vegas55 Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Analytics matter. In a league where talent levels are fairly even, and close games are the norm, strategic game management based on mathematically valid analytics, vs the "gut feeling" of a coach can often spell the difference between a win or loss. Marrone does have his strengths as a head coach, but he pays lip service to analytics, and consistently ignores them and goes with his gut and "experience". He is so often wrong, and it costs the Bills dearly. Analytics screams out that with the rules changes the NFL has made, this a pass first, pass happy league. The passing game sets up the running game, not vice versa. Yet the Bills have strived all year to be a run first, "balanced" offense, with the intent to set up the passing game with the run. It's been a very predictable failure. If the league passes rule after rule to encourage the pass, and passes no rules to help the running game, it's the height of stupidity to keep emphasizing the run. Finally yesterday, the Bills gave in, with many passes on first down and an overall emphasis on the passing game. And surprise surprise, the running game finally started to click. The passing game set up the running game. Analytics screams out that on that 4th and inches in the fourth quarter the correct call is to go for it. And Marrone, ever scornful of analytics, but enamored with his gut feelings, declines to do so. The percentages of making a first down there are extremely high, but hey, why pay attention to statistics when your one and half years of experience as an NFL coach tells you to (once again) punt. The strategic game management has been awful all year, and yesterday was an example of how costly it can be. Hey the Bills may have lost anyway, but bad decisions limit their options and reduce their chances of winning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeGOATski Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 (edited) It was 4th and a full yard on our own 41 yard line. Down by 4. It was the right call to punt it and trust the defense. They made the stop and gave us a real chance to make the go-ahead TD or pull within 1 with a FG. The real questionable call was going for it on 4th and 10 at the 15 yard line. Maybe analytics is what told him to do that... Edited November 10, 2014 by LeGOATski Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miyagi-Do Karate Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 I would like to know whether he uses analytics at all during the game. To me, that is the real value of having an analytics department-- i.e., gamedaty tactics. What if the analytics guy had told Marrone, "You have an 88% chance of making a 1st down on 4th and inches"?-- I am pretty sure he would have gone for it. Though it would never happen, I have been an advocate of having the guy calling the gameday shots NOT be the head coach. Get a guy who is the analytics guy to make all of those tactical decisions on gameday-- e.g., whether to kick a FG, or go for it on 4th down, etc. Head coaches can maybe weigh in on that decision. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Voice of Truth Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 (edited) Analytics matter. In a league where talent levels are fairly even, and close games are the norm, strategic game management based on mathematically valid analytics, vs the "gut feeling" of a coach can often spell the difference between a win or loss. Marrone does have his strengths as a head coach, but he pays lip service to analytics, and consistently ignores them and goes with his gut and "experience". He is so often wrong, and it costs the Bills dearly. Analytics screams out that with the rules changes the NFL has made, this a pass first, pass happy league. The passing game sets up the running game, not vice versa. Yet the Bills have strived all year to be a run first, "balanced" offense, with the intent to set up the passing game with the run. It's been a very predictable failure. If the league passes rule after rule to encourage the pass, and passes no rules to help the running game, it's the height of stupidity to keep emphasizing the run. Finally yesterday, the Bills gave in, with many passes on first down and an overall emphasis on the passing game. And surprise surprise, the running game finally started to click. The passing game set up the running game. Analytics screams out that on that 4th and inches in the fourth quarter the correct call is to go for it. And Marrone, ever scornful of analytics, but enamored with his gut feelings, declines to do so. The percentages of making a first down there are extremely high, but hey, why pay attention to statistics when your one and half years of experience as an NFL coach tells you to (once again) punt. The strategic game management has been awful all year, and yesterday was an example of how costly it can be. Hey the Bills may have lost anyway, but bad decisions limit their options and reduce their chances of winning I really agree with you on how huge game management and tactics are in a game. They are crucial. I get infuriated when coaches mismanage games. I do not even do this in hindsight. I can see their mistakes as they are making them in real time. So I am fully on board with your point of strategy matters and analytics really matter. I'm not sure about the exact scenario you are talking about though. I agreed with the punt. One thing about analytics is it uses data from teams across the entire league etc. It does not factor in what has happened in the game that is being played. It does not factor in personnel matchups and what teams strengths are. For example, yesterday, our defense was suffocating the Chiefs. They were really struggling to move the ball. I don't think it is unreasonable for a coach to say, "Our defense has been stopping them all day. Punt it away and we'll get the ball back. We don't want to risk 40 yards of field position." Again, I agree with your point as a whole. I don't know if yesterday's example is the best one to drive your point home though. Edited November 10, 2014 by The Voice of Truth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dirtbag Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannc Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 I would like to know whether he uses analytics at all during the game. To me, that is the real value of having an analytics department-- i.e., gamedaty tactics. What if the analytics guy had told Marrone, "You have an 88% chance of making a 1st down on 4th and inches"?-- I am pretty sure he would have gone for it. Though it would never happen, I have been an advocate of having the guy calling the gameday shots NOT be the head coach. Get a guy who is the analytics guy to make all of those tactical decisions on gameday-- e.g., whether to kick a FG, or go for it on 4th down, etc. Head coaches can maybe weigh in on that decision. I agree 100%, and after watching Marrone in action for a year and a half, I think it's safe to say that, like most NFL coaches, he doesn't give a rip about analytics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegas55 Posted November 10, 2014 Author Share Posted November 10, 2014 It was 4th and a full yard on our own 41 yard line. Down by 4. It was the right call to punt it and trust the defense. They made the stop and gave us a real chance to make the go-ahead TD or pull within 1 with a FG. The real questionable call was going for it on 4th and 10 at the 15 yard line. Maybe analytics is what told him to do that... It wasn't even close to a full yard, but that is beside the point. If you "trust the defense" then trust them to stop KC from scoring a touchdown in the (statistically) unlikely event your offense can't pick up 36 (or less) inches. If you trust our defense to hold KC to a field goal, you are not much worse off - the offense has to score a TD in either event. Yes the defense made a stop after we punted - but that took time off the clock when what we needed then was time and possessions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Best Player Available Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 I don't want this guy making any gameday calls.They had to take the goal posts down so he wouldn't hurt himself walking off the field after the promo shot. Should have hired C. Kelly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
San-O Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 I think they make up their minds what they're going to do during the week, preparing the game plan, and then do it. I see no strategic thinking whatsoever. Go pass happy in the RED ZONE against one of the best pass D's in the league where the field is additionally compressed? In addition, oh well, never mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeGOATski Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 (edited) It wasn't even close to a full yard, but that is beside the point. If you "trust the defense" then trust them to stop KC from scoring a touchdown in the (statistically) unlikely event your offense can't pick up 36 (or less) inches. If you trust our defense to hold KC to a field goal, you are not much worse off - the offense has to score a TD in either event. Yes the defense made a stop after we punted - but that took time off the clock when what we needed then was time and possessions. It was a full yard, man. It was a smart call to punt instead of risk giving the Chiefs the ball on the Bills' side. It's almsot giving them a guaranteed 3 points. That's dumb. Buffalo could've kicked the FG, stopped the Chiefs again, and kicked another FG for the win. Or Orton could've made that TD pass to Hogan. You're wasting your breath trying to point to this 4th and 1 punt as a mistake. I think they make up their minds what they're going to do during the week, preparing the game plan, and then do it. I see no strategic thinking whatsoever. Go pass happy in the RED ZONE against one of the best pass D's in the league where the field is additionally compressed? In addition, oh well, never mind. KC has not given up a rushing TD all year. It's easy to say "they should've just run the ball." The Bills would've been the first team to rush for a TD on them, if not for Brown's fumble. Edited November 10, 2014 by LeGOATski Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Just in Atlanta Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 If THAT is the picture of our Analytics guy, then he should know that wearing creased khackies, digital watches and bowl haircuts reduces your chances of getting laid to only .29 percent. And those are the odds with a prostitute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boatdrinks Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 It was 4th and a full yard on our own 41 yard line. Down by 4. It was the right call to punt it and trust the defense. They made the stop and gave us a real chance to make the go-ahead TD or pull within 1 with a FG. The real questionable call was going for it on 4th and 10 at the 15 yard line. Maybe analytics is what told him to do that... It wasn't a full yard, but the odds are still in your favor. The fourth down you question wasn't that questionable. You had the option of either getting a first down and keeping possession or scoring the go ahead points on maybe a single play. Or you could kick the FG and risk not seeing the ball again or needing quite a few plays to get back in FG range. I'm guessing they felt their option was really kick a FG and then an onsides kick. I he no problem with going for it there , but they botched the whole situation to be needing the full 10 yards there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QB Bills Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Analytics matter. In a league where talent levels are fairly even, and close games are the norm, strategic game management based on mathematically valid analytics, vs the "gut feeling" of a coach can often spell the difference between a win or loss. Marrone does have his strengths as a head coach, but he pays lip service to analytics, and consistently ignores them and goes with his gut and "experience". He is so often wrong, and it costs the Bills dearly. Analytics screams out that with the rules changes the NFL has made, this a pass first, pass happy league. The passing game sets up the running game, not vice versa. Yet the Bills have strived all year to be a run first, "balanced" offense, with the intent to set up the passing game with the run. It's been a very predictable failure. If the league passes rule after rule to encourage the pass, and passes no rules to help the running game, it's the height of stupidity to keep emphasizing the run. Finally yesterday, the Bills gave in, with many passes on first down and an overall emphasis on the passing game. And surprise surprise, the running game finally started to click. The passing game set up the running game. Analytics screams out that on that 4th and inches in the fourth quarter the correct call is to go for it. And Marrone, ever scornful of analytics, but enamored with his gut feelings, declines to do so. The percentages of making a first down there are extremely high, but hey, why pay attention to statistics when your one and half years of experience as an NFL coach tells you to (once again) punt. The strategic game management has been awful all year, and yesterday was an example of how costly it can be. Hey the Bills may have lost anyway, but bad decisions limit their options and reduce their chances of winning I agree with most of what you posted here except the part about Marrone's strengths. What, pray tell, is he exactly good at? He's the worst coach of the drought era, and I'm not sure it's close. If you need analytics to help you make decisions, then you're not a good coach to begin with. I want someone who's common sense jives with what the analytics tells you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Estro Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 It was 4th and a full yard on our own 41 yard line. Down by 4. It was the right call to punt it and trust the defense. They made the stop and gave us a real chance to make the go-ahead TD or pull within 1 with a FG. The real questionable call was going for it on 4th and 10 at the 15 yard line. Maybe analytics is what told him to do that... Statistically, based on decades on data you are flat out wrong. the book in that situation gave us a 6% advantage in % of winning the game by attempting that 4th and down. You saying that the right move was to punt is no different than the ignorance of our coach. Facts can be a stubborn thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeGOATski Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 It wasn't a full yard, but the odds are still in your favor. The fourth down you question wasn't that questionable. You had the option of either getting a first down and keeping possession or scoring the go ahead points on maybe a single play. Or you could kick the FG and risk not seeing the ball again or needing quite a few plays to get back in FG range. I'm guessing they felt their option was really kick a FG and then an onsides kick. I he no problem with going for it there , but they botched the whole situation to be needing the full 10 yards there. See the full yard in the picture above. Try for the onside kick with 2:30 left and all your timeouts? Why? The 4th and 10 on the 15 was much more questionable than the 4th and 1 at the 41. Even so, Chandler was the better option than Sammy. Orton just didn't see him. Both throws are makeable, but a throw to Chandler has a higher-percentage for success than trying to fit it in to Sammy. Statistically, based on decades on data you are flat out wrong. the book in that situation gave us a 6% advantage in % of winning the game by attempting that 4th and down. You saying that the right move was to punt is no different than the ignorance of our coach. Facts can be a stubborn thing. Yet, it worked out. They held the Chiefs to 3-and-out and had great field position on the following drive. The statistics are fluid. Even if they make that first down. They still have to drive down half the field against a great KC pass defense that allows the fewest 4th quarter points in the NFL. The chances of the Bills scoring from the 15 yard line were much better than scoring from the 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solomon Grundy Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Face it guys, better QB play would have won that game, PERIOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ted William's frozen head Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Face it guys, better QB play would have won that game, PERIOD. This coaching staff is Bush league, to put it kindly. 'Spose that EJ would've won it for us, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeGOATski Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Face it guys, better QB play would have won that game, PERIOD. Better QB play, better ball security, better focus, better coaching, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dirtbag Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Face it guys, better QB play would have won that game, PERIOD. this is exactly why the coaching needs to be better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dragonborn10 Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Analytics says do what the Patriots do. They run a QB sneak in almost every third or fourth and inches. Brady converts almost every time. A quick snap there and Orton gets the first down. Bad choice by Marrone. Orton blew it on the last drive. He missed a wide open Hogan and predetermined he was throwing to Watkins on the fourth down when he had Chandler open for a first down. Hard to fault Hackett if on two of the four plays all his QB needs to do is deliver an accurate ball. That is what Orton is supposed to be able to do. But he because he is an above average back-up QB he wet himself when it mattered most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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