My thoughts on our first 3 picks

[Reed83HOF]

I was going to post this in the why we will draft Floyd, but I wanted to make sure that it didn't get buried.

 

The more I think about it, Floyd will be the pick if Jacksonville or Miami doesn't beat us to him (some of which depends on the Flynn sweepstakes). If Miami does not get Flynn, they might look to trade with the Vikings to take Tannenhill, in case the Browns (or Miami feels they do) have sights on him at #4. After the season ended Buddy said they wanted to resign Stevie and get another WR; if they didn't resign him we were going to get 2. During the season Ralph said we need more "runners" to help Ryan. We brought in Williams and Meachem, didn't get Meachem - Buddy didn't like the value. Now Buddy is saying we are set with WRs, we have 9 under contract who we believe in - it is a Smokescreen. The FA value of WRs and CBs have been really high. We played hardball with Stevie and got a great deal on him. I don't see why wouldn't grab Floyd if he is there lock him up for the max contract (I think 5years). Cheaper than FA and is an impact player.

 

Buddy is on record saying he doesn't like the DL/LBs around pick 10. They talk Hairston up. We have a solid interior line. I just don't see Buddy and Chan placing a big value on an LT the #10 pick. I think they would be fine with placing Chandler over there and having our RB chip the DE to help the LT out. I can see us getting a versatile LT who can play all positions in round 3 (would say Round 2, but read on as to why not) or later.

 

We won't be drafting this high again for awhile (I hope). If Floyd is there I think he is our pick. If he isn't and either Claiborne or Kirkpatrick is there as a CB we might go that route. Our secondary is getting older. McGee is banged up, McKelvin is in a contract year and has been inconsistent at best. In the 4-3 D we will be playing in nickel a lot, against the Pats* especially, meaning only 2 LBs on the field. We have tons of D lineman. Dareus, Williams and Williams is a nightmare for teams. As much as BillinNYC will hate it, we are going to need some help here sooner or later. If Floyd is gone, and one of those CBs is there we will take them.

 

I guess that it will be either Floyd or Claiborne (doubtful) or Kirkpatrick. It depends on our values and who is available at the time and who we think will be there at our next pick. Such as is there a big drop-off between Floyd and Stephen Hill (Gailey should have good intel on the latter) vs Kirkpatrick, Jenkins, Robinson & Gilmore. We will either go WR, CB or CB, WR.

 

I wouldn't rule a trade back into the late first or up in the early second to grab a player who slid in a position we want or if there is a run and we really want a player. I think Williams really changed this draft. Another big pass rusher isn't as big of a need as a shutdown CB or huge fast possession WR; especially with those 2 positions commanding top $$ on the FA market...

[Tcali]

I was going to post this in the why we will draft Floyd, but I wanted to make sure that it didn't get buried.

 

The more I think about it, Floyd will be the pick if Jacksonville or Miami doesn't beat us to him (some of which depends on the Flynn sweepstakes). If Miami does not get Flynn, they might look to trade with the Vikings to take Tannenhill, in case the Browns (or Miami feels they do) have sights on him at #4. After the season ended Buddy said they wanted to resign Stevie and get another WR; if they didn't resign him we were going to get 2. During the season Ralph said we need more "runners" to help Ryan. We brought in Williams and Meachem, didn't get Meachem - Buddy didn't like the value. Now Buddy is saying we are set with WRs, we have 9 under contract who we believe in - it is a Smokescreen. The FA value of WRs and CBs have been really high. We played hardball with Stevie and got a great deal on him. I don't see why wouldn't grab Floyd if he is there lock him up for the max contract (I think 5years). Cheaper than FA and is an impact player.

 

Buddy is on record saying he doesn't like the DL/LBs around pick 10. They talk Hairston up. We have a solid interior line. I just don't see Buddy and Chan placing a big value on an LT the #10 pick. I think they would be fine with placing Chandler over there and having our RB chip the DE to help the LT out. I can see us getting a versatile LT who can play all positions in round 3 (would say Round 2, but read on as to why not) or later.

 

We won't be drafting this high again for awhile (I hope). If Floyd is there I think he is our pick. If he isn't and either Claiborne or Kirkpatrick is there as a CB we might go that route. Our secondary is getting older. McGee is banged up, McKelvin is in a contract year and has been inconsistent at best. In the 4-3 D we will be playing in nickel a lot, against the Pats* especially, meaning only 2 LBs on the field. We have tons of D lineman. Dareus, Williams and Williams is a nightmare for teams. As much as BillinNYC will hate it, we are going to need some help here sooner or later. If Floyd is gone, and one of those CBs is there we will take them.

 

I guess that it will be either Floyd or Claiborne (doubtful) or Kirkpatrick. It depends on our values and who is available at the time and who we think will be there at our next pick. Such as is there a big drop-off between Floyd and Stephen Hill (Gailey should have good intel on the latter) vs Kirkpatrick, Jenkins, Robinson & Gilmore. We will either go WR, CB or CB, WR.

 

I wouldn't rule a trade back into the late first or up in the early second to grab a player who slid in a position we want or if there is a run and we really want a player. I think Williams really changed this draft. Another big pass rusher isn't as big of a need as a shutdown CB or huge fast possession WR; especially with those 2 positions commanding top $$ on the FA market...

 

we need 2 solid LBs still. Our corners are ok --not great of course.Our LBs are awful;a gaping huge bloody problem.We need to prioritize.

We had one of the worst front 7s in football last year.yes a healthy Kyle plus Mario changes that---but that solves half the problem.

LB w 1st round pick.OL or LB 2nd and 3rd.-Unless of course we see a steal at CB in 2 or 3.

[rstencel]

we need 2 solid LBs still. Our corners are ok --not great of course.Our LBs are awful;a gaping huge bloody problem.We need to prioritize.

We had one of the worst front 7s in football last year.yes a healthy Kyle plus Mario changes that---but that solves half the problem.

LB w 1st round pick.OL or LB 2nd and 3rd.-Unless of course we see a steal at CB in 2 or 3.

 

I 2nd this. We really could use a stud lb that can cover and tackle. With the protection a good line would give him that would be huge step into being able to be near top 10 defensively.

[Reed83HOF]

I will be shocked if we take an LB with the 10th pick. You don't even know what we have the LBs seeing that the Offensive Linemen were blowing through our D-line and getting to the second level. The coaches love Sheppard who will man the middle, we have Barnett, Morrison and I am going to guess Moats as well (where Batten and the others fit - we will see). We may add LBs in later rounds, but that is not a glaring need and there aren't any worth the 10th pick. LBs can be found in any round and when it comes to value - they usually don't break the bank when it comes to FA. LBs taken high in the draft almost never live up to their pick; there is always the hype though - think Aaron Curry. I am sure that someone will toss out a few names of others who panned out, but good LBs can be found in any round. A top-flight CB or game breaking WR happen less frequently and cost a $hitload in FA.

 

Besides, we will not be in a base 4-3 very often. You are looking at 4 down lineman on a rotation 1 or 2 LBs and the rest will be DBs. In the last few seasons, Bryan Scott or our nickel CB was always on the field - that will not change.

[rstencel]

I will be shocked if we take an LB with the 10th pick. You don't even know what we have the LBs seeing that the Offensive Linemen were blowing through our D-line and getting to the second level. The coaches love Sheppard who will man the middle, we have Barnett, Morrison and I am going to guess Moats as well (where Batten and the others fit - we will see). We may add LBs in later rounds, but that is not a glaring need and there aren't any worth the 10th pick. LBs can be found in any round and when it comes to value - they usually don't break the bank when it comes to FA. LBs taken high in the draft almost never live up to their pick; there is always the hype though - think Aaron Curry. I am sure that someone will toss out a few names of others who panned out, but good LBs can be found in any round. A top-flight CB or game breaking WR happen less frequently and cost a $hitload in FA.

 

Besides, we will not be in a base 4-3 very often. You are looking at 4 down lineman on a rotation 1 or 2 LBs and the rest will be DBs. In the last few seasons, Bryan Scott or our nickel CB was always on the field - that will not change.

 

I understand what you are saying, but my reasoning is that we already have mid round type talent at lb. If there is an elite type lb available at 10, that can both cover and stop the run, our defense would benifit greatly from that. Currently we have several lb's that struggle in coverage against TE's and are capable against the run if dl play allows them to be. Most top defenses have a dominate LB behind a stud dlineman. If we could get someone to fill that bill, I would be very happy.

 

If there is a LB of that type available at 10, I think its the right call. Need one dominate unit to rely on in NFL, and i think our defense could be the key with that type of addition.

Edited March 17, 2012 by rstencel

[ndirish1978]

we need 2 solid LBs still. Our corners are ok --not great of course.Our LBs are awful;a gaping huge bloody problem.We need to prioritize.

We had one of the worst front 7s in football last year.yes a healthy Kyle plus Mario changes that---but that solves half the problem.

LB w 1st round pick.OL or LB 2nd and 3rd.-Unless of course we see a steal at CB in 2 or 3.

 

Our CBs are old and we're not re-signing McKelvin next year when his rookie contract ends. So, we're gonna need to pick up at least 2 CBs in this offseason.

[rstencel]

Our CBs are old and we're not re-signing McKelvin next year when his rookie contract ends. So, we're gonna need to pick up at least 2 CBs in this offseason.

 

Seems like we get 2 every draft, and that often the ufa's outplay them. Not saying doesnt hurt to draft any, but lets try and get some depth in other areas as well.

[playman]

this year i really can see a trade down if there is a partner. buddy said hed like to have 10 picks. we have 9 now. so unless there is a player he REALLY wants we wont pick @ 10

[xsoldier54]

we need 2 solid LBs still. Our corners are ok --not great of course.Our LBs are awful;a gaping huge bloody problem.We need to prioritize.

We had one of the worst front 7s in football last year.yes a healthy Kyle plus Mario changes that---but that solves half the problem.

LB w 1st round pick.OL or LB 2nd and 3rd.-Unless of course we see a steal at CB in 2 or 3.

There is absolutely zero chance that the team will draft LB's with each of their first three picks. It just isn't going to happen. I say probably the grab a LB in rd 2, BPA in round 1 and OT in rd 3.

[atlbillsfan1975]

Everything i have read has Buddy saying he likes the OT in this draft.

Says he thinks OT is deep this year in the first round. Same interview he said he doesn't like the DE/OLB class for first rounders.

 

The no signing of Bell has got to make you wonder.

Plus they have zero OT behind Pears and Hairston that are worth a crap. Talk about an area in need of some starters/depth.

Pears is solid, but Hairston looks like he is going to be way better. Why not take a LT make Hairston starting RT and let Pears rotate/ have a great line in place for the next 5 years. provided you can extend Levitre and Wood.

having a great Oline will go a long way into making this entire team look better.

Chan used smoke and mirrors last year to make this line look solid. But defenses started to figure out his tendencies due to his lack of time for his qb. I think if he had a great oline his offense would really click.

[Tcali]

I will be shocked if we take an LB with the 10th pick. You don't even know what we have the LBs seeing that the Offensive Linemen were blowing through our D-line and getting to the second level. The coaches love Sheppard who will man the middle, we have Barnett, Morrison and I am going to guess Moats as well (where Batten and the others fit - we will see). We may add LBs in later rounds, but that is not a glaring need and there aren't any worth the 10th pick. LBs can be found in any round and when it comes to value - they usually don't break the bank when it comes to FA. LBs taken high in the draft almost never live up to their pick; there is always the hype though - think Aaron Curry. I am sure that someone will toss out a few names of others who panned out, but good LBs can be found in any round. A top-flight CB or game breaking WR happen less frequently and cost a $hitload in FA.

 

Besides, we will not be in a base 4-3 very often. You are looking at 4 down lineman on a rotation 1 or 2 LBs and the rest will be DBs. In the last few seasons, Bryan Scott or our nickel CB was always on the field - that will not change.

 

even before Kyle was out--when we were actually holding our own on the D line without people blowing through--our D was still ghastly. And that was MAINLY due to our LBs. -I guess we just see things differently.With the 4-3 coming we cut down on some of the problem--but as far as I am concerned-until one of the young guys shows something--and I saw little to nothing from them last year(Sheppard is a decent run stuffer -but is a joke out in open space)--we have only Barnett as a legit NFL starter at the moment.That leaves 2 spots to fill.

 

There is absolutely zero chance that the team will draft LB's with each of their first three picks. It just isn't going to happen. I say probably the grab a LB in rd 2, BPA in round 1 and OT in rd 3.

 

I didn't say or suggest that we draft LBs with each of the first 3 picks.

[Kelly the Dog]

The Bills are not going to draft a guy at #10 based on position of need. There doesn't seem to be any 4-3 LB worthy of the #10 pick. Guys like Upshaw are 4-3 DEs and it's hard for me to imagine they will draft one.

 

The whole things revolves on the grades that Nix and the scouts have on 4-5 guys. Nix is very likely to take the BPA regardless of position unless he is a RB, interior OL, and maybe DT. The thing is, the guys that will be available at #10 who are worthy of being a #10 pick are not likely DE, CB or QB.

 

To me, it all depends on what grades Nix and the scouts put on 4-5 guys: Reiff, Martin, Floyd, Hill and Tannehill. If they really like either of the two LTs at #10 and he is available, I think they take him immediately. We have no idea what grades they have on these guys though. If they don't have great grades on the LT and Floyd is rated high, he is a likely choice. Nix wants a big fast guy at #2 WR. Floyd and Hill fit that bill, regardless of whether you or I think Hill is worthy of #10. Nix will not care. If they love Tennehill at 10 and think he can be a franchise QB, they will take him. I very much doubt they do though.

[xsoldier54]

even before Kyle was out--when we were actually holding our own on the D line without people blowing through--our D was still ghastly. And that was MAINLY due to our LBs. -I guess we just see things differently.With the 4-3 coming we cut down on some of the problem--but as far as I am concerned-until one of the young guys shows something--and I saw little to nothing from them last year(Sheppard is a decent run stuffer -but is a joke out in open space)--we have only Barnett as a legit NFL starter at the moment.That leaves 2 spots to fill.

 

 

 

I didn't say or suggest that we draft LBs with each of the first 3 picks.

"LB w 1st round pick.OL or LB 2nd and 3rd." Looks like you did to me. LB w 1st OL or LB 2nd and 3rd. Looks to me like you are suggesting we could pick 3 LB's with the first three picks.

[biggerdaddynj]

BPA at 10 will be one of the OTs which happens to be what we need most (we're not resigning Bell and we're not set with anyone on our current roster playing LT which BTW happens to be a pretty important position). There's no 43 OLB who is worth a 10 and at ILB Buddy has committed to Sheppard so no Kuechly or Hightower. If Claiborne somehow falls then he might be the pick but I can't see the Bucs passing on him. Based on Buddy's remarks about the Bills current WRs after the Mario signing (he didn't seem too concerned), I just don't think we're going with Floyd at 10. Reiff or Martin = no worries at LT for the next 5-7 years. That's a nice thought!

[Kelly the Dog]

BPA at 10 will be one of the OTs which happens to be what we need most (we're not resigning Bell and we're not set with anyone on our current roster playing LT which BTW happens to be a pretty important position). There's no 43 OLB who is worth a 10 and at ILB Buddy has committed to Sheppard so no Kuechly or Hightower. If Claiborne somehow falls then he might be the pick but I can't see the Bucs passing on him. Based on Buddy's remarks about the Bills current WRs after the Mario signing (he didn't seem too concerned), I just don't think we're going with Floyd at 10. Reiff or Martin = no worries at LT for the next 5-7 years. That's a nice thought!

1] Nix's comments about WR were in regard to FA, not the draft.

2] If Nix and the scouts have Reiff and Martin rated as, say, a #15-20 choice rather than closer to #10, they just won't take one of them even if they know we need a LT.

[Cap'nCrunch]

There is a lot of time until the draft for OBD to speak about who they like now that they are "out of the FA business". Even if a trade down is executed, there are some 1st round quality LTs. If a trade down doesn't happen, we may end up with an elite 1st round LT, either Reiff or Martin. It would be great if Kalil dropped to 10 since the Bills drafted his father in the early 80s.

[NeverOutNick]

If we were going to stay with all of our picks and not trade up/down (and we don't get Bell back) heres 1 scenario I'd prefer in the draft:

 

Rd 1 WR Michael Floyd (I'm ok with Hill as well if Nix is but would like to trade down for him)- Great compliment to SJ to stretch the field and get defenses to respect the pass more.

Rd 2 OT Bobby Massie (don't think Glenn or Adams fall to us...Zebrie Sanders would work too) - Hard working/intelligent kid who plays well at LT but needs a little work

Rd 3 CB Josh Norman (think this is BPA and don't think a good enough OLB will be there like Lavonte David...wouldn't mind Bentley) - Small school ball-hawking CB who plays great man to man

Rd 4 LB Sean Spense (Bruce irvin would be great here but someone will take early because of speed...nigel bradham would work too) - Need depth at OLB

Rd 4 DE Jack Bequette - (Chandler Jones is another good option) Hard working big DE who played in the SEC (which buddy loves)

Rd 5 QB Russell Wilson - A QB that Chan can make work in his offense in case Fitz goes down

Rd 5 LB Vontaze Burfict - Why not take a chance on a guy who could end up being a steal I think our locker room is filled with good guys (plus Barnett is working with him)

 

The ultimate scenario would be for us to take Martin/Reiff at 10 and have Stephen Hill fall to us in the 2nd but the more likely scenario is above if we're playing it safe

[Reed83HOF]

1] Nix's comments about WR were in regard to FA, not the draft.

2] If Nix and the scouts have Reiff and Martin rated as, say, a #15-20 choice rather than closer to #10, they just won't take one of them even if they know we need a LT.

 

#2 is exactly where I see us being. In order for a trade down to happen, someone would have to be there that another team covets, unless someone slips (Richardson perhaps; Tannenhill doubtful -will be gone) I don't see it happening.

 

I even wonder if Floyd will be there, I could see Miami (if they get a QB in FA) or Jacksonville (Top flight WR for Gabbert) scooping him up before us. I wonder if Holmgren would even try sticking it to the Rams and taking Blackmon at 4.

 

even before Kyle was out--when we were actually holding our own on the D line without people blowing through--our D was still ghastly. And that was MAINLY due to our LBs. -I guess we just see things differently.With the 4-3 coming we cut down on some of the problem--but as far as I am concerned-until one of the young guys shows something--and I saw little to nothing from them last year(Sheppard is a decent run stuffer -but is a joke out in open space)--we have only Barnett as a legit NFL starter at the moment.That leaves 2 spots to fill.

 

I think it is hard to rate our entire defense considering the absence of a pass rush. Holding the line is one thing, but being able to play while pressure is occurring and there is a collapsing pocket is another. Our line with Mario really has the ability to make everyone else better. By all means if there is a quality Defensive player in the draft that is rated higher than an offensive player by all means take him. I also worry about McGee's durability (So do the Bills since they restructured his deal) and McKelvin I have no idea if he will get it our not. I am not anti-linebacker by any means. I just would rather see us grab an impact WR, CB and LT before. Mario will help get the D off the field, now we just have to make sure the offense can stay on the field. Next season if our LBs are terrible, we will now exactly what we need to do and they don't cost a fortune in FA and can be had in the mid-to late first round.

 

We all see the same holes and needs, our approaches to addressing the needs are just different.

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

I think there may be a solid chance that Nix trades down in the order for more second round picks. If someone wants Tannehill and hasn't taken him by them we might get some bargaining power.

 

That said, if not, I think it's going to come down to the best player available at one of the many positions that we could take. I personally think that DE is going to be sewed up for now with Mario. OT is a position of concern with all the injuries we had last year. McGee is banged up and I doubt we are going to renew McKelvin, so I don't think that a CB is off the table. I would love to see Floyd as a #2 receiver to work with SJ, but I've heard reports that Nix thinks receivers are deep in the draft so he may wait for round 2.

[JPS]

Our CBs are old and we're not re-signing McKelvin next year when his rookie contract ends. So, we're gonna need to pick up at least 2 CBs in this offseason.

They are not resigning McKelvin? I didn't know that.