Offensive Concerns

[vegas55]

Great opening day win but that game continued a troubling pattern for the Bills. Despite the tried and true statement that the team that wins the turnover battle wins the game, the Bills continue to struggle in games where they actually win the turnover battle. Last year they lost several games when they won the turnover battle, including the opening game against Pats, a game remarkably similiar to the Bears game. When an NFL team wins the turnover battle by a factor of two, they win 82% of the time. Yet we accomplish that yet have to go into OT to win. Last years game v Ravens very similar, win turnover battle by two, barely squeak out game.

 

The reason for this is pretty obvious. When Bills grab a decent lead, the offense goes into a shell. Against the Bears, a 17-7 lead vanishes as Bills continually attempt to run into a 9 man front, or throw designated (very) short passes. It was a pattern they followed last year.

 

It's interesting what happened when the Bills suddenly found themselves down 7-0. They came out throwing, and throwing the ball downfield. It was not the running game that got them back into the game, but it was the overly conservative play calls that later allowed Bears back in the game.

[DC Greg]

Great opening day win but that game continued a troubling pattern for the Bills. Despite the tried and true statement that the team that wins the turnover battle wins the game, the Bills continue to struggle in games where they actually win the turnover battle. Last year they lost several games when they won the turnover battle, including the opening game against Pats, a game remarkably similiar to the Bears game. When an NFL team wins the turnover battle by a factor of two, they win 82% of the time. Yet we accomplish that yet have to go into OT to win. Last years game v Ravens very similar, win turnover battle by two, barely squeak out game.

 

The reason for this is pretty obvious. When Bills grab a decent lead, the offense goes into a shell. Against the Bears, a 17-7 lead vanishes as Bills continually attempt to run into a 9 man front, or throw designated (very) short passes. It was a pattern they followed last year.

 

It's interesting what happened when the Bills suddenly found themselves down 7-0. They came out throwing, and throwing the ball downfield. It was not the running game that got them back into the game, but it was the overly conservative play calls that later allowed Bears back in the game.

 

Legit points. I said before the season that if the Bills can score more than 24 in a game they are likely to win almost all of those. Hopefully they keep attacking and don't let up. EJ threw big downfield passes to RW and MW late in the game that helped seal the win, so I wouldn't say they have been afraid to throw downfield at all. Let's just hope it continues to improve.

[frogger]

The key in the upcoming game is to separate safeties from the linebackers...Chris Gragg and Chandler along with the running backs on routes.

[Mooshocker]

I share your concerns! I really can't tell if it's Hacket's conservative play calling or EJ's distrust in his downfield progressions. Either way, more often than not, I find myself scratching my head wondering why the constant checkdown's. What, exactly, do we have to lose by stretching the field? When it's 3 and 11 and we throw a two hard out, where is the value in that? Nonetheless, great game, great feeling going into work Monday and a great week by and large! Let's keep the foot on the gas and take it to the fish!

[PO'14]

That terrible third quarter brought back the fresh memories of " HERE WE GO AGAIN"

[vegas55]

 

 

Legit points. I said before the season that if the Bills can score more than 24 in a game they are likely to win almost all of those. Hopefully they keep attacking and don't let up. EJ threw big downfield passes to RW and MW late in the game that helped seal the win, so I wouldn't say they have been afraid to throw downfield at all. Let's just hope it continues to improve.

 

Yes EJ did throw big downfield passes late in the game. But that's my point - he did this at a time when the game was tied. Just like early in the first quarter when they were down he also threw great downfield passes. My point was when they get a decent lead (often due to turnovers) they stop throwing downfield and go into a shell. They only emerge from that shell when the other team comes back and ties or takes a lead. This is why the Bills often defy the odds, and lose games where they won the turnover battle.

[bananathumb]

We'll see how bad Hackett is this Sunday.

[The Wiz]

Yes EJ did throw big downfield passes late in the game. But that's my point - he did this at a time when the game was tied. Just like early in the first quarter when they were down he also threw great downfield passes. My point was when they get a decent lead (often due to turnovers) they stop throwing downfield and go into a shell. They only emerge from that shell when the other team comes back and ties or takes a lead. This is why the Bills often defy the odds, and lose games where they won the turnover battle.

I think it falls under them playing safe, instead of playing to win. Teams like the 2011 Pat that would hang 30,40,50 points on teams said "if they can't stop us, we're just gonna keep doing it" show what it means to play to win. I do feel they want to limit the amount of risk involved in the game from a rookie QB and a new O line. I think once the confidence grows in letting them just play we will see less of the safe plays when they have a lead. JMO.

[Solomon Grundy]

Scott Chandler must show up! Him catching passes down the seam/across the middle of field will be vital to the Bills victory

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

I think they just played a bad third quarter. I didn't see anything that really changed in terms of game plan. They need to learn to play a more consistent game.

[vegas55]

I share your concerns! I really can't tell if it's Hacket's conservative play calling or EJ's distrust in his downfield progressions. Either way, more often than not, I find myself scratching my head wondering why the constant checkdown's. What, exactly, do we have to lose by stretching the field? When it's 3 and 11 and we throw a two hard out, where is the value in that? Nonetheless, great game, great feeling going into work Monday and a great week by and large! Let's keep the foot on the gas and take it to the fish!

 

But if you review that third quarter +, it was clearly not a case of EJ checking down. The pass plays, when called, were designed as short passes, screens etc

[jletha]

I totally agree with this concept. On Sundays I never care because we just got a win but I think truly good teams should run away with games when they get three turnovers. Even the last time we beat the Pats we had to intercept Tom 4 times in order to give ourselves a chance, although I know this team is almost entirely different than that team. Hopefully if/when we get turnovers this Sunday we can get keep our foot on the gas in the later quarters.

[PolishDave]

I think it falls under them playing safe, instead of playing to win. Teams like the 2011 Pat that would hang 30,40,50 points on teams said "if they can't stop us, we're just gonna keep doing it" show what it means to play to win. I do feel they want to limit the amount of risk involved in the game from a rookie QB and a new O line. I think once the confidence grows in letting them just play we will see less of the safe plays when they have a lead. JMO.

Exactly what I was thinking. The coaches are trying to protect a lead and avoid big turnovers. Sometimes that works and sometimes you end up not scoring on a drive that you might have otherwised scored on because you were too conservative. You really can't expect the Bills to blow anyone out unless it happens solely based on the running game. The coaches simply won't be that aggressive once they have the lead. Maybe that changes once EJ proves himself to be a consistently good player.

[Best Player Available]

I think they just played a bad third quarter. I didn't see anything that really changed in terms of game plan. They need to learn to play a more consistent game.

I'm still jacked they finally figured put how to finish a game.

[Thurmal34]

@ vegas55

 

The Bills most certainly did not come out throwing after getting down 7-0. On the ensuing drive, they ran 9 plays. 6 were runs, 3 were passes.

 

@ Mooshocker

 

41.8% of Manuel's attempts were 10 yards or more - good for 8th or 9th best in the league. Where are you getting this check down idea from?

[vegas55]

@ vegas55

 

The Bills most certainly did not come out throwing after getting down 7-0. On the ensuing drive, they ran 9 plays. 6 were runs, 3 were passes.

 

@ Mooshocker

 

41.8% of Manuel's attempts were 10 yards or more - good for 8th or 9th best in the league. Where are you getting this check down idea from?

 

Please - look at the context. The 3 passing plays accounted for the vast majority of the yards gained in that drive. Sure when they get close to the end zone, a couple of runs, including EJ on the 3 yard TD run. None of the running plays gained significant yardage; it was the downfield passes that made that drive

[Thurmal34]

The gains are irrelevant, though, no? 3 passes on 9 plays is hardly "coming out throwing".

 

The drive went like this:

 

pass, run, run, pass, run, run, pass, run, run.

 

That seems pretty consistent with their overall offensive philosophy and entirely in line with what they want to do all game long.

 

In no way, shape, or form is it coming out throwing.

[BackInDaDay]

Great opening day win but that game continued a troubling pattern for the Bills. Despite the tried and true statement that the team that wins the turnover battle wins the game, the Bills continue to struggle in games where they actually win the turnover battle. Last year they lost several games when they won the turnover battle, including the opening game against Pats, a game remarkably similiar to the Bears game. When an NFL team wins the turnover battle by a factor of two, they win 82% of the time. Yet we accomplish that yet have to go into OT to win. Last years game v Ravens very similar, win turnover battle by two, barely squeak out game.

 

The reason for this is pretty obvious. When Bills grab a decent lead, the offense goes into a shell. Against the Bears, a 17-7 lead vanishes as Bills continually attempt to run into a 9 man front, or throw designated (very) short passes. It was a pattern they followed last year.

 

It's interesting what happened when the Bills suddenly found themselves down 7-0. They came out throwing, and throwing the ball downfield. It was not the running game that got them back into the game, but it was the overly conservative play calls that later allowed Bears back in the game.

 

i don't recall, but were we more aggressive with better field possession? i could see the coaches taking more chances where a turnover wouldn't give the Bears great field position, but i thought we mixed it up pretty good.

[vegas55]

The gains are irrelevant, though, no? 3 passes on 9 plays is hardly "coming out throwing".

 

The drive went like this:

 

pass, run, run, pass, run, run, pass, run, run.

 

That seems pretty consistent with their overall offensive philosophy and entirely in line with what they want to do all game long.

 

In no way, shape, or form is it coming out throwing.

 

Well look if you start at your own 10 yard line, complete an 85 yard pass, and then run it three times from the five yard for the score ; I guess your point would be 3 running plays to one passing play means a conservative approach. The WHOLE point is that when the Bills were behind, they threw downfield. Ahead 17-7, no downfield throws despite facing a 9 man front. Chicago comes back,ties the game, we start throwing downfield again. Sammy Watkins caught 3 passes first quarter, was barely targeted rest of game. Can't sit on a lead in the NFL. BTW, what would be your explanation as to why Bills lose so many games when they win turnover battle, which was the gist of the original post.

[3rdand12]

That terrible third quarter brought back the fresh memories of " HERE WE GO AGAIN"

it was more the bend dont break offense. lol

 

We'll see how bad Hackett is this Sunday.

Yippee!

[Thurmal34]

Sorry vegas. I see that my posts came across as contrarian, wasn't my intent. Was only saying that the points came in the context of what their offensive philosophy is.

 

As for losing "so many" games when winning the turnover battle, I'd have to see proof that was actually true before I can comment.

[3rdand12]

I'm still jacked they finally figured put how to finish a game.

hell yes we are !

 

Sorry vegas. I see that my posts came across as contrarian, wasn't my intent. Was only saying that the points came in the context of what their offensive philosophy is.

 

As for losing "so many" games when winning the turnover battle, I'd have to see proof that was actually true before I can comment.

Fairly stated.

They did execute what they called

[K-9]

From looking at the Chicago game it seems clear the coaches weren't going to rely on EJ to win it as the run/pass ratio suggests. But I don't think their passing game was conservative as EJ was attempting mostly intermediate to long passes all afternoon, even in the seemingly conservative 3rd quarter when we only ran something like a dozen plays.

 

I'm hoping the coaches were just trying to protect a young QB on the road in the first game of the season. I fully expect EJ to take shots on go routes every time he has Goodwin or Watkins singled up.

 

That said, if we're pounding the rock and getting yards I'll take it.

 

GO BILLS!!!

Edited September 13, 2014 by K-9

[3rdand12]

From looking at the Chicago game it seems clear the coaches weren't going to rely on EJ to win it as the run/pass ratio suggests. But I don't think their passing game was conservative as EJ was attempting mostly intermediate to long passes all afternoon, even in the seemingly conservative 3rd quarter when we only ran something like a dozen plays.

 

I'm hoping the coaches were just trying to protect a young QB on the road in the first game of the season. I fully expect EJ to take shots on go routes every time he has Goodwin or Watkins singled up.

 

That said, if we're pounding the rock and getting yards I'll take it.

 

GO BILLS!!!

I might guess the Bills guys are very aware of Finnegan and Grimes

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

I'm still jacked they finally figured put how to finish a game.

 

Me too! The fact that they overcame a crappy 3rd qtr to get it done also showed a lot.