We Think We Know, but Perhaps We Just Don't Know

[dcjoev]

Former Bills general manager Tom Donohoe once said, "We think we know, but we just don't know", when asked about the draft process and how teams target collegiate players, in hopes of landing future stars.

Those words rang out loud and clear to me Thursday, when my 'Connect the Dots' post crumbled, just one hour after I submitted it to The Stadium Wall. I guess Frank Reich's connection to Bill Polian won't make him a sure-fire bet to be our next coach and Terry Pegula won't be looking into ways to trade for Philip Rivers!

 

Thankfully, my post was discarded after I fielded a few well-deserved insults. But I've brushed myself off and I'm back on board to give my opinion another go.

We can speculate all we want, but it appears the Bills had no interest in extending Doug Marrone's contract, unless he earned it next season and went along with their plan to have another cook in the kitchen (Bill Polian) to oversee him.

 

Now that I've had time to study it all "with a fine-toothed comb", I believe Marrone's departure could be a win-win for both him and the Bills. It also appears to have given GM Doug Whaley more time to save his job.

Marrone took the money and ran. But who wouldn't, if the chance for a more secure head coaching job is, or is about to be, offered? He may very well have an opportunity with the Jets - or another team in search of a new coach - that promises him more control over player personnel decisions. In the meantime, the Bills look like the victim of a coach who quit on them and the vacancy may seem more appealing, despite Marrone's assertion that the front office is a dysfunctional mess.

According to reports this morning, Whaley will lead the coaching search for Buffalo, so it appears he has won Terry Pegula's trust in some respects. But I think Whaley's on a short leash and Pegula spelled that out for him, when he tried to lure Bill Polian back to the Bills.

I'm guessing Pegula had 2 thoughts in mind. One was to keep the status quo for another year, with the single addition of a "Czar" who apparently liked Marrone. But if Marrone walked, he'd have the Czar in place to help clean the house he just bought. In my opinion, Polian's decision not to return is a bigger obstacle for Pegula to overcome because it hurts his chance to lure a seasoned head coach, with a winning track record.

I really think Marrone's decision had no bearing on Pegula's long-term plan and just sped up the inevitable search for a new regime. But Polian's reversal will force the owner to up his ante because coaching candidates (experienced or not) may be concerned about stability in the front office, which Polian would have had a hand in fixing.

Pegula has plenty of options, including a safety net in Jim Schwartz, who has head coaching experience to fall back on. But if I'm Bills President Russ Brandon, I'm shaking in my boots right now, because he'll likely be out of a job when Pegula finds another Polian to fill the Czar role.

My new hunch is a big-name coach, with a good reputation, who is okay with sharing responsibilities with a young, re-energized GM and a Consultant/President, who isn't just a marketing guru masquerading as a football genius.

Edited January 2, 2015 by dcjoev

[YoloinOhio]

Good post. And insults are never "well-deserved" just for stating your opinion/thoughts. Thanks for coming back!

[DC Tom]

And insults are never "well-deserved" just for stating your opinion/thoughts.

 

 

The hell they aren't.

[vorpma]

Former Bills general manager Tom Donohoe once said, "We think we know, but we just don't know", when asked about the draft process and how teams target collegiate players, in hopes of landing future stars.

 

Those words rang out loud and clear to me Thursday, when my 'Connect the Dots' post crumbled one hour after I submitted it to The Stadium Wall. I guess Frank Reich's connection to Bill Polian won't make him a sure-fire bet to be our next coach and Terry Pegula won't be looking into ways to trade for Philip Rivers!

 

But I digress... And after fielding a few well-deserved insults, I'm back on board to give my opinion another go.

 

We can speculate all we want, but it appears the Bills had no interest in extending Doug Marrone unless he earned it next season and went along with their plan to have another cook in the kitchen (Bill Polian) to oversee him.

 

Now that I've had time to study it all "with a fine-toothed comb", I believe Marrone's departure is a win-win for him and the Bills and another chance for GM Doug Whaley.

 

Marrone took the money and ran. But who wouldn't, if the chance for a more secure head coaching job is, or is about to be, offered? He may very well have an opportunity with the Jets - or another team in search mode - that promises him more control over player personnel decisions.

 

In the meantime, the Bills look like the victim of a coach who quit on them and their vacancy appears to be more appealing than it is, if the front office is as dysfunctional as Marrone reportedly said it is.

 

According to reports this morning, Whaley will lead the coaching search for Buffalo, so it appears he has won Terry Pegula's trust in some respects. But I think Whaley's on a short leash and Pegula spelled that out for him, when he tried to lure Bill Polian back to the Bills.

 

I'm guessing Pegula had 2 thoughts in mind. One was to keep the status quo for another year, with the single addition of a "Czar" who apparently liked Marrone. But if Marrone walked, he'd have the Czar in place to help clean the house he just bought.

 

In my opinion, Polian's decision not to return is a bigger obstacle for Pegula to overcome because it hurts his chance to lure a seasoned head coach, with a winning track record.

 

I really think Marrone's decision had no bearing on Pegula's long-term plan and just sped up the inevitable search for a new regime. But Polian's reversal will force the owner to up his ante because coaching candidates (experienced or not) may be concerned about stability in the front office, which Polian would have had a hand in fixing.

 

Pegula has plenty of options, including a safety net in Jim Schwartz, who has head coaching experience to fall back on.

 

But if I'm Bills President Russ Brandon, I'm shaking in my boots right now, because he'll likely be out of a job when Pegula finds another Polian to fill the Czar role.

 

My new hunch is a big-name coach, with a good reputation, who is okay with sharing responsibilities with a young, re-energized GM and a Consultant/President, who isn't just a marketing guru masquerading as a football genius.

Good post.

[bigK14094]

Yes, some good content in the above discussion. I might differ on shades of grey here though. First of all, Brandon will not be dumped, he will land on his feet, and it might be with the Bills. His admited lack of football expertise makes him a realist....he was fine as President letting the football people handle that side. Problem is, they didn't play nice with each other all the time...and one left. Whaley does need a short leash.....and somebody to help him past his worst ideas ...provide a balance on personnel decisions and the draft. The mentor NIX is gone....and another is still needed. That doesn't make Brandon obsolete......the football mentor might come in with the title vice chairman or something like that.....If I am Pegs, I am keeping Brandon, unless somebody like Oakland and begs to interview him for President of the club. (that would be Davis jr)

Now, about the HC.....I think Whaley will interview the young high flyers....and the obligatory minority candidate (I am hoping that there is one in the young high flyers), but I think he will have a tough time passing on the in house guy...Schwartz who came to the Bills hoping for this shot. He delivered big time.....you know, I wondered how Marrone attracted Schwartz to the bills staff so quickly a year ago.....and, at the time, thought the Crossman connection was the answer. (Crossman came from Schwartz staff in Detroit before joining Marrone) But, now I think that Crossman likely only made the introductions....and Marrone recruited Schwartz....and the big sell was this clause in Marrone's contract....that is Marrone told Schwartz he was likely leaving in another year, and Schwartz could be the "inside" candidate for HC! imho

Edited January 2, 2015 by bigK14094

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

I question how much did Marrone really report the front office is dysfunctional? All Polian has publicly stated is he changed his mind as now the job entailed too much work, really didn't say anything more. Now could be he's just taking the high road, but haven't seen anything of real substance reported of what was allegedly stated.

 

It also doesn't make alot of sense if Pollian liked Marrone and once Marrone left, he backed out, but then it's reported that Marrone left because he didn't like the idea of having to report to Pollian. The only thing to explain that one is he really thinks very highly of himself and felt finishing 9-7 merits him to report to know one but the owner. Can he really be that full of himself?? Sounds like it would have been hard for Pegula to find a Czar as he must not like anyone but himself??

 

I really doubt Russ Brandon is doing any shaking whatsoever. First off the Czar to be named later will be in charge of football operations, not the marketing side. Will Russ report to the czar, I seriously doubt it. IMO Pegula and RB have a mutually agreed strategy that at some point when things are stabilized, RB 's services won't be needed and he will leave the Bill's likely with a large parting gift, next stop the NFL office. Or the other route he may take as others have reported, he may become president or something like that of this Buffalo Entertainment thing that apparently Pegula is leading. But I'm highly certain he's not at all worried, if anything I'd be more worried if I was Terry Pegula about Russ leaving per these rumors about him going to Oakland.

Is Nix gone?? The report stated Nix was gone and Pollian was coming, well half of it didn't work out. Has anything more been reported about Nix??

 

Interesting theory on why Jim S came here

 

The mentor NIX is gone....and another is still needed.

 

the big sell was this clause in Marrone's contract....that is Marrone told Schwartz he was likely leaving in another year, and Schwartz could be the "inside" candidate for HC! imho

 

 

 

 

PS I really don't like the look of this new "quote thing" as where does the quote end and the posters comments truly start? Seems kind of hard to figure out?? Case in point!!

Edited January 2, 2015 by Ed_Formerly_of_Roch

[yungmack]

Former Bills general manager Tom Donohoe once said, "We think we know, but we just don't know", when asked about the draft process and how teams target collegiate players, in hopes of landing future stars.

 

Those words rang out loud and clear to me Thursday, when my 'Connect the Dots' post crumbled, just one hour after I submitted it to The Stadium Wall. I guess Frank Reich's connection to Bill Polian won't make him a sure-fire bet to be our next coach and Terry Pegula won't be looking into ways to trade for Philip Rivers!

 

Thankfully, my post was discarded after I fielded a few well-deserved insults. But I've brushed myself off and I'm back on board to give my opinion another go.

 

We can speculate all we want, but it appears the Bills had no interest in extending Doug Marrone's contract, unless he earned it next season and went along with their plan to have another cook in the kitchen (Bill Polian) to oversee him.

 

Now that I've had time to study it all "with a fine-toothed comb", I believe Marrone's departure could be a win-win for both him and the Bills. It also appears to have given GM Doug Whaley more time to save his job.

 

Marrone took the money and ran. But who wouldn't, if the chance for a more secure head coaching job is, or is about to be, offered? He may very well have an opportunity with the Jets - or another team in search of a new coach - that promises him more control over player personnel decisions.In the meantime, the Bills look like the victim of a coach who quit on them and the vacancy may seem more appealing, despite Marrone's assertion that the front office is a dysfunctional mess.

 

According to reports this morning, Whaley will lead the coaching search for Buffalo, so it appears he has won Terry Pegula's trust in some respects. But I think Whaley's on a short leash and Pegula spelled that out for him, when he tried to lure Bill Polian back to the Bills.

 

I'm guessing Pegula had 2 thoughts in mind. One was to keep the status quo for another year, with the single addition of a "Czar" who apparently liked Marrone. But if Marrone walked, he'd have the Czar in place to help clean the house he just bought. In my opinion, Polian's decision not to return is a bigger obstacle for Pegula to overcome because it hurts his chance to lure a seasoned head coach, with a winning track record.

 

I really think Marrone's decision had no bearing on Pegula's long-term plan and just sped up the inevitable search for a new regime. But Polian's reversal will force the owner to up his ante because coaching candidates (experienced or not) may be concerned about stability in the front office, which Polian would have had a hand in fixing.

 

Pegula has plenty of options, including a safety net in Jim Schwartz, who has head coaching experience to fall back on. But if I'm Bills President Russ Brandon, I'm shaking in my boots right now, because he'll likely be out of a job when Pegula finds another Polian to fill the Czar role.

 

My new hunch is a big-name coach, with a good reputation, who is okay with sharing responsibilities with a young, re-energized GM and a Consultant/President, who isn't just a marketing guru masquerading as a football genius.

Lots of "thinks" in there. As my dear old daddy used to say, "Son, when you think, you weaken the team."

[dcjoev]

Please don't get me wrong. Russ Brandon was a loyal soldier throughout his tenure in Ralph Wilson's ranks. As Wilson's right-hand man, he was entrusted to manage One Bills Drive, before and after the owner's passing. And despite the team's decision to pull the plug on the Toronto Series, Brandon succeeded at cashing in on Buffalo's marketing effort north of the border, no matter how things ended up. He's also a graduate of St. John Fisher College in Rochester, so he was the man behind the plan to establish one of the NFL's best and most lucrative training camps.

 

Brandon indeed has earned his right to work in the NFL and will continue to do so. But he was hand-picked by Wilson and is the point guard of a team of staffers that has remained together for nearly three decades (including the past 15 years of postseason futility).

 

Does the old guard still have a sense of entitlement, as was alluded to in this column from last February? And if that's the case, are they mostly to blame for the sudden exits of Coach Marrone and Mike Mularkey a few years ago? We can all play 'judge and jury' to that, but I believe the time has finally come to blow it all up, from the top-down. And as Terry Pegula likely said to Marrone on his way out the door, "It's nothing personal. It's just business."

Edited January 2, 2015 by dcjoev

[dcjoev]

Apparently, someone agrees with me...

 

http://www.buffalorumblings.com/2015/1/1/7478293/its-time-for-the-buffalo-bills-to-revamp-their-football-operation

[kasper13]

The old guard absolutely has a sense of entitlement and why wouldn't they? Overdorf & Brandon are in charge of finding yet another head coach now. Whaley gets to sit in again. Pegula has done nothing but pay for the team and tried to bring in Polian, that failed and he gives the old guard all their power back. I agree, a complete house cleaning from top down was in order and completely necessary but it's just not happening. It will happen in another two years when they do nothing but fail again.

[Bob in STL]

Former Bills general manager Tom Donohoe once said, "We think we know, but we just don't know", when asked about the draft process and how teams target collegiate players, in hopes of landing future stars.

Those words rang out loud and clear to me Thursday, when my 'Connect the Dots' post crumbled, just one hour after I submitted it to The Stadium Wall. I guess Frank Reich's connection to Bill Polian won't make him a sure-fire bet to be our next coach and Terry Pegula won't be looking into ways to trade for Philip Rivers!

 

Thankfully, my post was discarded after I fielded a few well-deserved insults. But I've brushed myself off and I'm back on board to give my opinion another go.

We can speculate all we want, but it appears the Bills had no interest in extending Doug Marrone's contract, unless he earned it next season and went along with their plan to have another cook in the kitchen (Bill Polian) to oversee him.

 

Now that I've had time to study it all "with a fine-toothed comb", I believe Marrone's departure could be a win-win for both him and the Bills. It also appears to have given GM Doug Whaley more time to save his job.

Marrone took the money and ran. But who wouldn't, if the chance for a more secure head coaching job is, or is about to be, offered? He may very well have an opportunity with the Jets - or another team in search of a new coach - that promises him more control over player personnel decisions. In the meantime, the Bills look like the victim of a coach who quit on them and the vacancy may seem more appealing, despite Marrone's assertion that the front office is a dysfunctional mess.

According to reports this morning, Whaley will lead the coaching search for Buffalo, so it appears he has won Terry Pegula's trust in some respects. But I think Whaley's on a short leash and Pegula spelled that out for him, when he tried to lure Bill Polian back to the Bills.

I'm guessing Pegula had 2 thoughts in mind. One was to keep the status quo for another year, with the single addition of a "Czar" who apparently liked Marrone. But if Marrone walked, he'd have the Czar in place to help clean the house he just bought. In my opinion, Polian's decision not to return is a bigger obstacle for Pegula to overcome because it hurts his chance to lure a seasoned head coach, with a winning track record.

I really think Marrone's decision had no bearing on Pegula's long-term plan and just sped up the inevitable search for a new regime. But Polian's reversal will force the owner to up his ante because coaching candidates (experienced or not) may be concerned about stability in the front office, which Polian would have had a hand in fixing.

Pegula has plenty of options, including a safety net in Jim Schwartz, who has head coaching experience to fall back on. But if I'm Bills President Russ Brandon, I'm shaking in my boots right now, because he'll likely be out of a job when Pegula finds another Polian to fill the Czar role.

My new hunch is a big-name coach, with a good reputation, who is okay with sharing responsibilities with a young, re-energized GM and a Consultant/President, who isn't just a marketing guru masquerading as a football genius.

If Whaley is on a "short leash" why would Pegula by asking him to hire the next coach? Your argument makes no sense in this regard.

 

Polian's point was that the GM and coach should be linked together. When Marrone quit Polian assumed he had to be part of a longer rebuild, and not just an advisory role to the current staff.

 

So by Pegula authorizing Whaley to find a coach he is giving him a large vote of support.

[Ronin]

We know that Whaley has blundered a lot of things. And when you have to go dig for random chance things to make him look good, like 7th round picks and arbitrary trades, then that's always a red flag.

 

It's human nature that different people pick up on things at different rates however.

[dcjoev]

If Whaley is on a "short leash" why would Pegula by asking him to hire the next coach? Your argument makes no sense in this regard.

 

Polian's point was that the GM and coach should be linked together. When Marrone quit Polian assumed he had to be part of a longer rebuild, and not just an advisory role to the current staff.

 

So by Pegula authorizing Whaley to find a coach he is giving him a large vote of support.

I can understand your point here and I personally think if anyone should stay, it should be Whaley. But his well-documented friction with Marrone and apparent inability to rectify it, is a red flag for an organization that desperately needs everyone to get along. Perhaps Russ Brandon should have stepped in between them for the good of the team, but he may have thought it work itself out. When all was said and done, it doesn't look like it did because at Marrone's last press conference, he made it known that he reported directly to the new owner and not to the GM. That's why he told Brandon to inform Whaley that he was texting owners Terry and Kim Pegula about Kyle Orton's retirement.

 

This post from the team's message board made mention of that the day it happened:

 

Interesting Tidbit from the Bills Presser

 

I found it interesting that Marrone asked Brandon to tell Whaley he was texting "the owner" (about Orton's decision to retire). He essentially let slip that he has a direct line to Pegula and is in direct communication with him. He is not communicating with Pegula through Brandon or Whaley. Now most owners are in direct communication with the head coach but given the newness of Pegula and the odd dynamic here I think it is noteworthy that there was immediate contact once Orton told him he was retiring.

 

Couple this with the reports and remarks by the Marrone crew that the Bills front office is amateurish and out of touch and you can start to see a pattern. Marrone is a serious football guy who just had a winning season for the first time in 10 years and appears to have perhaps already built a solid relationship with Pegula.

 

Then consider how much Brandon has been trying to distance himself from the football side of things, so he might stay on in an administrative role under Pegula, and it makes sense that the heat for not making the playoffs was clearly on the front office.

 

 

Edited January 2, 2015 by dcjoev

[Hapless Bills Fan]

According to reports this morning, Whaley will lead the coaching search for Buffalo, so it appears he has won Terry Pegula's trust in some respects. But I think Whaley's on a short leash and Pegula spelled that out for him, when he tried to lure Bill Polian back to the Bills.

 

I'm guessing Pegula had 2 thoughts in mind. One was to keep the status quo for another year, with the single addition of a "Czar" who apparently liked Marrone. But if Marrone walked, he'd have the Czar in place to help clean the house he just bought. In my opinion, Polian's decision not to return is a bigger obstacle for Pegula to overcome because it hurts his chance to lure a seasoned head coach, with a winning track record.

 

 

I really don't understand where this notion comes from. Polian is rightly revered in B'lo as the architect of a fateful team - the team that went to 4 straight superbowls. No other team has managed this yet, win or lose.

 

Around the league, though, Polian is seen as the man who let the Colts devolve to "Manning and nothing else" in his last President stint and who has built a "smoke, must be fire" reputation for being high-handed and abrasive, even abusive. At 72, he's been out of football ops for what, 3 years? If I'm a modern head coach or head coach candidate, why would the presence of Polian in some sort of nebulous "Czar" position that clouds the lines of decision making authority, make me more anxious to sign?

Edited January 2, 2015 by Hopeful

[dcjoev]

I really don't understand where this notion comes from. Polian is rightly revered in B'lo as the architect of a fateful team - the team that went to 4 straight superbowls. No other team has managed this yet, win or lose.

 

Around the league, though, Polian is seen as the man who let the Colts devolve to "Manning and nothing else" in his last President stint and who has built a "smoke, must be fire" reputation for being high-handed and abrasive, even abusive. At 72, he's been out of football ops for what, 3 years? If I'm a modern head coach or head coach candidate, why would the presence of Polian in some sort of nebulous "Czar" position that clouds the lines of decision making authority, make me more anxious to sign?

 

It would NOT make a "modern" coach more likely to sign. I think inexperienced candidates, as well as first-time coaches (like Marrone), are leery of organizations that have multiple levels of decision-makers on the football side. But if Pegula "cuts the fat" from Buffalo's administration and allows a coach to have a say in personnel matters, it'll attract veteran ones, who can get along with a GM and Czar, as long as the coach has some autonomy.

 

"They want you to cook the dinner. At least they should let you shop for the groceries."

-- Hall of Fame coach Bill Parcells

Edited January 2, 2015 by dcjoev