NaPolian8693 Posted October 12, 2010 Share Posted October 12, 2010 (edited) Let's look at QBs in the NFL that stand to have good careers that last many seasons and feature a Pro Bowl (based on my own personal opinion), and what round they were drafted in. Philip Rivers - 1st round Peyton Manning - 1st Donovan McNabb - 1st Eli Manning - 1st Carson Palmer - 1st Aaron Rodgers - 1st Matt Ryan - 1st Jay Cutler - 1st Mike Vick - 1st Brett Favre - 2nd Drew Brees - 2nd Matt Schaub - 3rd Tom Brady - 6th Tony Romo - Undrafted Potential: Matthew Stafford - 1st Sam Bradford - 1st Joe Flacco - 1st Mark Sanchez - 1st Josh Freeman - 1st Kyle Orton - 4th QBs that did not make the list do not stand to have "franchise QB" careers, in my opinion. Of these twenty QBs, fourteen of the twenty are first round picks. So, yes, 1st round QB picks do bust at a high rate, but nonetheless the first round of the draft is still by far your best shot at getting a good QB to build around. Edited October 12, 2010 by NaPolian8693 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boyst Posted October 12, 2010 Share Posted October 12, 2010 There have been about 200 of these threads over the last 9 months. It is obvious we must draft a QB in rd 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sweatpantsjoe Posted October 12, 2010 Share Posted October 12, 2010 Their mother's uterus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akm0404 Posted October 12, 2010 Share Posted October 12, 2010 You would think this is as obvious as the sun rising in the east, but rest assured there will be an influx of posters with limited knowledge of modern NFL football that will assert that the Bills should reach on an offensive/defensive lineman or linebacker instead. These people should scare you. They are the same types of people we've had running our team into the ground for the last decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thoner7 Posted October 12, 2010 Share Posted October 12, 2010 (edited) Both Farve and Brees were selected 33rd overall too. Now I knwo Farve was taken before there were 32 teams, but in the era of the modern draft him and Brees are the 1st player taken in the second round. So if you figure the Bills are picking 1st overall next year, we will have that 33rd pick. That means we kinda have 2 shots at nabbing our QB. Also that takes your % from 70 up to 80 when you think of it that way. --- I think we should follow the Rans/Falcons Model. Take the QB early - hopefully Luck, then Mallet we should take the risk on - then with our 33rd take a top T. Both of those teams have had great success doing that. Edited October 12, 2010 by Thoner7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JPS Posted October 12, 2010 Share Posted October 12, 2010 Shrieveport, Louisiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted October 12, 2010 Share Posted October 12, 2010 You would think this is as obvious as the sun rising in the east, but rest assured there will be an influx of posters with limited knowledge of modern NFL football that will assert that the Bills should reach on an offensive/defensive lineman or linebacker instead. These people should scare you. They are the same types of people we've had running our team into the ground for the last decade. *sigh*. OK, be scared O' me, but there's really no need. It is one proven, winning strategy to build stud lines, and have a servicable QB in there. It has taken teams to championships. It has taken teams to Superbowl victories. Do the names Jeff Hofstadler and Mark Rypien have meaning to you? The Bills have not been run into the ground for the last decade because the franchise has been following one proven path instead of another proven path. The Bills have been run into the ground for the last decade because they have been following no proven path and have made questionable personnel decision after questionable personnel decision, especially with their high-round draft choices. I personally think the Bills could draft Joe Genius QB next year and he'd only learn to play scared, playing behind our line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tennesseeboy Posted October 12, 2010 Share Posted October 12, 2010 It looks like we have almost a lock on the first or second pick, and I can't imagine we won't go with a qb on that one. Doesn't help us with the pyss poor defense or o-line, and I suppose the rest of draft should go to giving the new qb the support he wil need to be successful, meaning fixing the o-line (REALLY fixing the o-line) and getting another quality receiver. I find it hard to believe we will go through another season with the same defense we have this year, but there may not be any alternative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K Gun Special Posted October 12, 2010 Share Posted October 12, 2010 *sigh*. OK, be scared O' me, but there's really no need. It is one proven, winning strategy to build stud lines, and have a servicable QB in there. It has taken teams to championships. It has taken teams to Superbowl victories. Do the names Jeff Hofstadler and Mark Rypien have meaning to you? The Bills have not been run into the ground for the last decade because the franchise has been following one proven path instead of another proven path. The Bills have been run into the ground for the last decade because they have been following no proven path and have made questionable personnel decision after questionable personnel decision, especially with their high-round draft choices. I personally think the Bills could draft Joe Genius QB next year and he'd only learn to play scared, playing behind our line. Yes this is true. Many many many more teams win with outstanding QB play and lesser lines. btw the saints won with a backup LT last year. I think the main point is, its so much harder to find a #1 QB than it is to build the OL so you need to take advantage of a 1 or 2 spot in the draft. Sure he might be a bust, but its your best shot. There is no way this team selects an OL or LB in that draft position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albany,n.y. Posted October 12, 2010 Share Posted October 12, 2010 Let's look at QBs in the NFL that stand to have good careers that last many seasons and feature a Pro Bowl (based on my own personal opinion), and what round they were drafted in. Philip Rivers - 1st round Peyton Manning - 1st Donovan McNabb - 1st Eli Manning - 1st Carson Palmer - 1st Aaron Rodgers - 1st Matt Ryan - 1st Jay Cutler - 1st Mike Vick - 1st Brett Favre - 2nd Drew Brees - 2nd Matt Schaub - 3rd Tom Brady - 6th Tony Romo - Undrafted Potential: Matthew Stafford - 1st Sam Bradford - 1st Joe Flacco - 1st Mark Sanchez - 1st Josh Freeman - 1st Kyle Orton - 4th QBs that did not make the list do not stand to have "franchise QB" careers, in my opinion. Of these twenty QBs, fourteen of the twenty are first round picks. So, yes, 1st round QB picks do bust at a high rate, but nonetheless the first round of the draft is still by far your best shot at getting a good QB to build around. I've said it before: Statistically, if you draft a QB at pick #1, you have at least a 33% chance of winning the Super Bowl and a 22% chance of winning it more than once during the player's career. The key is not to get enamored over a guy who isn't good enough. At least half this board could have predicted Russell would be a bust. If there is no franchise QB at #1 there might just be the next Bruce Smith instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Another Point of View Posted October 12, 2010 Share Posted October 12, 2010 Daryl Lamonica 24th round 1963 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akm0404 Posted October 12, 2010 Share Posted October 12, 2010 It is one proven, winning strategy to build stud lines, and have a servicable QB in there. It has taken teams to championships. It has taken teams to Superbowl victories. Do the names Jeff Hofstadler and Mark Rypien have meaning to you? Because something happened twice out of 40 or something tries doesn't make it a "proven, winning strategy". In fact, it pretty much proves the opposite. Do you see why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tennesseeboy Posted October 12, 2010 Share Posted October 12, 2010 And Kurt Warner was a free agent....Johnny Unitas, Joe Montana, Jack Kemp, Bart Starr, and a host of other qb's were somewhere in the lter rounds. However, your point is valid that if you were a betting man you're chances of getting a great pick are much better (for any position) in the first round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Tomcat Posted October 12, 2010 Share Posted October 12, 2010 (edited) would love to see the 1st round qbs that failed. For the sake of argument I'd like to see top 5 qbs who have failed. Edited October 12, 2010 by The Tomcat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ramius Posted October 12, 2010 Share Posted October 12, 2010 would love to see the 1st round qbs that failed. Plenty of first round QBs far failed. However, when you try to rely on QBs from the later rounds, the failure rate is astronomically higher than in round 1. If you want a guy to be a franchise QB, your best bet is to draft one as early as possible. That doesn't mean just take any QB. But if a guy who you think is a "franchise" QB is available, you take him, no questions asked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloBill Posted October 12, 2010 Share Posted October 12, 2010 You would think this is as obvious as the sun rising in the east, but rest assured there will be an influx of posters with limited knowledge of modern NFL football that will assert that the Bills should reach on an offensive/defensive lineman or linebacker instead. These people should scare you. They are the same types of people we've had running our team into the ground for the last decade. What is scary is your claim of superior knowledge. What has run this team into the ground over the last decade is the lack of emphasis - in this order - on QB , retaining a skilled LT, developing a pass rushing DE (and retaining him), sticking with a scheme that makes sense - on both sides of the ball - and simply drafting poorly. I do agree with you that Drafting a QB should be priority #1 but a close second has to be a stud pass rusher (oreven a stud NT) is a stud LT. If the QB is truly not available at the pick you have and one of the other priorities is then you address them accordingly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akm0404 Posted October 12, 2010 Share Posted October 12, 2010 Statistically, if you draft a QB at pick #1, you have at least a 33% chance of winning the Super Bowl and a 22% chance of winning it more than once during the player's career. This is a great statistic, and is very telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanInUticaTampa Posted October 12, 2010 Share Posted October 12, 2010 Wait? So what you are saying is if we draft a QB in the 1st round, we have a higher chance of getting a franchise QB? Isn't that a little..... obvious? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
papazoid Posted October 12, 2010 Share Posted October 12, 2010 Lists are great.......here's some more First Round QB's you forget to mention: Jamarcus Russell Brady Quinn Matt Leinart Alex Smith J P Losman Byron Leftwich Kyle Boller Rex Grossman David Carr Joey Harrington Patrick Ramsey Tim Couch Akili Smith Cade McNown Ryan Leaf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CountDorkula Posted October 12, 2010 Share Posted October 12, 2010 Lists are great.......here's some more First Round QB's you forget to mention: Jamarcus Russell Brady Quinn Matt Leinart Alex Smith J P Losman Byron Leftwich Kyle Boller Rex Grossman David Carr Joey Harrington Patrick Ramsey Tim Couch Akili Smith Cade McNown Ryan Leaf I still believe David Carr was ruined by a terrible, very terrbible OL in Houston. He got sacked almost 70times a season his first 2 years in the league. Not to mention the countless hits, pressures and knock downs he encountered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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