ICanSleepWhenI'mDead Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 Today is the second time this year that I've been mystified about why the Bills did not instruct their kick-off return man to bring the ball out of the end zone just before the half. New Orleans kicked off with less than a minute to go before halftime, and only had one time out left. Ordinarily you may not want the return man to bring it out from near the back of the end zone, but that's because most times he may not reach the 20 before being tackled. But if you already know that all you will do is run out the clock when you start at the 20, why not tell the returner to bring EVERYTHING out. If he gets tackled at even the 5 or 10 yard line, there's no harm done, because you can kneel down to run the clock out from there just like you could at the 20. But with a dynamic returner, you might get a big return that gets you into position for a long FG or even a touchdown. Especially today, when Goodwin was the return man on the play. Even if he has to jump to catch the ball before it sails over the end line, tell him to bring it out! Taking a touchback in that situation just seems dumb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CJallDAY Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 I like it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DefenseWinzChampionshipz Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 I wouldn't get too upset. It's not like our special teams coach will have drawn out a good design to run out anyway. I have 0 hope in special teams this year. I stopped looking for Goodwin to return it. This year is all about the D and EJ getting back in the lineup so he can "grow". That's the story this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowery4 Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 Totally agree with you. Aggressive play is sometimes, situationally (hmm is that a word?), lacking with this staff. I was yelling at my screen for him to take it out too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BUNCH OF MULARKEY Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 (edited) Probably because special teams are so bad on this team, the less chances they get to screw something up, the better. The worst has to be the punt return team. I used to get excited when leodis would return punts. This year he has had no room at all. Never. Do they try to hold up the gunners at all? The punt team is like night and day with Moorman punting. Kudos to that move. Edited October 28, 2013 by BUNCH OF MULARKEY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ganesh Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 Just another poor decision from our Special Teams Coordinator. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webster Guy Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 This is a good point, especially on the road as heavy underdogs you would think having your return man take a shot at breaking one. Marrone doesnt coach scared like Jauron or Mularkey but he def overlooks risk/ reward scenarios like that sometimes. He doesnt have a strong special teams coach or offensive coordinator to help him through his rookie learning curve the way Pettine is doing for him on D. So I'm not surprised he missed that opportunity for a free return at the end of the 1st half. To back your point even further, if nothing else Goodwin and our special teams need real game reps to improve, so when the time comes that we actually return kickoffs in close games we are ready for the challenge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mickey Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 To decide this, I would have to know the percentage of scoring touchdowns on kickoffs versus fumbling them given that these seem to me to be the only two potential outcomes that matter given the time situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 To decide this, I would have to know the percentage of scoring touchdowns on kickoffs versus fumbling them given that these seem to me to be the only two potential outcomes that matter given the time situation. With a young returner it can be risky. Even if you tell then to just go down without a fight to lower the risk - sometimes you see them picked off leading off first base for no apparent reason (to steal one from the baseball game) I'd like to see them take a shot there but get not possibly. How much time on the clock again? If they got to the 40 or so one quick shot at fg possible there as another outcome? Or a Hail Mary type play? I thought there was a little bit of time but not a ton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mickey Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 Okay, out of just over 600 kickoff returns, there have been 16 of them fumbled this year and only 3 returned for touchdowns. That means that a return attempt at the end of the half had just under a 3% chance (.0266) of resulting in a fumble and less than a 1% chance (.005) of resulting in a touchdown. It was over 5 times more likely that you would fumble the ball than score a touchdown. I believe these are fumbles lost and do not include fumbles recovered by the return team. It seems to me then that Marrone's decision not attempt a return was based on sound judgment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webster Guy Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 Okay, out of just over 600 kickoff returns, there have been 16 of them fumbled this year and only 3 returned for touchdowns. That means that a return attempt at the end of the half had just under a 3% chance (.0266) of resulting in a fumble and less than a 1% chance (.005) of resulting in a touchdown. It was over 5 times more likely that you would fumble the ball than score a touchdown. I believe these are fumbles lost and do not include fumbles recovered by the return team. It seems to me then that Marrone's decision not attempt a return was based on sound judgment. What about returns to get u within field goal range? Or to get you real game experience and film on your blocking and return execution? 3% of all pass plays are intercepted, does that mean we should run all the time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miyagi-Do Karate Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 If I recall, wasn't Goodwin backpeddaling and basically like 2 inches from the very backline? I don't think it was returnable under those circumstances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 If I recall, wasn't Goodwin backpeddaling and basically like 2 inches from the very backline? I don't think it was returnable under those circumstances. moorested was putting them through the uprights, so id assume that - but i couldnt tell you on that specific kick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mickey Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 What about returns to get u within field goal range? Or to get you real game experience and film on your blocking and return execution? 3% of all pass plays are intercepted, does that mean we should run all the time? Ummm.....what is the percent of all run plays that result in fumbles? The vast majority of plays have results that don't involve touchdowns or turnovers. This was a situation where there wasn't enough time to do anything but score or fumble. The poster who started the thread's entire point was that since it was the last play of the half, he didn't think there was any downside to attempting a return. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Hindsight Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 And if Goodwin fumbled it and the Saints scored we'd be cursing them out for telling him to take it out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mickey Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 If I recall, wasn't Goodwin backpeddaling and basically like 2 inches from the very backline? I don't think it was returnable under those circumstances. I just watched nfl rewind of the play, you are right though I would say it was even less than two inches, I don't see how Goodwin could have even caught it without standing out of bounds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRH Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 Consider too that when you ask a KR to bring it out of the end zone with that little time left, you are really asking him to either score or at least to break off a huge run. In order to do that, a young returner might take more chances with the ball, might try to cut back upfield rather than go out of of bounds, etc., all of which increase the chances that he might fumble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Caveman Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 What about returns to get u within field goal range? Or to get you real game experience and film on your blocking and return execution? 3% of all pass plays are intercepted, does that mean we should run all the time? No, because ~60% are completed passes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tcali Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 Today is the second time this year that I've been mystified about why the Bills did not instruct their kick-off return man to bring the ball out of the end zone just before the half. New Orleans kicked off with less than a minute to go before halftime, and only had one time out left. Ordinarily you may not want the return man to bring it out from near the back of the end zone, but that's because most times he may not reach the 20 before being tackled. But if you already know that all you will do is run out the clock when you start at the 20, why not tell the returner to bring EVERYTHING out. If he gets tackled at even the 5 or 10 yard line, there's no harm done, because you can kneel down to run the clock out from there just like you could at the 20. But with a dynamic returner, you might get a big return that gets you into position for a long FG or even a touchdown. Especially today, when Goodwin was the return man on the play. Even if he has to jump to catch the ball before it sails over the end line, tell him to bring it out! Taking a touchback in that situation just seems dumb. we decided to take a jauron to end the half Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICanSleepWhenI'mDead Posted October 29, 2013 Author Share Posted October 29, 2013 (edited) Okay, out of just over 600 kickoff returns, there have been 16 of them fumbled this year and only 3 returned for touchdowns. That means that a return attempt at the end of the half had just under a 3% chance (.0266) of resulting in a fumble and less than a 1% chance (.005) of resulting in a touchdown. It was over 5 times more likely that you would fumble the ball than score a touchdown. I believe these are fumbles lost and do not include fumbles recovered by the return team. It seems to me then that Marrone's decision not attempt a return was based on sound judgment. I get that Marrone was being conservative, and there are logical reasons for playing it that way to avoid a possible turnover deep in our own territory. The statistics are helpful, but don't tell the whole story here. At the time we had just gone down by 11 points (21-10), and the Saints were going to get the ball to start the second half. Marrone has gotta figure that with the Saints' fairly high-powered offense, we aren't gonna shut 'em out in the second half. And using those statistics assumes Goodwin's ability to score a TD (or get in or near FG range as Webster Guy noted) is the same as the average NFL returner, and that his likelihood for fumbling is also the same as the average NFL returner. I think that's a faulty assumption. We don't have a big sample size to look at, but didn't Goodwin return a kickoff for a TD in preseason? I haven't looked at his specific numbers, but if he already has a return TD (admittedly in preseason) and has never fumbled kickoff return, why aren't those stats more predictive than NFL-wide averages? Based on his speed, slim body type, and limited game action, I would expect him to have a much greater TD % than the average returner and about the same fumble % (slim body type offset by demonstrated toughness despite injury concerns). I just don't think that down 11 points to a high-powered offense that gets the ball to start the second half you should be that conservative. Per NFL.com Saints kicked the extra point with 30 seconds left in the half - - I don't recall how many timeouts we had left, but I don't think we were out of them (could be wrong). And if Marrone's main concern was fumbling, why did he call a running play to run out the clock instead of taking a kneel-down? I have to wonder if he really thought things through as opposed to "business as usual," despite the exact situation he faced. Edited October 29, 2013 by ICanSleepWhenI'mDead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts