How many 1st and 2nd round picks can you have not starting?

[playman]

It amazes me that McCargo is still on the roster. It shows just how many chances a player gets when they're drafted in the first round. He seemed destine to be gone with the switch to the 3-4, yet he's still around.

roster-cuts are still ahead ^^

[BillsVet]

I don't think it's accurate to include in this statement the '10 draftees. But from 05-09, there are 6 guys who probably won't start in 2010.

 

05 WR Parrish (Donahoe) backup WR

06 DL McCargo (Dick Levy) possible TC cut

07 RB Lynch (Dick Levy) Supplanted by UDFA Jackson

08 CB McKelvin (Dick Brandon) Supplanted by UFA Florence

08 WR Hardy (Dick Brandon) 4th on depth chart

09 DE Maybin (Dick Brandon) backup OLB

 

Lynch would probably start for other teams. At the same time, Buffalo had 8 other picks in the first two rounds these past 5 drafts, of which only 3 will most likely start in 2010: S Whitner, LB Posluszny, and G Wood. Hitting on less than 40% of your top picks is why they're consistently mediocre.

 

Making matters worse, they've not found anyone at the premium positions of QB, LT, and pass rusher in that same time. Not coincidentally, the same guy is still running the college scouting department. The more things change, the more they remain the same.

[dave mcbride]

I don't think it's accurate to include in this statement the '10 draftees. But from 05-09, there are 6 guys who probably won't start in 2010.

 

05 WR Parrish (Donahoe) backup WR

06 DL McCargo (Dick Levy) possible TC cut

07 RB Lynch (Dick Levy) Supplanted by UDFA Jackson

08 CB McKelvin (Dick Brandon) Supplanted by UFA Florence

08 WR Hardy (Dick Brandon) 4th on depth chart

09 DE Maybin (Dick Brandon) backup OLB

 

Lynch would probably start for other teams. At the same time, Buffalo had 8 other picks in the first two rounds these past 5 drafts, of which only 3 will most likely start in 2010: S Whitner, LB Posluszny, and G Wood. Hitting on less than 40% of your top picks is why they're consistently mediocre.

 

Making matters worse, they've not found anyone at the premium positions of QB, LT, and pass rusher in that same time. Not coincidentally, the same guy is still running the college scouting department. The more things change, the more they remain the same.

Good points, but I think you're presuming that Modrak is responsible for the top picks. I'm pretty sure that there's an elderly gentleman from Detroit who is making the calls on these picks ...

[San-O]

I don't think it's accurate to include in this statement the '10 draftees. But from 05-09, there are 6 guys who probably won't start in 2010.

 

05 WR Parrish (Donahoe) backup WR

06 DL McCargo (Dick Levy) possible TC cut

07 RB Lynch (Dick Levy) Supplanted by UDFA Jackson

08 CB McKelvin (Dick Brandon) Supplanted by UFA Florence

08 WR Hardy (Dick Brandon) 4th on depth chart

09 DE Maybin (Dick Brandon) backup OLB

 

Lynch would probably start for other teams. At the same time, Buffalo had 8 other picks in the first two rounds these past 5 drafts, of which only 3 will most likely start in 2010: S Whitner, LB Posluszny, and G Wood. Hitting on less than 40% of your top picks is why they're consistently mediocre.

 

Making matters worse, they've not found anyone at the premium positions of QB, LT, and pass rusher in that same time. Not coincidentally, the same guy is still running the college scouting department. The more things change, the more they remain the same.

 

I forget about Parrish. So, does the 1st round pick Donahoe traded count as a 1st rounf pick not starting???

[Thoner7]

This is an pointless argument. Let's assume every player you draft is a bust, but every player you sign as an UDFA turns out to be a Pro Bowler? In the end, does it matter one lick how a player wound up on your team as long as they help you win?

 

PTR

 

It matters because your scouts are telling you the best players are the ones that cant break the starting line up. Now think of the players who you missed on because of the scrubs you drafted (please dont make me list them again). This is a huge statement about our scouting depart.

[San-O]

Good points, but I think you're presuming that Modrak is responsible for the top picks. I'm pretty sure that there's an elderly gentleman from Detroit who is making the calls on these picks ...

 

 

I was under the impression that Ralph was furious about the Parrish pick and was the last straw for

o'le Whitey?

[ganesh]

I don't think it's accurate to include in this statement the '10 draftees. But from 05-09, there are 6 guys who probably won't start in 2010.

 

05 WR Parrish (Donahoe) backup WR

06 DL McCargo (Dick Levy) possible TC cut

07 RB Lynch (Dick Levy) Supplanted by UDFA Jackson

08 CB McKelvin (Dick Brandon) Supplanted by UFA Florence

08 WR Hardy (Dick Brandon) 4th on depth chart

09 DE Maybin (Dick Brandon) backup OLB

 

Lynch would probably start for other teams. At the same time, Buffalo had 8 other picks in the first two rounds these past 5 drafts, of which only 3 will most likely start in 2010: S Whitner, LB Posluszny, and G Wood. Hitting on less than 40% of your top picks is why they're consistently mediocre.

 

Making matters worse, they've not found anyone at the premium positions of QB, LT, and pass rusher in that same time. Not coincidentally, the same guy is still running the college scouting department. The more things change, the more they remain the same.

 

Not to mention the # of 1st RD picks they threw away in insane trades for JP Losman, McCargo and Drew Bledsoe.

[Thoner7]

Losman should count on this list too.

[JohnC]

This is an pointless argument. Let's assume every player you draft is a bust, but every player you sign as an UDFA turns out to be a Pro Bowler? In the end, does it matter one lick how a player wound up on your team as long as they help you win?

 

PTR

 

Your high draft picks should in general be contributing players. The chances that a UDFA is a primetime player is statistically less likely to be a primary player than a high draft pick. We did draft a UDFA player who we developed and shipped out. That is Jason Peters the starting LT for a very consistent playoff team.

 

 

As a previous poster stated missing on high draft picks is a reflection of a very poor performing front office. The Bills have been in a decade of funk because of the failure to draft well top to bottom.

[Rubes]

It amazes me that McCargo is still on the roster. It shows just how many chances a player gets when they're drafted in the first round. He seemed destine to be gone with the switch to the 3-4, yet he's still around.

 

I'm amazed as well, and I expect him to get cut, but I will say that I've been reading his name more and more in camp reports making plays in the backfield. Who knows?

[JohnC]

I don't think it's accurate to include in this statement the '10 draftees. But from 05-09, there are 6 guys who probably won't start in 2010.

 

05 WR Parrish (Donahoe) backup WR

06 DL McCargo (Dick Levy) possible TC cut

07 RB Lynch (Dick Levy) Supplanted by UDFA Jackson

08 CB McKelvin (Dick Brandon) Supplanted by UFA Florence

08 WR Hardy (Dick Brandon) 4th on depth chart

09 DE Maybin (Dick Brandon) backup OLB

 

Lynch would probably start for other teams. At the same time, Buffalo had 8 other picks in the first two rounds these past 5 drafts, of which only 3 will most likely start in 2010: S Whitner, LB Posluszny, and G Wood. Hitting on less than 40% of your top picks is why they're consistently mediocre.

 

Making matters worse, they've not found anyone at the premium positions of QB, LT, and pass rusher in that same time. Not coincidentally, the same guy is still running the college scouting department. The more things change, the more they remain the same.

 

You post and research is excellent. Those high picks you cited should be the core of the team. As you persuasively demonstrated they are not. The scouting department, headed by Modrak, has been in place for a decade. Why?

[BuffaloBill]

Catch this analysis by a non-bills fan. You can argue did he use the right method to evaluate but he certainly is not flat out wrong:

 

Niners Fan shows Bills have sucked at drafting over the last ten years.

 

Actually 2002 - 2009 but close enough to the decade of suck

[justnzane]

I don't think it's accurate to include in this statement the '10 draftees. But from 05-09, there are 6 guys who probably won't start in 2010.

 

05 WR Parrish (Donahoe) backup WR

06 DL McCargo (Dick Levy) possible TC cut

07 RB Lynch (Dick Levy) Supplanted by UDFA Jackson

08 CB McKelvin (Dick Brandon) Supplanted by UFA Florence

08 WR Hardy (Dick Brandon) 4th on depth chart

09 DE Maybin (Dick Brandon) backup OLB

 

Lynch would probably start for other teams. At the same time, Buffalo had 8 other picks in the first two rounds these past 5 drafts, of which only 3 will most likely start in 2010: S Whitner, LB Posluszny, and G Wood. Hitting on less than 40% of your top picks is why they're consistently mediocre.

 

Making matters worse, they've not found anyone at the premium positions of QB, LT, and pass rusher in that same time. Not coincidentally, the same guy is still running the college scouting department. The more things change, the more they remain the same.

 

 

erroneous. Must you forget about Byrd and Levitre?

 

You had a nice post aside from that.

[Orton's Arm]

Catch this analysis by a non-bills fan. You can argue did he use the right method to evaluate but he certainly is not flat out wrong:

 

Niners Fan shows Bills have sucked at drafting over the last ten years.

 

Actually 2002 - 2009 but close enough to the decade of suck

That was an excellent post (article?) and well worth reading. Apparently, not even Lee Evans was in the top 30% at his position. As for the other players taken in the first round during that span . . .

 

On another note, a guy like Donte Whitner is just barely holding onto his starting spot. Other players like George Wilson and Bryan Scott could do the job about as well as Whitner does. If the Bills had Wilson, Scott, and Byrd, but didn't have Whitner, very little would be gained by adding him. It's unfair to Whitner personally to declare him an outright bust, when he's still starting and making plays for the team. But certainly, the draft pick we used to take him was completely wasted.

[dave mcbride]

Catch this analysis by a non-bills fan. You can argue did he use the right method to evaluate but he certainly is not flat out wrong:

 

Niners Fan shows Bills have sucked at drafting over the last ten years.

 

Actually 2002 - 2009 but close enough to the decade of suck

Fascinating, but I'm calling BS on this. How can Lee Evans be classified as a bust by the author's own logic? In his best year, he had 1300 yards and averaged nearly 16 yards a catch. Moreover, Whitner was a starter in his third season. He was hurt and saw some bench time, but he was definitely the nominal starter. Also, saying Lynch is a bust when he was highly productive in years 1 & 2 is a real stretch. Finally, in McGahee's third year after signing his contract, he had 1247 yards; in his fifth season (final year of his original contract, although I realize it was reworked), he had 1,207 yards for Baltimore.

[renfruzetz]

I picked 4 teams at random (Texans, Saints, Ravens, Seahawks) and looked at first & second rounders from 2005-2008. All 4 teams had a hit rate for starters between 78% and 85%. I was generous with the grades ie McKelvin got half a point as the nickel back. I eliminated a guy from the Ravens who blew out his knee in TC his first season etc.

 

The Bills were a lowly 54% over the same period.

 

It's a tiny sample size but clearly indicates either a lack of talent or poor philosophy in the scouting department.

[dave mcbride]

That was an excellent post (article?) and well worth reading. Apparently, not even Lee Evans was in the top 30% at his position. As for the other players taken in the first round during that span . . .

 

On another note, a guy like Donte Whitner is just barely holding onto his starting spot. Other players like George Wilson and Bryan Scott could do the job about as well as Whitner does. If the Bills had Wilson, Scott, and Byrd, but didn't have Whitner, very little would be gained by adding him. It's unfair to Whitner personally to declare him an outright bust, when he's still starting and making plays for the team. But certainly, the draft pick we used to take him was completely wasted.

It's bs.

[bowery4]

I don't think it's accurate to include in this statement the '10 draftees. But from 05-09, there are 6 guys who probably won't start in 2010.

 

05 WR Parrish (Donahoe) backup WR

06 DL McCargo (Dick Levy) possible TC cut

07 RB Lynch (Dick Levy) Supplanted by UDFA Jackson

08 CB McKelvin (Dick Brandon) Supplanted by UFA Florence

08 WR Hardy (Dick Brandon) 4th on depth chart

09 DE Maybin (Dick Brandon) backup OLB

 

Lynch would probably start for other teams. At the same time, Buffalo had 8 other picks in the first two rounds these past 5 drafts, of which only 3 will most likely start in 2010: S Whitner, LB Posluszny, and G Wood. Hitting on less than 40% of your top picks is why they're consistently mediocre.

 

Making matters worse, they've not found anyone at the premium positions of QB, LT, and pass rusher in that same time. Not coincidentally, the same guy is still running the college scouting department. The more things change, the more they remain the same.

 

I'd like to see 1s and 2s and3s in here as they are the most likely to succeed on most teams, our QB is a 3rd, back up maybe a 2nd

but wouldn't be great if

Parrish broke out all over the place this year under the new system

McCargo did decent (from what I have been reading he is having a good camp) in the past he showed flashes, maybe he just needed last year to happen to kick him in the butt.

Lynch got back to the year before last, he has competition/contracts coming up, I would think pride

Mckelvin will see plenty of field time so he may as well be starting even if he is nickel

Hardy ....... develops (he has time BECAUSE of draft position and age/injury) We give 3 years to coaches and wide outs I think he gets it too. so does Maybin

There is potentional

Really we have been pretty good in the 2nd half (think players like Stevie J and esply Byrd) of the draft too but on a shtty team that is par for the course as someone has to start lol

[BillsVet]

Good points, but I think you're presuming that Modrak is responsible for the top picks. I'm pretty sure that there's an elderly gentleman from Detroit who is making the calls on these picks ...

 

It's sad we have to acknowledge that fact. Only Al Davis is worst, and that's because he doesn't have a GM. Modrak isn't making the final call, but there are others who intercede who shouldn't. DJ was a big part of the problem, in that Levy and Brandon depended on him. HC's shouldn't have as much input in the college scouting process because they're too busy managing the team.

 

erroneous. Must you forget about Byrd and Levitre?

 

You had a nice post aside from that.

 

I did err. So therefore, they've have 11 1st or 2nd round picks from 05-09 and 5 will be starting in 2010: 2 safeties, 2 guards, and one linebacker. Still no pass rushers, QB, or OT's.

[BuffaloBill]

Fascinating, but I'm calling BS on this. How can Lee Evans be classified as a bust by the author's own logic? In his best year, he had 1300 yards and averaged nearly 16 yards a catch. Moreover, Whitner was a starter in his third season. He was hurt and saw some bench time, but he was definitely the nominal starter. Also, saying Lynch is a bust when he was highly productive in years 1 & 2 is a real stretch. Finally, in McGahee's third year after signing his contract, he had 1247 yards; in his fifth season (final year of his original contract, although I realize it was reworked), he had 1,207 yards for Baltimore.

 

 

Actually due to QB situation Evans has not been a top 30% producer. With Whitner it is hard to say as how do you judge the position (typically people would be prone to look at turnovers generated but I do not believe this is in any way accurate). Based on last year - Lynch is not in the top 30%.

 

I am not defending the analysis - if anything I think it is incomplete. What I did find interesting is the fact that the guy probably did not have an agenda to call the Bills out as sucking but that is what he came to. The results on the field over the last ten years certainly suggest the Bills have not made good picks on a consistent basis.