birdog1960 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 (edited) the decision to draft ej described here sounds a lot like a bunch of guys shooting the bull: "I always say it's a Buffalo Bills pick," Bills general manager Doug Whaley said. "You guys can assign blame wherever you want, but when we're in draft meetings it is a consensus recommendation for our whole organization of where this guy's valued and where we should pick him in the draft." so do you need an "analytics dept" to do this or can 3 or 4 guys give their opinion and then majority rules? somehow i see the bills doing it this way rather than an IT guru handing out carefully manicured and harvested probabilities of success in different aspects of performance metrics integral for a desired position players likelihood of mediocrity or domination. anyone with direct insight into how i reasllyt happens beyond whaley's comments here? Edited December 30, 2014 by birdog1960 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldTimer1960 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 the decision to draft ej described here sounds a lot like a bunch of guys shooting the bull: "I always say it's a Buffalo Bills pick," Bills general manager Doug Whaley said. "You guys can assign blame wherever you want, but when we're in draft meetings it is a consensus recommendation for our whole organization of where this guy's valued and where we should pick him in the draft." so do you need an "analytics dept" to do this or can 3 or 4 guys give their opinion and then majority rules? somehow i see the bills doing it this way rather than an IT guru handing out carefully manicured and harvested probabilities of success in different aspects of performance metrics integral for a desired position players likelihood of mediocrity or domination. anyone with direct insight into how i reasllyt happens beyond whaley's comments here? So, where would these "iT gurus" get the performance metrics to carefully manicure and where would they get the evaluations of how each prospect measures up against those performance metrics? Don't delude yourself into thinking that purely crunching college statistics will produce even a reasonable evaluation of draft prospects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoloinOhio Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 (edited) Each org has it's own system and variances but my understanding from one that is not the Bills is that each pick - not just the 1st - is truly a consensus pick. The GM isn't the only one who decides. They may have final say if there is true disagreement or it could be the President or owner. In this case Nix was the GM but Whaley probably set up that draft board. Each pick Is really collaborative. I found it interesting he used the word "blame" Edited December 30, 2014 by YoloinOhio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BringBackFergy Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Each org has it's own system and variances but my understanding from one that is not the Bills is that each pick - not just the 1st - is truly a consensus pick. The GM isn't the only one who decides. They may have final say if there is true disagreement or it could be the President or owner. In this case Nix was the GM but Whaley probably set up that draft board. Each pick Is really collaborative. I found it interesting he used the word "blame" I think in the presser Whaley corrected the reporter who said "do you take blame for the pick" and Whaley said "blame? I never said blame...responsibility" or something like that IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BackInDaDay Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 I found it interesting he used the word "blame" yep, guess what the 'consensus' is now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fadingpain Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Each org has it's own system and variances but my understanding from one that is not the Bills is that each pick - not just the 1st - is truly a consensus pick. The GM isn't the only one who decides. They may have final say if there is true disagreement or it could be the President or owner. In this case Nix was the GM but Whaley probably set up that draft board. Each pick Is really collaborative. I found it interesting he used the word "blame" There is all kinds of stuff loaded into that word "blame" and he is the one who used it, not the questioner. It speaks VOLUMES about what Whaley is thinking, and he is not smart enough (general intelligence here, not football IQ) to realize what he did or that it was a huge giveaway. Kind of funny actually. Did anyone watch the HBO show "HARD KNOCKS" focusing on the Bengals' training camp? Are you kidding? This big time stuff and these organizations have an entire brain trust of 10 to 15 guys sitting around conference tables analyzing all kinds of things and engaging in group discussion about EVERYTHING, including whether or not to cut some marginal player who was a walk-on. 2 heads are better than one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoloinOhio Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 I think in the presser Whaley corrected the reporter who said "do you take blame for the pick" and Whaley said "blame? I never said blame...responsibility" or something like that IIRC. ok. That would make more sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
birdog1960 Posted December 30, 2014 Author Share Posted December 30, 2014 So, where would these "iT gurus" get the performance metrics to carefully manicure and where would they get the evaluations of how each prospect measures up against those performance metrics? Don't delude yourself into thinking that purely crunching college statistics will produce even a reasonable evaluation of draft prospects. they would likely get it in similar places that depedesto http://grantland.com/features/the-economics-moneyball/ got it for the A's. do we have a depedesto or a roomful of dudes with average to below average iq's evaluating talent on instinct or some combination of the two? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldTimer1960 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 (edited) they would likely get it in similar places that depedesto http://grantland.com/features/the-economics-moneyball/ got it for the A's. do we have a depedesto or a roomful of dudes with average to below average iq's evaluating talent on instinct or some combination of the two? I think that there are a little more objective and easily obtainable statistics available for baseball - a game that is also much more individual match ups than football is. I am not saying that analytics can't help in some way, but I do think that it can't stand alone without talent evaluation. The condescending characterization you've made of "a roomful of dudes with average to to below average IQs evaluating talent on instinct" isn't called for, either. Without the talent evaluators, what is the analytics guy(s) going to base his analysis on? Edited December 30, 2014 by OldTimer1960 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BringBackFergy Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 ok. That would make more sense. I just listened to it again. There was one exchange where he questioned why the reporter said blame and another where Whaley said the reporters will "blame". Whatever. Weird exchange. Fact is, we have a 1st round pick year three and have no idea if he is serviceable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miyagi-Do Karate Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 I have a feeling that all the statistical metrics supported the pick. Manuel was a 4-year player, over 68 percent completion rate, high QB rating, high ypa, good conference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K-9 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Each org has it's own system and variances but my understanding from one that is not the Bills is that each pick - not just the 1st - is truly a consensus pick. The GM isn't the only one who decides. They may have final say if there is true disagreement or it could be the President or owner. In this case Nix was the GM but Whaley probably set up that draft board. Each pick Is really collaborative. I found it interesting he used the word "blame" I took that as nothing more than an indictment of the press and their obsession to assign "blame", which is an asinine way of putting it. The term wasn't Whaley's; it was the media's. GO BILLS!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BringBackFergy Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 I took that as nothing more than an indictment of the press and their obsession to assign "blame", which is an asinine way of putting it. The term wasn't Whaley's; it was the media's. GO BILLS!!! Yes, that's what I was trying to say. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kasper13 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 They probably go buy a bunch of draft preview magazines the week before the draft and see if anyone jumps off the page. Bunch of clowns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 (edited) the decision to draft ej described here sounds a lot like a bunch of guys shooting the bull: "I always say it's a Buffalo Bills pick," Bills general manager Doug Whaley said. "You guys can assign blame wherever you want, but when we're in draft meetings it is a consensus recommendation for our whole organization of where this guy's valued and where we should pick him in the draft." so do you need an "analytics dept" to do this or can 3 or 4 guys give their opinion and then majority rules? somehow i see the bills doing it this way rather than an IT guru handing out carefully manicured and harvested probabilities of success in different aspects of performance metrics integral for a desired position players likelihood of mediocrity or domination. anyone with direct insight into how i reasllyt happens beyond whaley's comments here? I suspect "I don't know what the analytics department does" would've been a faster and less accusatory way to find out Edited December 30, 2014 by NoSaint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wiz Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 So, where would these "iT gurus" get the performance metrics to carefully manicure and where would they get the evaluations of how each prospect measures up against those performance metrics? Don't delude yourself into thinking that purely crunching college statistics will produce even a reasonable evaluation of draft prospects. I'll bet they had a conference call with the ESPN Sports Science guy whose calculations said that EJ had great accuracy and was a budding superstar. I tend to place the blame on Nix who said he was going to find a "franchise qb" before he left. It's like a guy going out for the night and saying he's gonna find his dream girl. It's around 2 am and he turns to the fat girl at the end of the bar and convinces himself that she looks awfully pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#34fan Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Blindfold and a dartboard... That's about the sze of it... Our FRONT OFFICE SUCKS AT ALL THINGS ANALYTICAL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dean Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 I have a feeling that all the statistical metrics supported the pick. Manuel was a 4-year player, over 68 percent completion rate, high QB rating, high ypa, good conference. Plus a national championship. I can't believe any metrics would disagree. This guy was a solid analytics pick by most any measure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLbills Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 (edited) I found it interesting he used the word "blame" I think Whaley was justified using "blame". Whaley, along with the rest of the brass at OBD, have been scrutinized and blamed all season long for the QB fiasco. Outsiders, as well as media insiders, have pinned the EJ selection on everyone at the top, or "assigned the blame". Edited December 30, 2014 by FLbills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justnzane Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Wow, this is revisionist history when Whaley was not the guy who drafted EJ and the analytics dept was created in October of last year. SMH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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