TEBOW!!! is a Jet! (finally)

[Zulu Cthulhu]

meh, yawn....can't argue facts so just attack those who don't fall into lock-step with your opinion. It's the new American civility.

Dude, what facts? Tebow people claim "all he does is win." that's not a fact, not in the pros. In fact, without bronco fans putting up stupid billboards and booing every single orton incompletion, a smart coach like john fox would have never been put in this situation.

 

I already said your facts about this kid are duly noted - he SHREDDED the SEC in college. Great. I would just add he didn't do it by himself. He had Jesus and Urban Meyer recruited teams on his side as well.

 

As far his pro career, i'll stick by my Fact that a guy completing 50% of his passes in the NFL isn't going to amount to much. Could he improve? Maybe. I hope he does. But every time i see him throw i'm reminded of a broken screen door, and it doesn't look like he's improved on that front at all.

 

lol ok ok I can deal with this post. You are likely correct that he doesn't have the physical gifts to allow him to be a prototypical pocket passer like Brady or Manning. However, he has a lot of physical attributes that really set him apart from anyone else that plays QB in the NFL, and it is those attributes that we Tebow supporters expect will make him successful, not to mention his intangible attributes.

Looks like Cam Newton has a similar skill set to Tebow, but i don't see too many fanboys praising his season so far (except me).

 

Oh, and Cam Newton can throw the ball too. Seems kind of important if you're playing quarterback.

 

Nevermind, i forgot. Cam doesn't have Tebow's "intangibles."

[thebug]

Right now TT is not a very good NFL QB. Will he become one? Who knows? Don't care, because he plays for the Broncos, not the Bills.

 

Curious to see if some of you would defend your own QB with such passion? I would take Fitzy over Tebow any day.

[bills44]

Curious to see if some of you would defend your own QB with such passion?

 

I seriously doubt it.

[Kelly the Dog]

lol ok ok I can deal with this post. You are likely correct that he doesn't have the physical gifts to allow him to be a prototypical pocket passer like Brady or Manning. However, he has a lot of physical attributes that really set him apart from anyone else that plays QB in the NFL, and it is those attributes that we Tebow supporters expect will make him successful, not to mention his intangible attributes.

Fair enough. To me, you are not reading what people say in the posts you're responding to, and just making the assumption that people get their information from ESPN is just foolish. I will leave it at that.

 

This is what I predict is going to be Tebow's downfall as a very good NFL QB. If you want to specifically refute any part of it, with a reasoned opinion, because there are no facts here, please do.

 

1]. Because of about ten disparate small factors in his throwing motion, mechanics and style, by the time that Tebow sees a target, processes the information, makes the throw, and the ball arrives at the intended destination (if it does) the DBs have way too much time to deflect it, intercept it, or kill his receivers. It has nothing to do with arm strength, he has plenty of it. He got away with this in college because the defensive players were not as fast and quick and clever as NFL ones are. If he doesn't get 100% better at this, his chances to succeed plummet. This is the problem most people have with him.

 

Part of it is his mechanics, partly the wind-up and baseball throw, partly the hitch, partly the elongated motion, partly he doesn't make decisions and set the motion going quickly, partly the way he holds the ball, partly because he's so stocky, plus other stuff. That is why it will be hard for him to be a pocket passer, not because he can't throw passes from the pocket like he did in college.

 

2] His footwork to me looks terrible. He's not set when he throws and it hurts his accuracy even when no one is on him. He did this about 3-4 times on Sunday. There was little rush, he had time, he looked right at the WR and then missed him BADLY. That sometimes is never improved by NFL QBs, but it can be improved. The jury is out. You cannot say he will be better at this, you don't know. I don't know if he will improve either. He's terrible now. That's usually something a guy has good fundamentals with or he doesn't, in my experience.

 

3] He is the worst QB I have ever seen taking a snap. Its amazing how bad he is. That can and will probably be perfected over time. I've never seen anyone just drop the ball like he does. He dropped three snaps on Sunday. That should not be a problem long term.

 

4] He has not shown an ability to read defenses and make decisions against NFL defenses. You can say he's done it but you would be wrong. The college stuff doesn't count, unless he played in a pro style offense, and even then it wouldn't count much. Sure he has looked to his second and third receivers before. That is not the same thing at all. He may learn to do this, he may not. If he is not exceptionally quick at it, IMO, it will hurt him more than others because of the aforementioned problems with mechanics and speed. There has been nothing I have seen from watching him a lot to make me believe he will make lightning quick decisions on complex NFL defenses. 95% of QBs can't.

 

5] He can make up a lot of that with scrambles because he is so good at it. I have not at all been impressed so far with his ability to throw on the run since he got to the NFL. He's been bad at that, too. He was very good at that in college, and you don't need to have sound mechanics in the pros to complete balls on the run for the most part. You do need to be accurate. He's going to have to show it. If I had to predict, I think he will be plenty good enough on this. He's had a lot of practice and experience. It's not a given because again, the ball may not get there in time.

 

6] Because of all the reasons listed in #1, I think he is going to get hurt, a lot, especially in the throwing shoulder, because of his motion. Guys are so big and fast, he will start to throw and he will get pounded, and driven into the turf when other QBs would have been able to cover up a quarter second quicker, which you may not think is much but it is. I don't really think, as others have said, he'll get hurt scrambling or running anymore than other running QBs. He's tough as hell and huge.

 

I could go on for awhile. But those are some distinct, specific, reasons that I and I alone think he will struggle as an NFL QB.

 

Because he's a great competitor and winner, and especially runner, I do expect a lot of games to be like the one he just played last week, and he'll win some. He was exciting. He scored with his legs. He scrambled great. He completed a few passes. And he kept his team in the game right until the end.

[Zulu Cthulhu]

+1 kelly. It must be exhausting explaining that all again, but thank you.

[Buffalo Barbarian]

Your comparison of Teblow to Fitz is asinine. Fitz knows how to process information quickly and get the ball out of his hand to the right guy. He can dissect the look of an NFL defense and check to a different play from what was originally called in from the sidelines to take advantage of a particular matchup or defensive weakness. Teblow can do none of that!!!

 

Sometimes Fitz has accuracy issues...especially when he's under duress....but he's light years ahead of Teblow in every aspect of being an NFL QB with the exception of pure athleticism.

 

I again call on any of you Teblow lovers to offer a compelling argument of his skill set that is a predictor of his ultimate success in the NFL as a QB.

 

On behalf of Fitz...I'm insulted!!!

Fitz has been in the league 7 years genius, Tebow is light years ahead of Where Fitz was at the same time of his career.

 

If they do get the #1 pick next year....Your boy Teblow will be outright released....Luck would be their new Franchise QB . Elway and John Fox would be doing the happy dance!!!

 

Sounds good to me, we will pick him up sit behind Fitz a few years and then have next QB of the future

[26CornerBlitz]

Fitz has been in the league 7 years genius, Tebow is light years ahead of Where Fitz was at the same time of his career.

 

 

 

Sounds good to me, we will pick him up sit behind Fitz a few years and then have next QB of the future

 

No, He'd be some NFL team's change of pace QB on a limited basis to spark a team when no game planning has been done for him in order to maximize his in game effectiveness or He'll be a CFL star.

 

If he ever dons a Bills uni...I will literally hurl. His presence on a team is far too divisive.

Edited October 12, 2011 by 26CornerBlitz

[bizell]

Fitz has been in the league 7 years genius, Tebow is light years ahead of Where Fitz was at the same time of his career.

 

 

 

Sounds good to me, we will pick him up sit behind Fitz a few years and then have next QB of the future

and you know this how? it's baseless claims like this and 'ALL HE DOES IS WIN' and 'HE JUST MAKES THE TEAM BETTER' that gets the Tebow-lovers lumped into one category.

[millbank]

fact is none of you know absolutely dick, including the supposed experts , his performance on field will do the talking , not that will stop many of you either way it plays out , far to many of you cannot rise above your bias pro or con.

 

and you know this how? it's baseless claims like this and 'ALL HE DOES IS WIN' and 'HE JUST MAKES THE TEAM BETTER' that gets the Tebow-lovers lumped into one category.

[Garranimal]

and you know this how? it's baseless claims like this and 'ALL HE DOES IS WIN' and 'HE JUST MAKES THE TEAM BETTER' that gets the Tebow-lovers lumped into one category.

And its things like "your boy", Tebow fan-boys and Teblow that make the other side sound as fanatical about him being a failure. If anyone wants to discuss, fine, but don't attack those who don't have your opinion, call names, antagonize or most importantly....end your opinion with a statement that attempts to factually state what will happen in the future. Has anyone here ever been to an actual debate or participated in one...no not a political debate....those stopped being debates about 20 years ago? I mean a real academically judged debate where opinions are nice, but facts are what count. Geez, its a message board, have a spirited conversation, but why does everyone feel they have to be right...and in the absence of being right, be loud and condescending.....??

 

Dude, what facts?

How about these facts....just to name a few.

 

A general comparison of stats from the FIRST THREE STARTS of the following QBs.

 

Passing Yards

 

683 Peyton Manning

651 Tim Tebow

618 Tom Brady

511 Matt Ryan

504 Drew Brees

488 Phillip Rivers

225 Michael Vick

 

 

Passing TDs

 

4 Tim Tebow

3 Drew Brees

3 Phillip Rivers

2 Peyton Manning

2 Matt Ryan

2 Tom Brady

2 Michael Vick

 

 

Rushing Yards

 

199 Tim Tebow

123 Michael Vick

41 Drew Brees

26 Peyton Manning

23 Matt Ryan

12 Phillip Rivers

11 Tom Brady

 

 

Rushing TDs

 

3 Tim Tebow

1 Michael Vick

0 Drew Brees

0 Peyton Manning

0 Matt Ryan

0 Phillip Rivers

0 Tom Brady

 

 

Completion percentage:

 

Peyton Manning 56.8, 63.6, 45.5

Tim Tebow 50, 55.2, 44.4

Tom Brady 56.5, 50, 61.1

Matt Ryan 69.2, 39.4, 66.7

Drew Brees 78.9, 53.6, 54.8

Phillip Rivers 72.7, 71.4, 59.1

Michael Vick 33.3, 40, 65.2

 

 

 

QB Rating

 

Peyton Manning 58.6, 51.1, 39.3

Tim Tebow 100.5, 89.4, 58.2

Tom Brady 79.6, 58.7, 93.4

Matt Ryan 137, 29.6, 120.6

Drew Brees 136.8, 68, 58.7

Phillip Rivers 133.9, 99.1, 75

Michael Vick 70.1, 46, 108.8

 

 

Experience level during 1st three starts

 

R Tim Tebow

R Matt Ryan

R Peyton Manning

R Michael Vick (1st two starts)

2 Drew Brees

2 Tom Brady

3 Phillip Rivers

 

 

 

This is what I predict is going to be Tebow's downfall as a very good NFL QB. If you want to specifically refute any part of it, with a reasoned opinion, because there are no facts here, please do.

 

 

Here is what i got out of your post.....

 

"this is what i think and these are points in my opinion that support what i think"

 

Look at the stats i have posted. How can you possibly look at every single one of those stats and then say....somehow, someway...through apparently only luck, that in his first three starts, he has posted competitively comparable stats in every passing category to a list of QBs who are accepted as NFL caliber? That makes Tebow one lucky blind squirrel. Now, am i saying Tebow will be anywhere near as good as any of those guys.......no...and hell no....but what i am saying is at this point in his career in the NFL, if you put him on a curve compared to other QBs, he is well within a normal expectation of where an accomplished NFL QB should be. Where is the exuberance in this post? He has some of the greatest college passer stats and now has a very small sample of stats in the NFL and they compare favorably to other QBs who have gone on to be successful.

[Dorkington]

I don't follow college ball, so I have no prior knowledge of him other than his pro appearances.

 

I don't understand the hype. He can scramble pretty well, and he's decent sized, but he's not particularly quick. His throws seem somewhat late and they float a bit, and his throwing motion seems a bit long winded.

 

Can he get better? Definitely. Is he better than Orton? I don't really think so... but he might be better for their system or for broken plays.

 

It's interesting that there is so much controversy surrounding the guy, he seems like a mediocre player at the moment. Maybe I'm just ignorant?

[MDH]

 

 

Look at the stats i have posted. How can you possibly look at every single one of those stats and then say....somehow, someway...through apparently only luck, that in his first three starts,

 

It's called sample size. When dealing with an incredibly small sample size (like say 3 games in an NFL career) you can get an incredibly wide range of numbers. With more games played the numbers will move towards ones which will more accurately reflect a player's impact. Perhaps these will get better, perhaps they'll stay the same or maybe they'll even get worse - it's tough to know right now.

 

Go look at the first 3 games of an NFL season or an MLB season - you'll have guys on pace to have 160 receptions and 2000+ yards or guys who are on pace to bat .750. You can't use statistics to make any type of real argument when the sample size is so small.

 

Those numbers might be encouraging, but that's about it.

[CosmicBills]

... this recycled nonsense that the anti-Tebow conspiracy has been propagating for some time now.

 

Look, anyone can make up stuff to make a point. Just because you do that does not make it valid.

Anti-Tebow conspiracy?! HA! :lol: :lol:

 

You wear a tin foil hat to bed, don't you?

[Garranimal]

1]. Because of about ten disparate small factors in his throwing motion, mechanics and style, by the time that Tebow sees a target, processes the information, makes the throw, and the ball arrives at the intended destination (if it does) the DBs have way too much time to deflect it, intercept it, or kill his receivers. It has nothing to do with arm strength, he has plenty of it. He got away with this in college because the defensive players were not as fast and quick and clever as NFL ones are. If he doesn't get 100% better at this, his chances to succeed plummet. This is the problem most people have with him.

 

Part of it is his mechanics, partly the wind-up and baseball throw, partly the hitch, partly the elongated motion, partly he doesn't make decisions and set the motion going quickly, partly the way he holds the ball, partly because he's so stocky, plus other stuff. That is why it will be hard for him to be a pocket passer, not because he can't throw passes from the pocket like he did in college.

 

Now here i will throw some opinion at your opinion, given that the SEC puts more defensive players in the NFL than any other conference, given that Tebow has not only played 4 years in the SEC and then TWO National Championship games against the best of the Big 10 and the Big 12 (Both teams having vaunted defenses at that time) wouldn't it be likely that he would have a statistically high interception percentage...overall and in those games....i mean due to that disastrous throwing motion? Logically, would that not be true....at least a little true? I mean, maybe even just an average number of INTs....certainly not a low percentage of INTs? Right?

 

And yet, in the 2009 BCS Championship Game.....

T. Tebow 18 30 231 60.0 7.7 0 0 2 2

Comp Att Yds Pct Y/A Sack YdsL TD Int

S. Bradford 26 41 256 63.4 6.2 2 18 2 2

 

Is Bradford's throwing motion a problem or is he just inaccurate?

 

Oh, don't forget this stat line....

Florida Rush Yds Avg Lng TD FumL

P. Harvin 9 122 13.6 52 1 0

T. Tebow 22 109 5.0 15 0 03 ranked team....

 

and in the 2010 Sugar Bowl...against the # 3 team in the nation

C/ATT YDS AVG TD INT

T. Tebow 31/35 482 13.8 3 0

T. Pike 27/45 170 3.8 3 0

 

 

ok, i know that is a small sample.....

 

Peyton Manning @ Tennessee

 

Year Attempts Comp Comp % Yards INT TD's Rat.

1994 144 89 61.8 1141 6 11 145.2

1995 380 244 64.2 2954 4 22 146.5

1996 380 243 63.9 3287 12 20 147.7

1997 477 287 60.37 3819 11 37 147.7

Total 1354 851 62.85 11201 33 90 146.8

 

Dan Marino @ Pitt

Year Att Comp Pct. yards TD INT Rat.

1979 222 130 .586 1680 10 9 80.5

1980 224 116 .518 1609 15 14 71.4

1981 380 226 .595 2876 37 23 90.4

1982 378 221 .584 2432 17 23 67.3

Total 1204 693 .576 8597 79 69 77.7

 

Andrew Luck

2009 288 162 56.3 2575 13 4 143.5

2010 372 263 70.7 3338 32 8 170.2

 

Aaron Rodgers

2003 349 215 61.6 2903 19 5 146.6

2004 316 209 66.1 2566 24 8 154.3

 

Jim Kelly

Year Cmp Att Pct Yds TD Int Rate

1979 48 104 46.2 721 5 6 108.7

1980 109 206 52.9 1519 11 7 125.7

1981 168 285 58.9 2403 13 14 135.0

1982 51 81 63.0 585 3 1 133.4

376 676 55.6 5228 32 28 127.9

 

Tim Tebow

 

Year Cmp Att Pct Yds TD Int Rate

2006 22 33 66.7 358 5 1 201.7

2007 234 350 66.9 3286 32 6 172.5

2008 192 298 64.4 2746 30 4 172.4

2009 213 314 67.8 2895 21 5 164.2

Career 661 995 66.4 9285 88 16 170.8

 

 

Oh yeah, college doesn't count......see pro stats above.

 

Dan Marino....69 interceptions??? that guy must suck!

 

It's called sample size. When dealing with an incredibly small sample size (like say 3 games in an NFL career) you can get an incredibly wide range of numbers. With more games played the numbers will move towards ones which will more accurately reflect a player's impact. Perhaps these will get better, perhaps they'll stay the same or maybe they'll even get worse - it's tough to know right now.

 

Go look at the first 3 games of an NFL season or an MLB season - you'll have guys on pace to have 160 receptions and 2000+ yards or guys who are on pace to bat .750. You can't use statistics to make any type of real argument when the sample size is so small.

 

Those numbers might be encouraging, but that's about it.

Well how can you scream sample size on one hand and college stats don't count on the other. All that is left is opinion.....if you throw out every valid piece of evidence, what is left? I can only compare what has happened, everyone else wants to tell me what will happen in the future...which at this point, i have nothing to argue with.

 

 

Again Past performance = best predictor of future performance.

 

Good grief.

Edited October 12, 2011 by Garranimal

[Thoner7]

FYI: The Broncos are on their bye this week, and the Bills next week. AKA We can all tune into the Fish/Tebow game next sunday at 1!!!

 

Again Past performance = best predictor of future performance.

 

Good grief.

 

FWIW he looked good in his starts last year. I think he was over 300 v Houston (albeit they were teh worst D in the league)

[Kelly the Dog]

Now here i will throw some opinion at your opinion, given that the SEC puts more defensive players in the NFL than any other conference, given that Tebow has not only played 4 years in the SEC and then TWO National Championship games against the best of the Big 10 and the Big 12 (Both teams having vaunted defenses at that time) wouldn't it be likely that he would have a statistically high interception percentage...overall and in those games....i mean due to that disastrous throwing motion? Logically, would that not be true....at least a little true? I mean, maybe even just an average number of INTs....certainly not a low percentage of INTs? Right?

 

No. It would not count at all. It is my opinion that no reasonable person would think so.

 

College stats do not relate whatsoever to NFL stats regardless of conference. None. Zero. Not interceptions. Not TDs. Not wins. Not ratings. ZERO. Most guys with fabulous college stats suck in the pros. Some that have pedestrian stats in the best conferences are great in the pros. There is zero correlation. The pro game is completely different. It's inarguable. I guarantee you that Tim Tebow himself thinks that.

 

Besides, I wasnt talking specifically about interceptions, and that would only be a minor portion of his potential problems, and if you had any reading comprehension whatsoever, you would have been able to understand that.

[Garranimal]

No. It would not count at all. It is my opinion that no reasonable person would think so.

 

College stats do not relate whatsoever to NFL stats regardless of conference. None. Zero. Not interceptions. Not TDs. Not wins. Not ratings. ZERO. Most guys with fabulous college stats suck in the pros. Some that have pedestrian stats in the best conferences are great in the pros. There is zero correlation. The pro game is completely different. It's inarguable. I guarantee you that Tim Tebow himself thinks that.

 

Besides, I wasnt talking specifically about interceptions, and that would only be a minor portion of his potential problems, and if you had any reading comprehension whatsoever, you would have been able to understand that.

So you are saying, no reasonable person thinks that college stats have some bearing on pro potential....is that a correct interpretation of what you said?

 

I simply picked interceptions as a result of the problematic delivery you were critiquing.....is that not the potential result of what you are saying? If a DB has all of this extra time to react wouldn't there be increased interceptions?

Edited October 12, 2011 by Garranimal

[CosmicBills]

So you are saying, no reasonable person thinks that college stats have some bearing on pro potential....is that a correct interpretation of what you said?

Yes.

 

In college, even in the vaunted SEC, you're facing off (at BEST) against maybe 4 or 5 all americans a game. Most of the time you're facing guys who aren't close to the same class.

 

On Sundays, you're facing 11 All Americans each and every PLAY. Even the scrubs on an NFL roster are better than most starters you'd face on a college field. There is simply no comparison between college stats and a player's success in the NFL. None.

Edited October 12, 2011 by tgreg99

[Garranimal]

Yes.

 

In college, even in the vaunted SEC, you're facing off (at BEST) against maybe 4 or 5 all americans a game. Most of the time you're facing guys who aren't close to the same class.

 

On Sundays, you're facing 11 All Americans each and every PLAY. Even the scrubs on an NFL roster are better than most starters you'd face on a college field. There is simply no comparison between college stats and a player's success in the NFL. None.

I am sorry guys, to say college performance has zero to do with NFL production is the most absurd, far fetched statement I have EVER seen on this board...and i have seen a bunch. So tell me guys, how are draft boards created? How was Marcell Dareus determined to be a #2 overall pick.

 

Isn't Andrew Luck's college performance exactly what has everyone spooging all over themselves about? How can I even have a discussion with pretzel logic?

 

In the words of Chris Carter, C'mon man!

Edited October 12, 2011 by Garranimal

[papazoid]

Tim Tebow can beat you in a game of connect four....in three moves.