Dr. Trooth Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 We all pretty much agree that Fitz "sucketh". I get that and I'm not going to argue that. However, I'm looking at this purely from a realistic perspective. We all know Fitz is due $3M soon. And, there seems to be a lot of "wallers", prognosticators, and so-called media experts that believe Fitz will be cut soon. I don't buy it one bit and here's why. The Bills gain a minute cap benefit in 2013 by cutting Fitz now... it's essentially a near wash on the cap. He counts $10M against the cap if he's cut and 10.45M if the Bills keep him in 2013. By cutting Fitz now, it would leave the Bills with zero (0) QBs on the roster (I apologize to those of you that are offended by me not regarding Brad Smith as a QB, but stay tough and you'll get over it). Does anyone really believe the Bills would leave themselves that vulnerable at QB given their situation. I mean, really, do think that having no QBs on their roster would not be a clear advantage to any (yes, any) free agent QB or team that wanted to move/trade a QB to the Bills. Do you really believe the Bills would give away that kind of leverage? Really? The other part of the reality is that it is well publicized the Bills will be drafting a QB in Rd. 1-3. If it turns out to be in the 3rd, do you believe the kid is gonna be ready. Even if it is Rd. 1 or two, do you believe the kid is gonna be ready now? Even if the Bills get their guy at #8, the best odds are about a 50/50 chance he'd start day one... and that's if he doesn't hold out or get hurt in training camp (remember JP collision with Troy Vincent in training camp ??). Who steps in if that happens? Like it or not, the more reasonable approach and probability is that the Bills will keep Fitz for 2013. They know what they have and they "Billieve" they can milk it for one season with him. You may recall, his new OC was Fitz QB coach for his 4 starts at the end of the 09 season, so, there is a history, and who knows, there may be some level of comfort for both guys. I foresee the coaching staff starting Fitz to begin with regardless of who they draft and when. I also believe a much greater emphasis will be placed on the running game and bringing in a big speed receiver and a couple of tight ends (ya... ones that can get open and catch and ones that they will actually throw to). Those are clear needs regardless of who the QB is. Plus, a defense that does not put the QB in crap situations will be a huge game changer and also take some heat off Fitz. The 2012 Bills defense was one of the worst in its history. Hell, if the defense improves to just 14th in the league and more emphasis on the run with Spiller, and the WR/TE additions, that's good for at least 3 more W's if Fitz is driving the car. I can also see the Bills bringing in a journeyman QB for some semblance of insurance. Perhaps a Seneca Wallace or David Garrard... or someone of that ilk that will accept their role and salary. I would be stunned if the Bills cut Fitz at this juncture and if it doesn't go down somewhat this way for 2013 and the coaching staff then gauges Fitz's effectiveness in deciding if/when to send him to the bench. 2014 will be a different story. Fitz may either have to take a pay cut or be cut loose after 2013. But, I just can't believe the Bills would leave themselves so vulnerable at QB, and with a new staff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
todzilla Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I agree with some of this. I too think they'll keep Fitz (no real advantage to releasing him), but I also feel they will go after someone like Alex Smith or Matt Flynn, plus draft a QB and let them all go for the starting job, similar to how Seattle did it last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bangarang Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Fitz won't be cut for the simple fact that we have nobody to replace him and you can't go into the draft of free agency expecting to get the guy you like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JPS Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Cap money and real money are 2 different things. There is NO way Buffalo pays Fitz a $3m roster bonus on March 1. No way. They save at least $3m by cutting him. The Cap is just an accounting number, but 3 m is 3 m. See ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pirate Angel Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 0 QBs on the roster may be better than having 1 Ryan Fitzpatrick. If you have 0 Qbs you can add three and have 3 chances on improving....If you have 1 Ryan Fitzpatrick you have 1 bad qb and 2 chances and finding a replacement. Sorry but keeping Fitz is just prolonging mediocrity, at least a season of being completely awful allows us a top 5 pick. CJ is our best offensive weapon and Fitz has absolutely no ability towards providing a down field threat and keeping defenses being honest. Lets not forget that we have a new coaching staff that is might to want there QB to be able to be able to make NFL caliber passes, which requires arm strength and accuracy. Chan was willing to adjust his offense to his QB's handicaps which is a big reason he is no longer coaching. Fitz is a career backup. he's smart and can learn an offense without the majority of repetitions, he can finish a game and beat bad teams for you. He is awful in the clutch and cannot win games for your team, which is what you look for in a QB. No team is going to keep a backup with that contract. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Cap money and real money are 2 different things. There is NO way Buffalo pays Fitz a $3m roster bonus on March 1. No way. They save at least $3m by cutting him. The Cap is just an accounting number, but 3 m is 3 m. See ya. Plus $4.25M in salary. He's a goner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JPS Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Plus $4.25M in salary. He's a goner. Thanks. Forgot about that. Yep. Goner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Hindsight Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I'd be shocked if hes cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I'd cut him and pick up a guy like Matt Moore, while grooming a rookie QB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaattMaann Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Plus $4.25M in salary. He's a goner. you guys forgot Brandon is running the show now and money is not an issue : ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JPS Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I'd be shocked if hes cut. I'd be shocked if they pay him $7 million. That's cash money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CardinalScotts Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Fitz won't be cut for the simple fact that we have nobody to replace him and you can't go into the draft of free agency expecting to get the guy you like. Can EVERYONE read the post above - so dont ask how is he still here please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr. Trooth Posted January 25, 2013 Author Share Posted January 25, 2013 I agree with some of this. I too think they'll keep Fitz (no real advantage to releasing him), but I also feel they will go after someone like Alex Smith or Matt Flynn, plus draft a QB and let them all go for the starting job, similar to how Seattle did it last year. Hmm. Levitre, Byrd to sign, and in addition, Alex Smith? How would the Bills pay for that? Why would any QB come in to play for 1 year. Alex Smith had a good year, but like Fitz, he doesn't go down field... he also had a damn good defense plus Crabtree and Moss. Give any QB that and they are going to fare pretty well. Put Smith on Gailey's Bills, is there really a dime's difference in he and Fitz or the results. Smith was managed very tightly the past two seasons, but still could not hang on to his job. I doubt he wants to play behind a young gun again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
first_and_ten Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 The only way Fitz stays with the Bills is if he agrees to restructure his contract and accepts a backup role if need be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jumbalaya Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 good luck selling tickets if fitz is the guy next year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Hindsight Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I'd be shocked if they pay him $7 million. That's cash money. We have 20 million in cap space. 7 million for a QB isn't that much. Especially one with 3 years starting experience Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr. Trooth Posted January 25, 2013 Author Share Posted January 25, 2013 The only way Fitz stays with the Bills is if he agrees to restructure his contract and accepts a backup role if need be. 1) Why would he agree to a restructure? What's in it for him? Cur him? Bills got no QBs then. A fith rate chump QB just cost the Bills triple what he'd get anywhere else. 2) Backup? Backup who? What QB do the Bills have that he is going to back up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JPS Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 We have 20 million in cap space. 7 million for a QB isn't that much. Especially one with 3 years starting experience Veteran minimum is too much for Fitz. He's just not a good QB. His 3 years is proof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ganesh Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Fitz won't be cut for the simple fact that we have nobody to replace him and you can't go into the draft of free agency expecting to get the guy you like. I don't think that is clear-cut in stone. If the Bills do get a veteran in FA like Alex Smith or trade for Matt Flynn, then they will cut Fitz. I don't think the Bills are going to pay Fitz a third year in a row for mediocre play at the most important position, unless the coaching staff believes they can salvage him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max997 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 (edited) There is a big difference between cap money and real money so there is absolutely an advantage to releasing him. It amazes me that people don't get this Fitz's contract is not guaranteed so the Bills can save 10.45 mil in real money which is obviously a lot especially for a team like the Bills You don't keep a player simply bc it won't save the team much salary cap space. The only reason to keep Fitz would be as a mentor and backup to a younger QB but it certainly shouldn't and won't be at 10.45 mil Edited January 25, 2013 by Max997 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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