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Article: Josh McCown could have been the answer at QB in '15


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Orton, Cassel, & McCown are essentially the same players.

I'm have a problem and I need help. :(

Basically, yes. But the same way that say, EJ, Geno and Matt Barkley were the same players when they came out as rookies. Not same style but all rookies, all with some faults, all with some good qualities, all need time to develop, and everyone would have an opinion on their hierarchy. At that time, I thought EJ was the best by default, Geno was okay, and Barkley sucked because he had a rag arm and would never make it.

 

McCown, Orton and Cassell are all vets with very average careers who all showed some signs of being decent but mostly were very average to total sucktitude. Everyone would have a hierarchy if you had to choose one. Mine would be, regrettably, Orton, then Cassell then McCown (although the Orton I am talking about is the pre-retirement lost the love for the game Orton).

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I think he is very, very average. I think McCown sucks.

Cassel the last 4 seasons: 30 TDs, 34 INTs, 5745 yards, 515 completions, 871 attempts, and a 59.1% completion rate. His QBR: 74.1. That's hardly average, and it's a big sample size. In today's NFL, it flat out sucks. The teams he's QB'd have gone 9-17 over that time period.

 

McCown the last 4 seasons: 26 TDs, 19 INTs, 4449 yards, 368 completions, 606 attempts, and a 60.7% completion rate. His QBR: 84.5. The teams he's QB'd for have gone 5-13 in that time period.

 

Neither are great, but McCown has been better. Plus he didn't break his foot last year.

 

Also, like you I'd take Orton. If Bills fans can get past their resentment of him, they'd see that mediocre as he is, he's heads and shoulders above Cassel and McCown.

Edited by dave mcbride
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Dave, put McCown on the Vikings and their mess when Cassell was playing, and put McCown on a team like the Bucs instead of having Marshall and Jeffrey and Bennett and Forte and see how their stats are. Oh wait, we just did and he sucked. Raw stats suck, and you use them to prove points way too much.

 

I don't think Cassell is good either, I just think McCown sucks.

 

The fact is the Bills wouldn't pay McCown 5m as a free agent, but they gave up draft picks and over 5m for Cassell.

Edited by Kelly the Dog
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Dave, put McCown on the Vikings and their mess when he was playing, and put McCown on a team like the Bucs instead of having Marshall and Jeffrey and Bennett and Forte and see how their stats are. Oh wait, we just did and he sucked. Raw stats suck, and you use them to prove points way too much.

 

The fact is the Bills wouldn't pay McCown 5m as a free agent, but they gave up draft picks and over 5m for Cassell.

... or they don't confirm what you think is true and hence wish them away with hand-waving declarations like Cassel is "average." He most certainly is not. By any reasonable definition he's below average, and to boot he's both old and coming off a serious injury. Those stats aren't "raw" in any event; they are cumulative ones across a number of categories that have been plugged into a formula that's actually indicative of quality. QBR has historically been a pretty strong indicator of QB play overall (as I'm sure you know). At the end of the day, do you honestly think the Bills preferred Cassel to McCown?

Edited by dave mcbride
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... or they don't confirm what you think is true and hence wish them away with hand-waving declarations like Cassel is "average." He most certainly is not. He's below average, and to boot he's both old and coming off a serious injury. Those stats aren't "raw" in any event; they are cumulative across a number of categories. Plus QBR has historically been a pretty strong indicator of QB play overall (as I'm sure you know). At the end of the day, do you honestly think the Bills preferred Cassel to McCown?

I think they don't really like either. I think they really didn't want to give up any draft picks to get a QB in this draft because they were down two so their preferred option at the time with equal guys was to choose McCown and pay him 3-4 mil on a 1-2 year deal. They balked at 5. He signed a 3 year deal for 14 with the Browns.

 

Frankly, if you asked Whaley and Rex and Roman and David Lee if you just had to choose one of them to be the stopgap game manager of the Bills for a year or two if EJ didn't pan out, two of those four would say McCown and two of those four would say Cassel. And I have no idea which two.

 

But again, within a couple weeks, they declined McCown 5 and paid Cassel 5.

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Re: salary:

The Browns are on the hook for over $6.25 million in guaranteed money for McCown.

 

The Bills are on the hook for $0 in guaranteed money for Cassel. They presumably do owe him a $100K workout bonus, but until the season starts they owe him nothing else.

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Re: salary:

The Browns are on the hook for over $6.25 million in guaranteed money for McCown.

 

The Bills are on the hook for $0 in guaranteed money for Cassel. They presumably do owe him a $100K workout bonus, but until the season starts they owe him nothing else.

bye Matt
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I think they don't really like either. I think they really didn't want to give up any draft picks to get a QB in this draft because they were down two so their preferred option at the time with equal guys was to choose McCown and pay him 3-4 mil on a 1-2 year deal. They balked at 5. He signed a 3 year deal for 14 with the Browns.

 

Frankly, if you asked Whaley and Rex and Roman and David Lee if you just had to choose one of them to be the stopgap game manager of the Bills for a year or two if EJ didn't pan out, two of those four would say McCown and two of those four would say Cassel. And I have no idea which two.

 

But again, within a couple weeks, they declined McCown 5 and paid Cassel 5.

A clarification: They balked at paying $6.25 million in guaranteed money and went or a guy owed $0 in guaranteed money.

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Re: salary:

The Browns are on the hook for over $6.25 million in guaranteed money for McCown.

 

The Bills are on the hook for $0 in guaranteed money for Cassel. They presumably do owe him a $100K workout bonus, but until the season starts they owe him nothing else.

Unless you really think they are going into the regular season with EJ and Taylor, which is highly unlikely, they owe him 5+m.

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bye Matt

I sort of expect him to win the starting job (but who really knows), but if he stinks it up in preseason I wouldn't be shocked at all if he is cut given the money involved.

Unless you really think they are going into the regular season with EJ and Taylor, which is highly unlikely, they owe him 5+m.

That I don't know the answer to. I think that if he stinks, they may simply cut him. We don't know how his foot is affecting him. As I've said numerous times, it's not an insignificant injury, especially for an older guy.

Edited by dave mcbride
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I sort of expect him to win the starting job (but who really knows), but if he stinks it up in preseason I wouldn't be shocked at all if he is cut given the money involved.

That I don't know the answer to. I think that if he stinks, they may simply cut him. We don't know how his foot is affecting him. As I've said numerous times, it's not an insignificant injury, especially for an older guy.

He said he is 100% and doesn't feel it. They kept all kinds of guys out of voluntary and mandatory OTAs who are already back to near or even 100% as precautionary, like Watkins and Leodis. There have been no reports of favoring the foot.

 

I actually HOPE he is cut, believe me. I don't think he is any good. He has played well enough when he was on a good team, which has been quite rare in the last 6-7 years. McCown, IMO, sucks worse. After last season, McCown was cut. Cassel was not.

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He said he is 100% and doesn't feel it. They kept all kinds of guys out of voluntary and mandatory OTAs who are already back to near or even 100% as precautionary, like Watkins and Leodis. There have been no reports of favoring the foot.

 

I actually HOPE he is cut, believe me. I don't think he is any good. He has played well enough when he was on a good team, which has been quite rare in the last 6-7 years. McCown, IMO, sucks worse. After last season, McCown was cut. Cassel was not.

I believe him when he says that he feels fine, but at the same time it's the sort of injury that has the potential to affect the oomph you can put into a throw. Legs/feet are important for a QB, especially w/regard to velocity and power. I don't know how bad the break was, or whether it was a "important" bone or not. But it is certainly something to watch. Bodies age and decline in the 30s, and broken bones in your feet generally tend to augment that process.

 

I DON'T hope he gets cut. I want to be wrong and for him to be good. (But it sounds like he's looking pretty weak in OTAs.)

Edited by dave mcbride
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I believe Cassel > McCown and I cannot be accused of homerism because it is somewhere here on this board in the archives in black and white when they were both FA at the end of 2013 and we were without a proper vet I was pro us trying to sign Cassel and anti us chasing McCown (Cassel re-signed with the Vikes). I also agree with Yolo that I think Kromer probably pushed for McCown and convinced Roman there was a way they could win with him. However, Cassel has to pick his game up I think to win this job.

 

The reason I think Cassel is better is that when you look at their careers they have both started games in 7 different NFL seasons and if you remove the outliers (take out each guys worst season and each guys best season) what you are left with is Cassel with a passer rating of 76.8 and only 2 seasons with a negative TD:INT ration whereas McCown has 71.8 passer rating and 5 seasons with a negative TD:INT ratio. Basically, except for that one year in Chicago McCown has sucked. That for me makes that one year too much of an outlier to factor into my assessments of their respective ability. So take that away and take away Cassel's best year then take away both of their worst for fairness and Cassel looks the better bet.

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Cassel the last 4 seasons: 30 TDs, 34 INTs, 5745 yards, 515 completions, 871 attempts, and a 59.1% completion rate. His QBR: 74.1. That's hardly average, and it's a big sample size. In today's NFL, it flat out sucks. The teams he's QB'd have gone 9-17 over that time period.

 

McCown the last 4 seasons: 26 TDs, 19 INTs, 4449 yards, 368 completions, 606 attempts, and a 60.7% completion rate. His QBR: 84.5. The teams he's QB'd for have gone 5-13 in that time period.

 

Wait, is this ground hog day? Didn't we have a discussion a bit back about why pick the last 4 seasons? Why not 5? or 3? or 2? What's special about 4?

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