Shoutbox Posted April 5, 2012 Share Posted April 5, 2012 McKelvin is not an average starter. He's the 4th best CB on the roster right now and will likely be out of the league completely in a few more years. Give him a 2.25 grade, not 3.0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Fischer Posted April 5, 2012 Share Posted April 5, 2012 If after three or four seasons a team gets two and half starters a draft, you're in good shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billsguy Posted April 5, 2012 Author Share Posted April 5, 2012 Your grading method is flawed. 4th through 7th rounders aren't really as bad if they don't pan out. Even 3rd rounders don't always have a high success rate. You really have to be lax on late rounders and much more harsh on 1st and 2nd round picks. I would grade them on a 1 through 10 scale. But late rounders bottom out at a 4 or a 5. McKelvin 5 (Still on the team and decent but not having the impact a 1st rounder has to have) Hardy 1 (Just a complete bust) Ellis 2 (Complete Bust but as a 3rd rounder its a 2 instead of a 1) Reggie Corner 7 (A decent depth player but you should be able to get those out of the 4th round) Alvin Brown 4 (Not much out of the pick but it was only a 5th rounder) Omon 5 (6th round pick not much there) Bell 7 (Played decently and sometimes well but hurt a lot still good value for a 7th) Stevie 10 (Near Pro Bowl caliber talent out of the 7th round can't complain too much) Cox 5 (Late 7th not going to get much out of them) They total out to a 46 which is about 4.6 per pick. A rather mediocre draft but Stevie is something that came from it and thus kept it from being a complete disaster. All the players drafted go into one basket. The basket is called the team. If you contribute to the team, the round you were drafted in is moot. I was only trying to reflect on the general success of the draft as a WHOLE. I wasn't looking to develop some perfect system nor was I attempting to grade each player based on the round he was drafted. The main and pertinent point (overlooked by some) was to establish how well the draft contributed to the success of the Bills since 2008. On the RELEVANT point, the 2008 draft wasn't good. The day after the draft, USA Today gave the Bills a B-, Football's Future gave the Bills a B- and called James Hardy the best pick. I think the grade is much lower than B- and the point is you can't judge a draft until several years have passed. The same goes for free agents. In four years it may be obvious if spending HUGE money on Mario Willams was worth it. Right now, nobody knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannc Posted April 5, 2012 Share Posted April 5, 2012 Here are my criteria for grading: A 4.0 elite player B+ 3.25 above average NFL player B 3.0 avg starter C+ 2.25 part time starter rotational player C 2.0 depth player D+ 1.25 borderline NFL player F 0.0 out of the league, bust Here is the 2008 draft with my grades (feel free to share your own thoughts) Round Overall 2008 NFL draft Player Position Grade Number grade 1 11 Leodis McKelvin B 3.0 2 41 James Hardy F 0 3 72 Chris Ellis F 0 4 114 Reggie Corner C 2.0 4 132 Derek Fine F 0 5 147 Alvin Bowen F 0 6 179 Xavier Omon F 0 7 219 Demetrius Bell B 3.0 7 224 Steve Johnson B+ 3.25 7 251 Kennard Cox F 0 Overall GPA : 1.125 Grade D+ Conclusion: Steve Johnson kept this draft from being horrible. Even so, it was very bad. I love this sort of analysis. Nice job. In my mind, one other factor that should be considered is the other players still on the board, especially at the same position, when the pick was made. For example, the Hardy pick is even tougher to swallow when you consider that DeSean Jackson went a couple picks later to the Eagles and Royal to the Broncos after that. And of course, taking Lil' Dante with Ngata still on the board, and Maybin with Orakpo, Matthews and Cushing available. Depressing. I don't recall who else was available when McKelvin was selected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannc Posted April 5, 2012 Share Posted April 5, 2012 I love this sort of analysis. Nice job. In my mind, one other factor that should be considered is the other players still on the board, especially at the same position, when the pick was made. For example, the Hardy pick is even tougher to swallow when you consider that DeSean Jackson went a couple picks later to the Eagles and Royal to the Broncos after that. And of course, taking Lil' Dante with Ngata still on the board, and Maybin with Orakpo, Matthews and Cushing available. Depressing. I don't recall who else was available when McKelvin was selected. I just checked. Ryan Clady, maybe the best left tackle in football, was picked by the Broncos immediately after the Bills' undersized nickelback. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fan in San Diego Posted April 6, 2012 Share Posted April 6, 2012 How friggen depressing to see just how poorly the BILLS drafted that year....yikes!!! How can it be that the previous regime could "find" guys like Bell and Johnson and miss so very poorly on nearly every other player in that draft???? This, only makes me all the more resolved to be happy about how football is changing in Buffalo and hopefully their talent level since Nix came to town....let's hope the days of such dismal drafting is behind us!! This draft explains why we havn't been to the playoffs in 12 years. You have to draft well to be a contender team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John from Riverside Posted April 6, 2012 Share Posted April 6, 2012 Yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
San-O Posted April 6, 2012 Share Posted April 6, 2012 Nice post. THX McLuvin doesn't start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dpberr Posted April 6, 2012 Share Posted April 6, 2012 (edited) Loved the Alvin Bowen pick on draft day. Man was a tackling machine at Iowa State. After that knee injury in camp though, he was never the same player. Edited April 6, 2012 by dpberr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RealityCheck Posted April 6, 2012 Share Posted April 6, 2012 I just vomitted a sandwich I didn't even eat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geno Smith's Arm Posted April 6, 2012 Share Posted April 6, 2012 (edited) lolol @ "straight luck" or "winning the lottery". we're not playing roulette here. the bills had a 7th round pick. i'm sure their logic was - "okay, let's take a flier here on a player we think could have a future". and they were right. fortunate? sure. 100% luck or whatever the hell you're saying? no. god no. idk what planet you're on where you don't think the Pats deserve ANY credit for picking Tom Brady. It's not like they stood up at the podium and said "!@#$ all of you - we just got a hall of famer in the 6th round". obviously they had no idea he'd be this good. but i'm sure they saw SOMETHING that led them to making the pick. Of course they saw SOMETHING in Brady. He played for a prominent college, in a prominent conference. There is a pool of players that come out of college each year that have a set of measurable skills, and athleticism that meet the standards of the NFL. Tom Brady was one of them, and it was likely that he was going to get selected eventually, but the limited number of QB openings means QB's often fall. There was a lot more luck than involved in his selection than scouting prowess. Other teams likely had him similarly rated, but NE wanted a QB to develop, and he was on the board. Edited April 6, 2012 by Matthews' Bag Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. WEO Posted April 6, 2012 Share Posted April 6, 2012 How about the 2010 draft. My be early, but I got it at 1.19. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderstealer Posted April 6, 2012 Share Posted April 6, 2012 McKelvin is not an average starter. He's the 4th best CB on the roster right now and will likely be out of the league completely in a few more years. Give him a 2.25 grade, not 3.0. Big bounce back year for LM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JimBob2232 Posted April 6, 2012 Share Posted April 6, 2012 Yeah, gotta be some better scoring here. McKelvin as a 11th overall should not count as much as Stevie or bell in the 7th. One is a disappointment, the others are very good value picks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Numark Posted April 6, 2012 Share Posted April 6, 2012 (edited) Problem with this analysis is stevie is worth .25 more than mckelvin. Sorry but the scoring is flawed and should allow more variability for average and above players. Great idea though. Edited April 6, 2012 by Numark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
papazoid Posted April 6, 2012 Share Posted April 6, 2012 what sticks out to me is the importance of even 7th round picks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vincec Posted April 6, 2012 Share Posted April 6, 2012 Here are my criteria for grading: A 4.0 elite player B+ 3.25 above average NFL player B 3.0 avg starter C+ 2.25 part time starter rotational player C 2.0 depth player D+ 1.25 borderline NFL player F 0.0 out of the league, bust Here is the 2008 draft with my grades (feel free to share your own thoughts) Round Overall 2008 NFL draft Player Position Grade Number grade 1 11 Leodis McKelvin B 3.0 2 41 James Hardy F 0 3 72 Chris Ellis F 0 4 114 Reggie Corner C 2.0 4 132 Derek Fine F 0 5 147 Alvin Bowen F 0 6 179 Xavier Omon F 0 7 219 Demetrius Bell B 3.0 7 224 Steve Johnson B+ 3.25 7 251 Kennard Cox F 0 Overall GPA : 1.125 Grade D+ Conclusion: Steve Johnson kept this draft from being horrible. Even so, it was very bad. Obviously you can't do a straight average for the overall GPA. If you did it like that you'd have to get an elite NFL player in every round to get an A for the overall draft, which is unrealistic. Based on the way you're grading things I suspect that 90% of the teams in the league would be between F and C- for every draft they've every had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts