CosmicBills Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 (edited) Food for thought with regards to Newton or Gabbert. A safe defensive tackle can't turn around a team as much as a top young quarterback. Edited April 16, 2011 by tgreg99 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scrappy Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 CLiff notes version: There is no safe pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CosmicBills Posted April 16, 2011 Author Share Posted April 16, 2011 CLiff notes version: There is no safe pick. Sure. But the interesting part of the article is the notion that since there are no safe picks, and since no other position can turn a team's fortunes around faster than a QB, it's better to gamble on a QB early even if there's a sure fire talent at OL, DL, DE, LB. Even if that QB is a gamble. I still don't see the Bills taking Gabbert or Newton next week though. But it's interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hammie65 Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 If Carolina doesn't take Newton, the Bills could very possibly take him and I'd be OK with that as long as we address the defensive needs immediately after that. Personally I see Cam going #1 to Carolina, so we may be looking at Gabbert or Defense as the choice to make. My gut tells me the Bills are thinking QB at #3 so they will make a lot of people happy and a lot of people angry if they do. It will also be interesting to see what happens when Free Agency is opened if the the CBA is ever resolved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Barbarian Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 Gabbert is being fitted for his #11 Bills jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 Food for thought with regards to Newton or Gabbert. He lost me with this sentence: "With 59 percent of last season's plays leaguewide designed for the pass, a great quarterback can cover for any hole on a team" Somehow I thought pass plays involved strong protection from the OL and quality WR who can get open, haul it in, and hang on to the ball. I didn't realize the QB can block, catch his own passes, and stop the other team's O so he doesn't have to score every time his O gets the ball. Silly me. Example given: draft Matt Ryan, Falcons go to the playoffs. Um, and go home early, until they build up their Defense? I will say that Henne exemplifies the problem of being wrong about a key player - whatever round he's taken. If you draft a guy and say "he's our man", you aren't developing someone else. So 1st round or 3rd round, be sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bangarang Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 (edited) Gabbert is being fitted for his #11 Bills jersey. Over Roscoe's dead body. Edited April 16, 2011 by Bangarang Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LynchMob23 Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 (edited) Do not forget, a few days later, Clayton followed up with this: My link Year 1 of the Elway regime should focus on rebuilding the credibility of a once-proud franchise. Drafting a future Hall of Fame quarterback such as Elway is the fastest ticket to rebuilding a franchise, but this class of draftable quarterbacks doesn't hold the solution. Auburn's Cam Newton may be the only quarterback with elite potential, but it will take time for him to develop, and he will probably go to the Carolina Panthers with the first pick. Blaine Gabbert of Missouri might be a better version of Mark Sanchez, but many don't believe he will become an elite quarterback. It would help the Broncos more to take cornerback Patrick Peterson or defensive tackle Marcell Dareus to give new head coach John Fox a top defensive player. Fox isn't the kind of coach who likes to be burdened with rushing a rookie quarterback into service. We saw that last year when the Panthers took Jimmy Clausen in the second round. How can he say the Bills MUST draft a QB this year at 3 one day and then follow that up by saying that there are no franchise quarterbacks in the draft? Edited April 16, 2011 by LynchMob23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cjatcreek07 Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 Personally, I don't feel like there is a Matt Ryan or a Sam Bradford in this draft. That being said, our defensive front 7 needs the most help on this team so we should focus on that in this year's draft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thoner7 Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 (edited) This assumes that each players chance of success is equal. I would say a guy like Cam Jodarn has a 90% chance of being a very good starter, while a guy like Newtons is more like 30%. Its gotta be 60% or more for me to gamble on a QB. Edited April 17, 2011 by Thoner7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sllib olaffub Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 The more I think about it, the more I believe at #3 you need to get a player, especially being as bad as we've been, who is going to be able to come in and be a force on the field, take over a game, and just make a real impact week in and out - and, as much as defensive guys like Bruce Smith, Lawrence Taylor, Reggie White, were capable of doing that, there are many more QB's who've been able to; so, I think if a player has just taken over games in high school and in college, and is projected to possibly continue to dominate, then that is what you're looking for. Who is that type in this class? I'd say Newton - if the Bills think he can handle the mental parts of the game, then I think he is the no-brain pick, if available, and if not, then I think Fairley seems to be the next case, or Peterson... or Quinn, if they believe he's as capable. Dareus wouldn't be bad either, but all in all, I believe a guy like Newton, best case scenario, will be able to single handedly make the team potentially a playoff team, year in and out, if he continues to play as dominantly as he has. I guess we'll see, and by the looks of the top of this year's draft, it seems we really can't go wrong in the first few rounds, when it comes to getting better as a team. It's just that I'd rather take a risk and get elite, once-in-a-lifetime, hall of fame talent, if we have the chance, than go "safe" and secure, and gradually get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Hindsight Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 Do not forget, a few days later, Clayton followed up with this: My link How can he say the Bills MUST draft a QB this year at 3 one day and then follow that up by saying that there are no franchise quarterbacks in the draft? Its called ratings... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ramius Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 Food for thought with regards to Newton or Gabbert. Thats fine, but the debate is whether or not either one of those guys are franchise guys. I don't have much faith in either of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
....lybob Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 What they don't talk about is how you are absolutely screwed if you take a QB in the first 3 picks and he busts- you're going to give him 3 years even if he doesn't show squat and you are going to give him 5 years if he shows anything- when teams invest that much money they can't walk away, Alex Smith, Alex Smith, Alex Smith. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
papazoid Posted April 23, 2011 Share Posted April 23, 2011 Where are the safe picks? Using a formula based on longevity and achievement, the risk inherent in certain positions -- and the lack of risk in others -- can be assessed. Since the 2002 draft, the first with the NFL's current 32-team setup, the lowest risks in the first round have been defensive backs, linebackers and tight ends. http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/draft2011/news/story?id=6389648 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Astrobot Posted April 23, 2011 Share Posted April 23, 2011 Where are the safe picks? Using a formula based on longevity and achievement, the risk inherent in certain positions -- and the lack of risk in others -- can be assessed. Since the 2002 draft, the first with the NFL's current 32-team setup, the lowest risks in the first round have been defensive backs, linebackers and tight ends. http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/draft2011/news/story?id=6389648 Which means Von Miller/ Peterson with Kyle Rudolph / Mason Foster / Brooks Reed / Aaron Williams as 2nd round low-risk. Both Miller and Peterson are 90%-plus successes guaranteed. In that second-round group, I'd put Foster and Reed at 90%, with Rudolph / Williams a little lower. Wouldn't it make sense to go OLB-ILB given that the upside of Newton/Gabbert is 50-50? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Talley56 Posted April 23, 2011 Share Posted April 23, 2011 A safe defensive tackle can't turn around a team as much as a top young quarterback. I don't know, I'd say the Lions played better after drafting Ndomukong Suh than they did after picking Matthew Stafford. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sisyphean Bills Posted April 23, 2011 Share Posted April 23, 2011 The problem with picking safe is probably what someone means when they use the term "picking safe". In other words, when I read draftniks using this term, they aren't usually referring to an outright bust of a pick, but they are talking about a Pro Bowl player that was selected by a team that went from bad to middle of the pack. There is nothing wrong with adding Pro Bowlers to your roster, IMHO. (If only the Bills could.) On the other hand, a team does have to take reasonable, calculated chances and dare to be great in order to get to the top. (That does not just mean swinging for the fences on freak athletes in the first round either.) Picking foolishly and recklessly, such as ignoring the tape of what a player actually did in college and staring at his combine numbers and how nice a smile he has, is absolutely not the way to go about building a team either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albany,n.y. Posted April 23, 2011 Share Posted April 23, 2011 Sam Bradford & Matt Ryan were light years ahead of either Newton or Gabbert as prospects. Both started from day 1. There's a big difference between taking a likely success at pick 3 & acting like a drunk sailor at a casino with pick 3. Selecting Newton, is like a guy throwing a dart with a blindfold & hoping to get a bullseye. He has so many red flags it's not even funny. Here's the top 2: 1 year wonder-which Buddy Nix disavowed when he was named GM. Character issues which got him out of Florida for theft & cheating. While Gabbert is a safer pick, he has no business being a top 10 pick, let alone a top 3 pick. In 1987 Trent Edwards was a better pick than Jamarcus Russell. It didn't do the Bills much good that they got a better QB in the 3rd round than Al Davis got with the top pick. One is out of the league and the other isn't far behind. Why would the Bills take a QB at 3 when they can get just as good a prospect in the 2nd or 3rd round? The risk is too high on any of them to take in the 1st round, especially with the 3rd pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozymandius Posted April 23, 2011 Share Posted April 23, 2011 the Bills should draft a QB then tank the season to draft Andrew Luck. draft as many QBs as it takes to get it right. QBs turn franchises around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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