Cutler

[JESSEFEFFER]

Cutler and Fitz have not been that different over the last two years. Both have not been good enough. I like Fitz's chances of getting better, though. It's more about attitude than talent as the huge list of 1st round busts attests to.

 

As to the posts here that imply that avg yards per atttempt is some magically meaningful stat, do the math and see what happens when you factor in the sacks a QB takes. Dropping back is an attempted pass play and taking a sack (or maybe avoiding.them) is mostly on the QB. Taking sacks does nothing to QB passer rating nor average gain per attempt. Avoiding them by getting rid of the ball, hopefully without a pick but usually under duress, will hurt completion % and yards per attempt and thus QB passer rating.

 

Did we learn nothing from Flutie vs. Johnson?

[K-9]

Football Outsiders 2010

 

 

R.Fitzpatrick BUF 223 23 139 24 -3.6% 27 -6.4% 48.3 21 466 2,851 2,676 23 3 3 15 58.1% 2/25

D.Stanton DET 174 24 84 28 12.2% 12 0.0% 42.4 28 123 722 840 4 1 1 3 59.5% 0/0

S.Wallace CLE 151 25 114 25 11.3% 14 5.8% 38.4 34 107 661 749 4 0 0 2 63.4% 1/14

K.Collins TEN 150 26 218 23 -3.2% 26 0.4% 58.7 14 290 1,706 1,720 14 1 3 8 58.2% 3/60

C.McCoy CLE 146 27 84 27 -1.9% 25 -5.8% 45.1 25 245 1,465 1,461 6 1 0 9 61.3% 1/38

D.McNabb WAS 133 28 58 30 -6.9% 29 -9.3% 38.9 33 509 3,078 2,690 14 8 0 13 58.5% 3/48

M.Stafford DET 91 29 80 29 3.0% 21 1.2% 58.1 15 100 504 646 6 0 1 1 59.4% 1/27

J.Cutler CHI 81 30 54 31 -8.5% 30 -9.3% 48.5 19 484 2,930 2,552 23 4 5 16 60.4% 7/140

 

Football Outsiders 2011

 

J.Campbell OAK 340 17 326 17 19.8% 6 18.5% 54.3 19 169 1,151 1,348 6 1 0 3 61.0% 3/40

C.Palmer OAK 296 18 298 18 2.5% 15 2.7% 62.6 12 344 2,627 2,145 13 1 1 16 61.2% 3/36

R.Fitzpatrick BUF 189 19 194 20 -6.2% 26 -6.1% 50.5 21 591 3,702 3,383 24 4 1 23 62.5% 11/236

T.Jackson SEA 161 20 61 25 -6.0% 25 -9.2% 37.7 33 495 2,790 2,719 14 3 4 9 60.8% 5/135

J.Cutler CHI 157 21 207 19 -3.5% 21 -1.0% 59.7 14 339 2,140 1,867 13 4 2 7 58.1% 3/35

M.Moore MIA 135 22 124 22 -5.7% 24 -6.1% 56.7 17 388 2,266 2,185 16 6 6 9 60.6% 6/110

D.Orlovsky IND 121 23 36 26 -2.2% 19 -8.5% 49.9 22 204 1,118 1,258 6 4 3 4 64.2% 2/21

K.Orton 2TM 97 24 170 21 -5.4% 23 -1.1% 49.8 23 262 1,686 1,483 9 0 2 9 60.4% 3/32

 

Looks like some computer program running on a monitor in a Tom Clancy novel.

 

WTF does any of that mean. Can you translate this?

 

GO BILLS!!!

[JESSEFEFFER]

The bolded number is the DVOA - defense adjusted value over avderage. Here's a link to 2011. Basically, Cutler's draft round and supposedly great QB metrics have many here fooled.

 

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb2011

 

As for making tables and spreadsheets work in these forums, I too am no better than average.

[K-9]

The bolded number is the DVOA - defense adjusted value over avderage. Here's a link to 2011. Basically, Cutler's draft round and supposedly great QB metrics have many here fooled.

 

http://www.footballo...om/stats/qb2011

 

As for making tables and spreadsheets work in these forums, I too am no better than average.

 

Thanks. I was just busting your chops. Some of my own previous attempts make the Rosetta Stone look like it was written in plain English.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[Alphadawg7]

The bolded number is the DVOA - defense adjusted value over avderage. Here's a link to 2011. Basically, Cutler's draft round and supposedly great QB metrics have many here fooled.

 

http://www.footballo...om/stats/qb2011

 

As for making tables and spreadsheets work in these forums, I too am no better than average.

 

Have you actually read the list? They are not listed in order of how they rank DVOA. It says next to DVOA their ranking by DVOA and Cutler is higher. It also has QBR rankings and again, Cutler ranked higher. The order that they are listed on that list is by DYAR...Cutler is rated better than Fitz in just about every category and is in career stats too.

Edited September 15, 2012 by Alphadawg7

[JESSEFEFFER]

Did you? In 2010 Ryan was higher @ -3.6 to -9.3. Cutler was "higher" in 2011 @ -3.5 to -6.2. Thus, my statement that "Cutler and Fitz have not been that different over the last two years. Both have not been good enough. I like Fitz's chances of getting better, though. It's more about attitude than talent as the huge list of 1st round busts attests to."

[NoSaint]

Did you? In 2010 Ryan was higher @ -3.6 to -9.3. Cutler was "higher" in 2011 @ -3.5 to -6.2. Thus, my statement that "Cutler and Fitz have not been that different over the last two years. Both have not been good enough. I like Fitz's chances of getting better, though. It's more about attitude than talent as the huge list of 1st round busts attests to."

 

Could be a random flub, but any reason that fitz is higher in 2010 and cutler is "higher" in 2012. The quotes make it seem like your saying cutler wasn't truly higher

[Rico]

This thread is further proof that stats are for losers.

 

I can understand wanting to dump Fitz, but absolutely NOT for a B word like Cutler, even if he did suddenly become available.

[K-9]

This thread is further proof that stats are for losers.

 

I can understand wanting to dump Fitz, but absolutely NOT for a B word like Cutler, even if he did suddenly become available.

 

I kinda feel the same way. There's a lot to like about Cutler but man, I've seen him make some of the dumbest throws imagineable. Throws that had nothing to do with being pressured or hurried in any way. Just stupid things like throwing the ball while he's backpedaling or just not taking the time to set himself.

 

His onfield demeanor leaves a lot to be desired, too. That crap with him getting in the face of and then bumping his LT the other night is a case in point. That is not leadership. That is not Kelly on the sidelines giving his OL the business. That's not telling your WR to get his head of out of his ass and run the damn route. That's being a total dick.

 

GO BILLS!!!

Edited September 15, 2012 by K-9

[Cutting Drew With Dignity]

This thread is further proof that stats are for losers.

 

Just win baby!

[Rico]

Just win baby!

Welcome back Cutting Drew With Dignity! Always a pleasure reading your posts!

[JESSEFEFFER]

Could be a random flub, but any reason that fitz is higher in 2010 and cutler is "higher" in 2012. The quotes make it seem like your saying cutler wasn't truly higher

 

Not sure what you mean but these are subzero numbers here.

[NoSaint]

 

 

Not sure what you mean but these are subzero numbers here.

 

Fair enough - I was noting that when speaking about cutlers better year you put quotes around the "higher" ranking where fitz was simply typed as higher. The quotes made it seem like you were possibly discounting cutlers higher ranking for some reason. That fitz beat him one year but some how cutler snuck ahead on a technicality or something and it wasn't truly a better season.

 

Thats why I asked.

[JESSEFEFFER]

Oh, ok, got you. As these were very close but rather mediocre scores, I used the quotes to suggest that we were seeing virtual ties here. Should have use the quotes for both.

[Rubes]

I'm not going to say that Fitz is better than Cutler, but when you consider that Cutler is 0-3 in his last three trips to Lambeau with 2 TDs and 10 INTs, they sure do look like they share some similarities. It was Cutler's 9th game with a less-than-50 QB rating since arriving in Chicago. Cutler is getting eviscerated by the Chicago media, with phrases like "pouty quarterback", "questionable leader", and "a disaster" when playing in night games.

 

Fitz may not have Cutler's physical skills, but I'm not completely convinced he's the better quarterback overall.

Edited September 15, 2012 by Rubes

[Orton's Arm]

The bolded number is the DVOA - defense adjusted value over avderage. Here's a link to 2011. Basically, Cutler's draft round and supposedly great QB metrics have many here fooled.

 

http://www.footballo...om/stats/qb2011

 

As for making tables and spreadsheets work in these forums, I too am no better than average.

Thanks for the link. I read the lengthy explanation about DVOA. Clearly, a lot of intelligent and logical thought has gone into creating that particular statistic. However, I was a bit disappointed to see they didn't provide the actual formula used to calculate DVOA. Without seeing the actual formula, I can't know whether some of my concerns about DVOA are valid or misplaced.

 

For example: if a QB plays behind a bad offensive line, then odds are he'll pass for fewer yards per play than would have been the case, had those offensive linemen been Pro Bowl caliber. This means that under most measurement systems, including my favorite (yards per attempt), QBs who play behind bad offensive lines already get penalized, once, for something which isn't their fault. From what I gather, DVOA does not correct that problem.

 

What it may be doing, instead, is adding another penalty for quarterbacks who play behind bad OLs (by blaming them for sacks). We all saw that Cutler plays behind a horrible OL. But does DVOA penalize him twice for that OL's shortcomings? If so, then that could be one possible explanation for why Cutler's DVOA is a lot worse than his yards per attempt.

 

But I don't like playing that kind of guessing game. Not only do I want to know what the formula is for DVOA, I'd also like to know the specific numbers they used to calculate Cutler's (and other QBs') DVOAs. That way, I could see for myself that Cutler is strong in X and Y components of DVOA, but weak with respect to component Z. But with the numbers going into the formula being something of a mystery, and with the formula itself also a mystery, it's tempting to regard the results of said formula as mysterious. Mysterious doesn't necessarily mean wrong. I just wish I knew whether DVOA was shining a light on some flaw in Cutler's play not illuminated by yards per attempt. Or whether DVOA was heaping blame on Cutler's shoulders for the shortcomings of his teammates.

[BuffOrange]

Funny...when he got knocked out to that playoff game two years ago, the rap on him was "he doesn't care enough", he seems "blase", yadda, yadda yadda....so, last night, he chews out his linemen, and the same talking heads who were crucifying him before are yacking about his "attitude" and "lack of leadership". If that was Peyton Manning, Brady, or a half dozen other guys, they would be extolling his virtues as a "leader of men". He is not at the level of Manning, Brady, Brees, etc, but anyone who thinks he isn't significantly better than Ryan Fitzpatrick is really not living in the real world, or is just a true homer.

 

Cutler threw a bad pick last night, in what was desperation time, during a game where he was getting the crap kicked out of him. Nobody has ever seen this happen before from one of the elites?

 

Totally agree with this. Bill Barnwell hit the nail on the head with this as well. Much like coaches who don't show emotion on the sidelines - it's kinda just something for mouth-breathers on espn to complain about but they only complain about it when the team loses. It's all just garbage.

[JESSEFEFFER]

To revisit this debate, here is an analysis of Cutler provided by a Bears' fan with some experience as a QB coach at the college and high school levels. It's rather technical but it's an interesting breakdown of what is missing from Cutler's game and offers an explanation about why he might be forever flawed. It comes from Football Outsiders as well.

 

When I read it I thought it fit in very well with this discussion. Here is the link:

 

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/extra-points/2012/what-wrong-jay-cutler

[Kaz]

You ever watch Jim Kelly?

Yes. You ever heard about a man named Jesus?

 

Wow, I go away from this thread for a week or so and the whole world suddenly gets smart. You wanna bring Brett Favre into the discussion, too?

[Beerball]

I wouldn't trade a box of Kyle Williams' used jockstraps for Cutler.

 

Talent? Yes.

Ability? Yes.

Ability to use talent? Not so much.