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A Glimmer of Hope, the Bills Still not committed to keeping Fitz on th


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I don't think you are understanding the other side of the argument. Keeping Fitz for this year, seriously effects cap space next year AND this year. Which would limit where the Bills can spend money(on the QB position and other areas). Why keep someone for a 17 million cap hit over 2 years if at this point there "is no better option"? Maybe there are equal options, that wouldn't effect cap space down the line? TJax is certainly could be equal to Fitz. Hell even a rookie could be equal to Fitz. Equal being 6 win seasons....

 

Oh, I get both sides of the argument. Yeah, everything is in play. However, let's talk "REALITY", not "PIE IN THE SKY". The big "glitch" here is cutting him before they have a better option is essentially cap neutral, cut him now and they're out a starting QB and they they take the same cap hit as if they keep him this year. Mind you, there are two Bills FA players (Byrd and Levitre) that they'd like to bring back, plus they will need a bonafide TE, cuz Chandler ain't gonna be back before at least mid season or beyond.

Fitz will definitely be gone at some point, whether he takes a cut or not. If the Bills want to soften the blow on the cap, they can cut him in June when it rolls to the next cap year. That will save them around $4.5m on the 2013 cap (his salary for 2013 that they wouldn't have to pay). The cap hit for 2014 would be $4m with him gone.

How this is likely to play out is one of two ways...

1) Fitz stays on for 2013 and then is let go.

2) Between March 12 and June 15, Bills seek out a veteran QB that is an upgrade over Fitz with a better arm, that can be a caretaker for a year, possibly two, that will work for $5m. If and when they do that, Fitz will be cut in June.

3) They cut Fitz on June 15 and ride the rookie draft pick. Better have the oline solidified though with 9 guys deep that can actually play because if it starts falling apart, the rookie QB will follow.

Personally, I see option 1 as reality, possibly, option 3. I just don't see any QB out there in FA that anyone can say is a clear upgrade over Fitz. Any such argument is speculation and that includes Alex Smith. Fitz ranks around #20 of 32 NFL starters. So, folks have to come to the reality there just isn't a better option out there at qb right now. Yeah, Bills made a humongous mistake in making the deal with Fitz and painted themselves in a corner in the process. They are gonna pay for it one way or the other.

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Oh, I get both sides of the argument. Yeah, everything is in play. However, let's talk "REALITY", not "PIE IN THE SKY". The big "glitch" here is cutting him before they have a better option is essentially cap neutral, cut him now and they're out a starting QB and they they take the same cap hit as if they keep him this year. Mind you, there are two Bills FA players (Byrd and Levitre) that they'd like to bring back, plus they will need a bonafide TE, cuz Chandler ain't gonna be back before at least mid season or beyond.

Fitz will definitely be gone at some point, whether he takes a cut or not. If the Bills want to soften the blow on the cap, they can cut him in June when it rolls to the next cap year. That will save them around $4.5m on the 2013 cap (his salary for 2013 that they wouldn't have to pay). The cap hit for 2014 would be $4m with him gone.

How this is likely to play out is one of two ways...

1) Fitz stays on for 2013 and then is let go.

2) Between March 12 and June 15, Bills seek out a veteran QB that is an upgrade over Fitz with a better arm, that can be a caretaker for a year, possibly two, that will work for $5m. If and when they do that, Fitz will be cut in June.

3) They cut Fitz on June 15 and ride the rookie draft pick. Better have the oline solidified though with 9 guys deep that can actually play because if it starts falling apart, the rookie QB will follow.

Personally, I see option 1 as reality, possibly, option 3. I just don't see any QB out there in FA that anyone can say is a clear upgrade over Fitz. Any such argument is speculation and that includes Alex Smith. Fitz ranks around #20 of 32 NFL starters. So, folks have to come to the reality there just isn't a better option out there at qb right now. Yeah, Bills made a humongous mistake in making the deal with Fitz and painted themselves in a corner in the process. They are gonna pay for it one way or the other.

Giving him a big roster bonus and then cutting him makes no fiscal sense to me.
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Oh, I get both sides of the argument. Yeah, everything is in play. However, let's talk "REALITY", not "PIE IN THE SKY". The big "glitch" here is cutting him before they have a better option is essentially cap neutral, cut him now and they're out a starting QB and they they take the same cap hit as if they keep him this year. Mind you, there are two Bills FA players (Byrd and Levitre) that they'd like to bring back, plus they will need a bonafide TE, cuz Chandler ain't gonna be back before at least mid season or beyond.

Fitz will definitely be gone at some point, whether he takes a cut or not. If the Bills want to soften the blow on the cap, they can cut him in June when it rolls to the next cap year. That will save them around $4.5m on the 2013 cap (his salary for 2013 that they wouldn't have to pay). The cap hit for 2014 would be $4m with him gone.

How this is likely to play out is one of two ways...

1) Fitz stays on for 2013 and then is let go.

2) Between March 12 and June 15, Bills seek out a veteran QB that is an upgrade over Fitz with a better arm, that can be a caretaker for a year, possibly two, that will work for $5m. If and when they do that, Fitz will be cut in June.

3) They cut Fitz on June 15 and ride the rookie draft pick. Better have the oline solidified though with 9 guys deep that can actually play because if it starts falling apart, the rookie QB will follow.

Personally, I see option 1 as reality, possibly, option 3. I just don't see any QB out there in FA that anyone can say is a clear upgrade over Fitz. Any such argument is speculation and that includes Alex Smith. Fitz ranks around #20 of 32 NFL starters. So, folks have to come to the reality there just isn't a better option out there at qb right now. Yeah, Bills made a humongous mistake in making the deal with Fitz and painted themselves in a corner in the process. They are gonna pay for it one way or the other.

 

Not to cherry pick from your whole post...But Alex Smith is definitely a clear upgrade over Fitz purely because he demonstrated that there is an NFL Offense suited to his abilities...Oh...And the fact that Smith has thrown only 32 INT's in his last 48 games compared to Fitz's 64 INT's in his last 55 games...Smith is a better athlete, a better scrambler...Smith is no Matt Stafford, but he does have a better arm than Fitz...

 

I'm not even saying Smith is all that...But clearly better than Fitz? Yes he is... B-)

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No, I think if he gets cut it will be in the next few weeks before they have to pay him his roster bonus which is about half of what he would make this year.

 

I don't think that's the arithmetic the Bills are looking at when it comes to QB. They want the best man they can field at the job, and they won't know who that is until after FA and the draft.

It is also worth considering that a quality backup QB is a valuable commodity, and (strange as the concept is to some) Fitz probably has trade value especially if he is willing to restructure.

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I don't think that's the arithmetic the Bills are looking at when it comes to QB. They want the best man they can field at the job, and they won't know who that is until after FA and the draft.

It is also worth considering that a quality backup QB is a valuable commodity, and (strange as the concept is to some) Fitz probably has trade value especially if he is willing to restructure.

 

why wouldnt he just force them to cut him and choose his own destination at that point?

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The non-committal responses by leadership today tell me that they are going to dump Fitz. He did not show the ability to win in this league. Nix is eating crow for that contract extension. Money is money. If somebody has to hand that guy $3 million dollars in March rather than having him count against the cap.....do you think they'll give him the money, or take the cap hit? I wouldn't pay him another nickel.

 

Cap money is one thing. Real money is another. Does anybody think it makes sense to give $3 million bucks to a guy that you don't want to keep? Remember cash to cap.

 

New regime. Get somebody else in there who can win 6 or 7 games. I'm done with Fitz. I like him too.

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Question for those in the know: If Fitz gets cut & we take the cap hit this year, the cap hit will be about $7 mil more than cash paid out. Would we be able to carry that $7 mil over next year?

 

nope - dead money is from money you really spent but havent properly counted against the cap otherwise

Edited by NoSaint
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nope - dead money is from money you really spent but havent properly counted against the cap otherwise

Related question: I understand that the max value of an incentive laden contract goes against the cap for a given year. If a player has a $5 mil contract, but doesn't hit his escalators and only sees $2 mil, does the other $3 mil carry over to next season?

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How can he do that (force them to cut him)?

 

Refuse a pay cut, potentially?

 

I was framing that in the pay cut or be cut discussion

 

If we're discussing restructure for a trade wouldn't he just decline the restructure then go where he wants?

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...If the Bills want to soften the blow on the cap, they can cut him in June when it rolls to the next cap year. That will save them around $4.5m on the 2013 cap (his salary for 2013 that they wouldn't have to pay). The cap hit for 2014 would be $4m with him gone....

 

 

This part is incorrect. He would still have a 7M cap hit in 2014. Cutting him in June, or keeping him on the roster for the entire 2013 season and then cutting him will have the same effect on the 2014 cap.

 

Cutting him in June is the middle ground proposition....

 

Cutting him now:

2013: 10m cap hit

2014: No cost.

 

TOTAL: 10m cap hit

 

Cutting him in June:

2013: 6.2m cap hit, 3.2m cash cost

2014: 7m cap hit

 

TOTAL: 13.2m cap hit, 3.2m cash cost

 

Cutting him after 2013 season:

2013: 10.45m cap hit, 7.45m cash cost

2014: 7m cap hit

 

TOTAL: 17.45m cap hit, 7.45m cash cost

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I know they can do worse, but I'm not watching Fitz.

Even if it's a 7th Rd. rookie, I can at least fool myself into thinking he might get better.

This sound great in February. But if this 7th round rookie sucks worse than Fitz you'll be wailing and gnashing your teeth with the rest of us.

Edited by reddogblitz
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I think the FO is going to wait until after the free agent period is over to see what the cap looks like for this and next year. NO WAY he re-structures his deal, why would he? He has mega money coming his way if he doesn't, pain and simple Fitz is going to do what we all would do, keep the money.

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I think the FO is going to wait until after the free agent period is over to see what the cap looks like for this and next year. NO WAY he re-structures his deal, why would he? He has mega money coming his way if he doesn't, pain and simple Fitz is going to do what we all would do, keep the money.

He'd love a restructure since it would give him more guaranteed money. What he might not want is a pay cut, which will give him a lower base salary, unless he feels that his lower salary with the Bills is still more than he'd get on the open market (which is almost assuredly the case). Fitz is scheduled to make $4.25M this year in base salary and gets a $3M roster bonus on 3/13. The Bills will likely come to him and say "we want to lower your base salary to $1.25M and we'll still pay you the roster bonus. That's still $4.25M he'd make this year, versus at-best half of that on the market.

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This sound great in February. But if this 7th round rookie sucks worse than Fitz you'll be wailing and gnashing your teeth with the rest of us.

I won't be happy, but I won't be calling for Fitz!

 

I refuse to watch any more Fitz. I didn't watch ANY games after that Tennesee debacle. 30 years as fan, never missed a game I could watch.

 

As I said somewhere else, they can lose with anyone.

 

Plus, if it's a 7th round rookie that blows, I know they won't hesitate to replace him!! (or give him a giant contract)

Edited by Marauder'sMicro
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