Myth: 30+ Athlete = "Over the Hill"

[Got_Wood]

Over the past 5-10 years the NFL has changed. Younger players have been given more money based on their potential to be great players before they prove their actual worth. Before this season, 1st round rookies were seeing more money than any proven veteran player had EVER seen. Much of this trend had to do with money. Crafty agents were finding ways to get paid big money early in players' careers, instead of waiting to see their clients earn the fruits of their labor. Why did a guy like Aaron Maybin get a big paycheck when guys like Jabari Greer and Nate Clements were shown the door??

 

Is a 30 year old athlete really too old? Think about the players the Bills have let walk out the door because they were "too old". Pat Williams, Ruben Brown, London Fletcher, Antoine Winfield, Takeo Spikes, etc. These guys went on to play many more successful years for their respective teams.

 

So is Fred Jackson too old to re-sign? Is a guy like Brandon Lloyd too old to bring in? I think not. If you have a shot at a talented player, you take it.

[RyanC883]

Over the past 5-10 years the NFL has changed. Younger players have been given more money based on their potential to be great players before they prove their actual worth. Before this season, 1st round rookies were seeing more money than any proven veteran player had EVER seen. Much of this trend had to do with money. Crafty agents were finding ways to get paid big money early in players' careers, instead of waiting to see their clients earn the fruits of their labor. Why did a guy like Aaron Maybin get a big paycheck when guys like Jabari Greer and Nate Clements were shown the door??

 

Is a 30 year old athlete really too old? Think about the players the Bills have let walk out the door because they were "too old". Pat Williams, Ruben Brown, London Fletcher, Antoine Winfield, Takeo Spikes, etc. These guys went on to play many more successful years for their respective teams.

 

So is Fred Jackson too old to re-sign? Is a guy like Brandon Lloyd too old to bring in? I think not. If you have a shot at a talented player, you take it.

 

I agree. Hopefully we can snag Reggie Wayne or a pass rusher.

[Kelly the Dog]

Agreed. Plus the average NFL lifespan for RB stats and other players is really misleading. It's low because so many suck and are cut after 1-2 years. Good and great ones play for 8-10-12 years.

[atlbillsfan1975]

Only position i disagree with is RB.

I pulled up some stats about month ago when everyone was talking about paying Jackson.

Very very few RB play well into there 30's. Only a handfull have 1,000 yd+ seasons.

And usually when they do decline it is a very quick drop off.

Even Thurman dropped very quickly after 30. At 30y/o he rushed for 1033 at 31y/o he went for 643. and then down to 381 at 32y/o.

And there are plenty of guys like this.

Kickers, QBs, even offensive lineman can be very roductive into their mid 30's

[KD in CA]

Only position i disagree with is RB.

I pulled up some stats about month ago when everyone was talking about paying Jackson.

Very very few RB play well into there 30's. Only a handfull have 1,000 yd+ seasons.

And usually when they do decline it is a very quick drop off.

Even Thurman dropped very quickly after 30. At 30y/o he rushed for 1033 at 31y/o he went for 643. and then down to 381 at 32y/o.

And there are plenty of guys like this.

 

I agree to a point, but a lot of that has to do with the mileage, not just age. If you pile up 2500 carries by the time you hit 30 (like Thurman), than a sharp decline should not come as a surprise.

 

But FJ has only played 4+ years, and half of those as a backup. IMO, he is a very 'young' 30.

[shibuya]

 

 

But FJ has only played 4+ years, and half of those as a backup. IMO, he is a very 'young' 30.

 

 

FJ has years in the arena league and NFL Europe.. Those years do count.. They take their toll no matter what league

 

But I agree FJ is a young 30

 

 

As for the over 30 debate.. the odds say most decline after passing 30.

Edited October 18, 2011 by shibuya

[Ramius]

Good post. QBs and linemen (on both sides) can play well into their late 30s and do it at a high level. Positions that rely on pure athleticism, like RB, WR, and CB, are the positions that you start seeing the big drop offs as a player gets into his 30s.

[WVUFootball29]

I agree to a point, but a lot of that has to do with the mileage, not just age. If you pile up 2500 carries by the time you hit 30 (like Thurman), than a sharp decline should not come as a surprise.

 

But FJ has only played 4+ years, and half of those as a backup. IMO, he is a very 'young' 30.

 

glad to see I'm not the only one thinking this way. He does not have the touches that an average 30 star RB has had. Yes you can say the time in other leagues count, but the players and the amount of games pale in comparison to an NFL grind. In NFL age, I would say Fred Jackson is the equivalent of a 27 or 28 year old back and still has 2 or 3 good seasons in him before you see a serious athletic decline.

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

Only position i disagree with is RB.

I pulled up some stats about month ago when everyone was talking about paying Jackson.

Very very few RB play well into there 30's. Only a handfull have 1,000 yd+ seasons.

And usually when they do decline it is a very quick drop off.

Even Thurman dropped very quickly after 30. At 30y/o he rushed for 1033 at 31y/o he went for 643. and then down to 381 at 32y/o.

And there are plenty of guys like this.

Kickers, QBs, even offensive lineman can be very roductive into their mid 30's

 

agreed re. RB's. They go from great to out of the league in a matter of a year sometimes.

 

There's a reason that guys like Shaun Alexander, Clinton Portis, Larry Johnson, etc. were looking for jobs only a year or two after being removed from greatness.

[Got_Wood]

I agree to a point, but a lot of that has to do with the mileage, not just age. If you pile up 2500 carries by the time you hit 30 (like Thurman), than a sharp decline should not come as a surprise.

 

But FJ has only played 4+ years, and half of those as a backup. IMO, he is a very 'young' 30.

 

I agree 100%. We should lock him down for a few more years. Great player, and great for team chemistry.

 

And if we have an opportunity to get a guy like Brandon Lloyd, I really hope we wouldn't avoid him because of age. He's got 3-5 good years left in him. That said, the opportunity has passed with Lloyd. But guys like Reggie Wayne and Osi Umenyiora could help out this team a ton.

 

The draft is a crap shoot. As we've seen with Mike Williams, Donte Whitner, and Aaron Maybin, these guys can end up being downright bad for the team. Trading draft picks shouldn't be viewed as too risky.

[eme123]

I don't agree one bit. In a salary cap league it makes no sense to spend a boat load of money on an elite talent that is on the decline. I would much rather buy low and sell high than buy high and sell for nothing.

 

Draft players that can come in, learn fast, and start within 2 years. They are younger, stronger, faster and will progress as opposed to decline. A team that gets in the habit of this will be a good team for a long time.

 

Tying up all your money into a player that is regressing and taking opportunities away from the youth makes no sense.

[Wraith]

I don't agree one bit. In a salary cap league it makes no sense to spend a boat load of money on an elite talent that is on the decline. I would much rather buy low and sell high than buy high and sell for nothing.

Paying an unproven early draft pick isn't exactly "buying low."

[Meathead]

Only position i disagree with is RB.

i hate to exaggerate but ive said it a billion times - rbs hit the wall, case closed

 

of all positions on the field, rb is the one you have the least ability to adapt to an aging body that is inevitably going to slow down. you can either burst through the hole and power through arm tackles to get to the second level or you cant - theres no opportunity to adjust to those rigid requirements

 

and dont give me any crap about freddie having fewer nfl carries than normal feature backs his age: if you could put walter peyton in a ziplock bag from age fifteen to thirty and not play him at all he would STILL hit the wall no more than two years after that - if youre lucky. the human body changes its structure and you simply dont have the muscle explosion you need any longer. thus, face meet brick wall cough shaun alexnder cough thomas jones cough pretty much every rb ever

 

the bills should give freddie some kind of bonus just to thank him for outperforming his current contract and to try to keep him happy the next two seasons. but if he thinks hes getting a franchise type deal at this stage, thanks freddie, we love you, but good bye. say hello to thomas jones when you bump into him at the cry myself to sleep it took me until thirty to kick ass in the nfl party. sux for you but thats showbiz

Edited October 18, 2011 by Meathead

[San Jose Bills Fan]

Players are individuals.

 

I can name numerous players at each position who had unexpectedly short careers (Tony Boselli, Jonas Jennings off the top of my head) just as I can name players with unexpectedly long careers (Clay Matthews, Sr., Darrell Green, Terry Allen).

 

While it might have a correlation to the position played, my opinion is that it's more the individual than the position.

[NoSaint]

Players are individuals.

 

I can name numerous players at each position who had unexpectedly short careers (Tony Boselli, Jonas Jennings off the top of my head) just as I can name players with unexpectedly long careers (Clay Matthews, Sr., Darrell Green, Terry Allen).

 

While it might have a correlation to the position played, my opinion is that it's more the individual than the position.

 

 

i would say you can generally ballpark what a position normally does barring major injury, and that individuals may vary from that but generally there are positions that take bigger hits, and positions that rely on speed more than smarts.

 

a rb relies on speed, and takes huge hits. it makes sense they are the first to tail off.

 

 

 

 

as for fred.... i think hes a young 30 as far as carries, but there are certain physical traits that are part of human aging and not just tackles. i will also say hes had 4 years of carries in college, and arena/europe carries professionally. hes also taking hits in practice and still beating up his joints in the gym. what kind of cartilage is left in his knees at this point is pretty hard for fans to debate.

 

hes also on pace for about 350 touches this season.... thats worrisome long term. below is an article about high touches, granted two years old and geared towards fantasy football, but the numbers are crazy when you look at them - 370 touches and 17 out of 23 players had major breakdowns. 350, and its still a real touchy situation. it also talks about backs that see a large increase in workload, such as freddy is on pace for. its not the end all article, but it was interesting to see the numbers.

 

http://www.footballdocs.com/running_back_carries.html

 

i like freddy, but i also worry about him for the future. its amazing how fast these guys can hit walls, regardless of age.

Edited October 19, 2011 by NoSaint

[billsfan89]

Running Backs expire at the age of 30 that's just a fact... BUT that's only the atypical lifespan of a back that starts their careers at the age of 22-25. Most backs by the age of 25 know if they are starters (Or at least if they will be getting significant playing time).

 

But for Freddie he didn't enter the NFL till he was 25 and he didn't get to play until he was 26. On top of that he didn't get to play significant snaps (Over 100) till the age of 27. He also didn't get full time snaps until he was 28 years old (200+ snaps).

 

The guy has only been playing in the NFL at a meaningful level for 4 years. At age 30 Freddie only has the wear and tear of a 26-27 year old RB if that. Not saying Freddie can play for 4+ years. BUT he should be good for another 2 seasons past this one if you think carries and play time is much more accurate of how long RB's last.

[1B4IDie]

Over the past 5-10 years the NFL has changed. Younger players have been given more money based on their potential to be great players before they prove their actual worth. Before this season, 1st round rookies were seeing more money than any proven veteran player had EVER seen. Much of this trend had to do with money. Crafty agents were finding ways to get paid big money early in players' careers, instead of waiting to see their clients earn the fruits of their labor. Why did a guy like Aaron Maybin get a big paycheck when guys like Jabari Greer and Nate Clements were shown the door??

 

Is a 30 year old athlete really too old? Think about the players the Bills have let walk out the door because they were "too old". Pat Williams, Ruben Brown, London Fletcher, Antoine Winfield, Takeo Spikes, etc. These guys went on to play many more successful years for their respective teams.

 

So is Fred Jackson too old to re-sign? Is a guy like Brandon Lloyd too old to bring in? I think not. If you have a shot at a talented player, you take it.

There is no myth that 30+ atheletes are over the hill.

The myth doesn't exist. Anyone that thinks it exists is mistaken.

 

The myth you're most likely wanting to discuss pertains to RBs

 

30+ RBs are over the hill, which tends to be true more often than false.

Edited October 19, 2011 by Why So Serious?

[NoSaint]

There is no myth that 30+ atheletes are over the hill.

The myth doesn't exist. Anyone that thinks it exists is mistaken.

 

The myth you're most likely wanting to discuss pertains to RBs

 

30+ RBs are over the hill, which tends to be true more often than false.

I think the OP was confusing "over the hill" with "don't give huge longterm deals."

 

It's very rare a guy 30+ becomes a free agent as a superstar without some real question marks. Either health or personality is normally an issue if a team is letting them walk. As for his list - Reuben wasn't a star when he left, and no one saw 350lbs pat Williams knees holding out to be the oldest defensive player in the league. At 38 being the oldest defensive player speaks volumes to why you don't sign guys over 30 to big longterm deals. Doesn't mean they can't play a few more years but it's rare to cross 35. As for takeo, didn't it take him years and multiple teams to get back to form. I think Fletcher was a value choice- pay a second round LB a tenth the price and get similar play. Age may have been a factor but not deciding in my opinion.

[1B4IDie]

I think the OP was confusing "over the hill" with "don't give huge longterm deals."

 

It's very rare a guy 30+ becomes a free agent as a superstar without some real question marks. Either health or personality is normally an issue if a team is letting them walk. As for his list - Reuben wasn't a star when he left, and no one saw 350lbs pat Williams knees holding out to be the oldest defensive player in the league. At 38 being the oldest defensive player speaks volumes to why you don't sign guys over 30 to big longterm deals. Doesn't mean they can't play a few more years but it's rare to cross 35. As for takeo, didn't it take him years and multiple teams to get back to form. I think Fletcher was a value choice- pay a second round LB a tenth the price and get similar play. Age may have been a factor but not deciding in my opinion.

It's not rare to have super star players between the ages of 30-35.

You just pointed out a handful.

Contracts smoncontracts. I don't believe the OP or anyone else is talking contracts.

Even so QBs, WRs, D-Linemen, O-lineman "superstars" all get pretty monster Contracts that take them from their late twenties to their early 30s.

Now you're right that a 34 year old "superstar" probably isn't going to get another big contract.

But there isn't a "myth" that any one of them is "over the hill" and not going to perform past 30.

 

That 30 number is attached to RBs.

[dayman]

Just look at the way Fred runs. IMO he can do that for another 3 years. Give the man a 4 year contract for substantial sum. He is this team.