Was the trade for Watkins worth it?

[JohnC]

I like Bridgewater but his arm does scare me a bit. I know that it's not about having a rocket arm but he throws pop flies on deep passes. I also don't think people factor in how much of an advantage it is to have Norv Turner as your rookie OC instead of Nate Hackett. That is a giantic advantage. And Bridgewater is better but 14 tds -12 ints isn't that much better than EJ's 11 tds - 9 ints.

 

And we need to stop making giant conclusions after 1 year. There is so much left to see. But if the Watkins trade helped forced Marrone out the door, then it might already be worth it.

There are no guarantees of long-term success especially after one season. I'm not declaring that he will develop into an elite qb. But from what I have seen I believe that he will be a better qb than any of our current qbs. I'll say the same about Carr from Oakland. I would take him over any of our qbs. Am I making an early assessment? Of course. I'm comfortable in saying that I would prefer Carr or Bridgewater entering their second year over any of our collection of qbs.

[C.Biscuit97]

There are no guarantees of long-term success especially after one season. I'm not declaring that he will develop into an elite qb. But from what I have seen I believe that he will be a better qb than any of our current qbs. I'll say the same about Carr from Oakland. I would take him over any of our qbs. Am I making an early assessment? Of course. I'm comfortable in saying that I would prefer Carr or Bridgewater entering their second year over any of our collection of qbs.

I think after the rookie years, EJ, Carr, and Bridgewater was very similar. I think EJ was handcuffed by bad coaches who are now assistant offensive coaches in Jacksonville.

 

If EJ fails with Roman, then it's time to move on. But I want to give him a chance with a real NFL offensive coaching staff.

[eball]

There are no guarantees of long-term success especially after one season. I'm not declaring that he will develop into an elite qb. But from what I have seen I believe that he will be a better qb than any of our current qbs. I'll say the same about Carr from Oakland. I would take him over any of our qbs. Am I making an early assessment? Of course. I'm comfortable in saying that I would prefer Carr or Bridgewater entering their second year over any of our collection of qbs.

 

I wonder if you'd be saying that had Bridgewater or Carr received the same coaching EJ has...and I thought EJ looked just as good as either of those QBs during his rookie season.

[Wayne Cubed]

 

Would you find it odd if the Bills' do the same? I'm kind of expecting it as you know.

 

Not really, Bills need some depth at DL and Kyle Williams isn't getting any younger. Also the Bills are drafting in the 2nd, if the Jest drafted a DL in the 2nd it wouldn't have been as odd but they have Wilkerson who's 25 and due a new contract. He was a 1st round draft pick. They have Richardson who's 24 and was a 1st round pick. They also have Harrison.

 

And now they have Williams. If you count Couples, that's a lot of 1st round investment in the DL.

 

It'll be impossible for them to keep them all, Wilkerson seems upset already, and their DL was the strength of the team. I know Williams was easily the BPA and I'm sure the Jest didn't expect him to be there but it seems like the move there was to move down.

 

Bowles is a 3-4 guy with Harrison occupying the NT and you would assume Wilkerson and Richardson still hold their positions, Williams almost becomes a rotational guy. The #6 overall pick on a rotational guy? Just seems odd.

[thebandit27]

 

Not really, Bills need some depth at DL and Kyle Williams isn't getting any younger. Also the Bills are drafting in the 2nd, if the Jest drafted a DL in the 2nd it wouldn't have been as odd but they have Wilkerson who's 25 and due a new contract. He was a 1st round draft pick. They have Richardson who's 24 and was a 1st round pick. They also have Harrison.

 

And now they have Williams. If you count Couples, that's a lot of 1st round investment in the DL.

 

It'll be impossible for them to keep them all, Wilkerson seems upset already, and their DL was the strength of the team. I know Williams was easily the BPA and I'm sure the Jest didn't expect him to be there but it seems like the move there was to move down.

 

Bowles is a 3-4 guy with Harrison occupying the NT and you would assume Wilkerson and Richardson still hold their positions, Williams almost becomes a rotational guy. The #6 overall pick on a rotational guy? Just seems odd.

 

Totally agree...the value of the player was there, and so they had to take him.

 

I'm almost expecting to see Wilkerson get traded now.

[dave mcbride]

I like Bridgewater but his arm does scare me a bit. I know that it's not about having a rocket arm but he throws pop flies on deep passes. I also don't think people factor in how much of an advantage it is to have Norv Turner as your rookie OC instead of Nate Hackett. That is a giantic advantage. And Bridgewater is better but 14 tds -12 ints isn't that much better than EJ's 11 tds - 9 ints.

 

And we need to stop making giant conclusions after 1 year. There is so much left to see. But if the Watkins trade helped forced Marrone out the door, then it might already be worth it.

I agree with you about the superiority of Turner over Hackett (obviously), but bear in mind that Turner has always prioritized accuracy on intermediate-to-deep throws for his QBs. My understanding is that he doesn't tolerate QBs that aren't accurate on the deeper stuff given his Coryell/Zampese training and his experience with Aikman and later Rivers. I don't know how much coaching and/or better coordinating can help an inaccurate thrower - or whether a coordinator who prizes accuracy above all else would tolerate an inaccurate intermediate-to-deep thrower at all.

 

My point is that while you raise Turner a lot as an alternative, just because he's a better coordinator doesn't mean that Manuel would have performed better under him. He may have gone to the bench faster for all we know.

Edited May 1, 2015 by dave mcbride

[eball]

I agree with you about the superiority of Turner over Hackett (obviously), but bear in mind that Turner has always prioritized accuracy on intermediate-to-deep throws for his QBs. My understanding is that he doesn't tolerate QBs that aren't accurate on the deeper stuff given his Coryell/Zampese training and his experience with Aikman and later Rivers. I don't know how much coaching and/or better coordinating can help an inaccurate thrower - or whether a coordinator who prizes accuracy above all else would tolerate an inaccurate intermediate-to-deep thrower at all.

 

My point is that while you raise Turner a lot as an alternative, just because he's a better coordinator doesn't mean that Manuel would have performed better under him. He may have gone to the bench faster for all we know.

 

All I have to do is go back and watch several of the throws EJ made in his first regular season game as a pro against the Pats* to know he has the ability to make the intermediate throws with accuracy. The "drop it into a bucket" TD to Stevie, the "throw him open" pass to Chandler down the seam, and the TD to Woods. Those were all big-time, accurate tosses. I think Marrone absolutely killed EJ with his coaching.

[dave mcbride]

 

All I have to do is go back and watch several of the throws EJ made in his first regular season game as a pro against the Pats* to know he has the ability to make the intermediate throws with accuracy. The "drop it into a bucket" TD to Stevie, the "throw him open" pass to Chandler down the seam, and the TD to Woods. Those were all big-time, accurate tosses. I think Marrone absolutely killed EJ with his coaching.

 

It's a numbers game though -- what are the percentages? Even an inaccurate QB is going to hit some deep throws -- it's the law of averages. The throw to Woods shouldn't count, btw - he was completely wide open and you yourself could probably have made that throw.

[eball]

 

It's a numbers game though -- what are the percentages? Even an inaccurate QB is going to hit some deep throws -- it's the law of averages. The throw to Woods shouldn't count, btw - he was completely wide open and you yourself could probably have made that throw.

 

All we can say at this point is, "we'll see."

[dave mcbride]

 

All we can say at this point is, "we'll see."

Yep, and I really do hope he puts it together. Unlike some, I do think it is possible for throwers to become more accurate. I see it in baseball all of the time. Just look at Dellin Betances.

[Kelly the Dog]

Yep, and I really do hope he puts it together. Unlike some, I do think it is possible for throwers to become more accurate. I see it in baseball all of the time. Just look at Dellin Betances.

I said yesterday that EJ needs to take three major steps in order to become a franchise QB, and it's possible that he cannot do any of them. Two of them are accuracy. One is that he needs to be able to read defenses/process info quick/make good decisions/get the ball out quick. That is what we were referring to as the light going on. He doesn't do any of those yet but it's possible.

 

Then he has to get back up to his college accuracy level, which I called "completion percentage accuracy." That means getting the ball to WRs so they can catch it in their hands. He's not there yet but he's very capable of it. That, combined with the one above, would get him to mid level starter.

 

But what he really needs to do, and what he has never been able to consistently do, is become a YAC accurate passer, able to hit guys on the numbers consistently so without breaking stride they can explode. Then and only then would he be a franchise guy. All three are tough. I don't give him a good chance but he has a chance. He has the skills, the tools and the work ethic. He may just not be able to do it because there are only a little more than a dozen guys in the world that really can.

[Lurker]

Hard to believe this thread is up to 14 pages (but then again, this is TSW, so maybe not).

 

I suspect a lot of teams would like to be able to say this about a drafted rookie--yet, not too many can:

 

[dave mcbride]

I said yesterday that EJ needs to take three major steps in order to become a franchise QB, and it's possible that he cannot do any of them. Two of them are accuracy. One is that he needs to be able to read defenses/process info quick/make good decisions/get the ball out quick. That is what we were referring to as the light going on. He doesn't do any of those yet but it's possible.

 

Then he has to get back up to his college accuracy level, which I called "completion percentage accuracy." That means getting the ball to WRs so they can catch it in their hands. He's not there yet but he's very capable of it. That, combined with the one above, would get him to mid level starter.

 

But what he really needs to do, and what he has never been able to consistently do, is become a YAC accurate passer, able to hit guys on the numbers consistently so without breaking stride they can explode. Then and only then would he be a franchise guy. All three are tough. I don't give him a good chance but he has a chance. He has the skills, the tools and the work ethic. He may just not be able to do it because there are only a little more than a dozen guys in the world that really can.

I think issue three is closely related to the first two and in fact drives them. If you can't see it until too late, you rush the throw.

[Kelly the Dog]

I think issue three is closely related to the first two and in fact drives them. If you can't see it until too late, you rush the throw.

Yep. It's cumulative. You have to be able to do one, then get to two, then get to three (as one improves even more).

[Lurker]

Well here it is from the other side --

Tweets from cleveland sports media

 

@BHOOLZ: Farmer traded Mike Evans/Sammy Watkins for an OL a year later. Think about that.

 

@BHOOLZ: So, Farmer would rather have an OL at 19 in 2015 than Sammy Watkins on the field in 2014 and beyond tells you everything you need to know

Man, the Browns front office is questionable.

 

Too bad that wasn't a text, rather than a tweet....

My thoughts last night were that a lot of teams drafted players in the 1st who need to replace guys they lost in FA, traded, retired, etc. I think the old bills would have let hughes walk and take a pass rusher in the 1st. To me that's not improvement, it's treading water.

I had the same thought. It's becoming really hard to keep star players beyond their first contract and a lot of bad teams without franchise QB's continue to let good players leave and then have to replace them.

 

It's a self-reinforcing cycle that the Bills have been guilty of for too long as well...

[dave mcbride]

Yep. It's cumulative. You have to be able to do one, then get to two, then get to three (as one improves even more).

That's why it's a bit worrying that Ryan is publicly flagging the slowness in EJ's game at the OTAs. That's gotta end if he is to have any hope. He's been playing QB for a long time now going to his bigtime college days, and the light simply has to go on soon. If it's not on by mid-October, I'm probably going to throw in the towel.

Edited May 1, 2015 by dave mcbride

[Kelly the Dog]

That's why it's a bit worrying that Ryan is publicly flagging the slowness in EJ's game at the OTAs. That's gotta end if he is to have any hope. He's been playing QB for a long time now going to his bigtime college days, and the light simply has to go on soon. If it's not on by mid-October, I'm probably going to throw in the towel.

As I said before when you brought that up, Ryan wasn't saying that. He was commenting that they want him to throw the ball before the Wr breaks. It wasn't slowness of decision or processing information or getting the ball out of his hand in his release. They wanted him to trust the receivers were going to be there and throw it a tenth of a second earlier the way Cassel was. That is not at all his big issue.

[dave mcbride]

As I said before when you brought that up, Ryan wasn't saying that. He was commenting that they want him to throw the ball before the Wr breaks. It wasn't slowness of decision or processing information or getting the ball out of his hand in his release. They wanted him to trust the receivers were going to be there and throw it a tenth of a second earlier the way Cassel was. That is not at all his big issue.

Aren't these the same thing - anticipating with your mind (i.e., projecting) rather than relying on what's in plain sight? I think you're dissociating things that are in fact associated.

 

EDIT: Maybe we should ask JW? http://pro32.ap.org/article/quarterback-ej-manuel-still-has-plenty-prove-bills

Edited May 1, 2015 by dave mcbride

[Lurker]

Aren't these the same thing - anticipating with your mind (i.e., projecting) rather than relying on what's in plain sight? I think you're dissociating things that are in fact associated.

I'd see it as having confidence that your receiver will run the right route and end up where the ball is going to be.

 

In that respect, Stevie probably set E.J. back a bunch in his rookie year...

[Matt in KC]

Kelly, I get your points, and largely agree. I just think it's hilarious that these are the 3 areas you think EJ needs to improve: the first 2 are both accuracy and the last one is to read defenses, process info quickly, make good decisions, and get the ball out quick.

 

I tend to think his top areas for improvement are:

1. Accuracy
2. Leadership
3. Decisiveness
4. Accuracy
5. Ability to read Defenses
6. Urgency
7. Leadership
8. and last but not least: Accuracy on long passes

 

I don't think we're too far apart!