LiterateStylish Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 Taking a look at the offensive performances of the last 5 Super Bowl Champions during the pre-season of their Super Bowl year. Starters only. Buffalo Bills 2012: 17 points through 3 games. New York Giants 2011: Game One: 3 points against Carolina Game Two: 13 points against Chicago Game Three: 3 points against Jets Game Four: 3 points against Patriots Total: 22 points Green Bay Packers 2010: Game One: 14 points against Cleveland Game Two: 14 points against Seattle Game Three: 21 points against Colts Game Four: Starters didn't play Total: 45 points New Orleans Saints 2009: Game One: 7 points against Bengals Game Two: 7 points against Texans Game Three: 21 points against Raiders Game Four: Starters didn't play Total: 35 points Pittsburgh Steelers 2008: Game One: 10 points against Eagles Game Two: 6 points against Vikings Game Three: 7 points against Buffalo (This is the game that Trent looked great in, hitting Robert Royal in the back of the endzone) Game Four: 0 points Total: 23 points New York Giants 2007: Game One: 7 points against Carolina Game Two: 7 points against Baltimore Game Three: 10 points against Jets Game Three: 0 points against Patriots Total: 24 points Do you see a pattern? With the exception of the Saints and Packers, the other Super Bowl teams did not put up anything special in way of Pre-Season points. The reason I wanted to post this thread, is to point out that while there are teams like the Packers and Saints who show their offensive ability in the pre-season, there are others like the Giants and Steelers who do not. My hypothesis not that the Bills offense will accomplish anything significant, but rather that pre-season is not a good indicator of season long performance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KD in CA Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 Wait, this means we might not be doomed?? I love it. Thanks for the good analysis as usual L-S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PearlHowardman Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 All of those SB winning teams have very, very good starting quarterbacks. We have second-string QB Ryan Fitzpatrick as our starter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bangarang Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 Still doomed. Time to blow it up and rebuild. Can we forfeit tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meathead Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 one huge difference on all those teams ralph isnt cheap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bangarang Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 All of those SB winning teams have very, very good starting quarterbacks. We have second-string QB Ryan Fitzpatrick as our starter. So maybe we won't win the SB. It doesn't mean that we can't win games, be competitive and make the playoffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K-9 Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 All of those SB winning teams have very, very good starting quarterbacks. We have second-string QB Ryan Fitzpatrick as our starter. Keen insight. GO BILLS!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Over 29 years of fanhood Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 Taking a look at the offensive performances of the last 5 Super Bowl Champions during the pre-season of their Super Bowl year. Starters only. Buffalo Bills 2012: 17 points through 3 games. New York Giants 2011: Game One: 3 points against Carolina Game Two: 13 points against Chicago Game Three: 3 points against Jets Game Four: 3 points against Patriots Total: 22 points Green Bay Packers 2010: Game One: 14 points against Cleveland Game Two: 14 points against Seattle Game Three: 21 points against Colts Game Four: Starters didn't play Total: 45 points New Orleans Saints 2009: Game One: 7 points against Bengals Game Two: 7 points against Texans Game Three: 21 points against Raiders Game Four: Starters didn't play Total: 35 points Pittsburgh Steelers 2008: Game One: 10 points against Eagles Game Two: 6 points against Vikings Game Three: 7 points against Buffalo (This is the game that Trent looked great in, hitting Robert Royal in the back of the endzone) Game Four: 0 points Total: 23 points New York Giants 2007: Game One: 7 points against Carolina Game Two: 7 points against Baltimore Game Three: 10 points against Jets Game Three: 0 points against Patriots Total: 24 points Do you see a pattern? With the exception of the Saints and Packers, the other Super Bowl teams did not put up anything special in way of Pre-Season points. The reason I wanted to post this thread, is to point out that while there are teams like the Packers and Saints who show their offensive ability in the pre-season, there are others like the Giants and Steelers who do not. My hypothesis not that the Bills offense will accomplish anything significant, but rather that pre-season is not a good indicator of season long performance. I like folks that speak with data. Bills fans even more! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattsox Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 All of those SB winning teams have very, very good starting quarterbacks. We have second-string QB Ryan Fitzpatrick as our starter. Bingo!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LiterateStylish Posted August 30, 2012 Author Share Posted August 30, 2012 All of those SB winning teams have very, very good starting quarterbacks. We have second-string QB Ryan Fitzpatrick as our starter. Those are Super Bowl teams. I think our more immediate goal is simply a playoff birth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnny Hammersticks Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 Nice bar graph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FitzShowUsYourTitz Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 (edited) In the high pitched, pain laden shriek of Nancy Kerrigan..............."Whhhhhhyyyyyyyyyy!" Seriously? Let's just start the darn season. 'Apparently 3 out of 4 people make up 75% of the population.' Edited August 30, 2012 by Cville Bills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Tom Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 Taking a look at the offensive performances of the last 5 Super Bowl Champions during the pre-season of their Super Bowl year. Starters only. Buffalo Bills 2012: 17 points through 3 games. New York Giants 2011: Game One: 3 points against Carolina Game Two: 13 points against Chicago Game Three: 3 points against Jets Game Four: 3 points against Patriots Total: 22 points Green Bay Packers 2010: Game One: 14 points against Cleveland Game Two: 14 points against Seattle Game Three: 21 points against Colts Game Four: Starters didn't play Total: 45 points New Orleans Saints 2009: Game One: 7 points against Bengals Game Two: 7 points against Texans Game Three: 21 points against Raiders Game Four: Starters didn't play Total: 35 points Pittsburgh Steelers 2008: Game One: 10 points against Eagles Game Two: 6 points against Vikings Game Three: 7 points against Buffalo (This is the game that Trent looked great in, hitting Robert Royal in the back of the endzone) Game Four: 0 points Total: 23 points New York Giants 2007: Game One: 7 points against Carolina Game Two: 7 points against Baltimore Game Three: 10 points against Jets Game Three: 0 points against Patriots Total: 24 points Do you see a pattern? With the exception of the Saints and Packers, the other Super Bowl teams did not put up anything special in way of Pre-Season points. The reason I wanted to post this thread, is to point out that while there are teams like the Packers and Saints who show their offensive ability in the pre-season, there are others like the Giants and Steelers who do not. My hypothesis not that the Bills offense will accomplish anything significant, but rather that pre-season is not a good indicator of season long performance. You mean well...but you really need to learn more about statistics than simple bar graphs over limited sample sets. Try figuring the correlation coefficient for preseason record and regular season records over the past ten years for all teams...that'll be a good homework assignment. (I'd do it, but I don't have the time. Start by entering all the data into an excel spreadsheet; PM me if you have any questions from there.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LiterateStylish Posted August 30, 2012 Author Share Posted August 30, 2012 You mean well...but you really need to learn more about statistics than simple bar graphs over limited sample sets. Try figuring the correlation coefficient for preseason record and regular season records over the past ten years for all teams...that'll be a good homework assignment. (I'd do it, but I don't have the time. Start by entering all the data into an excel spreadsheet; PM me if you have any questions from there.) LOL. If you only knew what I did for a living. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Tom Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 LOL. If you only knew what I did for a living. Okay, then you need to APPLY it more here, if you're going to apply it at all. Unless you mean to spoon-feed pablum to the masses, just to !@#$ with them. In which case, carry on with my full support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jauronimo Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 (edited) You mean well...but you really need to learn more about statistics than simple bar graphs over limited sample sets. Try figuring the correlation coefficient for preseason record and regular season records over the past ten years for all teams...that'll be a good homework assignment. (I'd do it, but I don't have the time. Start by entering all the data into an excel spreadsheet; PM me if you have any questions from there.) Or we could save the 2 hours and I'll just let you know that the data will be meaningless. In order for this to be predictive he'll need to regress each teams point totals with their record and identify a number of other variables. Even then the data will be meaningless. How many different plays is each team running? Average playing time that first string, second, string, third string is playing on a position by position basis? The defense each team is playing will also have to be modeled out in preseason and compared to regular season results. Time defensive starters, 2nd string, 3rd string, are each playing against offense 1st, 2nd and 3rd string, etc. If any meaningful conclusion can be drawn he should win a medal. LOL. If you only knew what I did for a living. Go ahead, dazzle us. What do you do for a living? I hope its nothing with numbers. Edited August 30, 2012 by Jauronimo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K-9 Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 3.5 GO BILLS!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fan in Chicago Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 The reason I wanted to post this thread, is to point out that while there are teams like the Packers and Saints who show their offensive ability in the pre-season, there are others like the Giants and Steelers who do not. My hypothesis not that the Bills offense will accomplish anything significant, but rather that pre-season is not a good indicator of season long performance. I agree with your hypothesis. However, I have some color commentary (read: not supported by data) to go with this thread. The teams in your analysis above are largely successful franchises which have been providing above average seasons consistently. Much of their success is by good drafting over the years. The Bills have done neither. SO, in the pre-season, I bet these teams are more interested in discovering emerging players and backups. The Bills, on the other hand, have been fighting to find starters for key positions year in and year out (QB, tackles, DE, CB etc). Perhaps as a consequence, the Bills have followed up poor preseason performances with equally underwhelming regular seasons. This is the key difference between the Bills Superbowl teams and the ones that you quoted above. While I have hopes for this coming season, it is not related to the preseason performance but rather to the increase in the overall talent level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkington Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 Do you see a pattern? With the exception of the Saints and Packers, the other Super Bowl teams did not put up anything special in way of Pre-Season points. Yay, lets play with stats and analysis. You're removing 40% of your data, and it's very likely the Bills starters won't score any points in their 1 series tonight, so we're still likely going to be left with a difference even with you removing a significant chunk of your data. You may think this is great news, but I think your findings are flawed. A little fun: The previous SB winners scored 7.45 pts per contest. The Bills have, so far, scored 5.67 per contest. Let's make the assumption that the starters play about 33% of the pre-season... SB champs = 22.35, our Offseason Winning Bills = 17. I'm not sure about anyone else, but I'd like to see a little more offensive production than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsfanmiami(oh) Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 Yay, lets play with stats and analysis. You're removing 40% of your data, and it's very likely the Bills starters won't score any points in their 1 series tonight, so we're still likely going to be left with a difference even with you removing a significant chunk of your data. You may think this is great news, but I think your findings are flawed. Wait are you saying that perhaps this seemingly bulletproof analysis may be flawed?...I've lost a lot of brain cells since undergrad but I'm pretty sure when making an argument based on statistics, you might not have a real strong case if you "throw out" 2 of the 5 in your sample size because they don't support the original claim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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