YoloinOhio Posted April 4, 2015 Share Posted April 4, 2015 (edited) Rex 16th. Marrone 29th. http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2015/aggressiveness-index-2014 Aggressiveness Index numbers center around 1.0 and generally describe how much more (or less) likely each coach is to go for it on fourth down compared to his peers; for example, a coach with 1.20 AI is roughly 20 percent more likely to go for it than an average coach in equivalent situations. The Aggressiveness Index excludes obvious catch-up situations: third quarter, trailing by 15 or more points; fourth quarter, trailing by nine or more points; and in the last five minutes of the game, trailing by any amount. AI was expanded two years ago to include plays when the offense is on its own side of the field, excluding those obvious catch-up situations. Edited April 4, 2015 by YoloinOhio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rafter Posted April 4, 2015 Share Posted April 4, 2015 I think Rex would've been even more aggressive if he had a reliable O. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoloinOhio Posted April 4, 2015 Author Share Posted April 4, 2015 Looking at the stats and situational write ups on Payton, it's so hard to believe marrone was his understudy at one point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted April 4, 2015 Share Posted April 4, 2015 Rex 16th. Marrone 29th. http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2015/aggressiveness-index-2014 Aggressiveness Index numbers center around 1.0 and generally describe how much more (or less) likely each coach is to go for it on fourth down compared to his peers; for example, a coach with 1.20 AI is roughly 20 percent more likely to go for it than an average coach in equivalent situations. The Aggressiveness Index excludes obvious catch-up situations: third quarter, trailing by 15 or more points; fourth quarter, trailing by nine or more points; and in the last five minutes of the game, trailing by any amount. AI was expanded two years ago to include plays when the offense is on its own side of the field, excluding those obvious catch-up situations. Begs the question which 3 are bigger weinies than Marrone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ko12010 Posted April 4, 2015 Share Posted April 4, 2015 Looking at the stats and situational write ups on Payton, it's so hard to believe marrone was his understudy at one point. Marrone just must be so arrogant he believed his philosophies would prove better than some of the great coaches he's worked under/connected to. I mean, how do you not copy Payton or implement more of what he did, especially on offense, once you get your own NFL head coaching gig? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoloinOhio Posted April 4, 2015 Author Share Posted April 4, 2015 Begs the question which 3 are bigger weinies than Marrone well two are fired - dennis Allen and mike smith. The other is Mike McCoy and he truly is Doug Marrone West with his punting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beef Jerky Posted April 4, 2015 Share Posted April 4, 2015 Rex knows his defense will be amazing so.he will push the envelope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloBillsForever Posted April 4, 2015 Share Posted April 4, 2015 (edited) Looking at the stats and situational write ups on Payton, it's so hard to believe marrone was his understudy at one point. Marrone was never Paytons understudy. He was an o-line coach for petes sake with the title of offensive coordinator. With regards to the aggressive index it seems like Rex is all over the place. The good thing is when his Jets teams were good he was very aggressive. Top tier in the aggressive index I believe. Edited April 4, 2015 by BuffaloBillsForever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BisonMan Posted April 4, 2015 Share Posted April 4, 2015 Besides the limitations mentioned in the article, the methodology doesn't seem to include the most important factors in deciding whether to "go for it" in certain situations; the strength of the coach's offense and defense. It is no surprise that teams like Buffalo, Arizona, St. Louis and Oakland would kick in "go for it" situations. Each had anemic offenses in 2014. Three of these teams also had very good defenses, which the coaches smartly counted on to get the ball back. Rex is actually more aggressive given these factors than the chart gives him credit for. He had a crappy offense and a great defense but was still about "average" in aggressiveness according to this scale. To me, that makes him very aggressive. Who can fault teams like Denver, NO, New England and Green Bay for going for it with their productive offenses? Their likelihood of success is much higher than the Bills. Factoring in the strength of the coach's offense makes teams like Washington, Tennessee and Houston look VERY aggressive and teams like San Diego and Dallas look extra cautious. Finally, the sampling size in this analysis is very small. That tends to skew the results for teams with few opportunities to be "aggressive". Oakland had only 6 instances of 4th and 2 or less to go or 4th downs at the opponent's 31-37 yard line. Going for it just once in those opportunities would significantly affect their rating on this scale. This is an interesting thing to study but was executed poorly by Football Outsiders, which I usually like reading. My 2 cents. EdW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Punching Bag Posted April 4, 2015 Share Posted April 4, 2015 A factor should be strength of offense and defense vs opponent's strength of offense and defense. If you have stronger offense than opponent's defense you are more likely to go for it; if defense is your strength less likely to do so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stinky finger Posted April 4, 2015 Share Posted April 4, 2015 Rex knows his defense will be amazing so.he will push the envelope. Agreed. That and I truly believe he reassesses how he's conducted business in the past. That's not to say he becomes careless, but just more aggressive on the offensive side. Rex putting trust in his offense as he does his D could prove beneficial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miyagi-Do Karate Posted April 4, 2015 Share Posted April 4, 2015 This is fascinating, because aggressiveness can be explained by a lot of different variables-- eg, 1) having a bad or great QB and/or offense 2) having a bad or great defense 3) coaching style and risk tolerance 4) game situation 5) analytics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vincec Posted April 4, 2015 Share Posted April 4, 2015 It's interesting to see Marty Schottenhiemer with the #4 most aggressive season on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pete Posted April 4, 2015 Share Posted April 4, 2015 Capitulate Doug loves to punt on 4th and 1 late in game instead of trying to win. !@#$ that arrogant prick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted April 4, 2015 Share Posted April 4, 2015 Marrone just must be so arrogant he believed his philosophies would prove better than some of the great coaches he's worked under/connected to. I mean, how do you not copy Payton or implement more of what he did, especially on offense, once you get your own NFL head coaching gig? Sean Payton has Drew Brees. Doug had Kyle Orton. I don't think he got every punt / not to punt decision right by any means, but I think he got far too much stick for some of those calls on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsfan89 Posted April 4, 2015 Share Posted April 4, 2015 Sean Payton has Drew Brees. Doug had Kyle Orton. I don't think he got every punt / not to punt decision right by any means, but I think he got far too much stick for some of those calls on here. Context of stats is very important. When your defense is really good and your offense is limited it's going to lead to more conservative calls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billykaykay Posted April 4, 2015 Share Posted April 4, 2015 Marrone just must be so arrogant he believed his philosophies would prove better than some of the great coaches he's worked under/connected to. I mean, how do you not copy Payton or implement more of what he did, especially on offense, once you get your own NFL head coaching gig? We didn't have Drew Breese. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted April 4, 2015 Share Posted April 4, 2015 Context of stats is very important. When your defense is really good and your offense is limited it's going to lead to more conservative calls. Yep. My view for example differed from most on here on the two 4th down decisions against Denver. I thought Marrone got the early "go for it" wrong and the later "punt" right. Most disagreed. When a game is on the line I want my strength on the field as far as possible I don't want to ask my weakness to do things they are not good at. Marrone's strength was the defense.... therefore play with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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