BuffOrange Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 Given that New England has become the Super Bowl favorite after its demolition of Denver, No. For ESPN talking heads maybe, not for Vegas. The Chiefs are almost as inconsistent as the Jets. The Jets looked better playing in Foxboro the week before they played the Bills, than the Broncos did last night. Then the Jets went out and were a trash fire against the Bills, in NJ. Then they played pretty well yesterday. It must be an oddsmaker's nightmare to set the line for Jets games. The Chiefs are also up and down. They destroyed the Pats then found it hard to get out of their own way. Last year they were a pick six on a stupid play, and a fumble recovery on a stupid play, away from losing to the hapless Bills while on their way to a great season record. Who knows what team shows up on Sunday. The Bills OTOH are pretty consistent. They were about the same quality the first four games, trending gradually downward to the Texans game. Since Orton took over, they've been at the same B+ level every game, which has been good enough for three wins but not to beat the Pats. If they keep getting B+ play they'll finish 9-7, unless they chance into playing a better team when that other team has a bad day. KC has been remarkably consistent since their week 1 debacle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFan-4-Ever Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 This is my greatest fear about this game. Alex Smith and that offense will grind you to death and win time of possession. He's not going to drop back and sit there waiting for long pass routes b/c that offense relies on the short passing game which negates one of our greatest strengths - the pass rush. If I'm the Bills coaching staff I force Alex Smith to beat us and try to completely eliminate their run game - a tough task for sure - because if we can't stop their run game Alex Smith's dinks and dunks will be that much more effective and then it's a snowball effect with their grinding offense. Make Alex Smith try and consistently complete 3rd and longs as opposed to 3rd and shorts. If you look at the games the Chiefs have lost this season: vs Titans - Smith had 35 attempts vs Broncos - Smith had 42 attempts vs SF - Smith had 30 attempts Wins: vs Fins - Smith had 25 attempts vs Pats - Smith had 26 attempts vs SD - Smith had 28 attempts vs Rams - Smith had 29 attempts vs NJY - Smith had 31 attempts Granted, this is only one side of an entire picture, but you can see how you want Smith throwing the ball more to have a better chance of beating them. so in a "passing league" for KC you are saying - Less is More Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Big Cat Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 This is my greatest fear about this game. Alex Smith and that offense will grind you to death and win time of possession. He's not going to drop back and sit there waiting for long pass routes b/c that offense relies on the short passing game which negates one of our greatest strengths - the pass rush. If I'm the Bills coaching staff I force Alex Smith to beat us and try to completely eliminate their run game - a tough task for sure - because if we can't stop their run game Alex Smith's dinks and dunks will be that much more effective and then it's a snowball effect with their grinding offense. Make Alex Smith try and consistently complete 3rd and longs as opposed to 3rd and shorts. I'm with you. I'd like to see them come out swinging and try to score a ton of points early, forcing the Chiefs out of their small ball game to beat us. I'm not holding my breath that it'll happen though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobobonators Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 so in a "passing league" for KC you are saying - Less is More With KC yeah. Was it last week where KC did not complete a single pass over 10yds? It was either last week or the week prior but I feel it was last. The stat was either Smith didn't throw the ball further than 10yds in the air on any single play, or he didn't complete a pass for more than 10yds. Whatever it was, it was absolutely ridiculous. Few teams can get away with that type of nonsense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casey D Posted November 3, 2014 Author Share Posted November 3, 2014 No. For ESPN talking heads maybe, not for Vegas. KC has been remarkably consistent since their week 1 debacle. Actually Denver was the favorite for the SB at 3.5/1 in Vegas before the game yesterday. NE was second choice at 6-1. Given that NE now has the tiebreaker for home field, I would think at worst NE would be co-favorite with Denver at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobobonators Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 This was the stat I was referring to: "Smith last Sunday was the first NFL quarterback in two years to win a game by attempting just one pass longer than 10 yards down the field." http://espn.go.com/blog/kansas-city-chiefs/post/_/id/8568/chiefs-vs-jets-preview Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nucci Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 I like when we are underdogs. Fires the team up. just against inferior teams...this one is legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John from Riverside Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 just against inferior teams...this one is legit. Come on....u act like we haven't beaten a quality team this year...... This is simply not making stupid mistakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casey D Posted November 3, 2014 Author Share Posted November 3, 2014 just against inferior teams...this one is legit. Detroit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PO'14 Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 Basically Vegas is saying that on neutral field KC would be favorite by 3. Pretty reasonable considering the last few years of football! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannc Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 Basically Vegas is saying that on neutral field KC would be favorite by 3. Pretty reasonable considering the last few years of football! No, they are saying KC would be favored by 4.5 on a neutral field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
All_Pro_Bills Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 (edited) No, they are saying KC would be favored by 4.5 on a neutral field. I believe the Bills were favored in only 1 (against Minn) game of 8 all season so whether they are favored or not by the oddsmakers hasn't meant anything all season unless you gamble on the games. Against Chicago, Miami, Detroit, and New York they were underdogs by somehow 'beat' the odds. Official lines on the Bills games this year picked the winner correctly 50% of the time, the same as a coin flip and based on the odds makers and the money flow the Bills should be 1-7 this season. Edited November 3, 2014 by All_Pro_Bills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chandler#81 Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 I would go a little further and say the month of November is a must win.....one slip and it's over. This. Given the winning records of 3 of our next 4 opponents- none of which are in 1st Place in their Divisions, November for the Bills shapes up as Single Elimination November. 4 straight conference wins still won't guarantee a Playoff spot, but a loss will have us outside looking in. Damn that Texans game!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CodeMonkey Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 I believe the Bills were favored in only 1 (against Minn) game of 8 all season so whether they are favored or not by the oddsmakers hasn't meant anything all season unless you gamble on the games. Against Chicago, Miami, Detroit, and New York they were underdogs by somehow 'beat' the odds. Official lines on the Bills games this year picked the winner correctly 50% of the time, the same as a coin flip and based on the odds makers and the money flow the Bills should be 1-7 this season. Most football fans, but not Bills fans, that I know think the Bills should have 1 or 2 wins so far this season (Jests and Vikings). Not saying I necessarily agree, but that seems to be the perception. Bills have been "lucky". FG kicker missing 3 out of 3 in a game, opponents top RBs going out in the first series etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PO'14 Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 No, they are saying KC would be favored by 4.5 on a neutral field. Yup, was day dreaming. Still a reasonable point spread considering the history in the last few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webster Guy Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 Really? Given that the Bills play the Jests (at home this time) and the Raiders? The Chiefs and the Browns are also winnable, particularly being at home. Lucky to win 2 more? yeah you're right. ugh. I just get so frustrated with Hackett it clouds my judgement. I've gotta get over it. I know its tough to run ANY play in the nfl without a serviceable Oline, its not all on him, but it's hard to not wonder what we could be like with an elite nfl OC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casey D Posted November 3, 2014 Author Share Posted November 3, 2014 This. Given the winning records of 3 of our next 4 opponents- none of which are in 1st Place in their Divisions, November for the Bills shapes up as Single Elimination November. 4 straight conference wins still won't guarantee a Playoff spot, but a loss will have us outside looking in. Damn that Texans game!! One loss will likely not eliminate them. It would leave them 8-4 going into December. And while it looks like 11-5 will be needed to get in right now, it always tends to look that way this time of year and then it almost never ends up being the case. If you don't make it into the playoffs at 10-6, it is surprising. So I'd take 8-4 at the end of the month, and hope that a team with playoff aspirations in December can beat Oakland and manage to win just one from Denver, New England or Green Bay at home. But one of the next two games is must win, as are the home games against the Jets and Brown later in the month. 7-5 = toast in my view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoloinOhio Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 Chefs fans are interesting. From their Bills thread: "Watkins isn't the polished route-runner that Percy Harvin is" http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=288040 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobobonators Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 Chefs fans are interesting. From their Bills thread: "Watkins isn't the polished route-runner that Percy Harvin is" http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=288040 Yeah i thought that comment was absurd. The reason Harvin is highly thought of is bc of his route running. Everyone knows that. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoloinOhio Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 Yeah i thought that comment was absurd. The reason Harvin is highly thought of is bc of his route running. Everyone knows that. Lol I literally laughed out loud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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