Do you believe that the Toronto group will keep the team in Buffalo?

[ET1062]

Terry Pegula cashed in 1.7B recently, not the 1.2B I have read in a few of the above posts.

 

http://www.wgrz.com/story/news/2014/06/12/terry-pegula-company-selling-land/10373061/

 

Terry Pegula cashed in 1.7B recently, not the 1.2B I have read in a few of the above posts.

 

http://www.wgrz.com/story/news/2014/06/12/terry-pegula-company-selling-land/10373061/

[Kelly the Dog]

The numbers don't add up. Are you suggesting that all his wealth is liquid? I doubt it. There is no way that he has the up front resources $$$$ to be an approximate 1/3 owner of a team estimated to cost $1.2 B or more. I don't doubt your claim that Tannenbaum and Rogers were going to allow JBJ to run the organization. But from an ownership standpoint he would be very much subserviant to them.

 

If the canadian group bought the team and moved it to Canada who was going to pay for a canadian stadium? That certainly would have to be factored in the added future cost for the more than $1 B franchise. For the most part the public authorities don't spend public money for sports' facilities. The new owners would also be mostly responsible for the new facility. Is JBJ going to be involved in that part of the business? If so there is an added expense for him.

 

Where I disagree with your position is in your assessment of JBJ as an owner. His net worth doesn't come close to allowing him to be near a 1/3 partner in the business. Net worth doesn't translate to cash on hand. That's what it takes to buy a NFL franchise. Terry Pegula recently cashed in an asset to have $1.2 B in hand. That is much different from JBJ's financial status.

 

 

 

I have never owned a Bon Jovi album and I have never been to his concert. I don't even like his hair!

The only reason anyone thinks that Bon Jovi cannot afford it is because of a Forbes report estimating his worth. Those are notoriously inaccurate. The Sun said people close to this have said that JBJ is worth far, far more, and it's more like 500m. That's why they said if this gets into a bidding war, the Toronto guys are out.

 

He could easily say to himself I can live on 100m while still working and making money and toss 400m into the pot. That could be where the 1.2b Toronto number came from.

[Kirby Jackson]

The numbers don't add up. Are you suggesting that all his wealth is liquid? I doubt it. There is no way that he has the up front resources $$$$ to be an approximate 1/3 owner of a team estimated to cost $1.2 B or more. I don't doubt your claim that Tannenbaum and Rogers were going to allow JBJ to run the organization. But from an ownership standpoint he would be very much subserviant to them.

 

If the canadian group bought the team and moved it to Canada who was going to pay for a canadian stadium? That certainly would have to be factored in the added future cost for the more than $1 B franchise. For the most part the public authorities don't spend public money for sports' facilities. The new owners would also be mostly responsible for the new facility. Is JBJ going to be involved in that part of the business? If so there is an added expense for him.

 

Where I disagree with your position is in your assessment of JBJ as an owner. His net worth doesn't come close to allowing him to be near a 1/3 partner in the business. Net worth doesn't translate to cash on hand. That's what it takes to buy a NFL franchise. Terry Pegula recently cashed in an asset to have $1.2 B in hand. That is much different from JBJ's financial status.

 

What I am saying is that his net worth is significantly higher than what has been reported. His liquidty is significantly higher than was has been reported as well. JBJ is going to be the controlling owner of that group (if they miraculously win). According to NFL rules, he must own 30% of the team to be that. Again, he is probably not far from being tapped out at the moment but he has at LEAST $400M liquid.

 

I do not know how he will contribute to the funding of the new stadium. My guess is that his group would be looking to pass along the cost through PSL's, his partners and the state. Perhaps, this is where Congel comes into play as well?

[TheFunPolice]

either way, Bon Jovi is not in a position to get into any type of bidding war with Terry Pegula, and it sounds like he is the limiting factor in the Toronto group's bid.

 

I am also pretty sure that Rogers gets grounded for 2 weeks if he asks his family for more than $400 million

[JohnC]

Kirby/Kelly, If JBJ cashes out for $400 M in reality he has to cash out for much more due to his tax obligations (capital gains) because of his sell off. So in reality he has to cash out for much more than $400 M. Even if he was liquid that doesn't mean that he has the ability to liquidate the majority of his net worth so quickly (on demand). The franchise sale is already in progress. Payment is expected at the time of the sale. If he hasn't already cashed out then he won't be in position to right away add his money into the pile.

 

The point I have made on this topic is that it is my contention that Tanenbaum and Rogers are the main money sources. If JBJ is going to contribute a third share then I don't believe that he has the wherewithal to stay in the bidding competition. In addition, there is a looming stadium cost consideration that all bidders have to factor in when making their bid. If that is the case then I'm very confident that JBJ will not be able to keep up with the action. That's how I see it.

Edited July 30, 2014 by JohnC

[Kirby Jackson]

Kirby/Kelly, If JBJ cashes out for $400 M in reality he has to cash out for much more due to his tax obligatione (capital gains) because of his sell off. So in reality he has to cash out much more than $400 M. Even if he was liquid that doesn't mean that he has the ability to liquidate the majority of his net worth so quickly (on demand). The franchise sale is due very soon. Payment is expected at the time of the sale. If he hasn't already cashed out then he won't be in position to add his money into the pile right away.

 

The point I have made on this topic is that it is my contention that Tanenbaum and Rogers are the main money sources. If JBJ is going to contribute a third share then I don't believe that he has the wherewithal to stay in the game. If each of the three participants in this canadian group intend to contribute a third of the price then it is my opinion that they have run out of resources to stay in the bidding game. In addition, there is a looming stadium cost consideration that all bidders have to factor in when making their bid. If that is the case then I'm very confident that JBJ will not be able to keep up with the action. That's how I see it.

I am well aware of all of that. The point is if they bid $1.2B as reported $400M (minimum) is from Bon Jovi. That is why it is so good that Pegula is already at such a high level. They cannot keep up with him. That was the point that we were trying to make. If the bidding goes to $1.5B can JBJ contribute $500M? This doesn't include anything stadium related or anything else. JBJ is close to his ceiling.

[JohnC]

either way, Bon Jovi is not in a position to get into any type of bidding war with Terry Pegula, and it sounds like he is the limiting factor in the Toronto group's bid.

 

I am also pretty sure that Rogers gets grounded for 2 weeks if he asks his family for more than $400 million

 

The Rogers Trust has non family members trustees who are obligated to prudently manage the trust. He simply can't tap into it for his own personal business schemes because he is a family member.

[TheFunPolice]

I am well aware of all of that. The point is if they bid $1.2B as reported $400M (minimum) is from Bon Jovi. That is why it is so good that Pegula is already at such a high level. They cannot keep up with him. That was the point that we were trying to make. If the bidding goes to $1.5B can JBJ contribute $500M? This doesn't include anything stadium related or anything else. JBJ is close to his ceiling.

 

I guess the only other option is to try to borrow to put up more $$, but that starts to get into danger territory for BJ financially

 

BJ is just not on the same level as NFL owners

[JohnC]

I am well aware of all of that. The point is if they bid $1.2B as reported $400M (minimum) is from Bon Jovi. That is why it is so good that Pegula is already at such a high level. They cannot keep up with him. That was the point that we were trying to make. If the bidding goes to $1.5B can JBJ contribute $500M? This doesn't include anything stadium related or anything else. JBJ is close to his ceiling.

 

Let's just conclude that we are in a "general" agreement and be relieved that this process is almost over. I'm confident that Pegula will be standing at the podium when it is over.

[Kirby Jackson]

 

 

I guess the only other option is to try to borrow to put up more $$, but that starts to get into danger territory for BJ financially

 

BJ is just not on the same level as NFL owners

There aren't going to be many assets left. He already liquidated his last pair of 28" x 24" jeans. The big difference is that Pegula's money makes money while JBJ's money would cost him money.

 

 

 

Let's just conclude that we are in a "general" agreement and be relieved that this process is almost over. I'm confident that Pegula will be standing at the podium when it is over.

With you 100%, if Pegula started at like $700m I might have been nervous. Maybe he isn't all in? Maybe he was just bidding because he felt he had to? That doesn't appear to be the case.

[Peter]

As I mentioned in another post, I do not think for a moment that Mary Wilson (or the other trustees) are going to rip our hearts out given the money that the Pegulas already have put on the table. That would be contrary to what I believe the kind of people they are and go against what I have to believe Ralph's intent or preference was (either written or unwritten).

 

As an aside, the Sabres v. Maple Leafs games are going to be even more intense than they have ever been.

[Kelly the Dog]

As I mentioned in another post, I do not think for a moment that Mary Wilson (or the other trustees) are going to rip our hearts out given the money that the Pegulas already have put on the table. That would be contrary to what I believe the kind of people they are and go against what I have to believe Ralph's intent or preference was (either written or unwritten).

 

As an aside, the Sabres v. Maple Leafs games are going to be even more intense than they have ever been.

Agreed. I said a few different times that no way in hell does Ralph put her and his niece in the four person trust if all he does is want to make the most money off the sale. He just wouldn't do that to his family, to make them the bad guys. He would have chosen someone else. Littman and more Detroit lawyers.

[BUFFALOKIE]

I checked many posts and didn't see anyone address why the Argos can't be expanded to the NFL... Sure, it's ugly, confusing, Canadian football, but can't they adapt to the real thing?

 

I like that idea! Toronto has a team. Just fold them into the mix.

[Billsguy]

As I mentioned in another post, I do not think for a moment that Mary Wilson (or the other trustees) are going to rip our hearts out given the money that the Pegulas already have put on the table. That would be contrary to what I believe the kind of people they are and go against what I have to believe Ralph's intent or preference was (either written or unwritten).

 

 

 

If Ralph Wilson wanted the team to stay in Buffalo indefinitely, he wouldn't have allowed the team to be sold to the highest bidder after his demise. It could have been arranged beforehand. He had the opportunity, but he didn't do it.

[Kirby Jackson]

 

 

If Ralph Wilson wanted the team to stay in Buffalo indefinitely, he wouldn't have allowed the team to be sold to the highest bidder after his demise. It could have been arranged beforehand. He had the opportunity, but he didn't do it.

He did want the team to remain (which is what you are seeing play out). There had to be a viable option willing to keep the team in WNY (which there has been). The "threat" of losing the team has been SO overplayed in the media. As the details and negotiations started to play out we are learning that the team will be here for a long time. It was RW's last gift.

[KDIGGZ]

LOVE IT!!! http://www.buffalonews.com/sports/bills-nfl/in-chase-for-the-bills-terry-pegula-is-the-quiet-bidder-who-will-refuse-to-lose-20140730?two-bills-drive

[KDIGGZ]

According to Kryk it might be game over already for the Toronto group (and this thread): http://blogs.canoe.ca/krykslants/nfl/bidding-war-what-bidding-war-if-reports-of-pegulas-first-bid-are-true-toronto-group-cant-match-it-sources/

[MattM]

He did want the team to remain (which is what you are seeing play out). There had to be a viable option willing to keep the team in WNY (which there has been). The "threat" of losing the team has been SO overplayed in the media. As the details and negotiations started to play out we are learning that the team will be here for a long time. It was RW's last gift.

 

I'm starting to believe this as well--I just hope that as this plays out, the people of Buffalo and Bills fans come to understand this more generally.

[Hplarrm]

 

 

If Ralph Wilson wanted the team to stay in Buffalo indefinitely, he wouldn't have allowed the team to be sold to the highest bidder after his demise. It could have been arranged beforehand. He had the opportunity, but he didn't do it.

 

I think the mistake many folks are making is that they seem to assume the world consists of only binary choices and "clarity" demands one to pick one side or the other. I wish real life was this simple. It's not.

 

Virtually by definition complicated issues are in fact complicated because there are three (or more) quite reasonable choices which can be made. Or reality may simply be that there are two (likely more) competing outcomes any of which are legitimate outcomes to pursue.

 

An example of this in seen in "hot" button issues such as abortion/choice. Some folks seem to demand that a person must choose between one of two sides (I will not go too far into this as it quickly can drift off into something more appropriate for PPP, but I will reference the example here as I think that adds to clarity of the point). Actually, most "normal" folk want to both minimize (if not eliminate) abortions, AND also want to assure that the guvmint is not allowed into the bedrooms of adult women. Simple minds want us to choose one side or the other. Real people want both.

 

So too with the Buffalo/Toronto fight. Simple minds wan folks to choose one side or the other.

 

From what I see reality and the powers that be at the NFL actually want as much money as they can get.

 

There might be constraints which make what I see as the obvious choice impossible, but NO ONE has yet to make a compelling case on TSW or anyplace I have seen that the NFL given a choice between exploiting either the Buffalo market or exploiting the Toronto market will instead choose to exploit BOTH.

 

The clear smart move for the NFL overall would seem to be to get as many eyeballs with money to watch NFL games. People tend to watch when they have allegiance to a particular team which often comes when your hometown has a team.

 

Th NFL has made clear statements over the years and taken action (WFL for example)to expand the NFL. Toronto and the 6+ million eyeballs that live in GTA is an obvious choice for at least one team.

 

It seems clear to me that the obvious NFL choice here is get a franchise in Toronto as soon as you can, but that it would be a bad economic choice to throw away 45,000+ Buffalo season ticket holders. 20-30 thousand individual game ticket buyers when you put a good product on the field, millions of dollars in existing advertising relationships with WNY businesses 100s of millions of dollars in corporate welfare that state and local governments have proven willing to give the Bills to remain in Buffalo, merely to get similar largess from Toronto. It seems clear that the NFL can have both.

 

JBJ/CA also are willing to shovel $ at the NFL for a team. However, again it seems obvious that the NFL can tell them to wait before the deal is done but to keep them moving forward and busy by having JBJ/CA cement their working relationship by putting together a bid for the Bills. In fact, it helps the NFL if the JBJ/CA bid is at a large enough level (let's say $1.2 billion) that forces actual bidders (Pegula) up to $1.3 billion he has from selling land for fracking.

 

Who knows for sure but as I have been saying for several weeks it is not unreasonable to bank on the Bills remaining in Buffalo.

[May Day 10]

[/u]

 

I'm starting to believe this as well--I just hope that as this plays out, the people of Buffalo and Bills fans come to understand this more generally.

 

Without Pegula, this would be a lot more intense though and The Trust would be put to the test