Just in Atlanta Posted May 28, 2014 Share Posted May 28, 2014 Are you referring to Johnson or Woods?? In the oft chance your question is sincere :-0 the first two are Manuel and the third one is SJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Big Cat Posted May 28, 2014 Share Posted May 28, 2014 In the oft chance your question is sincere :-0 the first two are Manuel and the third one is SJ. Amazing how we can watch the same player and arrive at wildly different takeaways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buftex Posted May 28, 2014 Share Posted May 28, 2014 I don't think he is a "bad WR" by any means. I don't think, however, he was a good fit on this team as it stands today. I think he is in a much better situation now to produce, and the Bills also are in a better situation for who the QB and others WRs are. And therefore, I do not think he will be missed. I think his production will be absorbed by WRs who are a better fit for this current personnel. Specifically, I think Woods is a better all-around WR with skill set, is a natural fit in the slot where Stevie was playing, and has better chemistry with the QB. I am not sure about that. As I recall, the 49ers were dead last in the NFL in pass attempts last season, and the year before. Or maybe it was 31 of 32. The 49ers and Seahawks have been in the last two spots for two seasons, by a long shot...as I recall hearing, the #30 team each year had 50+ more passing attempts than either Seattle or San Francisco. They are the "cream of the crop" teams in the NFL right now... Harbaugh seems to be very much a run first guy...perhaps the addition of Stevie will tempt him to air it out a little more, but I don't think that is part of their philosophy. So, Stevie may be on a better team, that wins more games...but it is very likely he will have fewer opportunities than he did in Buffalo. Maybe that is a better situation...but he will have to make the best of the opportunities he gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Posted May 28, 2014 Share Posted May 28, 2014 SJ's completion percentage is average. Some fans have a selective memory due to high profile drops. And there are other players on the Bills (Choice, Graham) with higher drop rates. Losing SJ is going to hurt. http://www.sportingc...ats/drops/2013/ SJ had a down year last year, catching 52 passes for 597 yards and 3 TDs. Had he had a season like 2012 and the Bills didn't trade for Mike Williams, I'd agree with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KD in CA Posted May 28, 2014 Share Posted May 28, 2014 I don't think he is a "bad WR" by any means. I don't think, however, he was a good fit on this team as it stands today. I think he is in a much better situation now to produce, and the Bills also are in a better situation for who the QB and others WRs are. And therefore, I do not think he will be missed. I think his production will be absorbed by WRs who are a better fit for this current personnel. Specifically, I think Woods is a better all-around WR with skill set, is a natural fit in the slot where Stevie was playing, and has better chemistry with the QB. Completely agree with this. SJ was Fitz's guy but things have changed since then. Woods showed real promise last year, Goodwin showed flashes, and now with Williams/Watkins in the mix I don't see how this offense misses SJ much if at all. As for EJ, 58% vs 62% is not a big difference. Normalize the drops and all those ridiculous deep sideline routes where there was almost no chance for a completion, and he's right there. The big question is if he can take a step forward this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoloinOhio Posted May 28, 2014 Author Share Posted May 28, 2014 (edited) I am not sure about that. As I recall, the 49ers were dead last in the NFL in pass attempts last season, and the year before. Or maybe it was 31 of 32. The 49ers and Seahawks have been in the last two spots for two seasons, by a long shot...as I recall hearing, the #30 team each year had 50+ more passing attempts than either Seattle or San Francisco. They are the "cream of the crop" teams in the NFL right now... Harbaugh seems to be very much a run first guy...perhaps the addition of Stevie will tempt him to air it out a little more, but I don't think that is part of their philosophy. So, Stevie may be on a better team, that wins more games...but it is very likely he will have fewer opportunities than he did in Buffalo. Maybe that is a better situation...but he will have to make the best of the opportunities he gets. Fair enough on "production" - I think I used the wrong term though in relation to what I meant, which was he is in a better spot to valuably contribute to the team. While he may be 3rd on the depth chart at this point, Boldin is aging and Crabtree is injury prone, and I can see SJ playing in the slot a good deal there. They must have a plan for him, or they wouldn't have taken on his contract and given up a 4th rd pick. They did hurt for depth last year in the passing game when Crabtree and Davis both were injured and I think Harbaugh is desperate to take over the Seahawks in that division, I can see SJ giving Sherman problems as he did when the Bills played Seattle a couple years back. With trades in the NFL I don't ever look at them as one team trying to get rid of a "bad" player, I look at it as players being better fits and more valuable to different systems and divisions. Stevie no longer fit the plan here, he wasn't the current regime's guy, and I think both sides are better off. I can draw a conclusion from the data that wood appears reliable. Few drops for one of the top number of catches. I agree there not much you can discern about EJ. For one the deeper the pass the harder it is to tell who is at fault. I'd be more interested in passer rating with each WR. That would tell me more about what we are dealing with. Not sure he will be there. I am guessing watkins will get a look there first. Woods seems like a guy you want running deep posts/crosses. Think he'll get knocked around inside. I think Woods will play in the slot the most but I do think they will move Watkins around a lot and we will see him there too. I don't think size is an issue with Woods though as far as getting knocked around. He isn't the biggest guy at 6'0 190 but a guy like Welker is 5'9 185. Depending on what they are seeing as a matchup in the secondary, they could use any of the WRs in the slot. Edited May 28, 2014 by YoloinOhio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFan-4-Ever Posted May 28, 2014 Share Posted May 28, 2014 SJ's completion percentage is average. Some fans have a selective memory due to high profile drops. And there are other players on the Bills (Choice, Graham) with higher drop rates. Losing SJ is going to hurt. http://www.sportingc...ats/drops/2013/ I'll agree to disagree. way too much BS when it came to SJ13. can you recall 3, 4, or 5 complete games? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Big Cat Posted May 28, 2014 Share Posted May 28, 2014 SJ's completion percentage is average. Some fans have a selective memory due to high profile drops. And there are other players on the Bills (Choice, Graham) with higher drop rates. Losing SJ is going to hurt. http://www.sportingc...ats/drops/2013/ Based on the numbers you've posted here, Johnson ranked 120th out of 144 in drop percentage (of receivers targeted 50+ times) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Big Cat Posted May 28, 2014 Share Posted May 28, 2014 And guess who ranks 6 out of those 144 receivers...okay, I'll just tell you: Robert Woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Just in Atlanta Posted May 28, 2014 Share Posted May 28, 2014 You can slice and dice data. You think SJ sucks, so be it. The data I'm looking at shows a decent figure, despite having three different QBs and injuries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Big Cat Posted May 28, 2014 Share Posted May 28, 2014 (edited) You can slice and dice data. You think SJ sucks, so be it. The data I'm looking at shows a decent figure, despite having three different QBs and injuries. Slice and dice? You said he had an "average" drop percentage. It required very little slicing and dicing to disprove that. In fact, all I had to do was repeat what you said. And, as far as 2013 goes, with the same quarterbacks that couldn't do right by Stevie, Robert Woods was elite in the area you (falsely) claimed Stevie to be average. Edited May 28, 2014 by The Big Cat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Over 29 years of fanhood Posted May 28, 2014 Share Posted May 28, 2014 Fair enough on "production" - I think I used the wrong term though in relation to what I meant, which was he is in a better spot to valuably contribute to the team. While he may be 3rd on the depth chart at this point, Boldin is aging and Crabtree is injury prone, and I can see SJ playing in the slot a good deal there. They must have a plan for him, or they wouldn't have taken on his contract and given up a 4th rd pick. They did hurt for depth last year in the passing game when Crabtree and Davis both were injured and I think Harbaugh is desperate to take over the Seahawks in that division, I can see SJ giving Sherman problems as he did when the Bills played Seattle a couple years back. With trades in the NFL I don't ever look at them as one team trying to get rid of a "bad" player, I look at it as players being better fits and more valuable to different systems and divisions. Stevie no longer fit the plan here, he wasn't the current regime's guy, and I think both sides are better off. I think Woods will play in the slot the most but I do think they will move Watkins around a lot and we will see him there too. I don't think size is an issue with Woods though as far as getting knocked around. He isn't the biggest guy at 6'0 190 but a guy like Welker is 5'9 185. Depending on what they are seeing as a matchup in the secondary, they could use any of the WRs in the slot. Good point, welker though is quick and seems tough and scrappy. Woods seems more long and smooth to me. But hey, too many goods WRs... What a great problem to have Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Over 29 years of fanhood Posted May 28, 2014 Share Posted May 28, 2014 And guess who ranks 6 out of those 144 receivers...okay, I'll just tell you: Robert Woods. Nate Washington 58 catches without a drop? That's rockstar sch!tt! Thanks fitzy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Just in Atlanta Posted May 28, 2014 Share Posted May 28, 2014 Based on the numbers you've posted here, Johnson ranked 120th out of 144 in drop percentage (of receivers targeted 50+ times) Dude -- his drop percentage is 6.9 percent -- significantly better than Wes Welker, Brandon Marshall and many others. You are slicing and dicing. Regardless, he's gone. My viewpoint is he's a solid No. 2 asset. I personally will miss him as a fan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Big Cat Posted May 28, 2014 Share Posted May 28, 2014 Dude -- his drop percentage is 6.9 percent -- significantly better than Wes Welker, Brandon Marshall and many others. You are slicing and dicing. Regardless, he's gone. My viewpoint is he's a solid No. 2 asset. I personally will miss him as a fan. Many others? Well, I guess that depends on how you define "many," considering the receivers who did better far exceed your "many." I guess we also differ on the definition of "significant" given Stevie's drop percentage (6.9) and Brandon Marshall's (7.3). If you think the "slice and dice" accusation helps strengthen your case, though...have at it. The fact of the matter is, you claimed that the Bills will "miss" Stevie because his drop percentage isn't as bad as some are making it out to be. You said the percentage was "average." Then you posted a link that showed that any claim to mediocrity was simply wrong. So, I'm sorry if you'd rather I not take the stats you provided at face value, but thems the facts, partner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malazan Posted May 28, 2014 Share Posted May 28, 2014 The thought that went through my mind reading this is that if you combined the ability of all of the 'writers' at the Buffalo news...they could never have produced an article with this much analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarleyNY Posted May 28, 2014 Share Posted May 28, 2014 (edited) https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2013/01/21/signature-stats-drop-rate-wide-receivers/ Stevie Johnson had a drop rate of 12.22% in 2012. Obviously it isn't one bad year. Edited May 28, 2014 by BarleyNY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orton's Arm Posted May 29, 2014 Share Posted May 29, 2014 Exactly, it was a nice analysis but didn't come up with any real conclusions. Without comparative data, you can't. Agreed. Just to add to what you've written: I'd also like to see an analysis of poorly thrown passes which were nonetheless caught. Both for Manuel and other QBs. If we're counting the times that receivers make QBs look worse than they should (drops), we should also count the times they make QBs look better than they should (catching poorly thrown balls). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buftex Posted May 29, 2014 Share Posted May 29, 2014 Fair enough on "production" - I think I used the wrong term though in relation to what I meant, which was he is in a better spot to valuably contribute to the team. While he may be 3rd on the depth chart at this point, Boldin is aging and Crabtree is injury prone, and I can see SJ playing in the slot a good deal there. They must have a plan for him, or they wouldn't have taken on his contract and given up a 4th rd pick. They did hurt for depth last year in the passing game when Crabtree and Davis both were injured and I think Harbaugh is desperate to take over the Seahawks in that division, I can see SJ giving Sherman problems as he did when the Bills played Seattle a couple years back. With trades in the NFL I don't ever look at them as one team trying to get rid of a "bad" player, I look at it as players being better fits and more valuable to different systems and divisions. Stevie no longer fit the plan here, he wasn't the current regime's guy, and I think both sides are better off. I can agree with that... but I don't think the addition of Stevie is going to make Harbaugh a lot more reliant on the pass. They have a pretty nice (or at least intriguing) running backs too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Posted May 29, 2014 Share Posted May 29, 2014 Agreed. Just to add to what you've written: I'd also like to see an analysis of poorly thrown passes which were nonetheless caught. Both for Manuel and other QBs. If we're counting the times that receivers make QBs look worse than they should (drops), we should also count the times they make QBs look better than they should (catching poorly thrown balls). WRT that, I like and agree with what Sammy Watkins said, which is: "My job is to catch the ball. I can't control where the quarterback throws it. If my hand touches it, I've got to catch it." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts