Orton's accuracy

[Ontario51]

You know, KC is a pretty good team with experienced coaching. For example they beat NE like a drum.

If Bryce Brown doesn't fumble on he 3 yard line or if Chandler recovers, the Bills probably win. Its that close and of course Orton is again our savior. He's still the best alternative.

[PromoTheRobot]

This is what I hate...stop reading stat lines and start watching games. Four of those TDs were gift wrapped by our D and Sammy against the Jets. What about his lost fumbles, bad sacks, missed wide open guys in the end zone and constant 3 and outs?

 

The offense is near the bottom of the league in every efficiency category...and Orton has started the most games.

 

Orton is the 28th ranked QB using the much more informative ESPN QBR which is all about evaluating how efficient and effective a QB is.

 

We are 2 plays away from being 1-4 under Orton. Detroit beat us, just no one told their kicker. And it took a late defensive stop and an incredible play by Sammy to steal a win with 1 second left against a 1 win Vikes team that had a rookie QB making his first road start in Buffalo.

 

In the Jets game, he had NINE 3 and outs. NINE.

 

He and this offense are amongst the worst in the league on third down. Our points per game is not very good outside the Jets abnormally where we got 6 defensive turnovers.

 

So you can take those cherry picked stats if you like, I prefer to take wins...and his on field week to week performance is not going to get us any wins against good teams which we have several of remaining on our schedule. I don't want the guy who can barely beat a bad team and lose to a good team. I want the guy who can go out with CONSISTENCY and play well to beat good teams.

 

Cherry picked what stats??? Those are his stats. Period. Tell me what horrible stat I left out? Games almost lost? Passes almost thrown for picks?

 

I swear some people here get on a jag and lose their grip on reality. They quote stats until the stats don't fit their crusade. Then the stats are not to be believed. Remember when when everyone was tossing around the old Parcells cannard "You are what your record says you are?" Well that's out the window too. Orton sucks and nothing you can show them, not stats nor wins, will convince them otherwise.

Edited November 13, 2014 by PromoTheRobot

[Alphadawg7]

Cherry picked what stats??? Those are his stats. Period. Tell me what horrible stat I left out? Games almost lost? Passes almost thrown for picks?

 

I swear some people here get on a jag and lose their grip on reality. They quote stats until the stats don't fit their crusade. Then the stats are not to be believed. Remember when when everyone was tossing around the old Parcells cannard "You are what your record says you are?" Well that's out the window too. Orton sucks and nothing you can show them, not stats nor wins, will convince them otherwise.

 

They are cherry picked because you want to focus on a stat TOTAL about a discussion of his week to week performance. I don't care what his total is...I care about how he does EACH WEEK. Sometimes the total reflects that, and other times it misrepresents it.

 

40% of his TD's came in ONE game. So how is that a fair argument for his performance the other 4 games? His stats are his stats...and they will look good on his football card. But what about the 4 games where he has 6 TDs and 5 Turnovers?

 

You see, all anyone can say is 10 TDs, 3 INTs. Great...you can have that. What I want is for him not to suck for the bulk of a game the other games where he wasn't gift wrapped 4 TDs by Sammy and our Defense.

 

Does you stat total show that we are dead last in red zone efficiency and worse than last year? Does your stat total show his other turnovers? Does your stat total show his bad sacks? Does you stat total show our horrible 3rd down conversion? Does your stat total show we are were offensively in almost every offensive category compared to last year despite having more talent on the offense? Does your stat total show we are obtaining LESS first downs this year than last year?

 

I want offensive CONSISTENCY...not a game or two where stats get inflated while he and the offense are stagnant most other weeks and most drives. How many times the rest of the year are we going to face a team that gives us the ball 6 times and is totally inept on offense like the Jets game? I bet zero. So when thats not the case, how has the offense performed...marginal at best, and the stats suggest piss poor as we are ranked at the bottom of the league in every relevant offensive category.

Edited November 13, 2014 by Alphadawg7

[hondo in seattle]

The stats and eyeball test tell me the same thing: Orton is pretty good, but isn't great.

 

And given the arc of his career, his play is about what I expected.

 

I have trouble understanding the fans who think he's just awful. Just look around the NFL and I think it's easy to find worse QBs. Orton's certainly not the biggest problem with our offensive production.

 

In any case, he wears Bills colors so I'm a fan.

[Alphadawg7]

The stats and eyeball test tell me the same thing: Orton is pretty good, but isn't great.

 

And given the arc of his career, his play is about what I expected.

 

I have trouble understanding the fans who think he's just awful. Just look around the NFL and I think it's easy to find worse QBs. Orton's certainly not the biggest problem with our offensive production.

 

In any case, he wears Bills colors so I'm a fan.

 

I agree it could be worse...not about that. Its about being honest about his play. So many want to over inflate him just like Fitz. No surprise, many over inflating Ortons effectiveness are the same that did for Fitz and Trent. If anyone criticizes him they immediately make it about EJ and its annoying. I don't care who plays, but I want better play from the offense, and it starts with Orton who has not been consistent enough if we want to beat the tough teams on our schedule coming up.

 

He should be the starter, but that doesn't mean he is playing great. I want to make the playoffs, but this offense as a whole won't get us there. In fact, we are statistically worse in most key offensive categories from last year to this year. For all the hype about how much better we are on the offense, statistically its not true.

 

I dont blame that all on Orton, in fact, I still think the largest problem is Hackett. I even started a thread about how the offense has gotten worse in so many key areas versus last year despite having more offensive talent. And I hold the coaching staff most responsible for that. Here is a link:

 

http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/173083-2013-vs-2014-offensevery-interesting/

[FireChan]

They are cherry picked because you want to focus on a stat TOTAL about a discussion of his week to week performance. I don't care what his total is...I care about how he does EACH WEEK. Sometimes the total reflects that, and other times it misrepresents it.

 

40% of his TD's came in ONE game. So how is that a fair argument for his performance the other 4 games? His stats are his stats...and they will look good on his football card. But what about the 4 games where he has 6 TDs and 5 Turnovers?

 

You see, all anyone can say is 10 TDs, 3 INTs. Great...you can have that. What I want is for him not to suck for the bulk of a game the other games where he wasn't gift wrapped 4 TDs by Sammy and our Defense.

 

Does you stat total show that we are dead last in red zone efficiency and worse than last year? Does your stat total show his other turnovers? Does your stat total show his bad sacks? Does you stat total show our horrible 3rd down conversion? Does your stat total show we are were offensively in almost every offensive category compared to last year despite having more talent on the offense? Does your stat total show we are obtaining LESS first downs this year than last year?

 

I want offensive CONSISTENCY...not a game or two where stats get inflated while he and the offense are stagnant most other weeks and most drives. How many times the rest of the year are we going to face a team that gives us the ball 6 times and is totally inept on offense like the Jets game? I bet zero. So when thats not the case, how has the offense performed...marginal at best, and the stats suggest piss poor as we are ranked at the bottom of the league in every relevant offensive category.

 

If you're gonna pout because our offense doesn't put up 40+ without turnovers, you're gonna turn blue.

[Alphadawg7]

If you're gonna pout because our offense doesn't put up 40+ without turnovers, you're gonna turn blue.

 

Lol, I don't care about 40+, I care about winning. And putting up an average of 17 in the other 4 games is concerning. If thats not concerning for you, then good for you...but averaging 17 points a game in 4 of his 5 starts concerns me with teams like NE, Den and GB on our schedule still. In fact, 17 points per game would put us at 30th in the NFL.

 

But I guess our offense is doing great and there is no reason for concern.

[FireChan]

Lol, I don't care about 40+, I care about winning. And putting up an average of 17 in the other 4 games is concerning. If thats not concerning for you, then good for you...but averaging 17 points a game in 4 of his 5 starts concerns me with teams like NE, Den and GB on our schedule still. In fact, 17 points per game would put us at 30th in the NFL.

 

But I guess our offense is doing great and there is no reason for concern.

 

Bingo.

[3rdand12]

Lol, I don't care about 40+, I care about winning. And putting up an average of 17 in the other 4 games is concerning. If thats not concerning for you, then good for you...but averaging 17 points a game in 4 of his 5 starts concerns me with teams like NE, Den and GB on our schedule still. In fact, 17 points per game would put us at 30th in the NFL.

 

But I guess our offense is doing great and there is no reason for concern.

The only thing i might suggest is that Orton Still has been with the Bills a short Time.

Hackett , like him or not , and Kyle , like him or not , have had little time to develop a synergy. This might also apply to Orton and his WRs.

But that is being a bit hopeful.

kyle orton had a bad day against the Chiefs. And he could not win the the game, when he maybe shoulda on one of those end zone tosses. But he did Not lose the game

[dave mcbride]

 

 

I dont disagree that finding a QB is hard and will be hard next year, if there is even one available the FO likes when we finally make a pick. I agree with you on that. I am just saying that I don't think Orton is the guy to get us back into the playoffs or make a SB run. I do feel we have the defense and enough offensive weapons to be in those discussions, but OL, QB, and OC are our achilles heal.

 

We are large underdogs against Green Bay, Denver, and NE. Now we play NE last game of the year, there is hope they sit a bunch of players if they have their seed locked up. But NE isn't the same team they were when we played them last, and we lost that one too. If we get them at full strength, it will be a tough game to win. Cleveland is also playing well and when we play them they will have 2 big offensive weapons back, Gordon and Cameron.

 

Thats 4 tough games...if we go 2-2 that will be a big accomplishment. I don't see anyway we beat Denver or Green Bay, I just don't. Can we beat Cleveland, I think we can, but I also don't think we will if our offense plays as inconsistent as it has been. I don't think we will beat NE unless they have their seed locked up, but they will probably be battling Denver to the very end for the top seed in the AFC. So I think 1-3 is more likely against those 4 teams and that means if we win out on the rest we will be 9-7 which likely does not get us in the playoffs in the AFC this year. We still have to play the Jets and Dolphins too, who usually play us tough. Jets looked like a different team this last week with Vick leading the show, so I don't expect a blow out win again. We get Miami on a short week too, so I expect this to be a tough game.

 

For me, our playoff chances are on life support after we blew the KC game, again like we did last KC game. Our schedule isn't very friendly rest of the way, only easy game for me is Oakland. I do think we beat the Jets and Dolphins, but I also don't think its a slam dunk. Every game outside the Denver, GB, and NE game is must win for us to have a legit shot at playoffs as I don't think we can win those 3 games as I don't think we have the offensive power to keep up.

 

Good post, generally speaking, but the ESPN total qbr stat is BS -- akin to fangraphs' UZR defensive ratings (garbage in, garbage out). There is no more predictive stat in major team sports history re: wins/losses than the old qbr rating. The evidence is pretty clear on that over time. Google the coldhardfootballfacts take on the espn system - it's eye opening.

 

 

 

Lol, I don't care about 40+, I care about winning. And putting up an average of 17 in the other 4 games is concerning. If thats not concerning for you, then good for you...but averaging 17 points a game in 4 of his 5 starts concerns me with teams like NE, Den and GB on our schedule still. In fact, 17 points per game would put us at 30th in the NFL.

 

But I guess our offense is doing great and there is no reason for concern.

First law of stats - don't exclude the high or low performances when making a statistical argument. Especially when the sample size is small.

 

 

 

I suspected that Hackett/Marrone didn't like our matchup against KC's short yardage run defense and they game-planned for that. Then yesterday on WGR in the morning one of the radio guys said he had actually heard that from the Bills. I'm not surprised. I could criticize Hackett more if his schemes didn't allow for receivers getting open, but they were consistently, as those wide open looks showed in that particular series.

 

It's easy to say anything in retrospect about why we should have run the ball. But if Orton makes a play down there, nobody is questioning that afterwards.

 

GO BILLS!!!

Yep.

 

Here is the problem with this board...the people who hate EJ want to believe Orton is the second coming of Kelly.

I can pretty much assure you that no one on this board either believes or claims this. This is a straw-man argument.

Edited November 13, 2014 by dave mcbride

[JC2002]

But I am also not going to sugar coat his week to week performance because I do not believe that will get us many wins against good teams, if any.

 

Im not telling you to sugarcoat anything just suggesting that you stop making up BS arguments and throwing out all these ridiculous numbers as if no one else watches the games but you .

 

You are not realist when you pull crap out of thin air you are an alarmist . You are picking and choping what to use dismissing numbers left and right as you see fit that is not realism .

 

Can Orton play better ? Yes he can but what you're doing is funny and sad at the same time because you are mixing in straw man arguments with your own made up criteria and no one in the world is buying that stuff.

[snamsnoops]

LOL ! Everyone was talking about how he was rated in the top 6 (or thereabouts) last week. All good. He has a less than stellar performance yesterday and now he's flat-footed, has no pocket awareness, puts the ball in bad spots etc. C'mon guys.

This is kinda what i was tinking.

[PromoTheRobot]

They are cherry picked because you want to focus on a stat TOTAL about a discussion of his week to week performance. I don't care what his total is...I care about how he does EACH WEEK. Sometimes the total reflects that, and other times it misrepresents it.

 

40% of his TD's came in ONE game. So how is that a fair argument for his performance the other 4 games? His stats are his stats...and they will look good on his football card. But what about the 4 games where he has 6 TDs and 5 Turnovers?

 

You see, all anyone can say is 10 TDs, 3 INTs. Great...you can have that. What I want is for him not to suck for the bulk of a game the other games where he wasn't gift wrapped 4 TDs by Sammy and our Defense.

 

Does you stat total show that we are dead last in red zone efficiency and worse than last year? Does your stat total show his other turnovers? Does your stat total show his bad sacks? Does you stat total show our horrible 3rd down conversion? Does your stat total show we are were offensively in almost every offensive category compared to last year despite having more talent on the offense? Does your stat total show we are obtaining LESS first downs this year than last year?

 

I want offensive CONSISTENCY...not a game or two where stats get inflated while he and the offense are stagnant most other weeks and most drives. How many times the rest of the year are we going to face a team that gives us the ball 6 times and is totally inept on offense like the Jets game? I bet zero. So when thats not the case, how has the offense performed...marginal at best, and the stats suggest piss poor as we are ranked at the bottom of the league in every relevant offensive category.

 

You know what? You are setting up an impossible standard. You want a QB who never does anything wrong. Never loses a game. Never throws a pick. Never goes to the bathroom. There is no QB in the NFL that perfect. Even Brady and Manning lay turds.

[Alphadawg7]

The only thing i might suggest is that Orton Still has been with the Bills a short Time.

Hackett , like him or not , and Kyle , like him or not , have had little time to develop a synergy. This might also apply to Orton and his WRs.

But that is being a bit hopeful.

kyle orton had a bad day against the Chiefs. And he could not win the the game, when he maybe shoulda on one of those end zone tosses. But he did Not lose the game

 

Agreed and I keep hoping...and I will continue to hope that he gets more efficient as the season goes on. Problem is time is up...we are on the outside looking in with regards to the playoffs and have teams like Den, GB, NE, and even Cle (who will have both Gordon and Cameron back when we play). Not to mention tough divisional games...only team that should be little trouble is Oakland. So, there they need to gel now or thats it.

 

Im not telling you to sugarcoat anything just suggesting that you stop making up BS arguments and throwing out all these ridiculous numbers as if no one else watches the games but you .

 

You are not realist when you pull crap out of thin air you are an alarmist . You are picking and choping what to use dismissing numbers left and right as you see fit that is not realism .

 

Can Orton play better ? Yes he can but what you're doing is funny and sad at the same time because you are mixing in straw man arguments with your own made up criteria and no one in the world is buying that stuff.

 

Alarmist? I have said this about Orton all along and about the offense in general. This isn't about one game...the offense hasn't been very good since week 2 with the one Jets exception, and even then it was alarmingly inefficient.

 

And what made up criteria? People only want to talk about his total stat line rather than look at how good or bad he is each week.

 

Facts are, the offense has averaged 17 points in the 4 games outside the Jets game...I am happy we dismantled the Jets, but given we had 6 turnovers forced by our D, do you think that statistical output is anomaly or more of what to expect? Considering in the other 80% of his starts he has led this team to a 17 point per game average, which would rank 30th in the NFL, I am concerned about the offense still. He has 6 TDs and 5 turnovers in the 4 other games.

 

Thats not making anything up, thats talking about the facts of each game he has played. And his 4 other games don't impress me. We barely beat Minny and you think that same effort is going to beat NE, GB, Den, and Cle? I don't. He and the offense need to be better...period.

[BillsBackersChicago]

IMO we saw two things undo Orton in the second half.

 

First, from my vantage at the front of the upper deck near midfield the coverage schemes were excellent and they were rarely in bad coverage matchup situations all day. They were in Hackett's back pocket and Orton had a hard time finding easy looks. They encouraged the Bills to run the ball and the Bills rewarded them by not putting points on the board.

 

Second....and most importantly, I think that Orton's lack of physical strength showed. 17 pitches......he's good for. 49 is another matter. He is the physically weakest, most flat-footed QB in the league and there isn't a close second. There isn't much he can do about it now, he was basically retired until 2 months ago but throwing the football 45-50 times is a 100+ pitch outing for a baseball pitcher and the first thing that goes is the location. I think he was about 10 pitches past his limit. His offseason objective should be about 20# of muscle in the legs and core.

 

Twice this season he has thrown 43 times in a game. First time qb rating was 88, next time 95, completion percentage? 70 and 72, yardage? 283 and 308 yards. Both wins. Really think 5 more passes make a difference?

 

Stop just flapping ur gums and look up your assertions before you start spewing nonsense.

 

Yes he was inaccurate this game, as evidenced by the loss and his stats. He put up a relative stinker. But his qbr was still over 80 and completion percentage still over 60.

 

Oh and by the way, when he did only throw 17 passes, his completion percentage was below 60 for the first time this season so there goes ur theory that fewer throws mean more accuracy

 

You really have no clue what ur talking about.so just stop.

 

 

 

I agree with some of this. I thought Orton's arm looked tired and I have been struck all season about his flat footedneds-- would have thought a guy like him would mask lack of a big arm with better lower body mechanics.

 

I admit I haven't watched him all his career, but my cousin went to purdue so he has. He has always maintained that the guy has a very strong arm. What makes you say otherwise? He has not had trouble getting the ball downfield this year.

[Dragonborn10]

Orton is crap. If Watkins doesn't make a miracle catch against Detroit he may have lost his job after the Patriots game. He is what we knew he was - a capable backup. One more loss and there is no reason not to go back to EJ.

[BillsBackersChicago]

 

 

They are cherry picked because you want to focus on a stat TOTAL about a discussion of his week to week performance. I don't care what his total is...I care about how he does EACH WEEK. Sometimes the total reflects that, and other times it misrepresents it.

 

40% of his TD's came in ONE game. So how is that a fair argument for his performance the other 4 games? His stats are his stats...and they will look good on his football card. But what about the 4 games where he has 6 TDs and 5 Turnovers?

 

You see, all anyone can say is 10 TDs, 3 INTs. Great...you can have that. What I want is for him not to suck for the bulk of a game the other games where he wasn't gift wrapped 4 TDs by Sammy and our Defense.

 

Does you stat total show that we are dead last in red zone efficiency and worse than last year? Does your stat total show his other turnovers? Does your stat total show his bad sacks? Does you stat total show our horrible 3rd down conversion? Does your stat total show we are were offensively in almost every offensive category compared to last year despite having more talent on the offense? Does your stat total show we are obtaining LESS first downs this year than last year?

 

I want offensive CONSISTENCY...not a game or two where stats get inflated while he and the offense are stagnant most other weeks and most drives. How many times the rest of the year are we going to face a team that gives us the ball 6 times and is totally inept on offense like the Jets game? I bet zero. So when thats not the case, how has the offense performed...marginal at best, and the stats suggest piss poor as we are ranked at the bottom of the league in every relevant offensive category.

 

ur cherry picking with the best of them. Ur picking the worst of his stats. Let's kick out his worst game (last week) and best game (jets) and look at the rest of the games he's played. Qbr 88, 94, 95. Yards 283 299 308. Completion percentage 63 70 72. Btw, his worst completion percentage came during his "best game"

 

And by the way, a receiver does not "gift wrap" a td unless he's standing still in the endzone. A go route is not an easy pass to complete. Just look at how many times EJ missed a wide open marquise or TJ graham.

 

Orton had a bad game. Get over it. Despite the sacks and the picks, he's been pretty damn good up until now which is why his qbr and completion percentage have been ranking among the best qbs in the league.

 

 

 

Orton is crap. If Watkins doesn't make a miracle catch against Detroit he may have lost his job after the Patriots game. He is what we knew he was - a capable backup. One more loss and there is no reason not to go back to EJ.

 

Look at ej's stats and orton's stats this year and then tell me why u don't have ur head completely up your rear end for making a statement like that?

 

 

You know, KC is a pretty good team with experienced coaching. For example they beat NE like a drum.

If Bryce Brown doesn't fumble on he 3 yard line or if Chandler recovers, the Bills probably win. Its that close and of course Orton is again our savior. He's still the best alternative.

 

How dare you speak reason in this kingdom?!!!

[BillsFan-4-Ever]

When Orton can

 

A) lead the O to score either 1 TD or multiple FG's per QTR

 

or I'll even accept

 

B) long drive, score, punt, long drive, score, punt

 

NOT

long drive, score, punt, punt, punt, punt, short field score, punt, punt, short field score, punt, punt

 

I will stop complaining about him.

[C.Biscuit97]

When Orton can

 

A) lead the O to score either 1 TD or multiple FG's per QTR

 

or I'll even accept

 

B) long drive, score, punt, long drive, score, punt

 

NOT

long drive, score, punt, punt, punt, punt, short field score, punt, punt, short field score, punt, punt

 

I will stop complaining about him.

 

This is the perfect game for Orton. He just needs to be his normal average self. Don't lose the game. We won 2 games against Miami with Thad.

 

Also, throw it to Sammy. He's really good.

[BillsFan-4-Ever]

This is the perfect game for Orton. He just needs to be his normal average self. Don't lose the game. We won 2 games against Miami with Thad.

 

Also, throw it to Sammy. He's really good.