ohiotim Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Here's the playoff seeding for this year: AFC Jets (Sanchez, 1st rd pick) vs. Colts (Manning, 1st rd pick) Ravens (Flacco, 1st rd pick) vs. Chief (Cassel, 7th rd pick) Bye Steelers (Roethlisberger, 1st rd pick) Patriots (Brady, 6th rd pick) NFC New Orleans (Brees, 2nd rd pick) vs. either St. Louis (Bradford, 1st rd pick) or Seattle (Hasselbeck, 6th rd pick) Green Bay (Rodgers, 1st rd pick) vs. Eagles (Vick, 1st rd pick or Kolb, 2nd rd pick) Bye Atlanta Falcons (Ryan, 1st rd pick) Chicago (Cutler, 1st rd pick) 1st rd picks at QB in playoffs: 9 of 12 teams Teams that didn't make the playoffs with winning records: Giants (Manning, 1st rd pick) Tampa Bay (Freeman, 1st rd pick) San Diego (Rivers, 1st rd pick) # of teams with winning records + playoff teams with 1st rd QBs: 12 of 15 Other 1st rd picks at QB: Teams that didn't make the playoffs with .500 or below records: Dallas (Romo [hurt], undrafted, Kitna undrafted) Washington (McNabb, 1st rd pick, Grossman, 1st rd pick) - both have been to SB with other teams Detroit (Stafford [hurt], 1st rd pick, Hill, undrafted) - too early on Stafford Minnesota (Favre [hurt], 2nd rd pick, Jackson, 2nd rd pick) Carolina (Moore [hurt], undrafted, Clausen, 2nd rd pick) San Francisco (Smith, 1st rd pick, Smith, 5th rd pick) - Smith is a legit bust Arizona (Anderson, undrafted, Hall, undrafted, Skelton, 5th rd pick) Miami (Henne, 2nd rd pick) Cleveland (Delhomme, undrafted, McCoy, 3rd rd pick) Cincinnati (Palmer, 1st rd pick) - has been above average most of his career, but is starting to fade Jacksonville (Garrard, 4th rd pick) Tennessee (Young, 1st rd pick, Collins, 1st rd pick) - Young is a headcase, Collins has been to SB Oakland (Campbell, 1st rd pick, Boller, 1st rd pick) - both underachievers Denver (Orton, 4th rd pick, Tebow, 1st rd pick) - too early on Tebow Obviously, drafting a QB in the 1st does not guarantee a better team or playoff spot, but the numbers do not lie - to win in this league, you have to have a stud behind center, and 9 out of 12 times, they are found in the first round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zonabb Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Statistically that's meaningless. A one year's sample has no merit as it relates to yearly expected outcomes. I have a lot of questions before I'd even give this any consideration. Of the remaining teams no in the playoffs or without winning records, how many first rounders are starting or did start? What percent of all QBs are first round picks? The position has such a premier that QBs often get picked in the first round not because they're deserve it, but because teams feel like they have to grab one and gamble and its worth the risk. Cherry picking statistics and then making an argument without any statistical tests to prove anything only shows a bias in your argument toward the pick you want. Take stats 101 and come back with something significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkAF43 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Here's the playoff seeding for this year: AFC Jets (Sanchez, 1st rd pick) vs. Colts (Manning, 1st rd pick) Ravens (Flacco, 1st rd pick) vs. Chief (Cassel, 7th rd pick) Bye Steelers (Roethlisberger, 1st rd pick) Patriots (Brady, 6th rd pick) NFC New Orleans (Brees, 2nd rd pick) vs. either St. Louis (Bradford, 1st rd pick) or Seattle (Hasselbeck, 6th rd pick) Green Bay (Rodgers, 1st rd pick) vs. Eagles (Vick, 1st rd pick or Kolb, 2nd rd pick) Bye Atlanta Falcons (Ryan, 1st rd pick) Chicago (Cutler, 1st rd pick) 1st rd picks at QB in playoffs: 9 of 12 teams Teams that didn't make the playoffs with winning records: Giants (Manning, 1st rd pick) Tampa Bay (Freeman, 1st rd pick) San Diego (Rivers, 1st rd pick) # of teams with winning records + playoff teams with 1st rd QBs: 12 of 15 Other 1st rd picks at QB: Teams that didn't make the playoffs with .500 or below records: Dallas (Romo [hurt], undrafted, Kitna undrafted) Washington (McNabb, 1st rd pick, Grossman, 1st rd pick) - both have been to SB with other teams Detroit (Stafford [hurt], 1st rd pick, Hill, undrafted) - too early on Stafford Minnesota (Favre [hurt], 2nd rd pick, Jackson, 2nd rd pick) Carolina (Moore [hurt], undrafted, Clausen, 2nd rd pick) San Francisco (Smith, 1st rd pick, Smith, 5th rd pick) - Smith is a legit bust Arizona (Anderson, undrafted, Hall, undrafted, Skelton, 5th rd pick) Miami (Henne, 2nd rd pick) Cleveland (Delhomme, undrafted, McCoy, 3rd rd pick) Cincinnati (Palmer, 1st rd pick) - has been above average most of his career, but is starting to fade Jacksonville (Garrard, 4th rd pick) Tennessee (Young, 1st rd pick, Collins, 1st rd pick) - Young is a headcase, Collins has been to SB Oakland (Campbell, 1st rd pick, Boller, 1st rd pick) - both underachievers Denver (Orton, 4th rd pick, Tebow, 1st rd pick) - too early on Tebow Obviously, drafting a QB in the 1st does not guarantee a better team or playoff spot, but the numbers do not lie - to win in this league, you have to have a stud behind center, and 9 out of 12 times, they are found in the first round. Hmm or we look at where these teams rank with their run D..... I'm guessing none of them gave up over 200 yards a game on the ground 7 or so times this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87168 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Statistically that's meaningless. A one year's sample has no merit as it relates to yearly expected outcomes. I have a lot of questions before I'd even give this any consideration. Of the remaining teams no in the playoffs or without winning records, how many first rounders are starting or did start? What percent of all QBs are first round picks? The position has such a premier that QBs often get picked in the first round not because they're deserve it, but because teams feel like they have to grab one and gamble and its worth the risk. Cherry picking statistics and then making an argument without any statistical tests to prove anything only shows a bias in your argument toward the pick you want. Take stats 101 and come back with something significant. Ouch.....haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KD in CA Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Too bad there won't be any franchaise QBs available at #3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
agardin Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I don't disagree but it does depend on if that true franchise player is there. If Luck comes out and is gone do the Bills draft Mallett, Newton or Locker? The latter three will move up if they all declare. Newton and Locker will as I would expect they will have excellent workouts ( Mallett is already a top 15 pick) I really don't like picking a guy after they have excellent work outs. McKelvin and Maybin would be good examples of that. The only guy that I have seen shoot up the charts after a great combine and be worth it was Flacco. I guess there are probably others. It is going to be a tough off season for the front office, if they whiff on the number 3 pick it will be devasting. Kinda like all of the Bills misses in the last decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Green Lightning Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Too bad there won't be any franchaise QBs available at #3. This. Hmm or we look at where these teams rank with their run D..... I'm guessing none of them gave up over 200 yards a game on the ground 7 or so times this year. And this.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCBongo Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 If there is a good Qb there at 3, yes, Bills have got to pull the trigger. Outside of Luck, there is no one else worth a 1st round pick. Go heavy on the D. Our O would be alot better if the D could stop the run on occasion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob's House Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 So, if I follow your logic correctly, although Fitz has shined while surrounded by limited talent in an offense where all others have failed miserably, we need spend our top pick on a QB b/c of his draft position? I wish NE subscribed to this brand of logic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spiderweb Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 So, if I follow your logic correctly, although Fitz has shined while surrounded by limited talent in an offense where all others have failed miserably, we need spend our top pick on a QB b/c of his draft position? I wish NE subscribed to this brand of logic. Hummm, did you miss last weeks game or the first game against the Pats with two 4th quarter picks, or the quarter picks against the Ravens, of the 4th quarter pick against the Chiefs? How about the OT miss fires? Save the Pittsburgh game, Fitz had a direct hand in all those losses. You can say he was why we were in the game. Why? Simply because up to the late picks, he had mostly done what a NFL QB should be able to do? Fitz played well in spurts, that was shown, but shine? I like Fitz, but mostly because he hasn't stunk as bad as the QB's since Bledsoe's first 8 games with Buffalo. I'll have to say "shine" in my book must be quite different than shine in your book. "Shine" would mean that Fitz made the throws to win against the Ravens, Bears, Chiefs, Piits......... Fitz may be our best option currently, but by no means is he a guy that lets you pass on a top QB in the draft. Lucky for Fitz, after Luck, they appear iffy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkington Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 The offense has been ok, to good at times.... the defense has been bad to worse all season... and everyone is talking QB as the main concern. I hope Nix doesn't agree with you yahoos. A QB won't get the job done by himself, you have to install tools around him before installing a QB. Lets shore up our weak points, then draft our guy. Fitz is a fine stop gap, no need to bench him at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magox Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Hummm, did you miss last weeks game or the first game against the Pats with two 4th quarter picks, or the quarter picks against the Ravens, of the 4th quarter pick against the Chiefs? How about the OT miss fires? Save the Pittsburgh game, Fitz had a direct hand in all those losses. You can say he was why we were in the game. Why? Simply because up to the late picks, he had mostly done what a NFL QB should be able to do? Fitz played well in spurts, that was shown, but shine? I like Fitz, but mostly because he hasn't stunk as bad as the QB's since Bledsoe's first 8 games with Buffalo. I'll have to say "shine" in my book must be quite different than shine in your book. "Shine" would mean that Fitz made the throws to win against the Ravens, Bears, Chiefs, Piits......... Fitz may be our best option currently, but by no means is he a guy that lets you pass on a top QB in the draft. Lucky for Fitz, after Luck, they appear iffy. Did you just cherry pick some of his bad moments? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob's House Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Hummm, did you miss last weeks game or the first game against the Pats with two 4th quarter picks, or the quarter picks against the Ravens, of the 4th quarter pick against the Chiefs? How about the OT miss fires? Save the Pittsburgh game, Fitz had a direct hand in all those losses. You can say he was why we were in the game. Why? Simply because up to the late picks, he had mostly done what a NFL QB should be able to do? Fitz played well in spurts, that was shown, but shine? I like Fitz, but mostly because he hasn't stunk as bad as the QB's since Bledsoe's first 8 games with Buffalo. I'll have to say "shine" in my book must be quite different than shine in your book. "Shine" would mean that Fitz made the throws to win against the Ravens, Bears, Chiefs, Piits......... Fitz may be our best option currently, but by no means is he a guy that lets you pass on a top QB in the draft. Lucky for Fitz, after Luck, they appear iffy. Was another of those OT misfires when he completed the pass inside Baltimore's 40 only to have the receiver get stripped? He was by no means flawless, but here's the thing. He played behind arguably the worst line in the league, with one of the least accomplished receiving corps, in an offense that struggled to make so much as a first down, much less a TD when anyone else played. No Bills QB had thrown for 300 yds in 3+ yrs. People were questioning if this was the worst team, not only in the NFL, but in the history of the NFL. People even questioned if this team could beat a UFL team. Then Fitz steps into this joke of an offense and all of a sudden no one's laughing. And Fitz is putting up 300 yd 4 td games and taking SB contenders into OT. In 13 games he notched 3000 yds and 23 tds (which at that rate would translate to 3700 yds and 28 tds over 16 games). The NE game was the first game all season he didn't have a TD pass. I say we stop nit picking and give the man his due. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spiderweb Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 (edited) Did you just cherry pick some of his bad moments? Cherry picked? Yeah, that what I did. There was a three game stretch with the Bills in every game in which Fitz had the very 4th quarter picks I referred to. How about Fitz's pick and three fumbles against the Vikes, or his three picks and two fumbles against the Pats. That's 5 games right there. How about Fitz's last 9 games, in which the Bills scored 20 or more point just once (Bengals)? If Fitz is to become a winning QB, all of this must improve. I'm sure with a little digging I could add more, but this is all highly visible and required no digging. Fitz would get us close, but then break our heart. Added: Heck, I like his fire, his intensity, his effort, etc. He surely helped make the Bills far more competitive, but no rose colored glasses here, he played a part in the losses, sometimes a considerable part. based on what the Bills have and what he did, yes, he is clearly our number 1, but I wouldn't stop looking for an upgrade to the QB position. Edited January 3, 2011 by Spiderweb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flmike Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Agreed, bottom line is that Fitz(gibbons) has earned another season at the helm. The stability will do this team wonders. A new DC would make us want to watch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whodat Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Was another of those OT misfires when he completed the pass inside Baltimore's 40 only to have the receiver get stripped? He was by no means flawless, but here's the thing. He played behind arguably the worst line in the league, with one of the least accomplished receiving corps, in an offense that struggled to make so much as a first down, much less a TD when anyone else played. No Bills QB had thrown for 300 yds in 3+ yrs. People were questioning if this was the worst team, not only in the NFL, but in the history of the NFL. People even questioned if this team could beat a UFL team. Then Fitz steps into this joke of an offense and all of a sudden no one's laughing. And Fitz is putting up 300 yd 4 td games and taking SB contenders into OT. In 13 games he notched 3000 yds and 23 tds (which at that rate would translate to 3700 yds and 28 tds over 16 games). The NE game was the first game all season he didn't have a TD pass. I say we stop nit picking and give the man his due. Hear, hear. Excellent points that need to be made. I’m glad Buddy and Chan are making this decision. It’s not going to be an easy one. We saw how bad this offense is under Edwards, Brohm as well as Losman. Fitzpatrick creates something out of this mess. However picking third, they have an open field of opportunity. And having all those options available makes this a little more complicated and interesting. Don't know my wish list other than I’m glad, so glad the past decision makers are behind us. There's at least a chance of something good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superbills315 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Hmm or we look at where these teams rank with their run D..... I'm guessing none of them gave up over 200 yards a game on the ground 7 or so times this year. and they have a good O-Line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Koufax Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 The offense has been ok, to good at times.... the defense has been bad to worse all season... and everyone is talking QB as the main concern. I hope Nix doesn't agree with you yahoos. A QB won't get the job done by himself, you have to install tools around him before installing a QB. Lets shore up our weak points, then draft our guy. Fitz is a fine stop gap, no need to bench him at the moment. I agree with most of you comments, but "shore up our weak points" sounds like you think the 2011 draft class should drammatically affect the 2011 season and should be chosen based on 2010 needs. I just see that as bad management, both because draft picks tend to contribute more in years 2 through 5 than year 1, and because that usually means getting inferior players because position comes before talent. Other than that, good points, and try to add the most talent to the roster possible (yes, some front 7 most likely) and with fitz we can pick the right QB in 2011 or 2012 and develop him...not force our #3 overall pick and throw that guy to the wolves hoping he is good. All that said, I see some Mallet/Rothlisberger similarities and I hope he gets a careful look by Buddy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8-8 Forever? Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Too bad there won't be any franchaise QBs available at #3. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akm0404 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 (edited) Cherry picking statistics and then making an argument without any statistical tests to prove anything only shows a bias in your argument toward the pick you want. Take stats 101 and come back with something significant. We are talking about the terrible performance of one season of NFL football, not some million-trial clinical test or statistically valid population sample or something. Lose the 'Stats 101' powertrip and get real. It's a football message board. People use statistics to compare performances over the course of one or more seasons to make their points. And the point of the OP was that highly drafted quarterbacks tend to show up more in the playoffs, which is obviously true. You don't need a phD to recognize that the teams with the best quarterbacks compete for championships year in and year out, while the teams with the journeymen fight for the scraps. Also, to the posters that claim the Bills offense is good - it's really quite terrible and about as bad as the defense was. Fitz did not shine - he was well below average and led his team to the third worst season in the NFL. Bottom quarter offense, bottom of the barrel QB. Only way to turn things around and compete for championships for a decade is to find elite QB play any way you can - and not settle for a smart guy with a killer beard. Dare to dream of having the next Tom Brady and own the division until 2025. Edited January 3, 2011 by akm0404 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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