Big Turk Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 I keep hearing how the Bills "never throw downfield". This however, is a myth. Per game charters with either Pro Football Focus or Pro Football Outsiders(can't remember which one), the Bills threw downfield 12th most in the NFL last year. The definition of throwing downfield was a pass that travelled over 20 yards in the air. Food for thought, so this myth can stop... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Offside Number 76 Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 I keep hearing how the Bills "never throw downfield". This however, is a myth. Per game charters with either Pro Football Focus or Pro Football Outsiders(can't remember which one), the Bills threw downfield 12th most in the NFL last year. The definition of throwing downfield was a pass that travelled over 20 yards in the air. Food for thought, so this myth can stop... Well, remember which one and then link to the charts. I don't doubt you inherently, but I'd love to see the actual evidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
San Jose Bills Fan Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 And then there's the question of how many downfield throws they've made this year so far compared to the rest of the league. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K-9 Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 I'm not surprised at all really. I'd be willing to be that if PFF defines a long ball as that which travels 20 yards or more in the air, that no team in the league does it very often and that the leading QB in that category has a completion percentage well below 50%. There's a reason it's a low percentage play and has been for ages. I'm not sure where fans get the idea that the Bills are the only team in the league that never attempts them or that Fitz is the only QB in the league that sucks at completing them. If anyone has the time or inclination, I'd be interested to see what PFF's stats say about the 'long ball.' GO BILLS!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meathead Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 another poster really bad at this interwebs thingy link or it didnt happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLutieFLakesPLZnoOJ Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 another poster really bad at this interwebs thingy link or it didnt happen Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
San-O Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 I keep hearing how the Bills "never throw downfield". This however, is a myth. Per game charters with either Pro Football Focus or Pro Football Outsiders(can't remember which one), the Bills threw downfield 12th most in the NFL last year. The definition of throwing downfield was a pass that travelled over 20 yards in the air. Food for thought, so this myth can stop... Fitz's problem isn't THROWING the ball downfiels, it's COMPLETING them downfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 another poster really bad at this interwebs thingy link or it didnt happen Read the post again. He already said its proven and can be put to rest. Why can't you just let it be?!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrags Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 And then there's the question of how many downfield throws they've made this year so far compared to the rest of the league. Or is the evidence show the amount of throws downfield or the actual yardage in the plays. Maybe the WRs just caught the ball for 6 yards then gained another 14 rac yardage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kelly the Dog Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 Or is the evidence show the amount of throws downfield or the actual yardage in the plays. Maybe the WRs just caught the ball for 6 yards then gained another 14 rac yardage. He already answered that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrags Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 He already answered that. That must have felt great didn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 (edited) I just have this sneaking suspicion that it's going to be fitz, not the bills in this ranking and he will be 12th of only 14 qbs to start 16 games. Then, when coupled with our above average pass percentage.... Our deep balls per drop back (or similar metric that standardizes) would drop further.. For reference he was 14/42 On balls flying 21-30 yards and 1/12 on balls going 30+ last year Edited September 20, 2012 by NoSaint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 (edited) To put that in perspective: Kevin kolb and John Skelton combined for 3/12 over 30, Brees 10/21, sanchez was 2/12, cam was 7/25, Alex smith 5/15, Eli was 11/35, Rodgers was 11/20, cassel was 4/16, Vick was 7/20 despite missing games, romo was 9/18, dalton 11/24 These are 30+ yard throws as its quick and easy to list. Just picked some random qbs at different price points, different schemes, etc.... I'd guess big Ben, flacco, stafford, Matt Ryan, Carson Palmer, probably worked the ball downfield a lot. Cutler probably before his injury. I'm guessing Brady's underwhelming with no wr threats last year, schaub might be likewise with Johnson hurt and his own injury (just peeked, actually 5/11). I'd guess freeman was ok, not great, gabbert probably attrocious. This doesn't take into account picks, drawing interference, hail Mary's hurting the numbers, probably not a ton of throwaways fouling it up at that distance but maybe a few- this was real quick and dirty. But on first glance we pushed some but I wouldn't say a lot, and I'd say we were below the average in how effective a threat it was. My gut says you want atleast one deep ball (30+) per game and to hit on like 30% as the low end to really stretch the field effectively (just with a quick glance). The closer you get to 2 per game and 50% the better obviously (that'd be hitting 1 long ball per game - Rodgers being the MVP and being closest to that, but also being an awful standard to measure qbs by as it was a tremendous season. Edited September 20, 2012 by NoSaint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkington Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 Am I the only one that doesn't really care about the deep ball? IMO, the slants with running space/blocking are more reliable and can be just as deadly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nucci Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 I keep hearing how the Bills "never throw downfield". This however, is a myth. Per game charters with either Pro Football Focus or Pro Football Outsiders(can't remember which one), the Bills threw downfield 12th most in the NFL last year. The definition of throwing downfield was a pass that travelled over 20 yards in the air. Food for thought, so this myth can stop... They're just not very successful at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maybe Someday Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 Am I the only one that doesn't really care about the deep ball? IMO, the slants with running space/blocking are more reliable and can be just as deadly. The threat of a deep ball opens up those slants, etc even more because the safeties can’t cheat down. I agree that you’ve got to throw at least 1-2 deep per game. Keep that defense honest and if you hit one or get a pass interference penalty, you flip the field in one play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muffmonster Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 Fitz's problem isn't THROWING the ball downfiels, it's COMPLETING them downfield. Seems to complete them to the other team fairly well when going deep down the sideline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 Am I the only one that doesn't really care about the deep ball? IMO, the slants with running space/blocking are more reliable and can be just as deadly. Those are everyone's bread and butter but when they aren't worried about you going over the top - atleast a little - those get real hard to find space on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Just in Atlanta Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 Throwing or completing? Don't buy it for one second if the latter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkington Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 The threat of a deep ball opens up those slants, etc even more because the safeties can’t cheat down. I agree that you’ve got to throw at least 1-2 deep per game. Keep that defense honest and if you hit one or get a pass interference penalty, you flip the field in one play. That's basically where my head is at. Just throw one a time or two a game to make them think about it. The whole "OH WE DONT THROW 30 AND COMPLETE 20 OF THEM MEANS WE SUCK" argument just falls on deaf ears to me, though. Utilize the talents that you have, it's not like we're hurting on yards per play averages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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