Some observations about potential new ownership

[Rocky Landing]

He's referenced on several occasions about keeping the Bills in Buffalo. Here's his latest statement after Ralph's passing "“We all know they have a lease. We know the terms of (that) lease, and we also know we have to find a long-term solution to keep the Bills there, and that’s what we’ll continue to work to do, but that’s not our priority right now in the next few days.”

I've read those statements as well, but I'm not sure that I trust what comes out of his mouth. They read to me more like vague platitudes designed to keep everyone calm. I don't believe he really cares if the Bills stay in Buffalo. I do know that he wants a team in LA. I would assume that any concrete plans to move the Bills would not be made public until the last, possible moment. It's fine to air speculation. But, imagine how badly ticket prices would fall if everyone knew that the Bills would be gone in seven years.

[Mr. WEO]

I was going by a Forbes article on the subject of team profitability. Here's the link: http://www.forbes.com/nfl-valuations/

 

Saying that "LA hasn't been able to get their stadium situation settled for over 20 years," is little more than snark. I live in Los Angeles (and for the record, would be depressed by the Bils moving here), and I can say that building a new stadium is only a matter of time. There have been several plans floated, and the money and resources are definitely there. A team moving to Los Angeles is almost a certainty. Let's hope it's not the Bills.

 

That's the same article. Go to operating income. Essentially profit.

 

As for LA, not snark, but fact. A few years ago, there were 2 "serious" stadium projects in the works (AEG and that goofball in the City of Industry). Both went belly up without breaking ground. The model of building a stadium on spec is doomed. It will only work if a new owner moving to LA builds his own stadium. The guy who owns the Rams is the only viable candidate.

[Rocky Landing]

That's the same article. Go to operating income. Essentially profit.

 

As for LA, not snark, but fact. A few years ago, there were 2 "serious" stadium projects in the works (AEG and that goofball in the City of Industry). Both went belly up without breaking ground. The model of building a stadium on spec is doomed. It will only work if a new owner moving to LA builds his own stadium. The guy who owns the Rams is the only viable candidate.

First of all, you didn't say "operating income." You said "operating margin." A very different beast. Operating margin is expressed as a ratio. I could literally operate a lemon aid stand with a higher operating margin than the Cowboys (currently, the highest valued team in the league). Be that as it may, I don't follow teams like the 49ers closely enough to know why their operating income this year would be as low as it is. But, I will bet that if you look at the numbers for the operating income of a team like the Cowboys, it would vary greatly from year to year, especially in relation to their operating margin. Operating income is not an indicator of valuation.

 

As for the plans for an LA stadium, neither the Grand Crossing plan, nor the AEG plan are "belly up." The evidence for this is easy to find, but I offer up the following link: http://nfl.si.com/20...es-nfl-stadium/

 

Here's another one that's downright amusing: http://www.losangele...m/location.html

 

Truly, that an NFL team will find its way to Los Angeles is a near certainty. And, any Buffalo fan that doesn't think that the Bills are in jeopardy of being moved to LA is in denial.

Edited April 14, 2014 by Rocky Landing

[Buffalo Barbarian]

Some thoughts:

 

1. Whaley and Marrone must feel a lot of pressure to perform this year. If there is new ownership is in place before the beginning of the 2015 season,

 

I would expect that they will want to hire their own people to run the team, including a new GM particularly if the team does not perform well this year.

 

If Brandon stays or is part of the new ownership team, then this may not be the case. Otherwise, the team's performance this year will have a significant impact on the future prospects of Whaley and Marrone, both with the Bills or with another opportunity in the future.

 

7. If the Bills move to another city, I will stop being a fan of the team.

 

Hope this happens

[Mr. WEO]

First of all, you didn't say "operating income." You said "operating margin." A very different beast. Operating margin is expressed as a ratio. I could literally operate a lemon aid stand with a higher operating margin than the Cowboys (currently, the highest valued team in the league). Be that as it may, I don't follow teams like the 49ers closely enough to know why their operating income this year would be as low as it is. But, I will bet that if you look at the numbers for the operating income of a team like the Cowboys, it would vary greatly from year to year, especially in relation to their operating margin. Operating income is not an indicator of valuation.

 

As for the plans for an LA stadium, neither the Grand Crossing plan, nor the AEG plan are "belly up." The evidence for this is easy to find, but I offer up the following link: http://nfl.si.com/20...es-nfl-stadium/

 

Here's another one that's downright amusing: http://www.losangele...m/location.html

 

Truly, that an NFL team will find its way to Los Angeles is a near certainty. And, any Buffalo fan that doesn't think that the Bills are in jeopardy of being moved to LA is in denial.

 

For the purpose of Forbes's reporting, operating income is as close to margin as they get. Even so, the Bills were ahead of the teams I listed, not those you listed.

 

Also, that SI article simply recaps that the Ed Roski stadium idea came out in 2008 and nothing much has happened since. It also says that the AEG plan came up in 2010. In fact, the evidence Is easy to find, as you say. Simply Google "AEG stadium dead" and the first hit is a Yahoo Sports article.

 

It quotes NFL sources as saying the AEG plan is "essentially dead". Why? As I have said all along, the business plan of building a stadium as a landlord only is doomed.

 

"The numbers just don't work, no matter how you look at the deal," a league source said in February. "It's either too hard for AEG to make money [and pay the debt on the stadium] or too hard for the team. I just can't see a way for it to work."

 

So, the league has given up on this model, which includes Roski's dud of a plan.

 

The Rams owner is the only viable stadium builder in LA.

Edited April 14, 2014 by Mr. WEO

[Rocky Landing]

For the purpose of Forbes's reporting, operating income is as close to margin as they get. Even so, the Bills were ahead of the teams I listed, not those you listed.

 

Also, that SI article simply recaps that the Ed Roski stadium idea came out in 2008 and nothing much has happened since. It also says that the AEG plan came up in 2010. In fact, the evidence Is easy to find, as you say. Simply Google "AEG stadium dead" and the first hit is a Yahoo Sports article.

 

It quotes NFL sources as saying the AEG plan is "essentially dead". Why? As I have said all along, the business plan of building a stadium as a landlord only is doomed.

 

"The numbers just don't work, no matter how you look at the deal," a league source said in February. "It's either too hard for AEG to make money [and pay the debt on the stadium] or too hard for the team. I just can't see a way for it to work."

 

So, the league has given up on this model, which includes Roski's dud of a plan.

 

The Rams owner is the only viable stadium builder in LA.

You're kind of making my point for me regarding operating margin. There are several franchises worth much more than the Bills with lower margins (again, expressed as a ratio). Neither operating margins nor operating income are tied to valuation, and indeed, these figures can vary dramatically from year to year, depending on variable costs, business plans, etc, as well as market trends. I'm not sure what you mean by, "operating income is as close to margin as they get."

 

Regarding Los Angeles, you may be right that "the business plan of building a stadium as a landlord only is doomed." But, that's not really what we're talking about, is it? We're talking about the future owners of the Bills. And, quite possibly, the timing of the lease, and the amount of time it would take for an LA stadium to be built (and, no, the AEG/Farmers Field plan is not dead) could work out perfectly for an investment group to buy the Bills with the intention of moving them to LA. This seems obvious to me. (And, despite his current platitudes regarding keeping the Bills in WNY, I believe Goodell, and the NFL would be on board.) The fact that the Bills- the third lowest valued team- has a decent operating margin, makes them more attractive to such a scheme, not less.

Edited April 14, 2014 by Rocky Landing

[jumbalaya]

The bills will stay if the best deal on the table comes from someone that wants ot keep them. Once gone, football is gone for good. We willhave to hope UB becomes a power.

[oman128]

Yes, I get the distinct impression she cares greatly about the fans in the region and the outpouring of affection from them. The tribute to Mr. Wilson at the field house last week was very indicative of just how much she DOES care.

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

 

Sorry but funerals don't count, everyone is nice at a funeral, nobody goes to funeral and tells you to your face your husband was a jackass its poor form.

 

When Mrs. Wilson gets a call that says the XYZ Group wants to buy the Bills for $1 Billion Dollars do you think she is going to say, well you have to keep it in Buffalo, the New owner says sure ok I will, then he waits for the lease to run out,and see ya the Bills are out of here for Toronto or LA.

Edited April 14, 2014 by oman128

[K-9]

Sorry but funerals don't count, everyone is nice at a funeral, nobody goes to funeral and tells you to your face your husband was a jackass its poor form.

 

When Mrs. Wilson gets a call that says the XYZ Group wants to buy the Bills for $1 Billion Dollars do you think she is going to say, well you have to keep it in Buffalo, the New owner says sure ok I will, then he waits for the lease to run out,and see ya the Bills are out of here for Toronto or LA.

 

1.) It wasn't a funeral.

 

2.) Hearing from several who attended she was in tears as she shook hands with as many people as she could; common folk. I think that means something.

 

3.) We'll see.

 

Now perhaps in your cynical world money trumps all, but that isn't always the case. We don't know what what the trust dictates to Mary Wilson exactly. Like I said, we'll see. In the meantime, I'll choose to be optimistic. It is a choice, after all.

 

GO BILLS!!!

Edited April 14, 2014 by K-9

[Bob Malooga]

Maybe it has been mentioned already here, but if not, it needs to be...

 

I'm pretty sure that none of the current NFL owners were in their current positions when Donald Trump tried to take over, or kill, the NFL way back when. He would absolutely get a lot of support from the owners, if he submitted a bid...he is one hell of a businessman.

[LikeIGiveADarn]

I only clicked on this link because on the front page, it says "Some observations about pot..." Flagrant false advertising...

[SRQ_BillsFan]

7. If the Bills move to another city, I will stop being a fan of the team

football. ***Football will be dead to me***

 

We could try to get the Argo's to move into Rich instead of being forced to what a soccer stadium.

 

Sure it's the CFL, but I agree with others and don't think I can follow the NFL.

 

We'd still get to tailgate.

 

.

[YoloinOhio]

I was listening to the John Murphy show tonight and on the news update they said that according to Mike Schopp, two interested parties have reached out to Thurman Thomas to be a part of their ownership groups and that he is very tight with Mary Wilson. Did anyone listen to Schopp today and hear this/any other detail? I only heard part of his show and they were talking about the Sabres.

[Best Player Available]

I was listening to the John Murphy show tonight and on the news update they said that according to Mike Schopp, two interested parties have reached out to Thurman Thomas to be a part of their ownership groups and that he is very tight with Mary Wilson. Did anyone listen to Schopp today and hear this/any other detail? I only heard part of his show and they were talking about the Sabres.

Thurman is one of the Bills greats, most likely is tight with Mary since him and Ralph were so close. But, isn't he still doing autograph signings for some extra pocket money? I doubt he's broke but his net worth is probably not enough to but maybe a couple percent stake in a huge deal and would leave him broke. From a financial standpoint. Thurman simply isn't IMO a guy who is noted for his financial acumen.

 

having Elway, Magic Johnson, Roger Staubach, post football financial success is one thing being a MOFO is simply not going to cut it.

maybe some group could see him as part of poison pill minority stake owner who if he evened owned enough to haver a voting share, he would always vote no on relocation. I'm also interested in what was said other than those guys passing gas on air.

[machine gun kelly]

I just don't see a publicly funded stadium being built in LA. CA has been broke for the last decade. My money is on St. Louis moving at some point. Just a guess like everyone else.

 

Toronto concerns me more as the Bon Jovi group has a principle investor who is worth at least 2 billion. The NFL doesn't like investor groups, but if one of the principles has that kind of capital, we could be in trouble. They could say they are keeping it in Buffalo, while they build a Toronto stadium, the NFL regionalizes more with the first Canadian team, and they start playing a couple of games in Toronto. After 2020, they move into their new stadium and become the Toronto Bills or even change the last name.

 

That to me seems viable and a nightmare. I'm done with the Bills and can hate Mrs. Wilson just like when you bring up the name Modell in Cleveland.

[Mr. WEO]

You're kind of making my point for me regarding operating margin. There are several franchises worth much more than the Bills with lower margins (again, expressed as a ratio). Neither operating margins nor operating income are tied to valuation, and indeed, these figures can vary dramatically from year to year, depending on variable costs, business plans, etc, as well as market trends. I'm not sure what you mean by, "operating income is as close to margin as they get."

 

Regarding Los Angeles, you may be right that "the business plan of building a stadium as a landlord only is doomed." But, that's not really what we're talking about, is it? We're talking about the future owners of the Bills. And, quite possibly, the timing of the lease, and the amount of time it would take for an LA stadium to be built (and, no, the AEG/Farmers Field plan is not dead) could work out perfectly for an investment group to buy the Bills with the intention of moving them to LA. This seems obvious to me. (And, despite his current platitudes regarding keeping the Bills in WNY, I believe Goodell, and the NFL would be on board.) The fact that the Bills- the third lowest valued team- has a decent operating margin, makes them more attractive to such a scheme, not less.

 

Can you share your new info on the AEG field plan? The NFL says it's dead. The owner of AEG just tried to sell the company 2 months ago, then fired his CEO--and abruptly took the company off the market. Why do you insist it's not a dead plan?

 

As far as I understand, the lease prohibits any plans for moving (like...building a new stadium out of town) until 2020.

[Rocky Landing]

Can you share your new info on the AEG field plan? The NFL says it's dead. The owner of AEG just tried to sell the company 2 months ago, then fired his CEO--and abruptly took the company off the market. Why do you insist it's not a dead plan?

 

As far as I understand, the lease prohibits any plans for moving (like...building a new stadium out of town) until 2020.

I'm not sure how a lease could prevent an investment group from building a stadium in a different state, regardless of its intended purposes. Nor do I see how a lease could dictate the future intentions of an entity renting a space. I certainly haven't read the lease, but does it (or even could it) really dictate that the Bills cannot decide future plans beyond the terms of the lease until the lease is expired? That doesn't make any sense to me.

 

Be that as it may:

This article was actually posted today.

]http://www.ladowntow...19bb2963f4.html

Considering the amount of time that it would take for AEG to bring in an NFL team, Farmer's Field may be a non-starter. A quote from the article: "Though AEG continues to pursue a stadium and a deal with the NFL, city officials recognize that they can no longer rely solely on that vision." Of course, the crux of this article is that the Farmer's Field portion of AEG's contract with the city of LA is due to expire, and the city would like to move on with the rest of it. But, I think that the city of LA is very much on board with the notion of building Farmer's Field.

 

This is AEG's current website: http://www.farmersfield.com

 

The strongest alternative to Farmer's Field is the City of Industry plan called "Grand Crossing." http://www.losangele...ballstadium.com

It's really not as crazy as it sounds. The acreage, logistics, parking, area of SoCal it would serve, and traffic issues all make it a better choice. The one thing that the AEG/Farmer's Field plan has going for it is the gung-ho support of the city of Los Angeles.

 

For the record: I am not predicting that the Bills are going to move to Los Angeles, and I would be very depressed if they did. I think that Both the Rams, and Raiders are more likely outcomes. But, I do think that it is a distinct possibility, and I also think that the timing of the lease agreement (assuming it doesn't contain the poison pill you suggest), and the Bills impending sale (which could easily be two years away) just might increase the odds of it happening.

Edited April 15, 2014 by Rocky Landing

[Rocky Landing]

I just don't see a publicly funded stadium being built in LA. CA has been broke for the last decade. My money is on St. Louis moving at some point. Just a guess like everyone else.

 

Toronto concerns me more as the Bon Jovi group has a principle investor who is worth at least 2 billion. The NFL doesn't like investor groups, but if one of the principles has that kind of capital, we could be in trouble. They could say they are keeping it in Buffalo, while they build a Toronto stadium, the NFL regionalizes more with the first Canadian team, and they start playing a couple of games in Toronto. After 2020, they move into their new stadium and become the Toronto Bills or even change the last name.

 

That to me seems viable and a nightmare. I'm done with the Bills and can hate Mrs. Wilson just like when you bring up the name Modell in Cleveland.

California has just balanced its budget (arguably), and the money for an NFL stadium is already there.

[BillsFanM.D.]

having Elway, Magic Johnson, Roger Staubach, post football financial success is one thing... being a MOFO is simply not going to cut it.

 

 

I have nothing for this thread as it's all guesswork on our part...but that's some funny stuff.

[Mr. WEO]

I'm not sure how a lease could prevent an investment group from building a stadium in a different state, regardless of its intended purposes. Nor do I see how a lease could dictate the future intentions of an entity renting a space. I certainly haven't read the lease, but does it (or even could it) really dictate that the Bills cannot decide future plans beyond the terms of the lease until the lease is expired? That doesn't make any sense to me.

 

Be that as it may:

This article was actually posted today.

]http://www.ladowntow...19bb2963f4.html

Considering the amount of time that it would take for AEG to bring in an NFL team, Farmer's Field may be a non-starter. A quote from the article: "Though AEG continues to pursue a stadium and a deal with the NFL, city officials recognize that they can no longer rely solely on that vision." Of course, the crux of this article is that the Farmer's Field portion of AEG's contract with the city of LA is due to expire, and the city would like to move on with the rest of it. But, I think that the city of LA is very much on board with the notion of building Farmer's Field.

 

This is AEG's current website: http://www.farmersfield.com

 

The strongest alternative to Farmer's Field is the City of Industry plan called "Grand Crossing." http://www.losangele...ballstadium.com

It's really not as crazy as it sounds. The acreage, logistics, parking, area of SoCal it would serve, and traffic issues all make it a better choice. The one thing that the AEG/Farmer's Field plan has going for it is the gung-ho support of the city of Los Angeles.

 

For the record: I am not predicting that the Bills are going to move to Los Angeles, and I would be very depressed if they did. I think that Both the Rams, and Raiders are more likely outcomes. But, I do think that it is a distinct possibility, and I also think that the timing of the lease agreement (assuming it doesn't contain the poison pill you suggest), and the Bills impending sale (which could easily be two years away) just might increase the odds of it happening.

 

Could it?---Jeez, someone started a second thread to rehash this exact topic and it's still on the top half of TSW page 1! Yes itcould.

 

And thanks for supplying more links describing the AEG stadium plan as dead. IN fact, the only thing more dead is the Roski City of industry plan.

 

Stan Kroemke is the ONLY guy with the motive and the means to get his team to LA in a stadium of his own.

 

 

 

California has just balanced its budget (arguably), and the money for an NFL stadium is already there.

 

Not many outside of the Brown's fan club (PBS, The Atlantic, etc) believe that bugdet is sound or balanced. The "balanced" budget deosn't include unfunded civil pensions and health care (combined 400 billion and growing)---oops! And then thorw in the totally wacky high speed rail fetish project that no one wants but has to be built..