All-22 Coaches Film -- Analysis of Fitz Week Two

[JESSEFEFFER]

Except for the 2 games last year that he brought the Bills back from and won. One of them being the Patriots....

 

Or the Bengals game from 2010 or the game for the Rams in his rookie year when Martin got knocked out.

[K-9]

To the Fitz bashers:

 

What do we do now? We have a team that is playoff capable, but some seem set on the fact that Fitz won't let it happen. Do we force TJ into the position? Do we try Thigpen? Do we sign someone who is a FA? Trade for someone else's backup?

 

For all the whining about Fitz, I pretty much never see any solutions offered.

 

I'm as optimistic as the next guy, but I haven't yet seen much of what they need to be playoff capable after two games this season. I am encouraged by our OLine and Spiller and I have hopes that what we saw out of the D line against the Chiefs will be the norm. But I still have big concerns about our secondary, LBs, and wideouts not named Johnson.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[Dorkington]

I'm as optimistic as the next guy, but I haven't yet seen much of what they need to be playoff capable after two games this season. I am encouraged by our OLine and Spiller and I have hopes that what we saw out of the D line against the Chiefs will be the norm. But I still have big concerns about our secondary, LBs, and wideouts not named Johnson.

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

My apologies. I should say "on paper".

[FreakPop]

I'm as optimistic as the next guy, but I haven't yet seen much of what they need to be playoff capable after two games this season. I am encouraged by our OLine and Spiller and I have hopes that what we saw out of the D line against the Chiefs will be the norm. But I still have big concerns about our secondary, LBs, and wideouts not named Johnson.

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

Me too. The WR core is shaky at best with Nelson, now without him.

 

Oh yeah, that's another thing that without a doubt that hampers Fitz, is the lack of decent WR.

[JESSEFEFFER]

Here it is plain and simple. If you are content with being 8-8, 7-9, and maybe a long shot of 9-7 then Fitz (the best BACKUP in the league) is your man. If you are sick of not making the playoffs, or wanting to have a fighting chance if they DO make the playoffs at 9-7 then Fitz is NOT your man.

 

FItz is capable of 2 types of games. BAD games and WELL MANAGED games. That is what he has shown in 7 years in the league. The rest of the team is built to a much higher standard that Fitzpatrick the Football Player (not the man who is a great teammate). Keep using him as a "game manager" and hope you do not fall behind to often in games as they did against the Jets. Asking Fitzpatrick to bring you back in a game is way to much. All that it does is build his "garbage stats" and give everyone on here continued false hope as they seem to forget quickly about previous weeks and previous seasons.

 

Here it is just as simple. Losman and Edwards were good enough for 7 wins (even if they were tough to watch.) Fitz is way more productive than them. With the way the o-line has come together early and if they stay relatively healthy, 10 wins is a fair benchmark. If Fitzpatrick can't do his part to achieve that, then it's time for plan B. But, let's be fair, he's got a team around him now (apparently so), let's see where he can lead them.

[Endless Ike]

Fitz has a career QB rating of 75. Last week his QB rating was 120. By that metric, probably one of the best 5 games of his career.

 

Judging him based on that game is cherry picking. I'm sure we would all like to be judged based on one of our best days, but that's not how it works. You take the good with the bad, and when you mix it all together, Fitz is a hell of a lot closer to the QB in the Jets game than the one in the KC game.

Edited September 19, 2012 by Endless Ike

[Billsrhody]

Wrong. What you said was easy to understand for anyone with a rudimentary understanding of the game. Yes, there is a difference between looking off a defender and going to your first read vs. looking at your first read, going through progressions, and hitting a receiver that isn't your primary.

 

We get that.

 

What you don't seem to want to grasp or "get" is that Fitz made a good decision with the ball AFTER the defender primarily responsible for Fitz went to his right AFTER Fitz looked in that direction. Fitz swayed Derrick Johnson's decision to take himself out of position by looking to his left, regardless of whether or not he intended to 'look' him off.

 

Another thing you don't 'get' is that there isn't a graduated ranking of decision making between 'good' and 'great' as you seem to want to argue.

 

We get it, Fitz is not a franchise QB. Like the rest of us, you have a firm grasp of the obvious in that regard. Some of us just don't have to piss on the good things he does by saying they have to be great things instead.

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

I have said that Fitz made a good decision, I just also think it was an easy one. And I also do not think that Fitz did anything special on that play because most QBs can do what he did on that play.

 

You are the one who keeps bringing up good vs great. You are entitled to your opinion that he was great on that play. Thats fine with me, I just dont think of it in the same way. I think Fitz played terrible in game one, and average in game two. If you ask Fitz, I bet that he would say he could play a whole lot better than he played against Chiefs.

[eball]

This is a great thread, however, it has one clear flaw. The analysis people are going to base their comments on now are mostly reliant on what you said above being accurate. Unfortunately, it is not and doesn't come close to telling the whole story. I don't mean that offensively, just that its incomplete. Basically, what you are claiming essentially here is that in the whole game Fitz made only 3 bad throws. That just simply is not true. On several completed passes, plays you seem to have basically ignored, Fitz threw the ball poorly and behind the receiver or late preventing the player from actually being able to make a play and advance the ball. There was one throw to SJ that probably is a TD if Fitz does not throw the ball behind him allowing the DB to instantly tackle him on the catch as SJ had to break the route just to catch the ball. Even the announcers said as much during the live game.

 

I am not saying every throw he made was poor, I have already said the Chandler TD was a nice throw. However, there were many poorly thrown balls by him, not 3. Just because you complete a pass does not make it a good pass nor a good decision by default. When you make your read late and deliver the ball late, the receiver has no chance to do anything with the ball once he receives it...assuming the DB doesn't break it up in the first place. We had several times where if Fitz would have gotten the ball out when he should have the we could have had better results. We had several completed passes that could have been more than they were if Fitz would have gotten them the ball accurately and on time. He had a couple almost INT's on some other poor throws. He had several incomplete passes that could have been completed with a better throw.

 

So, again, your analysis is going to suggest the people who doubt him don't know football, when its actually the other way around. There is so much more than stats or even completions. His mechanics look terrible this year, almost worse than last year so far. His reads are consistently late. His accuracy is consistently off, even on passes he completes where they are often behind the WR or near the ground. His passes wobble and have a lot of air on them when its anything past a 10 yard throw. I can't believe more people are not talking about this next point...he has been locking onto players too making the job of the D easier. The guy is struggling in all facets of the game so far this year. If FItz would have been out there trying to throw his way to victory, this would have been a very different game.

 

Luckily, it was KC who has been atrocious so far this season in 2 weeks and struggled all preseason and also CJ and the D came through big time as well. All Fitz had to do was just not turn the ball over, which he did do (although he had a couple close calls). Bottom line is, this team can not win if we have to rely on Fitz to throw us to victory...our best chance is to take the ball out of his hands and give it to CJ and FJ with Fitz being more of a game manager. Problem is, game managers main responsibility is to be accurate and not turnover prone...too of Fitz's biggest issues.

 

Well, alpha, thanks for the somewhat backhanded compliment, but you've really got it all wrong. First of all, I plainly admitted I expected to see a lousy Fitz performance so the thought that I did this to convince anyone of Fitz's greatness (or even adequacy) is a false premise. I was honestly surprised at how competent and in control he looked, because I had the opposite impression live (i.e., in the stadium). I do believe the home crowd was waiting for something bad to happen.

 

As for your comments I've bolded above, it's really not that difficult to go look at the 10 completions for the game and conclude you're simply incorrect.

 

I do not have the qualifications of an "expert" film analyst, and I think I made it pretty clear these are only my impressions. I certainly hope my original post didn't come across as an insult to anyone -- reading it back I don't see how it would. You, however, seem to have an axe to grind. Best of luck to you.

[Billsrhody]

Fitz has a career QB rating of 75. Last week his QB rating was 120. By that metric, probably one of the best 5 games of his career.

 

Judging him based on that game is cherry picking. I'm sure we would all like to be judged based on one of our best days, but that's not how it works. You take the good with the bad, and when you mix it all together, Fitz is a hell of a lot closer to the QB in the Jets game than the one in the KC game.

 

Either that or he is wildly inconsistent, which I think is closer to the truth.

[K-9]

I have said that Fitz made a good decision, I just also think it was an easy one. And I also do not think that Fitz did anything special on that play because most QBs can do what he did on that play.

 

You are the one who keeps bringing up good vs great. You are entitled to your opinion that he was great on that play. Thats fine with me, I just dont think of it in the same way. I think Fitz played terrible in game one, and average in game two. If you ask Fitz, I bet that he would say he could play a whole lot better than he played against Chiefs.

 

Perhaps I didn't know what you meant when you said Fitz made the 'right' decision vs. a 'good' decision. In my mind, right decisions are always good decisions. But let's get past that. We can agree that Fitz would be critical of his performance against the Chiefs.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[Malazan]

Bills had a chance to trade up and give 100 million dollars, next ten 1st rounds picks and 1000 virgins to get Andrew Luck and didn't do it. This is why this will always be a sh*t team. </insanity>

[Meathead]

1. 3rd and 1, Buffalo 25, 10:11 1st Q -- Fitz rolls right and throws incomplete to Chandler. He actually makes two mistakes on the play -- failing to throw initially when Chandler breaks free, and then badly underthrowing the open TE while moving to his right. Just a bad play; Bills punt.

 

ive watched the game three times now and im convinced he threw that ball in the dirt on purpose

 

yeah, he is way late on throwing to what initially is a wide open chandler. he sort of half pumps, making it even later, and then decides to just end the play instead of taking another chance trying to throw over the top on a late ball with the defender closing fast

 

you can tell hes throwing it into the ground on purpose by his throwing motion, its short and choppy with no follow through, exactly like what you do when you mean to throw the ball in the dirt

 

so certainly not a good play for him, and he did still have the chance to arc it over the top to chandler. but after getting burned by two late throw picks last week i can see why he decided to just cut their losses and intentionally ground the ball. until he has confidence in his new mechanics and is sure he can make those passes, im very supportive of him just throwing it away like that

[JÂy RÛßeÒ]

If you ask Fitz, I bet that he would say he could play a whole lot better than he played against Chiefs.

Someone did at 2:05 of this video.

[Endless Ike]

Either that or he is wildly inconsistent, which I think is closer to the truth.

 

Yes wildly inconsistent, but his inconsistency trends towards 75 QB rating games, not 120 QB rating games.

[NoSaint]

 

 

Either that or he is wildly inconsistent, which I think is closer to the truth.

 

yup - when you flip coins sometimes you get a lot of heads in a row, a lot of tails, or a pretty even mix.

 

fitz dropping back has a bit of that coin flip feel to him. whether its that he has to take chances (ie decisions), or his arm just lets him down sometimes - or a combo of the two most likely - it will likely be part of his MO for the long term. he will be hard to predict week in and week out.

 

 

 

Yes wildly inconsistent, but his inconsistency trends towards 75 QB rating games, not 120 QB rating games.

 

ill agree the mean that he averages out to is pretty well league average, give or take (id guess slightly below, but only slightly in the long term)

Edited September 19, 2012 by NoSaint

[Kelly the Dog]

ive watched the game three times now and im convinced he threw that ball in the dirt on purpose

 

yeah, he is way late on throwing to what initially is a wide open chandler. he sort of half pumps, making it even later, and then decides to just end the play instead of taking another chance trying to throw over the top on a late ball with the defender closing fast

 

you can tell hes throwing it into the ground on purpose by his throwing motion, its short and choppy with no follow through, exactly like what you do when you mean to throw the ball in the dirt

 

so certainly not a good play for him, and he did still have the chance to arc it over the top to chandler. but after getting burned by two late throw picks last week i can see why he decided to just cut their losses and intentionally ground the ball. until he has confidence in his new mechanics and is sure he can make those passes, im very supportive of him just throwing it away like that

Fitz himself said after the game, "Obviously that first one was a bad throw." I heard him say it. It's on bills.com or GR in one of the interviews.

[Billsrhody]

ive watched the game three times now and im convinced he threw that ball in the dirt on purpose

 

yeah, he is way late on throwing to what initially is a wide open chandler. he sort of half pumps, making it even later, and then decides to just end the play instead of taking another chance trying to throw over the top on a late ball with the defender closing fast

 

you can tell hes throwing it into the ground on purpose by his throwing motion, its short and choppy with no follow through, exactly like what you do when you mean to throw the ball in the dirt

 

so certainly not a good play for him, and he did still have the chance to arc it over the top to chandler. but after getting burned by two late throw picks last week i can see why he decided to just cut their losses and intentionally ground the ball. until he has confidence in his new mechanics and is sure he can make those passes, im very supportive of him just throwing it away like that

 

Someone did at 2:05 of this video.

 

Answer: "First throw of the game wasn’t a good one, it was one of those game where I was asked to manage the game and not turn the ball over."

 

I think that pertains to both of these

 

Yes wildly inconsistent, but his inconsistency trends towards 75 QB rating games, not 120 QB rating games.

 

I bet in the last few years he has a handful of games above 90 and a handful below 60.

[billsfan89]

The Bills basically game planed to have Fitz manage the game, I feel he forces it less when the ground game gets going and the team plays with a lead. I think with how D's are gearing up to stop the pass having a good ground game and a QB that can run is going to help keep teams play a more honest approach. Which will help Fitz out a lot.

 

Overall I think Fitz did what he had to in week two, was it a great game? No he made some mistakes, was it a good game, not really. But it was good enough to get the job done, some good throws and some misses. He put the game away with that throw to Chandler and made a couple other plays that he had to make. More importantly he didn't make any major mistakes.

[eball]

Reading all of these responses, I find it curious that some are unwilling to suggest Fitz had a "good" game when the results are a win, 2 TD passes, no turnovers, nearly 40 yards in scrambles, and the direction of four TD drives.

 

Lucy, 'splain.

Edited September 19, 2012 by eball

[NoSaint]

 

 

 

 

Answer: "First throw of the game wasn’t a good one, it was one of those game where I was asked to manage the game and not turn the ball over."

 

I think that pertains to both of these

 

 

 

I bet in the last few years he has a handful of games above 90 and a handful below 60.

 

last year was 3 over 100 and 3 under 50

5 over 90, and 4 under 60

 

Reading all of these responses, I find it curious that some are unwilling to suggest Fitz had a "good" game when the results are a win, 2 TD passes, no turnovers, nearly 40 yards in scrambles, and the direction of four TD drives.

 

Lucy, 'splain.

im trying to enjoy the win, but if im going to be asked directly on how i thought fitz played:

 

it was a positive performance but he never had any wow factor.

his arm didnt look all that impressive.

 

but he didnt screw up.

 

thats a good day, but its a hard one to jump up and down for as it didnt dispel any of the real concerns.

 

ill take 14 more of them though.