Cassel's "Ceiling"

[Dibs]

has anyone checked this out on EJ Manuel? Did anyone from do this?

 

 

 

There are 4 of these on you tube...thoughts?

Probably should have its own thread with all 4 linked. Bound to generate a lot of opinions.

[BillsFan-4-Ever]

from what I heard this AM

Rex will not make a QB decision until (after) he see's all QB's in live game action

[Kirby Jackson]

from what I heard this AM

Rex will not make a QB decision until (after) he see's all QB's in live game action

This feels like a situation that won't be settled until after the 3rd preseason game (unless someone blows them away).

[BillsFan-4-Ever]

This feels like a situation that won't be settled until after the 3rd preseason game (unless someone blows them away).

it will add a dimension to the games and how they are played WRT the starting QB.

 

1st game the starters get a few series?, 2nd game about a quarter, 3rd game over a Qrt and 4th mainly scrubs throughout, no?

[Kirby Jackson]

it will add a dimension to the games and how they are played WRT the starting QB.

 

1st game the starters get a few series?, 2nd game about a quarter, 3rd game over a Qrt and 4th mainly scrubs throughout, no?

Yeah, that sounds about right. My guess is that the 3 QBs all get a 1st quarter, a 2nd quarter and a 3rd quarter. The 4th could fall any number of ways depending on where Tuel is. If this is legitimately a wide-open 3 man competition that feels like the best option to me.

[1billsfan]

 

Oh, come now. I love stats, everyone here knows that, but this is Stat Abuse. In the last 4 years, Cassel has started 26 games, meaning he has thrown 1.15 TD/game

In the last 4 years, Fitzpatrick has started 53 games, almost twice as many as Cassel, meaning he has thrown 1.49 TD/game, still more than Cassel but not as impressive when you look at it that way.

 

But wait there's more. One of the first questions in statistics when choosing a data set, is, why that data set? Why the last 4 years?

Cassel had a Really Good Year 5 years ago in a run-first offense captained by Charlie Weis.

Last year, in a run-first offense heavy on Arian Foster, Fitz happened to have the best year of his 10 year professional career (and he still got benched partway through the season).

If want a reasonable comparison, why not go back 5 years?

 

Next question, are you looking at a meaningful statistic? Does the # of TD a QB throws really impact the chances of their winning? With the Bills, Fitz was slinging the ball all over, throwing lots of TDs - and lots of INTs, too.

 

Three metrics which do correlate with wins are a QB's completion percentage, the # of turnovers he has per game (INT plus fumbles), and his TD/INT ratio (if he's airing it out, does he score you points more than he loses you the ball?).

 

If you look at those metrics and look back 5 years, you might still prefer Fitz to Cassel, statistically speaking But at least it would be a more realistic comparison.

 

Doesn't matter. Fitz wore out his welcome here. Some pundit put it that Fitzpatrick has a track record of teams moving on because he's not good enough as a long term starter, but then not managing to replace him with someone as good. Some truth to that.

 

There's a tale of two veteran QBs in those "starts" stats. Fitzpatrick had been on the ascent the last four years while Cassel has been on the descent. IMO Cassel hasn't fully recovered professionally since being benched for Brady Quinn. Meanwhile, Fitzpatrick has been a "balls to the wall" warrior (a flawed one, yes) in these last four years.

 

In short, IMO Fitzpatrick still has some fight left in him while Cassel doesn't. Only real games will tell the tale though. If he wins the job then we shall see if he plays as good as he thinks he will play.

[metzelaars_lives]

hey trolls

 

 

The New York Jets have released quarterback Matt Simms, who backed up starter Geno Smith the past two seasons.

 

what cha think

Not convinced EJ could beat out Matt Simms for a starting job. EJ Manuel has had 14 starts, Matt Simms has had 0. That should give Simms way more credibility with the EJ dreamers. That's what I think.

[TheFunPolice]

EJ is going to have a tough hill to climb.

 

You can hear it and see it in the body language and phrasing from these coaches. It's like they are saying "well, you never know I guess" in so many words.

 

I hope EJ turns out to be great this preseason because it means we have an answer at QB, which means the chance of making a few deep runs in the post-season. I just don't see it happening.

[CardinalScotts]

He's a lot like Kyle Orton with better mobility. Plug in physical, nasty, possibly good offensive line, a creative offensive coordinator who knows how to call plays, a play making tight end, and another pass catcher no more lee smith. More big play makers and speed at wide out and do it all running back who shows up every week combined with the plus side options last year. Jackson in a defined role, Sammy Watkins healthy and in year two, Robert Woods making hay off off the Watkins Harvin threat - this offense will be very tough with Manuel or Cassel. The competent Offensive Coordinator will be a huge change to put with the upgrade of talent. Some act like Cassel can't throw a forward pass, he'll be fine - he's smart with the football and can get it to play makers. Then you figure in the defense and special teams.

[OldTimer1960]

He's a lot like Kyle Orton with better mobility. Plug in physical, nasty, possibly good offensive line, a creative offensive coordinator who knows how to call plays, a play making tight end, and another pass catcher no more lee smith. More big play makers and speed at wide out and do it all running back who shows up every week combined with the plus side options last year. Jackson in a defined role, Sammy Watkins healthy and in year two, Robert Woods making hay off off the Watkins Harvin threat - this offense will be very tough with Manuel or Cassel. The competent Offensive Coordinator will be a huge change to put with the upgrade of talent. Some act like Cassel can't throw a forward pass, he'll be fine - he's smart with the football and can get it to play makers. Then you figure in the defense and special teams.

What defines “smart with the football”? Seems to me a strongly positive TD to INT ratio would be a good indicator. That is NOT what Matt Cassel has shown over his last 30 NFL games.

[Dorkington]

has anyone checked this out on EJ Manuel? Did anyone from do this?

 

https://youtu.be/3c5HTvR1dts

 

 

There are 4 of these on you tube...thoughts?

Thanks for the link, will be watching shortly.

 

Edit: This guy is a little biased towards EJ, as he doesn't really hold EJ at fault for passes that are off the mark very often.

Edited May 29, 2015 by Dorkington

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Pretty much every level headed Bills fan should think this.

 

Not sure why so many are invested in attaching themselves to QB A or QB B.

 

Ditto

 

Why?

 

EJ is still relatively inexperienced. It has been commented that a veteran, however overall mediocre, will often "win" a QB competition in preseason because the vet is faster to pick up a new offense and make the reads. Experience does matter for how quickly that happens.

 

If I heard "glowing reviews" of EJ on the 1st media day, I would assume that they hadn't finished installing the O yet and were keeping it really simple for him.

 

What we want to see is what's there towards the end of training camp and in preseason.

 

 

Hopeful.....

 

I have been on the EJ train as much as anyone here.....

 

He is in his 3rd year....

 

He is no longer a rookie

 

I agree, EJ is no longer a rookie. He has also only played in 14 games in 1 offensive system for 1 set of coaches. Do you think the term "relatively inexperienced" doesn't apply or that those 14 games and 1 set of coaches will help him pick up a new offense and "show glowing reviews" on day 1 of OTA more than a 10 yr vet who has played for multiple coaches in multiple systems on 4 different teams?

 

Not sure what your point is?

Edited May 29, 2015 by Hopeful

[Prickly Pete]

Pretty much every level headed Bills fan should think this.

 

Not sure why so many are invested in attaching themselves to QB A or QB B.

 

Because most have either been trashing EJM, or insisting that he still has potential, for a few years on this board. They want to be right.

 

I have no preference, but I expect EJM to be the starter.

[metzelaars_lives]

Thanks for the link, will be watching shortly.

 

Edit: This guy is a little biased towards EJ, as he doesn't really hold EJ at fault for passes that are off the mark very often.

That's gotta be the case at least a little bit. I watched all four of them and I was thinking to myself, maybe EJ wasn't as bad as I remember him being last year. I wasn't really sure what to think. Cause I remember him being pretty bad.

Edited May 29, 2015 by metzelaars_lives

[Hapless Bills Fan]

has anyone checked this out on EJ Manuel? Did anyone from do this?

 

https://youtu.be/3c5HTvR1dts

 

 

There are 4 of these on you tube...thoughts?

 

Thought #1: Man our line sucked. Worse than I remember.

Thought #2: I think his analysis is a little shallow. For example at times there appear to be open receivers downfield at the point where EJ dumps off. With full speed film, I can't really see if EJ had a lane to hit any of them - might have resulted in a batted pass or the like - but those possiblities don't seem to be considered.

[FireChan]

Cassel!

[OldTimer1960]

Because most have either been trashing EJM, or insisting that he still has potential, for a few years on this board. They want to be right.

 

I have no preference, but I expect EJM to be the starter.

My view is that Manuel generally was OK as a rookie and was not that good last year. How much of that was that the coaches sucked the confidence out of him or that defenses took away some of the things he liked to do? - I don't know.

 

I am pulling for Manuel because:

1. He is a hard worker and has the right work ethic to succeed

2. He has the best combination of size, speed and arm strength on this team

3. He is inexperienced enough to at least *hope* that he can show significant improvement

 

My second choice is Taylor because:

1. He hasn't proven that he can't play well at the NFL level, so there is hope that he could turn out to be good

2. He has speed and arm strength, but lacks desired height and girth

3. In short, there is a little hope in the unknown

 

My last choice is Cassel because:

1. He has proven in several opportunities to not be very good

2. Importantly, he has been bad for the LAST FOUR YEARS

3. He has proven that he isn't the guy to minimize turnovers with a negative TD to INT ratio in his last 30 starts

4. His last miracle season was HALF A DECADE ago

I think it is very unlikely that he reproduces anything close to his miracle 2010 season and there is a lot of recent evidence that he is no better than what Manuel produced in his first 14 games

 

Really, the Bills' QB situation is depressing, I just think the less experienced two have some physical talent and *might* be able to put it together whereas I think the last 4 years and 30 games have pretty much proven that Cassel isn't a good NFL starting QB

[BillsFan-4-Ever]

you were saying

Rex had Matt Simms and wasn't a fan.

 

I must be the new Leroi

 

 

Imo

Edited May 30, 2015 by BillsFan-4-Ever

[C.Biscuit97]

My view is that Manuel generally was OK as a rookie and was not that good last year. How much of that was that the coaches sucked the confidence out of him or that defenses took away some of the things he liked to do? - I don't know.

 

I am pulling for Manuel because:

1. He is a hard worker and has the right work ethic to succeed

2. He has the best combination of size, speed and arm strength on this team

3. He is inexperienced enough to at least *hope* that he can show significant improvement

 

My second choice is Taylor because:

1. He hasn't proven that he can't play well at the NFL level, so there is hope that he could turn out to be good

2. He has speed and arm strength, but lacks desired height and girth

3. In short, there is a little hope in the unknown

 

My last choice is Cassel because:

1. He has proven in several opportunities to not be very good

2. Importantly, he has been bad for the LAST FOUR YEARS

3. He has proven that he isn't the guy to minimize turnovers with a negative TD to INT ratio in his last 30 starts

4. His last miracle season was HALF A DECADE ago

I think it is very unlikely that he reproduces anything close to his miracle 2010 season and there is a lot of recent evidence that he is no better than what Manuel produced in his first 14 games

 

Really, the Bills' QB situation is depressing, I just think the less experienced two have some physical talent and *might* be able to put it together whereas I think the last 4 years and 30 games have pretty much proven that Cassel isn't a good NFL starting QB

Very well stated. I'd rather have the unproven qb than the proven mediocre at best passed around veteran.

 

In reality, our team is going to make it hard for a qb to lose us games. But the upside with running that Manuel or Taylor could offer is so much more exciting than Cassel.

 

You can always fall back to Cassel.

[FireChan]

Very well stated. I'd rather have the unproven qb than the proven mediocre at best passed around veteran.

 

In reality, our team is going to make it hard for a qb to lose us games. But the upside with running that Manuel or Taylor could offer is so much more exciting than Cassel.

 

You can always fall back to Cassel.

If we're in a position to have to fall back to Cassel, we're probably in a hole already. I want post season.