REAL facts of EJ before injury and the QB's that filled in

[Dibs]

You realize that Manuel's QBR is among the worst in the NFL for starting quarterbacks? There are only 4 or 5 guys below him out of 32 teams. I'm not sure how quoting these numbers is proof that EJ was not awful.

 

It sounds like your argument goes like this: Manuel is better than Lewis or Tuel, therefore Manuel is not awful. Unfortunately, I don't need to think back to my logics class to see some flaws in this proof.

 

The stat was for ESPN's Total QBR stat......which Manuel is now 26th at 40.7 for all qualifiers.

 

To put some realistic comparison on it.....here are the 1st/2nd year QB's Total QBRs(qualifiers).

http://espn.go.com/nfl/qbr

 

Rookies

26th EJ Manuel 40.7

27th Mike Glennon 40.5

32nd Geno Smith 30.4

 

2nd year

2nd Nick Foles: 79.2

8th Andrew Luck 65.0

12th Russell Wilson 59.6

22nd RG3 46.1

25th Ryan Tannehill 40.9

34th Brandon Wheedon 24.3

 

 

Stats are just stats.......and one horrible game does not predict the future.

 

Likely EJ won't be the Bills QB of the future......but that would be the situation with any rookie QB.

[vincec]

 

The stat was for ESPN's Total QBR stat......which Manuel is now 26th at 40.7 for all qualifiers.

 

To put some realistic comparison on it.....here are the 1st/2nd year QB's Total QBRs(qualifiers).

http://espn.go.com/nfl/qbr

 

Rookies

26th EJ Manuel 40.7

27th Mike Glennon 40.5

32nd Geno Smith 30.4

 

2nd year

2nd Nick Foles: 79.2

8th Andrew Luck 65.0

12th Russell Wilson 59.6

22nd RG3 46.1

25th Ryan Tannehill 40.9

34th Brandon Wheedon 24.3

 

 

Stats are just stats.......and one horrible game does not predict the future.

 

Likely EJ won't be the Bills QB of the future......but that would be the situation with any rookie QB.

I think this is all besides the point of my post. Manuel has not played well according to the QBR measurement. He is 26th out of 32 in the league. Now he may improve and he may not but you can't say that he has been good so far. Pointing out other QBs that have stunk "for perspective" like Tuel, Lewis, Smith, RGIII or whomever doesn't change the evaluation of Manuel. He has stunk too.

 

If you are trying to say that all rookies stink so it's ok for Manuel to stink too, then that's another argument although I'm not sure I agree with that one either. Some rookies stink and some do not (RGIII, Newton, Wilson, Luck). Again, he may recover but it's no guarantee.

[machine gun kelly]

My issue is they put EJ in one week too early. Marrone in his WR interview even said he was rusty. Why not give him a second week of practice, get his rhythm down and put him in for Jets. Tuel never belongs on the field, but Thad did a decent enough job we could have used him in Pittsburgh. He knows the Steelers and I think would have done a better job.

 

I'm not going to trash EJ for one game. He was rushed back on field. I blame the coaches for that decision, and I like our coaching staff.

[KikO M G]

One of the most encouraging deep scouting reports on EJ before the season was that he was a fast learner and didn't repeat mistakes. I've actually found that to be about as incorrect as you could possibly be. He looked good in his first two games and you saw the talent, and also the room to grow.

 

Here we are after week 10 and he has still never looked better than he did in those first two games. I understand he's had major injuries, but the scouting report also said he was durable...

 

My issue is they put EJ in one week too early. Marrone in his WR interview even said he was rusty. Why not give him a second week of practice, get his rhythm down and put him in for Jets. Tuel never belongs on the field, but Thad did a decent enough job we could have used him in Pittsburgh. He knows the Steelers and I think would have done a better job.

 

I'm not going to trash EJ for one game. He was rushed back on field. I blame the coaches for that decision, and I like our coaching staff.

 

If he's bad again vs. the Jets, will you still blame the coaches?

Edited November 13, 2013 by KikO M G

[Alphadawg7]

I think this is all besides the point of my post. Manuel has not played well according to the QBR measurement. He is 26th out of 32 in the league. Now he may improve and he may not but you can't say that he has been good so far. Pointing out other QBs that have stunk "for perspective" like Tuel, Lewis, Smith, RGIII or whomever doesn't change the evaluation of Manuel. He has stunk too.

 

If you are trying to say that all rookies stink so it's ok for Manuel to stink too, then that's another argument although I'm not sure I agree with that one either. Some rookies stink and some do not (RGIII, Newton, Wilson, Luck). Again, he may recover but it's no guarantee.

 

If you read my original post, the QBR I posted for EJ was his QBR during his games prior to injury. And it was directly addressing the numerous people stating that pre injury he was awful, which he was not. He had only one bad game (Jets) and in that game, the whole team as a unit was terrible.

 

Point was to address the delusional statements of how Tuel and Thad had somehow been playing way better than EJ had been prior to injury. The teams PPG were higher under EJ, his QBR was substantially higher, and he had a better record. How anyone can say EJ was awful prior to injury is baffling, and its incredibly ridiculous to say that Thad and Tuel played better when that is just not the case.

 

Seems the certain people want to focus on this last weeks game only, carefully forgetting the TWO pick sixes Tuel threw to lose us two games we should have won (Cle, a game EJ had us in position to win, but Tuel lost for us and KC where we should have won if not for the other pick six on the 2 yard line Tuel threw) and the 4 turnovers Thad had in one game to lose us another game and his inconsistency.

 

EJ gives us the best opportunity to both win and solidify the QB position. The only way to do that is let the kid play. Anyone who wants to disregard the significance of the missed time by EJ is kidding themselves. EJ needs reps and time before anyone can really get a read on what he can or can't be. Not to mention, Woods didn't play and SJ got hurt again last week...his 2 favorite pass targets...and both are out this Sunday too. So here is a kid who missed time and was missing his favorite targets last week for part or all of the game and again this week. Give the kid a break, he's had some significant obstacles this year.

 

One of the most encouraging deep scouting reports on EJ before the season was that he was a fast learner and didn't repeat mistakes. I've actually found that to be about as incorrect as you could possibly be. He looked good in his first two games and you saw the talent, and also the room to grow.

 

Here we are after week 10 and he has still never looked better than he did in those first two games. I understand he's had major injuries, but the scouting report also said he was durable...

 

 

 

If he's bad again vs. the Jets, will you still blame the coaches?

 

Stop with the week 10 stuff...that infers he's played all that time. He looked good against Cleveland and had us about to go ahead late in the game before he got hurt and Tuel gave the game away.

 

You realize, that was his first game back, he was missing Woods (arguably the guy he has the best rapport with) and also SJ left game early. He is a rookie making his 5th start on the road in a very tough place to play, so tough the Bills haven't won there in decades. Add in he missed half the preseason and you got a rookie who had had little time to build timing with his receivers and get comfortable with NFL defenses yet which only can come from playing experience.

 

His start is still better than MANY top QB's in the NFL right now. To make any conclusions at all on whether he will good or bad is unbelievably foolish. Its like doing a mock draft...its pointless.

[OldTimer1960]

I think this is all besides the point of my post. Manuel has not played well according to the QBR measurement. He is 26th out of 32 in the league. Now he may improve and he may not but you can't say that he has been good so far. Pointing out other QBs that have stunk "for perspective" like Tuel, Lewis, Smith, RGIII or whomever doesn't change the evaluation of Manuel. He has stunk too.

 

If you are trying to say that all rookies stink so it's ok for Manuel to stink too, then that's another argument although I'm not sure I agree with that one either. Some rookies stink and some do not (RGIII, Newton, Wilson, Luck). Again, he may recover but it's no guarantee.

 

How about these two stat lines from last week for two far more experienced QBs whom everyone would salivate over having:

 

1 TD, 3 INTs, 1 Fumble Lost, 9 8 total points scored by offense - Andrew Luck ((has started 26 games, EJ what 5?)

11-22 91 total yards, team offensive output 9 points in loss - Colin Kaepernick (I think this is his 3rd year and he's started something like 18 games right?)

 

Not saying EJ is or is not as good as either of these guys. I AM saying that young QBs have their ups and downs. EJ has started very few games, missed half the preseason and has for the most part rookie WRs. I don't know if he will be great, good, mediocre or horrible, but nobody will have enough information for a year or two to know that.

[Kemp]

Great cherrypicking of stats in this thread.

 

Ooh, he is better than Tuel.

 

Russell Wilson had a bad start. Lots have bad starts and continue that way.

 

Manuel may become legit. So far, he isn't.

[Dibs]

I think this is all besides the point of my post. Manuel has not played well according to the QBR measurement. He is 26th out of 32 in the league. Now he may improve and he may not but you can't say that he has been good so far. Pointing out other QBs that have stunk "for perspective" like Tuel, Lewis, Smith, RGIII or whomever doesn't change the evaluation of Manuel. He has stunk too.

 

If you are trying to say that all rookies stink so it's ok for Manuel to stink too, then that's another argument although I'm not sure I agree with that one either. Some rookies stink and some do not (RGIII, Newton, Wilson, Luck). Again, he may recover but it's no guarantee.

 

Though not exactly as you put it, yes......it is OK for Manuel to stink at this point. Very few rookie(young) QBs have legitimate non-stinky stats. Not all of those that do become great QBs......and some that don't become great QBs.

 

All I was intending to achieve with my post was to highlight that to bluntly point out that his stats stink(in relation to legitimate QB play) is doing a disservice.......in the same way that bluntly pointing out that he stinks less than other QB's rookie years(either stars or scrubs) is also a disservice to the situation at hand.

 

From what I can tell we basically agree. EJ's stats cant predict his future......and though there is a chance that he pulls it all together and becomes a legitimate QB, the odds are against him(as they are with every QB drafted regardless of draft pick).

 

 

I'm still hoping though......and will be rooting for him this Sunday.

[vincec]

How about these two stat lines from last week for two far more experienced QBs whom everyone would salivate over having:

 

1 TD, 3 INTs, 1 Fumble Lost, 9 8 total points scored by offense - Andrew Luck ((has started 26 games, EJ what 5?)

11-22 91 total yards, team offensive output 9 points in loss - Colin Kaepernick (I think this is his 3rd year and he's started something like 18 games right?)

 

Not saying EJ is or is not as good as either of these guys. I AM saying that young QBs have their ups and downs. EJ has started very few games, missed half the preseason and has for the most part rookie WRs. I don't know if he will be great, good, mediocre or horrible, but nobody will have enough information for a year or two to know that.

As you say yourself, you can't compare Manuel with Luck or Kaepernick because they have accomplished much more and their bad games at this point can be written off as anomalies. Not so with Manuel.

 

You also say that young QBs have their ups and downs which I agree with, but I want to see a few more "ups" from Manuel to make me confident in his future. He really hasn't played a game yet that makes you say "wow, this guy can really be good". Maybe the last drive vs Carolina was the closest, but it was really just the one drive in that game.

[folz]

When I was young, QBs came into the league and sat for 2 or 3 years before they ever saw the field (except for rare occasions).

I know it's a different league now, but I just don't understand people's impatience with rookies of any position. A rookie comes in

and if he's not a pro bowler by mid-season of his rookie year, fans now are ready to label him a bust and get rid of him.

 

For every Andrew Luck or Kiko Alonso, who play well right off the bat, there are dozens of guys who don't play well or don't

see the field their rookie year, but eventually go on to have productive careers. Some guys need more time, especially in

positions like OL or QB where there is a lot to learn and get acclimated to.

 

Yes, EJ looked bad after coming back from the injury, but what are you people expecting? The kid has played a total of 6 games in between

two knee injuries. I don't know if he's our QB of the future or not yet, but to write him off already is just stupidity.

[RuntheDamnBall]

No EJ just isn't that good.

 

Why in the world hold him back and tell the other tow to rip it? doesn't make sense.

 

that's fine, who do you like.

Landry Jones is pretty great.

[Dibs]

When I was young, QBs came into the league and sat for 2 or 3 years before they ever saw the field (except for rare occasions).

I know it's a different league now, but I just don't understand people's impatience with rookies of any position. A rookie comes in

and if he's not a pro bowler by mid-season of his rookie year, fans now are ready to label him a bust and get rid of him.

 

For every Andrew Luck or Kiko Alonso, who play well right off the bat, there are dozens of guys who don't play well or don't

see the field their rookie year, but eventually go on to have productive careers. Some guys need more time, especially in

positions like OL or QB where there is a lot to learn and get acclimated to.

 

Yes, EJ looked bad after coming back from the injury, but what are you people expecting? The kid has played a total of 6 games in between

two knee injuries. I don't know if he's our QB of the future or not yet, but to write him off already is just stupidity.

 

I feel that people's impatience has a lot to do with our recent history.

We have had a long stretch of sub-mediocrity(one where our best player on the field was a punter)......and bad drafting put on top of that. Year after year we have had virtually no star players, our rookies perform like rookies & then develop into at best good players(usually busting or mediocre players).

 

I tend to think that when a team has a good handful of good(or better) players.....and there is an occasional rookie sensation(like Kiko).....that fan expectations would naturally become less as the need for instant performance by said rookies becomes less.

 

I am hopeful that we are finally getting to that position. For the first time in a very long time we have quite a number of good(or better) players.....partly produced by relatively solid drafting the last few years. If EJ pans out(or any other QB), I think the somewhat irrational expectations from fans for instant production from young players will become a great deal less.