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Would you punt 4th & 2 down 14 points?


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This is no brainer that Marrone again screwed up, you are down 14 points with about 6 mins left and need 2 yards.This guy is more worried about style points and showing close games against good teams then trying to win the game.He was a conservative coach in college and nothing as changed much since.

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The 4th down bot didn't kill Marrone for that one, but mostly because our chances of winning were very low either way:

 

http://nyt4thdownbot.com/play.html?gameid=12072014_BUF@DEN&playid=201412070073504

 

Personally, I think it was an indefensible move. The reasonable best-case scenario* is a quick 3-and-out followed by a punt, and that happened. Result: we got the ball back right where we started, but with about 2 minutes fewer on the clock. And guess what? We still needed to convert a 4th and 16 to advance the ball the next time! If we can pick up a 4th and 16, why can't we pick up a 4th and 2 from about the same spot?

 

*Obviously a muffed punt recovered by the Bills, or roughing the kicker penalty, or CJ Anderson fumble would've been better scenarios, but those are very unlikely and not something a coach can really plan on.

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The 4th down bot didn't kill Marrone for that one, but mostly because our chances of winning were very low either way:

 

http://nyt4thdownbot.com/play.html?gameid=12072014_BUF@DEN&playid=201412070073504

 

Personally, I think it was an indefensible move. The reasonable best-case scenario* is a quick 3-and-out followed by a punt, and that happened. Result: we got the ball back right where we started, but with about 2 minutes fewer on the clock. And guess what? We still needed to convert a 4th and 16 to advance the ball the next time! If we can pick up a 4th and 16, why can't we pick up a 4th and 2 from about the same spot?

 

*Obviously a muffed punt recovered by the Bills, or roughing the kicker penalty, or CJ Anderson fumble would've been better scenarios, but those are very unlikely and not something a coach can really plan on.

 

thats about how i felt.

 

going against manning, im guessing the 3 and out is tough to bank on - but we got it.

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I thought it was the right call in all honesty. If we didn't get it they kicked a field goal and the game was done. I thought that punt it away, play defense take your time outs and get the ball back was the right call. The problem was that we then took too long to get down the field. We got the ball back with 4:20 to play and took 3:25 to score. If you score quicker you have some more freedom about the onside kick.... and regardless of whether you onside kick it you are makign the Bronocs run a couple of plays rather than just kneel and you can send your guys in hard after a strip or whatever it might be.

 

I do, however, accept that I more conservative than most on 4th down tries. I hated the call at 0-0 in game where you know field position is going to be key.

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You absolutely do not punt there on the road down two scores with under 6 mins or whatever it was left especially vs Manning when the distance to make isnt long

 

Chargers did same thing last night and didnt get ball back until under 2 mins left

 

 

what do you have better odds of getting? the first on 4th and 2 or the onsides kick?

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This is no brainer that Marrone again screwed up, you are down 14 points with about 6 mins left and need 2 yards.This guy is more worried about style points and showing close games against good teams then trying to win the game.He was a conservative coach in college and nothing as changed much since.

 

Our forward thinking, analytical head coach in action. :rolleyes:

 

Our Dick Jauron clone got skittish after the failed 4th down conversion earlier in the game, but based on Marrones super conservative management in-game I didn't expect any other decision from him.

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I thought it was the right call in all honesty. If we didn't get it they kicked a field goal and the game was done. I thought that punt it away, play defense take your time outs and get the ball back was the right call. The problem was that we then took too long to get down the field. We got the ball back with 4:20 to play and took 3:25 to score. If you score quicker you have some more freedom about the onside kick.... and regardless of whether you onside kick it you are makign the Bronocs run a couple of plays rather than just kneel and you can send your guys in hard after a strip or whatever it might be.

 

I do, however, accept that I more conservative than most on 4th down tries. I hated the call at 0-0 in game where you know field position is going to be key.

 

They took too long to get down the field, in part, because the defense had to use all their timeouts when they punted the ball to Denver. Imagine how much better off they would have been if they'd had two extra minutes and two timeouts to score that TD and get the ball back.

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I thought it was the right call in all honesty. If we didn't get it they kicked a field goal and the game was done. I thought that punt it away, play defense take your time outs and get the ball back was the right call. The problem was that we then took too long to get down the field. We got the ball back with 4:20 to play and took 3:25 to score. If you score quicker you have some more freedom about the onside kick.... and regardless of whether you onside kick it you are makign the Bronocs run a couple of plays rather than just kneel and you can send your guys in hard after a strip or whatever it might be.

 

I do, however, accept that I more conservative than most on 4th down tries. I hated the call at 0-0 in game where you know field position is going to be key.

 

part of the problem is that kicking there risks not just manning getting a first or two to finish the game, but best case burns your timeouts.

 

if we do kick it, it becomes a situation where you have to get an onside kick pretty much no matter what.

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Orton sliding was preceded by Jackson running out of bounds without contact rather than squaring up and getting the first down on 2nd down.

 

As for Marrone - I don't understand why so man NFL coaches have trouble with these decisions.

 

its called coaching not to lose which unfortunately is how many NFL head coaches coach

 

aka the human ken doll syndrome

Edited by Max997
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In Marones eyes, he made the perfect call...got the ball back, scored a TD...stupid players just could not execute a 1 in 10 play.

 

After all, he did not want to take the game away from the players...they lost the game, not him

Edited by plenzmd1
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part of the problem is that kicking there risks not just manning getting a first or two to finish the game, but best case burns your timeouts.

 

if we do kick it, it becomes a situation where you have to get an onside kick pretty much no matter what.

 

If we don't get the 4th and 2 the game is finished. If you are asking me who I trust more - our offense to make a 4th and 2 or our defense to force a 3 and out even against Peyton Manning in a situation where Denver have basically committed to the run I'm taking our defense 100 times out of 100. That is because our defense is very good, bordering on elite and our offense is very bad bordering on pathetic. I'd take my chances with my defense every single time.

 

I get where you guys are coming from I really do, but I feel as though you are looking at it in a vacuum. Look at it with what you know about this team. I'd have made the same call Marrone did. Once we got it back and it was 4th and 16 and you have no time outs then there is no strategy at play you are doing the only possible thing.

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The 4th down bot didn't kill Marrone for that one, but mostly because our chances of winning were very low either way:

 

http://nyt4thdownbot.com/play.html?gameid=12072014_BUF@DEN&playid=201412070073504

 

Personally, I think it was an indefensible move. The reasonable best-case scenario* is a quick 3-and-out followed by a punt, and that happened. Result: we got the ball back right where we started, but with about 2 minutes fewer on the clock. And guess what? We still needed to convert a 4th and 16 to advance the ball the next time! If we can pick up a 4th and 16, why can't we pick up a 4th and 2 from about the same spot?

 

*Obviously a muffed punt recovered by the Bills, or roughing the kicker penalty, or CJ Anderson fumble would've been better scenarios, but those are very unlikely and not something a coach can really plan on.

My problem with our coaches is all too often, I feel like I know more about the game than they do. And, in no universe or alternate reality should that be the case.

 

At that moment in the game, the coach required boldness. Either you go for it on 4th and 2 and risk losing the game if you don't make it. OR if you punt, stop them, get the ball back... you have to throw deep and score fast. Either way... you have to go against your conservative nature. A long slow drive, like they had may look good on the stat sheet, but it looses the game.... just like not converting the 4th and 2 would have done.

 

Bottom line: Marrone took the safe and conservative option when everyone watching knows we needed to take the shot there,

 

 

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If there's that little confidence in the offense at that point and you need two scores then the game is basically over anyway and it doesn't really matter what happens if they don't convert the 4th and 2.

 

In the situation that played out it didn't matter either.

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OR if you punt, stop them, get the ball back... you have to throw deep and score fast. Either way... you have to go against your conservative nature. A long slow drive, like they had may look good on the stat sheet, but it looses the game.... just like not converting the 4th and 2 would have done.

 

That was my preferred option and if you score in like a minute and a half you make Denver run proper plays you send your D out trying to do anything to force a turnover and at worst if you can force another 3 and out you get 35 seconds (about what Flacco got to tie the Broncos a couple of years back in the play-offs) to throw a couple of hail Mary's.

 

If I'm trying to win a game with this Bills team I'm sending my D out to do it for me as often as possible. Play to your strengths.

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