He just needs to stay healthy and it will be money well spent. That has yet to be determined.

 

The idea that RBs are a dime a dozen is just not true. Most in the NFL suck.

 

One way to look at the Bills situation, however, is the RB position as a whole. No one could have predicted Karlos would be this good or that any 5th round RB was going to be that good. And people that point out 5th round RBs that turn into good or great RBs ignore the other 20 5th round RBs over the last several years that sucked. It took four tries (Wood, Boom, etc) before we found Dizzy Gillislee who appears to be good but that is not a given yet.

 

But the amount we spend total on RB going into 2016 with Shady, Karlos and Gillislee as our three headed monster, even if it is grossly slanted to Shady, is very manageable capwise.