4th and 1

[billsfan in n.h]

if we would have went for it on 4th and 1 at the end of the first half and make it we grab the momentum and possibly a TD,run out the half its a different ball game.i feel that was stupid game managment.we were running very strong against them and i think we could have done it. how about you ?????

[b stein 22]

if we would have went for it on 4th and 1 at the end of the first half and make it we grab the momentum and possibly a TD,run out the half its a different ball game.i feel that was stupid game managment.we were running very strong against them and i think we could have done it. how about you ?????

We should have gone for it considering what tom brady did to us right after, but i dont think anyone of us thought the they were going to do that.

Edited October 1, 2010 by b stein 22

[mob16151]

Hindsight is 20/20. At the time I was ok with getting the points.

[RuntheDamnBall]

if we would have went for it on 4th and 1 at the end of the first half and make it we grab the momentum and possibly a TD,run out the half its a different ball game.i feel that was stupid game managment.we were running very strong against them and i think we could have done it. how about you ?????

That's really one of those decisions that really makes you look brilliant if you make it, not so much if you don't.

 

I am for it against a team like New England because I think you need to take risks and catch them off guard to mask the obvious imbalance in talent, but I can't fault Chan for not wanting to leave points on the board. One thing I'd say is that I recall New England going for it on 4th and 1 more often than not, and it generally leads me to the question of why wouldn't anyone go for it in that situation against the Bills, given what will follow from the Bills offense if you don't make it. I hope that's about to change.

[reddogblitz]

Coach Gailey is just setting a team up later in the season. It will be 4th and 1 and he'll go into his "I'm going for it thing". Other D will think we aren't since we've done it at least twice before. The FB will shift and then shift back. Then with about 10 left on the play clock Fitz will pull out like he's going to call a timeout. Then he'll quickly get back under center and run a play. cha ching. TD

 

But I thought going for the FG in that situation was the right call. Get the points. Take the lead over the defending AFC East champs.

Edited October 1, 2010 by reddogblitz

[flopagamo]

TMQ on ESPN has it right -- "Kick early, go for it late." In the first half, you get sure points when sure points are presented to you.

[swimtoga]

did you see what happened to Denver last week when they kept on going for it on 4th down?

[Albany,n.y.]

The FG gave the Bills the lead. If they don't make it they go into the locker room behind, Gailey wanted to be ahead at halftime and build on it. Unfortunately our team couldn't stop the Patriots with less than half a minute on the clock.

 

At halftime some guys were in the bathroom, obviously having left the stands after the Bills' FG. They thought the Bills were ahead and one Bills fan, who was verbally sparring with a Patriots fan asked "What's the score" assuming he had the upper hand. Funniest thing I've seen at an opposing stadium in quite a while.

Edited October 1, 2010 by Albany,n.y.

[1B4IDie]

TMQ on ESPN has it right -- "Kick early, go for it late." In the first half, you get sure points when sure points are presented to you.

Actually this is much more scientific than old wives tales like "Kick early, go for it late."

 

Football outsiders did a study on going for it on 4th and 1 and teams make it 70% of the time early and make it less late, but even the lower percentage late it ended up being more than 50%.

So basically as long as you're not inside your own 45 you should go for it on 4th and 1 all the time.

 

They looked at 4th and 2, and basically the successful conversions took a hugely dramatic drop.

 

I can't quickly find the article quickly but it was pretty interesting.

The article specifically calls out Bill Titticheck and how is predilection for going for it on 4th actually makes sense.

 

At the time, I was OK with taking the points, but in the back of my head I thought, this is the difference between the Bills and the Gatriots.

Titticheck would have gone for it there and came away with 7, and we were happy to kick for 3.

[bowery4]

If they go for it and don't get it or any points, they pretty much HAVE to go onsides on the kick off because after giving up 3 or 7 b4 half time ( very likely scenario ) and then giving the Cheats the ball back after the half is an insurmountable change in momentum. BTW during the game I was saying my gut tells me going for it is the thing to do (I also know about that percentage you were talking about there), they look like it is a surprise. Trying to get the penalty was the right thing to do.

Edited October 1, 2010 by bowery4

[pkwwjd]

I just want the Bills to stop the "Fake going for it on 4th down by motioning the FB back and forth across the formation".

 

If you line up to go for it ... go for it. They needed about a foot. If you don't make it there, you're not going to win anyway.

[mannc]

We should have gone for it considering what tom brady did to us right after, but i dont think anyone of us thought the they were going to do that.

 

Are you serious? How many times do you have to see Brady carve up this defense until you're not surprised by it? Against a great offensive team that you have not beaten in the last 13 tries, you need to take some risks. The Bills will not beat any good teams this year without bold decision-making on fourth down. They also should have gone for it on fourth and two near the end of the first half against Green Bay. They had just scored a TD on a beautiful, long drive and forced GB to punt, three and out. They had then made a few nice first downs and were moving the ball well. They had the ball near midfield, fourth and two, trailing 13-7 on the road against an explosive offense. There was less than a minute left in the half. What's wrong with going for it there? If you make it, you keep the drive alive and get points to end the half, and go into the locker room with momentum. Instead, they punted and never threatened again.

 

The Bills' talent (especially on offense) is not such that they can beat teams like GB (and QBs like Rogers or Brady) without keeping drives alive with an extra play now and again. Gailey, like Jauron, seems not to understand this, or is just coaching to try to keep the margin of defeat as low as possible. Good coaches realize that in many instances, going for it on 4th and short IS playing the percentages.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

You need to add in: "if we would have went for it on 4th and 1 with 28 seconds left" To me that was a big difference. Assume we did make it, likely would be a running play. By the time things are unpiled assuming you make it, there's maybe 25 seconds left. I believe we had one time out left which we'd have to call then. You're still around the 20 yard line I believe plus or minus? With no timeouts left after that, you have two choices, throw it into the endzone maybe three times, then kick it if unsucessful. You're talking about a 25 to 30 yard throw including distance back pedeling. Fitz doesn't have the strongest arm, so wouldn't give a high degree chance of sucess. It's alot easier to defend too when the DB's don't have to worry about someone going deep so assuming no ints. likely would have kicked anyway. The other option would be to throw underneath, but if you did that, by the time he gets tackled and get everyone back to line to snap it, you'd be under 10 seconds. So now you'd have one shot at most at the endzone and if somehow that play ends on the field of play (sack, etc), would never have a shot at kicking it. So with only 28 seconds left, I thought kicking it was the right move. Granted in hindsight, did leave too much time for Brady, but you'd have to assume we could have done a little better job stopping them than we did.

 

if we would have went for it on 4th and 1 at the end of the first half and make it we grab the momentum and possibly a TD,run out the half its a different ball game.i feel that was stupid game managment.we were running very strong against them and i think we could have done it. how about you ?????

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

IMO, the most likely outcome if you go on 4th and 1 and convert is you get a slightly closer kick and run off the clock. I would have bet on kicking the fieldgoal and the defense holding for 30 seconds after. In fact There must be a few coaches in the league that take a knee there knowing the ball is coming back for the second half kickoff. Meanwhile if you go for it and get stuffed, now you turn the ball over with more time on the clock, better filed position and the Pats have the lead.

 

Just didn't happen. If it is me playing Madden yeah i go for it, but see Chan's call as the right one for that situation.

[The Senator]

I guess Chan Gailey is the kind of guy that only eats two meals a day.

 

I was there - feeling the adrenaline and thinking the Bills might actually beat the Patriots* at Gillette! We were moving the ball pretty well and I wanted the Bills to go for it on that 4th down, too.

 

There's really not much difference whether you lose 38-30 or 38-27, but you've got to put your team in a position to win, and if you know ahead of time that you're going on 4th down with 28 seconds left in the half, it may alter your strategy on 3rd down as well.

 

“If a guy has four downs and will only use three of them, he must be the kind of man that will only eat two meals when he is offered three. Makes no damn sense to me at all.” - Mike Leach

[reddogblitz]

I just want the Bills to stop the "Fake going for it on 4th down by motioning the FB back and forth across the formation".

 

If you line up to go for it ... go for it. They needed about a foot. If you don't make it there, you're not going to win anyway.

Ed_Roch above makes an excellent point about the situation and the spot on the file and the number of seconds left.

 

I support the decision to go for the FG. I also totally agree with you on Coach Gailey's strategy of trying to draw them off sides. It will never work now that he's tried it twice. This doesn't sound like a good stategy for a coach that beleives "it's a tough game for tough people". It's not a tough game for good actors after all.

 

Either go for it or kick. Stop the fake going for it nonsense.

[flopagamo]

Actually this is much more scientific than old wives tales like "Kick early, go for it late."

 

Football outsiders did a study on going for it on 4th and 1 and teams make it 70% of the time early and make it less late, but even the lower percentage late it ended up being more than 50%.

So basically as long as you're not inside your own 45 you should go for it on 4th and 1 all the time.

 

They looked at 4th and 2, and basically the successful conversions took a hugely dramatic drop.

 

I can't quickly find the article quickly but it was pretty interesting.

The article specifically calls out Bill Titticheck and how is predilection for going for it on 4th actually makes sense.

 

At the time, I was OK with taking the points, but in the back of my head I thought, this is the difference between the Bills and the Gatriots.

Titticheck would have gone for it there and came away with 7, and we were happy to kick for 3.

Very interesting -- thanks! I hadn't seen that before. Also worth factoring in is the talent matchup, of course. The Hatriots have an O-line, which opens up the options significantly.

[KD in CA]

You need to add in: "if we would have went for it on 4th and 1 with 28 seconds left" To me that was a big difference. Assume we did make it, likely would be a running play. By the time things are unpiled assuming you make it, there's maybe 25 seconds left. I believe we had one time out left which we'd have to call then. You're still around the 20 yard line I believe plus or minus? With no timeouts left after that, you have two choices, throw it into the endzone maybe three times, then kick it if unsucessful. You're talking about a 25 to 30 yard throw including distance back pedeling. Fitz doesn't have the strongest arm, so wouldn't give a high degree chance of sucess. It's alot easier to defend too when the DB's don't have to worry about someone going deep so assuming no ints. likely would have kicked anyway. The other option would be to throw underneath, but if you did that, by the time he gets tackled and get everyone back to line to snap it, you'd be under 10 seconds. So now you'd have one shot at most at the endzone and if somehow that play ends on the field of play (sack, etc), would never have a shot at kicking it. So with only 28 seconds left, I thought kicking it was the right move. Granted in hindsight, did leave too much time for Brady, but you'd have to assume we could have done a little better job stopping them than we did.

 

Spot on analysis here. Everyone talks like they assume we would have scored a TD if they converted the 4th and 1 but it's just not so. The time left and lack of timeouts made the FG the correct call.

[Bob in STL]

Coach Gailey is just setting a team up later in the season. It will be 4th and 1 and he'll go into his "I'm going for it thing". Other D will think we aren't since we've done it at least twice before. The FB will shift and then shift back. Then with about 10 left on the play clock Fitz will pull out like he's going to call a timeout. Then he'll quickly get back under center and run a play. cha ching. TD

 

But I thought going for the FG in that situation was the right call. Get the points. Take the lead over the defending AFC East champs.

 

It was a 51 yarder and we had the lead.

 

We have nothing to lose ... nothing to fear but fear itself.

 

I say you go for it with 24 seconds on the clock. If you miss it you tried, you showed confidence in your team, and then you demand that your defense hold them for 24 dam seconds.

 

All we did was spot Brady 7 yards.

Edited October 1, 2010 by Bob in STL

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

And nothing to gain. So you answered one question for me, if it was a 51 yarder (which BTW he did make) mean the LOS was around the 34 yard line. Tha makes the odds at scoring a TD in less than 28 seconds from that distance with no timeouts left. even less.

 

We have nothing to lose ... .