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RD1, Pick #4: WR Sammy Watkins - Clemson


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Which rookie receiver will gain the most yards in 2014?

After casting predictions for this year's crop of rookie signal-callers and running backs, it's time to dig into the newbie wide receivers.

 

Considered one of the deepest classes in years, there's plenty to like about Sammy Watkins and his peers. Still, early-career production for pass-catchers is unpredictable, as young wideouts adjust to expanded route trees, deeper playbooks and NFL-level press coverage.

 

Everyone's an optimist after the draft, but I'll be surprised if two of these gentlemen cross the 1,000-yard barrier as rookies. Of the 28 receivers drafted last year, only Keenan Allen checked that box. In the end, rookie wideouts in 2013 accounted for an average of just 246 yards through the air.

 

It's too early to guess career success, but here's my prediction for who piles up the most receiving yards in 2014:

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I'm assuming that guy is knocking Sammy Watkins down because of quarterback play, but he has Mike Evans ahead why? Watkins will be the unquestioned number one. Evans won't be. McCown is getting largely overrated after just one good season. Glennon will reclaim the starting role there quickly.

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I'm assuming that guy is knocking Sammy Watkins down because of quarterback play, but he has Mike Evans ahead why? Watkins will be the unquestioned number one. Evans won't be. McCown is getting largely overrated after just one good season. Glennon will reclaim the starting role there quickly.

who else is in Tampa to give the ball to on offense? ... you had to think about it a second, right?

 

Vincent Jackson will command double coverage, specifically over the top coverage. Evans is going to be getting those 8 yard dink passes and be the same dump guy a lot of times in Tampa.

 

Plus, I really like Glennon. He reminds me of Rivers. Which, well, how the hell does NC State actually produce the best QB's in the league? Rivers, Wilson, Glennon. Also, trivia: The ACC started more QB's in the NFL in 2013 then any other conference. That doesn't take in Thad Lewis and a few other ACC'ers that came in as subs.

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who else is in Tampa to give the ball to on offense? ... you had to think about it a second, right?

 

No. I didn't have to think about it for a second. At all. They have Vincent Jackson and Doug Martin, two of the top player at their position...

 

About your point on Glennon: I absolutely love Glennon and think he'll be a star QB someday given the chance. He'll be the best QB out of his class, again, if given a chance. Hopefully Manuel can have something to say about that.

Edited by SBUffalo
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Johnny Manziel, Khalil Mack rank among instant-impact rookies

Sammy Watkins, WR, Buffalo Bills

 

Instant impact: Ending an epic dry spell.

 

Watkins has all the attributes needed to be a great receiver. He's extremely speedy -- he seems to have two gears: super-fast and super-super-fast -- but he's also strong enough that pads won't slow him down. He has great hands and the kind of catch-and-run ability that reminds you of Hall of Fame receiver Bob Hayes. Watkins is excellent at getting separation from defenders. He's also versatile, able to line up outside or in the slot.

 

As a true freshman at Clemson, Watkins defied convention by racking up 82 catches for 1,219 yards and 12 touchdowns. For a player to have that kind of production at that stage of his career is almost unheard of. Watkins will make Bills quarterback EJ Manuel better, and Buffalo offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett will have some special things ready for the dynamic receiver. Ultimately, I think Watkins has a good shot at helping the Bills end their 14-season playoff drought.

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I saw this in the comments section of this silly article.

Really good points.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/10927729/nfl-sammy-watkins-impact-not-equal-price-buffalo-bills-paid?fb_comment_id=fbc_250436405160260_250960771774490_250960771774490#f12d2aff14

 

Christopher Neyenhouse:

Would the Falcons trade Julio Jones for Brandon Weeden, Owen Marecic, Greg Little, and Phil Taylor? The Browns did! And that's what happens when you trade back from a great receiver like they did in 2010. Talk about getting fleeced. . . .The real question is, why didn't the team whose #1 receiver may be done for the season, and whose career could go the way of Blackmon, jump at the chance to land a franchise receiver?

 

For the second time in four years the Browns may have fleeced themselves.

 

Only time will tell if the trade pays off but looking at the Players the Browns picked in the Julio Jones trade it really doesn't look like Quantity won over Quality. Not to mention the Bills gave up a lot less Quantity in their trade.

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I don't think it's fair to judge draft trades based on what the team acquiring the picks do with them, but based on what the team that traded up would have likely done with those picks.

 

So it'd be better to look at the players picked at or just behind the selections traded away and see what the team needs were at the time. Could the Falcons have addressed the terrible offensive and defensive lines with those picks they traded away? That'd be interesting to see.

 

 

So in a few years if we look back and say "Watkins is fantastic, but man he needs a good QB" and the first rounder next year ends up being at 10 while a QB who stars at the NFL level goes 11-13 then you might say we lost because we missed a chance to address the real need. However, the hope is that the team doesn't have such a glaring need next year.

Edited by SBUffalo
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I don't think it's fair to judge draft trades based on what the team acquiring the picks do with them, but based on what the team that traded up would have likely done with those picks.

 

So it'd be better to look at the players picked at or just behind the selections traded away and see what the team needs were at the time. Could the Falcons have addressed the terrible offensive and defensive lines with those picks they traded away? That'd be interesting to see.

 

It's hard to know what they would have done, because we don't know what their record would have been without the trade. But, would they have been able to address those issues? Absolutely. It came back to bite them last year.

 

I actually think we were in a better spot than Atlanta to trade up overall. Thing is EJ is still a question mark and Matt Ryan was already established there. So, we're just going to have to see how this plays out.

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I don't think it's fair to judge draft trades based on what the team acquiring the picks do with them, but based on what the team that traded up would have likely done with those picks.

 

So it'd be better to look at the players picked at or just behind the selections traded away and see what the team needs were at the time. Could the Falcons have addressed the terrible offensive and defensive lines with those picks they traded away? That'd be interesting to see.

 

 

So in a few years if we look back and say "Watkins is fantastic, but man he needs a good QB" and the first rounder next year ends up being at 10 while a QB who stars at the NFL level goes 11-13 then you might say we lost because we missed a chance to address the real need. However, the hope is that the team doesn't have such a glaring need next year.

Thats fair but we will need to revisit the coulda draft piece in May 2015.

But to Chris' point the Browns did receive Brandon Weeden, Owen Marecic, Greg Little, and Phil Taylor for Julio Jones.

Edited by Why So Serious?
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No, I didn't. But I did watch a lot of them, and I read a lot, and I listen, and I remember. And I strongly believe that if the writer of that article did the same, he would not have come to that conclusion without context. It's very valid to say that he is not likely to gain the YAC on screen passes in the NFL like he did in college.

 

But that seems to be the thesis of the entire argument why his play may not translate, and that is simply flat wrong. That implies that is all he can do, or the major element of his game that does not translate to the pros. But that is not at all the major element of his game. It was in his senior year because, as has been stated a lot here, Sweeney decided to take what was given to him. In fact, Watkins said after he was drafted he didn't even like doing it, he wanted to run the regular routes and looks forward to the Bills so he won't have to run as many screens.

When was Sammy a senior?
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Thats fair but we will need to revisit the coulda draft piece in May 2015.

But to Chris' point the Browns did receive Brandon Weeden, Owen Marecic, Greg Little, and Phil Taylor for Julio Jones.

 

That is true, but here's some cherry-picked players available at those spots (all were drafted pretty close after the Browns' pick):

  • (Phil Taylor) - Phil Taylor, Muhammad Wilkerson, Andy Dalton, Colin Kaepernick
  • (Greg Little) - Randall Cobb, Justin Houston, DeMarco Murray
  • (Owen Marecic) - Julius Thomas, Taiwan Jones/Bilal Powell (both RBs like Marecic, but unlike him, neither of them suck)
  • (Brandon Weeden) - David DeCastro, Dont'a Hightower, Cordy Glenn, Alshon Jeffery, Bobby Wagner, Lavonte David

If the Browns took Cobb instead of Little and Thomas instead of Marecic, they still wouldn't have a QB, but I think they would've easily won that trade. Maybe Thomas is a little unfair because he was such a late pick, and the Manning effect. But even with Jones turning out as good as he had, the Browns definitely could've (and probably should've) won that trade. The problem is that they drafted total zeroes with two of the 3 high picks they got in return.

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That is true, but here's some cherry-picked players available at those spots (all were drafted pretty close after the Browns' pick):

  • (Phil Taylor) - Phil Taylor, Muhammad Wilkerson, Andy Dalton, Colin Kaepernick
  • (Greg Little) - Randall Cobb, Justin Houston, DeMarco Murray
  • (Owen Marecic) - Julius Thomas, Taiwan Jones/Bilal Powell (both RBs like Marecic, but unlike him, neither of them suck)
  • (Brandon Weeden) - David DeCastro, Dont'a Hightower, Cordy Glenn, Alshon Jeffery, Bobby Wagner, Lavonte David

If the Browns took Cobb instead of Little and Thomas instead of Marecic, they still wouldn't have a QB, but I think they would've easily won that trade. Maybe Thomas is a little unfair because he was such a late pick, and the Manning effect. But even with Jones turning out as good as he had, the Browns definitely could've (and probably should've) won that trade. The problem is that they drafted total zeroes with two of the 3 high picks they got in return.

The Cherry Picked draft still doesn't look that good. With that many draft picks it should be an overwhelming landslide in the Browns favor but it isn't.

 

Not to mention the Biggest Problem in the cherry pick draft is that they'd still be Browns which, um, isn't exactly a career boost. They don't even have the D-League vibe that the Bills have. Just a dead end to no career.

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Well the "cherry picked draft" information is more about who the Falcons would've picked. They liked Demarco Murray and likely would've taken him instead of Little. Taylor wouldn't have fit so they would've likely chosen someone else or traded down. Julius Thomas may have been selected as a successor to TG. And maybe one of those o-linemen could've helped them fix their terrible o-line. We'll see on the Bills trade. I'm not against it because it's done and over with and we got a hell of a player out of it.

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