Will The Bills Actually Draft A Top Rated Player??

[BillsPhan]

Last year at this time Buddy Nix was here to bring sanity to the Buffalo Bills draft. Instead, he went out and drafted C.J. Spiller, widely recognized as the best running back in the draft, but certainly not on the vast majority of most mock drafts for the Bills #1 pick.

 

This year it's even easier to fall into the "logical" thing Nix,Modrak and Gailey should or even "will" do. Of course they will come together and draft one of these 8 best players rated on anybody's mock draft for Buffalo, right?: Cam Newton, Von Miller, Marcell Dareus, A.J. Green, Patrick Peterson, Nick Fairley, Blaine Gabbert or Da'Quan Bowers.

 

Even A,J. Green, who might be considered this years' "Spiller type luxury" pick at #3 for the Bills, would in my opinion be a better choice then Spiller was last year. The other 7 kids would be considered outstanding choices with the #3 pick by just about any fan or "draft guru" or even any other GM out there.

 

With that said, and knowing the Buffalo Bills draft history, we should all expect Nix to trade out of the number 3 pick altogether, and in return give another team the chance to draft one of those outstanding athletes while the Bills draft lower in the 20's in the first round and feel all warm and fuzzy to have an extra 2nd or 3rd round pick to add "depth".

 

Hey I hope I'm wrong, but history is certainly not in our favor for Nix just sticking with #3 and drafting an impact player. I don't know if it's Modrak's authority for the past 10 years, but time after time it seems like Buffalo is always trying to draft that unknown "sleeper" or that player just out of the experts eyes, instead of doing the obvious smart thing and picking the obvious need player.

[mattsox]

Nix is not gonna trade the 3rd overall pick, sorry... They're more than likely gonna take Von Miller. That's their highest rated player right now...

[Ghost of Rob Johnson]

I'd add two more names to your list of 8, Robert Quinn & Cam Jordan, that are top rated players. Any of the ten I could see the reasoning behind and would be okay with.

[Thud]

Thats what Nevergiveup said. He is the insider. Where are you? Any new updates?

[White Linen]

What's the history of us trading out of a top 5 pick? Why should "we all expect this"? I don't get the post.

[BobChalmers]

Last year at this time Buddy Nix was here to bring sanity to the Buffalo Bills draft. Instead, he went out and drafted C.J. Spiller, widely recognized as the best running back in the draft, but certainly not on the vast majority of most mock drafts for the Bills #1 pick.

 

This year it's even easier to fall into the "logical" thing Nix,Modrak and Gailey should or even "will" do. Of course they will come together and draft one of these 8 best players rated on anybody's mock draft for Buffalo, right?: Cam Newton, Von Miller, Marcell Dareus, A.J. Green, Patrick Peterson, Nick Fairley, Blaine Gabbert or Da'Quan Bowers.

 

Even A,J. Green, who might be considered this years' "Spiller type luxury" pick at #3 for the Bills, would in my opinion be a better choice then Spiller was last year. The other 7 kids would be considered outstanding choices with the #3 pick by just about any fan or "draft guru" or even any other GM out there.

 

With that said, and knowing the Buffalo Bills draft history, we should all expect Nix to trade out of the number 3 pick altogether, and in return give another team the chance to draft one of those outstanding athletes while the Bills draft lower in the 20's in the first round and feel all warm and fuzzy to have an extra 2nd or 3rd round pick to add "depth".

 

Hey I hope I'm wrong, but history is certainly not in our favor for Nix just sticking with #3 and drafting an impact player. I don't know if it's Modrak's authority for the past 10 years, but time after time it seems like Buffalo is always trying to draft that unknown "sleeper" or that player just out of the experts eyes, instead of doing the obvious smart thing and picking the obvious need player.

 

You are totally confusing two completely different things - drafting "sleepers" in the first round is another word for REACH, and it's generally pretty dumb for a first-round pick. Yes, the PRIOR Bills regimes were doing too much of that.

 

Spiller was NOT a reach or a sleeper - he was arguably the best player availaible in the whole draft (going in). He wasn't a "need" pick - he was a BPA pick. "Need" picks are the ones that often turn out to be reaches and sleepers.

 

There is no real logic to associate what Nix and Gailey did last year with "sleepers". As you point out, Green, or I'd add Peterson, would be the most similar.

 

I'm probably less worried about this year than most, simply because there are probably 9 perfectly reasonable choices - some clear needs, some mroe BPA-types, and 2 QB's which is kind of its own category. I prefer some to others but not nearly enough to say I'm sure I'm right and Nix will be wrong to prefer one of Fairley/Dareus, or Bowers/Quinn, or Newton/Gabbert. I also don't have a real strong feeling either way - even having seen the combines, reviews, etc. about Miller, Peterson, and Green. There's nine perfectly reasonable picks, and I don't think anyone on this board REALLY knows which is the best or worst on the list.

 

I suppose if the Bills left that list of 9 I would be bothered - how likely is that really? Certainly the Spiller pick is not evidence for them doing so - he was everyone's clear #1 choice at the position.

[RJ (not THAT RJ)]

What's the history of us trading out of a top 5 pick? Why should "we all expect this"? I don't get the post.

 

 

Nothing much to get, really. Just another self-hating Bills fan going out of his way to create things to be upset about.

 

In other word, just another day in the sunshine fest that is TSW.

[jumbalaya]

Bills trade down to 7 or so and get a second about pick #40. They grab Cam Jordan and in round two take Taylor and Martez Wilson. Now we have the makings of a defense and maybe a new Triangle.

[Wagon Circler]

You are of course referring to the Tom Donahoe era which we all remember fondly.

Not ready to put Buddy in that category just yet.

If we do trade down, I can't see it being lower than 12-15. If it adds a 2nd rounder, that's ok.

[BillsPhan]

You are totally confusing two completely different things - drafting "sleepers" in the first round is another word for REACH, and it's generally pretty dumb for a first-round pick. Yes, the PRIOR Bills regimes were doing too much of that.

 

Spiller was NOT a reach or a sleeper - he was arguably the best player availaible in the whole draft (going in). He wasn't a "need" pick - he was a BPA pick. "Need" picks are the ones that often turn out to be reaches and sleepers.

 

There is no real logic to associate what Nix and Gailey did last year with "sleepers". As you point out, Green, or I'd add Peterson, would be the most similar.

 

I'm probably less worried about this year than most, simply because there are probably 9 perfectly reasonable choices - some clear needs, some mroe BPA-types, and 2 QB's which is kind of its own category. I prefer some to others but not nearly enough to say I'm sure I'm right and Nix will be wrong to prefer one of Fairley/Dareus, or Bowers/Quinn, or Newton/Gabbert. I also don't have a real strong feeling either way - even having seen the combines, reviews, etc. about Miller, Peterson, and Green. There's nine perfectly reasonable picks, and I don't think anyone on this board REALLY knows which is the best or worst on the list.

 

I suppose if the Bills left that list of 9 I would be bothered - how likely is that really? Certainly the Spiller pick is not evidence for them doing so - he was everyone's clear #1 choice at the position.

 

Every time the Bills draft a player who makes most of us scratch our heads, people like you rush out to defend the choices. Who cares if Spiller was the clear #1 choice at his position last season, the Bills did not need him. By the way, perhaps Troup and Carrington will become impact players on the D-Line this season or next, but did you have them high on your list of 2nd and 3rd round players the Bills could have drafted? Of course not, nobody did. That's what the Bills love to do - always make the "out of the box" draft choice.

 

Of course there are nine perfectly reasonable choices everyone from the ex GM's to we casual fans think Nix should / could draft and make all of us feel good. That's exactly why I think he won't draft any of them, and try to do something classic Bills' "out of the box" - ish like trade down with the pick. Again, I hope I'm wrong, because I want him to draft either Newton or Gabbert and get our QB of the future drafted with this high of a pick!

[thebandit27]

Nix is not gonna trade the 3rd overall pick, sorry... They're more than likely gonna take Von Miller. That's their highest rated player right now...

 

Again, as I've asked you before: according to whom?

[BillsPhan]

What's the history of us trading out of a top 5 pick? Why should "we all expect this"? I don't get the post.

 

There may be zero history of the Bills ever trading out of a top 5 pick, and that was not exactly my point here. My point is that this past decade the Bills have always tried to "out-think" themselves with their first picks of the draft, be it a 1st rounder or lower if they had no 1st rounder, and last year was no exception. This year there are so many great players the Bills seem to have to choose from at #3, that the only way they could screw this up is if they trade down into the 20's for an extra pick. And that's why I predict Nix to do just that! Take a look for yourself if you have such a hard time "getting the post".

 

2010: C.J. Spiller #9 Overall. Two picks later, the 49ers chose OT Anthony Davis who started all 16 games for them. They needed a tackle, they drafted a good one, and now he starts. Wow, real rocket science there, eh? Well, not Buddy - oh no - Spiller was the "best athlete on his board" so while C.J. spent the year trying to figure out how to follow NFL blockers on a simple off tackle running play, the Bills once again sucked at offensive right tackle!

 

2009: Aaron Maybin #11 overall. Go ahead and defend that pick. While you are at it, check out Brian Orakpo's stats - chosen 2 picks after Maybin by the Redskins.

 

2008: Leodis McKelvin #11 overall. He' still working on becoming a good starter in the NFL, but Ryan Clady, drafted one spot lower, has been a starting OT for the Broncos since his first game as a rookie and once again, the Bills still suck at RT to this day.

 

2007: Marshawn Lynch #12 overall - there are so many great players taken after Lynch in that draft it makes me sick to even waste my time writing them down.

 

2006: Donte Whitner #8 overall. Why?

2006: John McGargo #22 overall. Words cannot express how bad this pick was.

 

2005: Roscoe Parrish #55 overall. (No 1st round pick). Not a terrible pick for a late 2nd rounder, too bad they didn't take Vincent Jackson taken after Parrish instead though.

 

2004: Lee Evans #13 overall. Good pick.

2004: J.P. Lost-man #22 overall. Really really really bad pick.

 

2003: Willis McGahee #23 overall. Comical waste of a 1st round draft pick.

 

2002: Mike Williams #4 overall. The biggest bust of all?

 

2001: Nate Clements #21 overall. Good pick.

 

Summation; TWO good picks in 10 years of 1st round drafting. That's why I "have my doubts."

[Bangarang]

I love when people bash the Spiller pick yet never tell you who they would have drafted instead.

[PromoTheRobot]

I love when people bash the Spiller pick yet never tell you who they would have drafted instead.

CJ was a "top pick" at RB. Every draft analyst said SD had Spiller targeted at #12.

 

By the way...

 

2010 NFL Draft Day - Final Thoughts: I really hope I'm wrong about this pick - I'd love it if the Bills took Jimmy Clausen so they could finally turn things around. But something tells me they won't. Dan Williams it is.

 

Other 2010 NFL Draft Possibilities:

 

1. Trent Williams or Bryan Bulaga, OT - If the Seahawks or Chiefs take Eric Berry, Buffalo will have a chance to draft a left tackle.

 

2. Jimmy Clausen, QB - Can the Bills finally do the right thing for a change? It's looking doubtful.

 

Okay Mel. The Bills "screwed up" by not taking a QB so awesome the team that did draft him is looking to draft another franchise QB a year later???

 

PTR

Edited March 30, 2011 by PromoTheRobot

[K Gun Special]

There may be zero history of the Bills ever trading out of a top 5 pick, and that was not exactly my point here. My point is that this past decade the Bills have always tried to "out-think" themselves with their first picks of the draft, be it a 1st rounder or lower if they had no 1st rounder, and last year was no exception. This year there are so many great players the Bills seem to have to choose from at #3, that the only way they could screw this up is if they trade down into the 20's for an extra pick. And that's why I predict Nix to do just that! Take a look for yourself if you have such a hard time "getting the post".

 

2010: C.J. Spiller #9 Overall. Two picks later, the 49ers chose OT Anthony Davis who started all 16 games for them. They needed a tackle, they drafted a good one, and now he starts. Wow, real rocket science there, eh? Well, not Buddy - oh no - Spiller was the "best athlete on his board" so while C.J. spent the year trying to figure out how to follow NFL blockers on a simple off tackle running play, the Bills once again sucked at offensive right tackle!

 

2009: Aaron Maybin #11 overall. Go ahead and defend that pick. While you are at it, check out Brian Orakpo's stats - chosen 2 picks after Maybin by the Redskins.

 

2008: Leodis McKelvin #11 overall. He' still working on becoming a good starter in the NFL, but Ryan Clady, drafted one spot lower, has been a starting OT for the Broncos since his first game as a rookie and once again, the Bills still suck at RT to this day.

 

2007: Marshawn Lynch #12 overall - there are so many great players taken after Lynch in that draft it makes me sick to even waste my time writing them down.

 

2006: Donte Whitner #8 overall. Why?

2006: John McGargo #22 overall. Words cannot express how bad this pick was.

 

2005: Roscoe Parrish #55 overall. (No 1st round pick). Not a terrible pick for a late 2nd rounder, too bad they didn't take Vincent Jackson taken after Parrish instead though.

 

2004: Lee Evans #13 overall. Good pick.

2004: J.P. Lost-man #22 overall. Really really really bad pick.

 

2003: Willis McGahee #23 overall. Comical waste of a 1st round draft pick.

 

2002: Mike Williams #4 overall. The biggest bust of all?

 

2001: Nate Clements #21 overall. Good pick.

 

Summation; TWO good picks in 10 years of 1st round drafting. That's why I "have my doubts."

 

 

I know all the NFL personnel and successful franchises like the Colts and Patriots who follow the BPA mantra are wrong, and your option of drafting for need is correct.

 

 

 

http://ind.scout.com/2/844895.html

 

 

"we always try to draft the best player available" "You might be wrong in the assessment of the player, but as long as you take the best player your odds of success are very much greater than they would be otherwise"

 

 

But im sure youre right and he is wrong.

Edited March 30, 2011 by K Gun Special

[JESSEFEFFER]

There may be zero history of the Bills ever trading out of a top 5 pick, and that was not exactly my point here. My point is that this past decade the Bills have always tried to "out-think" themselves with their first picks of the draft, be it a 1st rounder or lower if they had no 1st rounder, and last year was no exception. This year there are so many great players the Bills seem to have to choose from at #3, that the only way they could screw this up is if they trade down into the 20's for an extra pick. And that's why I predict Nix to do just that! Take a look for yourself if you have such a hard time "getting the post".

 

2010: C.J. Spiller #9 Overall. Two picks later, the 49ers chose OT Anthony Davis who started all 16 games for them. They needed a tackle, they drafted a good one, and now he starts. Wow, real rocket science there, eh? Well, not Buddy - oh no - Spiller was the "best athlete on his board" so while C.J. spent the year trying to figure out how to follow NFL blockers on a simple off tackle running play, the Bills once again sucked at offensive right tackle!

 

2009: Aaron Maybin #11 overall. Go ahead and defend that pick. While you are at it, check out Brian Orakpo's stats - chosen 2 picks after Maybin by the Redskins.

 

2008: Leodis McKelvin #11 overall. He' still working on becoming a good starter in the NFL, but Ryan Clady, drafted one spot lower, has been a starting OT for the Broncos since his first game as a rookie and once again, the Bills still suck at RT to this day.

 

2007: Marshawn Lynch #12 overall - there are so many great players taken after Lynch in that draft it makes me sick to even waste my time writing them down.

 

2006: Donte Whitner #8 overall. Why?

2006: John McGargo #22 overall. Words cannot express how bad this pick was.

 

2005: Roscoe Parrish #55 overall. (No 1st round pick). Not a terrible pick for a late 2nd rounder, too bad they didn't take Vincent Jackson taken after Parrish instead though.

 

2004: Lee Evans #13 overall. Good pick.

2004: J.P. Lost-man #22 overall. Really really really bad pick.

 

2003: Willis McGahee #23 overall. Comical waste of a 1st round draft pick.

 

2002: Mike Williams #4 overall. The biggest bust of all?

 

2001: Nate Clements #21 overall. Good pick.

 

Summation; TWO good picks in 10 years of 1st round drafting. That's why I "have my doubts."

 

1987 Bills trade down with Houston from #3 to #8 and get Conlan. The Oilers take Highsmith and the Bills get Odomes in the 2nd with their extra pick. This kind of trade always make sense if you have any faith in your ability to put a draft board together. The money has gotten so big at the top of the draft that teams are unwilling to trade up for the right to pay some college kid 40+ million. Maybe a realistic rookie wage scale can change that.

 

Polian also traded for Bennett later because he would not sign with the Colts. It was the 3 way deal with the Rams that involved Eric Dickerson, Greg Bell and some draftpicks being exchanged. Mckellar, Ballard, Seals and Leonard Smith (Brandon trade) were acquired from this years' draft assets. Great draft for the Bills and it started with a move down trade.

[1B4IDie]

Every time the Bills draft a player who makes most of us scratch our heads, people like you rush out to defend the choices. Who cares if Spiller was the clear #1 choice at his position last season, the Bills did not need him. By the way, perhaps Troup and Carrington will become impact players on the D-Line this season or next, but did you have them high on your list of 2nd and 3rd round players the Bills could have drafted? Of course not, nobody did. That's what the Bills love to do - always make the "out of the box" draft choice.

 

Of course there are nine perfectly reasonable choices everyone from the ex GM's to we casual fans think Nix should / could draft and make all of us feel good. That's exactly why I think he won't draft any of them, and try to do something classic Bills' "out of the box" - ish like trade down with the pick. Again, I hope I'm wrong, because I want him to draft either Newton or Gabbert and get our QB of the future drafted with this high of a pick!

Trading down the pick isn't 1.) "out of the box" or 2.) a bad move.

 

Let's see if you can count here.

 

If there are 9 (as pointed earlier 10 with Cam Jordan) perfectly acceptable picks at #3

And they trade down to #5 or #7, at least how many of those purposely acceptable picks will be available?

If they were perfectly acceptable at #3, wouldn't they be perfectly acceptable at #9.

And for the trouble you get atleast an additional 2nd and a 4th, seems like trading down is a no brainer in this draft.

 

(Also why a team wanting to trade up is more fiction than reality.)

Edited March 30, 2011 by Why So Serious?

[White Linen]

There may be zero history of the Bills ever trading out of a top 5 pick, and that was not exactly my point here. My point is that this past decade the Bills have always tried to "out-think" themselves with their first picks of the draft, be it a 1st rounder or lower if they had no 1st rounder, and last year was no exception. This year there are so many great players the Bills seem to have to choose from at #3, that the only way they could screw this up is if they trade down into the 20's for an extra pick. And that's why I predict Nix to do just that! Take a look for yourself if you have such a hard time "getting the post".

 

2010: C.J. Spiller #9 Overall. Two picks later, the 49ers chose OT Anthony Davis who started all 16 games for them. They needed a tackle, they drafted a good one, and now he starts. Wow, real rocket science there, eh? Well, not Buddy - oh no - Spiller was the "best athlete on his board" so while C.J. spent the year trying to figure out how to follow NFL blockers on a simple off tackle running play, the Bills once again sucked at offensive right tackle!

 

2009: Aaron Maybin #11 overall. Go ahead and defend that pick. While you are at it, check out Brian Orakpo's stats - chosen 2 picks after Maybin by the Redskins.

 

2008: Leodis McKelvin #11 overall. He' still working on becoming a good starter in the NFL, but Ryan Clady, drafted one spot lower, has been a starting OT for the Broncos since his first game as a rookie and once again, the Bills still suck at RT to this day.

 

2007: Marshawn Lynch #12 overall - there are so many great players taken after Lynch in that draft it makes me sick to even waste my time writing them down.

 

2006: Donte Whitner #8 overall. Why?

2006: John McGargo #22 overall. Words cannot express how bad this pick was.

 

2005: Roscoe Parrish #55 overall. (No 1st round pick). Not a terrible pick for a late 2nd rounder, too bad they didn't take Vincent Jackson taken after Parrish instead though.

 

2004: Lee Evans #13 overall. Good pick.

2004: J.P. Lost-man #22 overall. Really really really bad pick.

 

2003: Willis McGahee #23 overall. Comical waste of a 1st round draft pick.

 

2002: Mike Williams #4 overall. The biggest bust of all?

 

2001: Nate Clements #21 overall. Good pick.

 

Summation; TWO good picks in 10 years of 1st round drafting. That's why I "have my doubts."

 

Beyond Spiller how can you attribute any of this to Nix?

[2003Contenders]

BTW, if the Bills DID trade down from #3 all the way to the 20s as you suggest, they would get A LOT more than an additional 2nd or 3rd rounder. Such a trade would require MULTIPLE first round picks plus additional picks in return.

[John from Riverside]

I think trading down that low in this draft would be a INCREDIBLE mistake unless you did it twice and came up with multiple 2nd round picks....

 

Just keep it simple.....if you decide you dont want one of the top QBs.....then make like you do then listen to trade offers for your pick

 

- Nothing out of the top 10

- Thier 1st, 2nd, and at least a 2nd next year

- Get a good player at a position of need

- Get a QB in the 2nd round with one of the pick

- Go defense from there on out