Dibs Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 There has been a lot of discussion about Stevie Johnson this season. Many feel that his negative aspects(non-clutch, attitude, character etc) outweigh his positive aspects(separation ability, consistency, veteran etc) and that the Bills should rid themselves of him(by trade or cutting). Others feel the opposite and view him as an asset to the team. As SJ will be earning an average of $8.77m/year over the next 3 seasons(12th highest amongst WRs based upon 2013 figures), I came to wonder whether his influence on the field had a big enough positive effect on the offense to warrant his high dollar figure. Though I know the sample size is limited, I proceeded to compare the offensive production of the team(particularly passing) of the games where SJ started(12 games) to those of the games where he didn't play(4 games). In the 12 SJ games: QB stats: 229-408-2472-11-14 Completion %: 56.1 Passing YPA: 6.1 Passing Yards/game: 206.0 QBR: 68.8 Total yards: 322.7 3rd down %: 31.8 Score: 19.9 pts/game Record 4-8 In the 4 non-SJ games: QB stats: 70-114-901-5-1 Completion %: 61.4 Passing YPA: 7.9 Passing Yards/game: 225.3 QBR: 97.1 Total yards: 354.5 3rd down %: 39.7 Score: 25.0 pts/game Record 2-2 As the stats show, the Bills offense produced far better results without SJ in the game. Looking for other factors I realized that Tuel only played with SJ in the game.....and since Tuel's stats were far below EJ & Thad's I decided to remove his stats. In the SJ games(minus Tuel stats): QB stats: 203-349-2163-10-11 Completion %: 58.2 Passing YPA: 6.2 QBR: 72.8 Though this improved the SJ games, again I found myself looking at numbers that were far better without SJ in the game. As there was 3 of the 4 non-SJ games played by Thad, I thought I'd compare just Thad's 5 games(2 with SJ, 3 without). (There was no point doing this with EJ as he had only 1 game without SJ......which was his best game of the season). Thad with SJ: QB stats: 43-71-436-1-2 Completion %: 60.6 Passing YPA: 6.1 Passing Yards/game: 218.0 QBR: 71.1 Total yards: 283.5 3rd down %: 43.8 Score: 20 pts/game Thad without SJ: QB stats: 50-86-656-3-1 Completion %: 58.1 Passing YPA: 7.6 Passing Yards/game: 218.7 QBR: 89.1 Total yards: 368.3 3rd down %: 38.8 Score: 21.0 pts/game Though obviously the sample size is much smaller, this was closer to what I was expecting to see......but I'd say still an edge to the offence without SJ in the lineup. Finally, I thought I would look at home game performances since 3 of the 4 games played without SJ were at home(and again I removed the Tuel game at KC). In the 4 SJ home games(non Tuel): QB stats: 73-120-823-5-3 Completion %: 60.8 Passing YPA: 6.9 Passing Yards/game: 205.8 QBR: 84.8 Total yards: 369.3 3rd down %: 33.9 Score: 24.8 pts/game In the 3 non-SJ home games: QB stats: 54-85-654-4-1 Completion %: 63.5 Passing YPA: 7.7 Passing Yards/game: 218.0 QBR: 97.9 Total yards: 341.7 3rd down %: 41.8 Score: 26.7 pts/game This is I think the closest of all the comparrisons.....but again there is a slight edge to the non-SJ games. What do I conclude from all of this? As there is only a small sample size and there are a lot of factors that cannot be factored......I don't think any firm conclusion can be drawn. I think the numbers might strongly suggest however that the offence performed just as well(if not better) without it's #1 WR playing. Considering the negatives that SJ brings to the table......and the concept that his pressence on the field may not be worth anywhere near the level of money he will be getting(as the existing offense seem to perform as good or better without him in the game).......I would not be adverse to the concept of the Bills releasing SJ this off-season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobobonators Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 (edited) There has been a lot of discussion about Stevie Johnson this season. Many feel that his negative aspects(non-clutch, attitude, character etc) outweigh his positive aspects(separation ability, consistency, veteran etc) and that the Bills should rid themselves of him(by trade or cutting). Others feel the opposite and view him as an asset to the team. As SJ will be earning an average of $8.77m/year over the next 3 seasons(12th highest amongst WRs based upon 2013 figures), I came to wonder whether his influence on the field had a big enough positive effect on the offense to warrant his high dollar figure. Though I know the sample size is limited, I proceeded to compare the offensive production of the team(particularly passing) of the games where SJ started(12 games) to those of the games where he didn't play(4 games). In the 12 SJ games: QB stats: 229-408-2472-11-14 Completion %: 56.1 Passing YPA: 6.1 Passing Yards/game: 206.0 QBR: 68.8 Total yards: 322.7 3rd down %: 31.8 Score: 19.9 pts/game Record 4-8 In the 4 non-SJ games: QB stats: 70-114-901-5-1 Completion %: 61.4 Passing YPA: 7.9 Passing Yards/game: 225.3 QBR: 97.1 Total yards: 354.5 3rd down %: 39.7 Score: 25.0 pts/game Record 2-2 As the stats show, the Bills offense produced far better results without SJ in the game. Looking for other factors I realized that Tuel only played with SJ in the game.....and since Tuel's stats were far below EJ & Thad's I decided to remove his stats. In the SJ games(minus Tuel stats): QB stats: 203-349-2163-10-11 Completion %: 58.2 Passing YPA: 6.2 QBR: 72.8 Though this improved the SJ games, again I found myself looking at numbers that were far better without SJ in the game. As there was 3 of the 4 non-SJ games played by Thad, I thought I'd compare just Thad's 5 games(2 with SJ, 3 without). (There was no point doing this with EJ as he had only 1 game without SJ......which was his best game of the season). Thad with SJ: QB stats: 43-71-436-1-2 Completion %: 60.6 Passing YPA: 6.1 Passing Yards/game: 218.0 QBR: 71.1 Total yards: 283.5 3rd down %: 43.8 Score: 20 pts/game Thad without SJ: QB stats: 50-86-656-3-1 Completion %: 58.1 Passing YPA: 7.6 Passing Yards/game: 218.7 QBR: 89.1 Total yards: 368.3 3rd down %: 38.8 Score: 21.0 pts/game Though obviously the sample size is much smaller, this was closer to what I was expecting to see......but I'd say still an edge to the offence without SJ in the lineup. Finally, I thought I would look at home game performances since 3 of the 4 games played without SJ were at home(and again I removed the Tuel game at KC). In the 4 SJ home games(non Tuel): QB stats: 73-120-823-5-3 Completion %: 60.8 Passing YPA: 6.9 Passing Yards/game: 205.8 QBR: 84.8 Total yards: 369.3 3rd down %: 33.9 Score: 24.8 pts/game In the 3 non-SJ home games: QB stats: 54-85-654-4-1 Completion %: 63.5 Passing YPA: 7.7 Passing Yards/game: 218.0 QBR: 97.9 Total yards: 341.7 3rd down %: 41.8 Score: 26.7 pts/game This is I think the closest of all the comparrisons.....but again there is a slight edge to the non-SJ games. What do I conclude from all of this? As there is only a small sample size and there are a lot of factors that cannot be factored......I don't think any firm conclusion can be drawn. I think the numbers might strongly suggest however that the offence performed just as well(if not better) without it's #1 WR playing. Considering the negatives that SJ brings to the table......and the concept that his pressence on the field may not be worth anywhere near the level of money he will be getting(as the existing offense seem to perform as good or better without him in the game).......I would not be adverse to the concept of the Bills releasing SJ this off-season. Wow man, looks like you out a lot of work into this. I enjoyed it. I wonder how much of this can be attributed to a QB feeling they need to give someone the ball as opposed to playing free and passing where theyre comfortable. Maybe Ej and stevie just lack chemistry as well. Fitz and SJ were clearly on same page. Thats another factor w young QB's and veteran WR Edited December 31, 2013 by bobobonators Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 There has been a lot of discussion about Stevie Johnson this season. Many feel that his negative aspects(non-clutch, attitude, character etc) outweigh his positive aspects(separation ability, consistency, veteran etc) and that the Bills should rid themselves of him(by trade or cutting). Others feel the opposite and view him as an asset to the team. (...) What do I conclude from all of this? As there is only a small sample size and there are a lot of factors that cannot be factored......I don't think any firm conclusion can be drawn. I think the numbers might strongly suggest however that the offence performed just as well(if not better) without it's #1 WR playing. Considering the negatives that SJ brings to the table......and the concept that his pressence on the field may not be worth anywhere near the level of money he will be getting(as the existing offense seem to perform as good or better without him in the game).......I would not be adverse to the concept of the Bills releasing SJ this off-season. Interesting analysis, Dibs. I think your caveat about "small sample size" and "lot of factors" can't be over-emphasized. Also, we ran a rather pedestrian run-heavy offense this year, anddid not take advantage of Stevie - many plays SJ was open and EJ didn't see him. Still, your analysis backs the "eyeball test" that said the offense didn't look remarkably different when he played. All that said, I would be strongly adverse to the concept of the Bills releasing SJ, just like I would be strongly adverse to the Bills releasing any quality player they have under contract. Such players should not be let go for nothing... they should be traded for value. That's how NE builds a zillion draft picks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mango Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Awesome Work Man ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjt328 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I have no problem with the Bills drafting/signing more WR weapons, and down the line, maybe Stevie will no longer be needed. But at this point, our depth at WR is not good enough to cut any talented players. The coaching staff needs to work with Stevie on focusing during games. Not just give up on him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boyst Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Let me sleep on his with some thoughts and look in to some things. For instance, Lewis finished with passes to 6 different targets Sunday, and that was without much help from Goodwin and Woods, who both had 1 IIRC. I was hoping the two would have contributed more in the finale. Anyway, I hoped to have Lewis distribute the ball more effectively. I'd imgine he has. Also I would like to look at YAC wrt Johnson vs the team, and seperate goodwin and graham. I would bet SJ13's numbers this year match the average starting TE, well the top 12 of them. In past years I imagine they very similar to the topmTEs and don't resemble WRs. Great stuff dids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BADOLBILZ Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 (edited) That is great work. I think part of the problem is that he is the #1 option when he is on the field.......and from the slot his ability to make big plays is limited. He used to be always open.....now he is always open for 6 yards. Moving him to the slot weakened two positons. He should have remained outside and Nelson should have remained as primary slot option. Moving to the slot turned him into an unwilling, red-zone unfriendly version of Nelson. An "on paper" decision that failed to take into account real life factors. Johnsons stats are very similar to those of Nelson in 2011. Stevie 2013 12 games 52 rec 597 yards 3 TD Nelson 2011 16 games 61 rec 658 yards 5 TD Meanwhile, TJ Graham caught 23 passes in 16 games starting on the outside this year? Edited December 31, 2013 by BADOLBEELZ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doug Flutie Band Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 stevie can play - he would just be best used as a 2nd receiver with a big physical guy running the primary routes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
....lybob Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Stevie Johnson was injured and gimping around most of the season and later when he was physically better I have to wonder if he knew his mother was ill and close to death ( that's how it was with my father and it did decrease my concentration at work) - bottom line lets not make too many judgements on SJ based on this season he may not be a top 5, top 10 or even top 15 WR but he's way better than this season indicates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martifal Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Interesting analysis, Dibs. I think your caveat about "small sample size" and "lot of factors" can't be over-emphasized. Also, we ran a rather pedestrian run-heavy offense this year, anddid not take advantage of Stevie - many plays SJ was open and EJ didn't see him. Still, your analysis backs the "eyeball test" that said the offense didn't look remarkably different when he played. All that said, I would be strongly adverse to the concept of the Bills releasing SJ, just like I would be strongly adverse to the Bills releasing any quality player they have under contract. Such players should not be let go for nothing... they should be traded for value. That's how NE builds a zillion draft picks. True people talk about following the Patriots model when building a program, but I don't think anybody emphasizes enough their ability aquire draft picks. In fact I wouldn't mind seeing the Bills trade down in the first round for additional picks, they usually blow that pick anyway why not get something for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thurmal34 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Eye opening stuff Dibs, nice work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave mcbride Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Great post. I know it's impolitic to say this, but since Jerry Sullivan has already waded there I will too: I can't imagine the Bills were too thrilled that he missed the final 1/8 of the season to deal with the funeral. I could be wrong, but this is a tough business in which guys play through the sort of pain that would keep us in bed all day. I don't see him on the team next year, although I'd prefer to keep him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boyst Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Great post. I know it's impolitic to say this, but since Jerry Sullivan has already waded there I will too: I can't imagine the Bills were too thrilled that he missed the final 1/8 of the season to deal with the funeral. I could be wrong, but this is a tough business in which guys play through the sort of pain that would keep us in bed all day. I don't see him on the team next year, although I'd prefer to keep him. jerry Sullivan is a piece of **** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Meanwhile, TJ Graham caught 23 passes in 16 games starting on the outside this year? I'm curious to know how many targets/drops/breakups there were. Those would probably be more comical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigBuff423 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 There has been a lot of discussion about Stevie Johnson this season. Many feel that his negative aspects(non-clutch, attitude, character etc) outweigh his positive aspects(separation ability, consistency, veteran etc) and that the Bills should rid themselves of him(by trade or cutting). Others feel the opposite and view him as an asset to the team. As SJ will be earning an average of $8.77m/year over the next 3 seasons(12th highest amongst WRs based upon 2013 figures), I came to wonder whether his influence on the field had a big enough positive effect on the offense to warrant his high dollar figure. Though I know the sample size is limited, I proceeded to compare the offensive production of the team(particularly passing) of the games where SJ started(12 games) to those of the games where he didn't play(4 games). In the 12 SJ games: QB stats: 229-408-2472-11-14 Completion %: 56.1 Passing YPA: 6.1 Passing Yards/game: 206.0 QBR: 68.8 Total yards: 322.7 3rd down %: 31.8 Score: 19.9 pts/game Record 4-8 In the 4 non-SJ games: QB stats: 70-114-901-5-1 Completion %: 61.4 Passing YPA: 7.9 Passing Yards/game: 225.3 QBR: 97.1 Total yards: 354.5 3rd down %: 39.7 Score: 25.0 pts/game Record 2-2 As the stats show, the Bills offense produced far better results without SJ in the game. Looking for other factors I realized that Tuel only played with SJ in the game.....and since Tuel's stats were far below EJ & Thad's I decided to remove his stats. In the SJ games(minus Tuel stats): QB stats: 203-349-2163-10-11 Completion %: 58.2 Passing YPA: 6.2 QBR: 72.8 Though this improved the SJ games, again I found myself looking at numbers that were far better without SJ in the game. As there was 3 of the 4 non-SJ games played by Thad, I thought I'd compare just Thad's 5 games(2 with SJ, 3 without). (There was no point doing this with EJ as he had only 1 game without SJ......which was his best game of the season). Thad with SJ: QB stats: 43-71-436-1-2 Completion %: 60.6 Passing YPA: 6.1 Passing Yards/game: 218.0 QBR: 71.1 Total yards: 283.5 3rd down %: 43.8 Score: 20 pts/game Thad without SJ: QB stats: 50-86-656-3-1 Completion %: 58.1 Passing YPA: 7.6 Passing Yards/game: 218.7 QBR: 89.1 Total yards: 368.3 3rd down %: 38.8 Score: 21.0 pts/game Though obviously the sample size is much smaller, this was closer to what I was expecting to see......but I'd say still an edge to the offence without SJ in the lineup. Finally, I thought I would look at home game performances since 3 of the 4 games played without SJ were at home(and again I removed the Tuel game at KC). In the 4 SJ home games(non Tuel): QB stats: 73-120-823-5-3 Completion %: 60.8 Passing YPA: 6.9 Passing Yards/game: 205.8 QBR: 84.8 Total yards: 369.3 3rd down %: 33.9 Score: 24.8 pts/game In the 3 non-SJ home games: QB stats: 54-85-654-4-1 Completion %: 63.5 Passing YPA: 7.7 Passing Yards/game: 218.0 QBR: 97.9 Total yards: 341.7 3rd down %: 41.8 Score: 26.7 pts/game This is I think the closest of all the comparrisons.....but again there is a slight edge to the non-SJ games. What do I conclude from all of this? As there is only a small sample size and there are a lot of factors that cannot be factored......I don't think any firm conclusion can be drawn. I think the numbers might strongly suggest however that the offence performed just as well(if not better) without it's #1 WR playing. Considering the negatives that SJ brings to the table......and the concept that his pressence on the field may not be worth anywhere near the level of money he will be getting(as the existing offense seem to perform as good or better without him in the game).......I would not be adverse to the concept of the Bills releasing SJ this off-season. Throughout the season I often wondered or questioned the same thing. And I appreciate the time and effort you put into compiling this information and these stats. I would not be an advocate of simply "releasing" him though, as I think he could still be a valuable piece to the BILLS, but I would absolutely LOVE, LOVE for the BILLS to trade him for anything in the 2nd to 4th round Draft pick range. No one is going to give up a 1st, so that's just off the table, otherwise, if the BILLS traded Lynch for a 4th, I would be all right with a 4th, depending on the team and the pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CodeMonkey Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Great job! There are other factors that could be considered such as how many times SJ13 was targeted, taking other seasons into account etc. But hopefully that is something that the Bills shiny new analytics "dept." is already evaluating! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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