Combine and Pro Day Workouts. Really?

[r henderson]

How many times have teams evaluated and drafted players based on their performance at the combines and workouts? Every year someone blows away the coaching staffs with incredible numbers (JaMarcus Russell rings a bell) and all of a sudden their at the top of the draft board. The proof is in the pudding. Game film does not lie! I believe that too many teams get caught up in the measurables and are not trusting the tapes. Don't get me wrong in saying that the workouts are not useful. A lot of the Pro Days are scripted workouts used to enhance the players strong points. Which is a good tactic for raising a players stock, but they really don't give the coaching staffs a players true value. Again "The Tape Don't Lie"

[Kirby Jackson]

How many times have teams evaluated and drafted players based on their performance at the combines and workouts? Every year someone blows away the coaching staffs with incredible numbers (JaMarcus Russell rings a bell) and all of a sudden their at the top of the draft board. The proof is in the pudding. Game film does not lie! I believe that too many teams get caught up in the measurables and are not trusting the tapes. Don't get me wrong in saying that the workouts are not useful. A lot of the Pro Days are scripted workouts used to enhance the players strong points. Which is a good tactic for raising a players stock, but they really don't give the coaching staffs a players true value. Again "The Tape Don't Lie"

There is some truth to that but it isn't absolute. Dontari Poe is a great example on the other side. He started climbing because of his freakish athleticism and has turned into a great NFL player.

[Jauronimo]

How many times have teams evaluated and drafted players based on their performance at the combines and workouts? Every year someone blows away the coaching staffs with incredible numbers (JaMarcus Russell rings a bell) and all of a sudden their at the top of the draft board. The proof is in the pudding. Game film does not lie! I believe that too many teams get caught up in the measurables and are not trusting the tapes. Don't get me wrong in saying that the workouts are not useful. A lot of the Pro Days are scripted workouts used to enhance the players strong points. Which is a good tactic for raising a players stock, but they really don't give the coaching staffs a players true value. Again "The Tape Don't Lie"

What if based on film you have two players with very similar grades? Just because Oakland has demonstrated an uncanny ability to waste picks based on bench press and 40 yard times doesn't mean this information isn't useful. Game film in the hands of idiots is just as dangerous as workout/combine metrics in the hands of idiots.

[Chuck Wagon]

I think there's a fundamental lack of understanding of the process with some fans.

 

 

Teams have been scouting these players for a couple of seasons and actively scouting them for the last year. These players are not wildly fluctuating on a teams draft board based upon what they do in their underwear. Teams are not making their scouting reports public.

 

Independent of that process, draft "experts" are presenting information based upon their draft evaluations and creating their own draft boards. They are not doing this with the level of advanced scouting teams put in and are not privy to the standards teams use to rank their boards. People like McShay & Kiper start presenting big boards for the next season almost immediately after the draft is completed. Teams don't say a word about prospects all fall, yet the "gurus" are constantly tweaking their boards. Information does start coming out around the combine, though many savy teams use the media to spread misinformation. Once the information starts coming from teams, an "expert" will move the players around based upon the information they receive.

 

Realistically, Kiper and McShay don't know any more than the rest of us would if we didn't have real jobs and had all the time we wanted to watch college games and make our own databases. Kiper has been doing this for decades, if he had a respected opinion or an added level of insight some team would have made him an offer he couldn't refuse by this point. ESPN isn't paying more than a NFL team would if they believed there was a competitive edge to be gained.

 

Don't confuse "experts" refining their guesses once they start getting answers provided to them as wild player fluctuations on team draft boards based upon workouts.

[thebandit27]

How many times have teams evaluated and drafted players based on their performance at the combines and workouts? Every year someone blows away the coaching staffs with incredible numbers (JaMarcus Russell rings a bell) and all of a sudden their at the top of the draft board. The proof is in the pudding. Game film does not lie! I believe that too many teams get caught up in the measurables and are not trusting the tapes. Don't get me wrong in saying that the workouts are not useful. A lot of the Pro Days are scripted workouts used to enhance the players strong points. Which is a good tactic for raising a players stock, but they really don't give the coaching staffs a players true value. Again "The Tape Don't Lie"

 

The problem is that you're confusing the process with reality. You seem to be assuming that the workout, on it's face, is what vaults a player's draft status upward. It isn't.

 

What happens is that the GM and coach see the workout, are impressed, and subsequently choose to more closely scrutinize the scouts' work-up on the player. Upon further review of his tape, they assign a higher grade than the player previously had.

 

There is some truth to that but it isn't absolute. Dontari Poe is a great example on the other side. He started climbing because of his freakish athleticism and has turned into a great NFL player.

 

Oh man...I think Dontari Poe is incredibly over-rated. He's a decent pass rusher for a guy his size, but to be the de facto "run stuffing NT" for a 3-4 team, and to have that team rank dead last or next-to-last in YPC allowed in both years he's been the starter, does not speak highly of him.

 

I think we both agree that Eric Wood did not have a great year last year, and he manhandled Poe in the run game last year (and the year before for that matter).

[Chuck Wagon]

Here are two recent examples from Kiper.

 

In January of 2010 he mocked us to be taking Jimmy Clausen @ #9. Now we all know we didn't draft Jimmy Clausen at #9 and he didn't actually go until pick #48.

 

In January of 2011 he mocked Da'Quan Bowers to the Bengals at pick #4. Bowers actually went to the Bucs at pick #51.

 

 

Now what happened here? These are some extreme swings in player value. Did Jimmy and Da'Quan start running down grandmas in walmart parking lots a month before the draft? Did teams discover they were actually dealing drugs? Or did Mel Kiper not have a clue what he was talking about?

[KDIGGZ]

Julio Jones was a good college player but didn't have amazing stats or game tape because they were a run first team at Bama. But he showed some freakish athleticism at the combine and Atlanta saw the value in him and the rest is history. The combine and workouts are an accessory to the film. It helps form the overall picture and close any gaps you might have in evaluating someone

[John from Riverside]

What if you have a player who was injured in their senior year and teams want to see where they are at?

[OldTimer1960]

 

The problem is that you're confusing the process with reality. You seem to be assuming that the workout, on it's face, is what vaults a player's draft status upward. It isn't.

 

What happens is that the GM and coach see the workout, are impressed, and subsequently choose to more closely scrutinize the scouts' work-up on the player. Upon further review of his tape, they assign a higher grade than the player previously had.

 

 

Oh man...I think Dontari Poe is incredibly over-rated. He's a decent pass rusher for a guy his size, but to be the de facto "run stuffing NT" for a 3-4 team, and to have that team rank dead last or next-to-last in YPC allowed in both years he's been the starter, does not speak highly of him.

 

I think we both agree that Eric Wood did not have a great year last year, and he manhandled Poe in the run game last year (and the year before for that matter).

Not to be too argumentative as I haven't really watched Poe play much in the NFL, but weren't the Bills an awful run D a few years ago and they had Marcel Dareus and Kyle Williams. My point is that it is *possible* that Poe was doing his job tying up blockers, but his teammates weren't capable of holding up their end.

I think there's a fundamental lack of understanding of the process with some fans.

 

 

Teams have been scouting these players for a couple of seasons and actively scouting them for the last year. These players are not wildly fluctuating on a teams draft board based upon what they do in their underwear. Teams are not making their scouting reports public.

 

Independent of that process, draft "experts" are presenting information based upon their draft evaluations and creating their own draft boards. They are not doing this with the level of advanced scouting teams put in and are not privy to the standards teams use to rank their boards. People like McShay & Kiper start presenting big boards for the next season almost immediately after the draft is completed. Teams don't say a word about prospects all fall, yet the "gurus" are constantly tweaking their boards. Information does start coming out around the combine, though many savy teams use the media to spread misinformation. Once the information starts coming from teams, an "expert" will move the players around based upon the information they receive.

 

Realistically, Kiper and McShay don't know any more than the rest of us would if we didn't have real jobs and had all the time we wanted to watch college games and make our own databases. Kiper has been doing this for decades, if he had a respected opinion or an added level of insight some team would have made him an offer he couldn't refuse by this point. ESPN isn't paying more than a NFL team would if they believed there was a competitive edge to be gained.

 

Don't confuse "experts" refining their guesses once they start getting answers provided to them as wild player fluctuations on team draft boards based upon workouts.

Agreed.

 

Once in a while, one of the "experts" is offered a job. Russ Lande used to publish "GM Jr" draft guide, now he is chief scout (maybe GM?) of the Montreal Alouettes of the CFL. Lande might not be a great example because he actually was a scout in the NFL prior to doing his draft guides, but still he was likely offered the Montreal job based on his work as a draft analyst rather than his scouting background from years earlier.

[thebandit27]

Not to be too argumentative as I haven't really watched Poe play much in the NFL, but weren't the Bills an awful run D a few years ago and they had Marcel Dareus and Kyle Williams. My point is that it is *possible* that Poe was doing his job tying up blockers, but his teammates weren't capable of holding up their end.

 

That's not being argumentative; that's bringing up a totally relevant discussion point. My opinion from watching him play, however, is that he's generally ineffective against the run for such a big man.

 

You're correct, though, that much of KC's lack of solid run defense stems from their weakness at ILB. It's not one or the other; it's both.

[OldTimer1960]

Here are two recent examples from Kiper.

 

In January of 2010 he mocked us to be taking Jimmy Clausen @ #9. Now we all know we didn't draft Jimmy Clausen at #9 and he didn't actually go until pick #48.

 

In January of 2011 he mocked Da'Quan Bowers to the Bengals at pick #4. Bowers actually went to the Bucs at pick #51.

 

 

Now what happened here? These are some extreme swings in player value. Did Jimmy and Da'Quan start running down grandmas in walmart parking lots a month before the draft? Did teams discover they were actually dealing drugs? Or did Mel Kiper not have a clue what he was talking about?

In Bower's case, the combine physical showed a significant physical problem (I think it was a knee). Clausen is a pretty good example of the "hype" from draft experts not correlating to what NFL teams think of a player.

 

To be fair to NFL scouts, GMs and even draft "analysts", scouting is very difficult. "Tape doesn't lie" is too simplistic because teams need to take into consideration how other factors affected how a player played on tape including, but not limited to:

1. Level of competittion - How do you compare a player who played mostly SEC competition against a player who played in the MAC or other lower level league?

2. Talent around the player - Does the player have other great players on his team that divide the oppostions attention and allow the player to look better than he is? This can also go the other way - if there are many other great players on the same team, it could limit a player's opportunities to shine.

3. Scheme - Does the scheme that a player plays in highlight his strengths and hide weaknesses that could be exploited at the NFL level? Alternatively, does the scheme not highlight a player and thus make a him not look as good as he could be?

 

Other factors that have to go into player rankings include:

1. Growth potential - Can the player get physically stronger/faster or is he already max-ed out? Can the player improve with better coaching and more experience?

2. Injury factors - Is there a significant injury or condition that (isn't widely known) might make the player more prone to injury in the NFL?

3. Character Issues

3a How bad does a guy want it? How hard will he work at the next level? This is VERY difficult to project

3b Is the guy at risk for missing time/not being productive due to off-field issues (drugs, crimes, etc)?

3c How good of a teammate will the guy be (think Jay Cutler - terrific talent, but some say not a good teammate).

4. How good of a fit will he be for what you need? - Does he play a position of great need? Does his skill-set match what you need/want at the position? For example, some teams want smaller faster LBs and others want bigger guys and will trade off speed/agility to get the size. Some teams want super-sized powerful drive blocking OGs while others are happier with smaller (they still aren't really small) guys with more agility because they need them to pull and also need them to engage LBs at the second level of the defense.

 

With QBs there are even more things to consider:

1. How quickly can he see the field and process what he sees? This might be the most difficult thing to assess when rating QBs and is almost surely the most important - much more important than having a cannon for an arm.

1a. Can he make good risk-benefit decisions almost instantaneously? Do you go for the big play to the guy that is being covered well or do you take the lower risk/lower return play to the safety-valve?

2. Has he demonstrated the ability to throw into tight spots against top competition? Most great QBs in college are also on very good teams - often times they have outstanding Offensive lines that give them all day to choose which of their wide-open receivers to throw to. For sure, they won't have that much time and receivers won't that that open in the NFL

 

I am sure that there are many other things to consider when rating players, but just considering the above, it should be pretty clear that scouting is hard and different teams will have different ratings based on needs, schemes/preferences and organizational risk taking profile.

[Nanker]

Pro days offer an invaluable opportunity to get much closer to an athlete during his workout. It's like going to a new car dealer versus going to an auto show at a convention center. It's part of the buying process. Having a player in for a visit to your facility is like doing a test drive at a dealer.

 

There's lots of subjective learning and calculus of the team's evaluation of the player's value proposition going on the whole time up until the Draft.

[Malazan]

I think there's a fundamental lack of understanding of the process with some fans.

 

 

Teams have been scouting these players for a couple of seasons and actively scouting them for the last year. These players are not wildly fluctuating on a teams draft board based upon what they do in their underwear. Teams are not making their scouting reports public.

 

Independent of that process, draft "experts" are presenting information based upon their draft evaluations and creating their own draft boards. They are not doing this with the level of advanced scouting teams put in and are not privy to the standards teams use to rank their boards. People like McShay & Kiper start presenting big boards for the next season almost immediately after the draft is completed. Teams don't say a word about prospects all fall, yet the "gurus" are constantly tweaking their boards. Information does start coming out around the combine, though many savy teams use the media to spread misinformation. Once the information starts coming from teams, an "expert" will move the players around based upon the information they receive.

 

Realistically, Kiper and McShay don't know any more than the rest of us would if we didn't have real jobs and had all the time we wanted to watch college games and make our own databases. Kiper has been doing this for decades, if he had a respected opinion or an added level of insight some team would have made him an offer he couldn't refuse by this point. ESPN isn't paying more than a NFL team would if they believed there was a competitive edge to be gained.

 

Don't confuse "experts" refining their guesses once they start getting answers provided to them as wild player fluctuations on team draft boards based upon workouts.

 

They do often have sources from teams or scouting agencies that they also incorporate into their stuff. They're still awful and throwing darts at board blindfolded, but you don't often see "Wild swings" from the draftnik boards to what players get drafted. If they have a guy at number 1 then it's rare to see that guy get out of the first round.

[QuoteTheRaven83]

I have no beef with the combine/pro day. I just don't understand why the positional drills are done without full pads.