How many 1st and 2nd round picks can you have not starting?

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

There are 32 teams in the league, which means there are 32 starting strong safeties. For Whitner to be in the top 30% of those 32 strong safeties, he needs to be among the ten best at his position.

 

 

If I were YOU, I'd stay out of math-related threads. Just a suggestion....

 

[Cash]

It's possible that the author made an error in excluding Evans from his list of non-busts. I would have to look at the raw data to confirm that for sure, but have no plans to invest that time right now. But even a record of one non-bust, and six busts, still puts us on the same level as the Detroit Lions. So the overall point remains that the Bills have done a very poor job of drafting in the first round.

 

One thing I especially liked about that guy's analysis was that it fully captured the Bills' failure to find any difference-makers in the first round. Sure, there have been some solid starters: guys like Evans and, to a significantly lesser degree, Whitner. But not even Evans is what I would call a difference-maker. To be considered a difference-maker, a WR should be able to consistently produce at a reasonably high level despite double coverage. He should be able to be a threat everywhere on the field, and not just on deep routes.

 

Great point. Wood seems like a solid starter, Lynch would be a solid starter on many teams, Whitner's at least an average starting SS, Evans is probably a better than average starting WR, and that's all fine. But you'd think a team would be able to find an impact player in the first round over the last 10 years or so. Especially since we haven't made the playoffs in that stretch, and thus have been generally picking pretty high.

[apuszczalowski]

Its obvious some of you don't do research here, have any of you read some of the reports from camp? Apparently Whitner is showing exactly why he was chosen at #8 in TC right now.

 

And this all depends on how you judge a "starter". Roscoe Parrish might not be the #1or 2 WR on the depth chart, but he will be the Slot Receiver in this offence. Lynch is not a "backup", the Bills will run a #1a/1b type RB system. Maybin will replace Torbor in passing situations to be used as a Pass rusher in those downs, and McKelvin, although struggling, is the Nickel CB. You can't exactly say that a player isn't a starter or making an impact/have a role if they are going to be used in certain positions/downs.

 

The Bills haven't done a great job drafting, I'm not trying to say that, but they haven't been the worst like some are trying to prove here. Some teams have also had the advantage of picking in the top 5 for multiple years which is alot easier of a spot to pick in then between 10-20. How can people say that teams like the Texans and Rams, and Raiders, and Bucs, for example, have drafted better when they have drafted multiple times in the top ten this last decade?

[LGB]

Its obvious some of you don't do research here, have any of you read some of the reports from camp? Apparently Whitner is showing exactly why he was chosen at #8 in TC right now.

 

And this all depends on how you judge a "starter". Roscoe Parrish might not be the #1or 2 WR on the depth chart, but he will be the Slot Receiver in this offence. Lynch is not a "backup", the Bills will run a #1a/1b type RB system. Maybin will replace Torbor in passing situations to be used as a Pass rusher in those downs, and McKelvin, although struggling, is the Nickel CB. You can't exactly say that a player isn't a starter or making an impact/have a role if they are going to be used in certain positions/downs.

 

The Bills haven't done a great job drafting, I'm not trying to say that, but they haven't been the worst like some are trying to prove here. Some teams have also had the advantage of picking in the top 5 for multiple years which is alot easier of a spot to pick in then between 10-20. How can people say that teams like the Texans and Rams, and Raiders, and Bucs, for example, have drafted better when they have drafted multiple times in the top ten this last decade?

It can never be good when you have to compare your team to the bottom of the barrel...okay, they haven't been the worst at drafting - only close to the worst...or in the top 10 of the worst. Yippee - yahoo!

[LGB]

That was an excellent post (article?) and well worth reading. Apparently, not even Lee Evans was in the top 30% at his position. As for the other players taken in the first round during that span . . .

 

On another note, a guy like Donte Whitner is just barely holding onto his starting spot. Other players like George Wilson and Bryan Scott could do the job about as well as Whitner does. If the Bills had Wilson, Scott, and Byrd, but didn't have Whitner, very little would be gained by adding him. It's unfair to Whitner personally to declare him an outright bust, when he's still starting and making plays for the team. But certainly, the draft pick we used to take him was completely wasted.

given what we know now, Whitner would have made a good second or third round pick. Evans disappeared after the $19 million dollars.

 

I have a question though: given what we know now, who is the best player beside Moorman and Byrd on the team that might make the pro bowl? Is there anyone? Spiller?

[spartacus]

I understand it really doesn't matter if you're winning games, which Buffalo isn't, but

how many teams in the NFL have as many 1st and 2nd round picks not starting?

 

I see:

 

1. Lynch 1st

2. Maybin 1st

3. McLuvin 1st

4. Hardy 2nd

 

Are there others?

Truly, a testament to why having your head of college scouting work from Florida on a part-time basis is not a real good idea.

 

 

 

 

 

[dave mcbride]

There are 32 teams in the league, which means there are 32 starting strong safeties. For Whitner to be in the top 30% of those 32 strong safeties, he needs to be among the ten best at his position.

Um, he didn't say starting. Did you even read the piece? Moreover, if you think smileyman (the author of the piece) actually differentiated between free and strong safeties, there's a bridge in Brooklyn I'd be happy to sell you.

 

Finally, *the 30 percent rule doesn't freaking apply if the guy hasn't played five years*.

 

Seriously, Arm, you're way better than this. You've been proven wrong numerous times in this thread already. Read the piece more closely and you'll see it for the shoddy work that it is. I am by no means defending the Bills' drafts, by the way.

[bowery4]

I don't like the linked article either

Buffalo Bills Draft History 1999-2009 databaseFootball.com

**putting this up here because you have to look at the full draft IMO* I do see the point, but well, more information is better. I also think it doesn't really matter what draft slotting someone has so far as if they improve the team (of course it does in other ways. i.e dollars and future drafts)

 

After looking at it, I think the fact we have no one on the team that we drafted only 8 years ago is a pretty BIG disappointment! and inditment of the FO but the last few years have improved. I think, we will see.

 

2009

Rnd Name College Note

1 Aaron Maybin Penn State for now let's say projected starter lol

1 Eric Wood Louisville tons of upside, good rookie season, fan favorite

2 Jairus Byrd Oregon Pro Bowl rookie season

2 Andy Levitre Oregon State Very good rookie season

4 Shawn Nelson Southern Miss Needs blocking skills, maybe considered projected starter at this point

5 Nic Harris Oklahoma gone

6 Cary Harris Southern Cal gone

7 Ellis Lankster West Virginia played in rookie season because of injury, showed flashes will probably see playing time

 

2008

Rnd Name College Note

1 Leodis McKelvin Troy at least nickel back, projected starter will see lots of playing time

2 James Hardy Indiana step it up Mr Hardy

3 Chris Ellis Virginia Tech Showed nothing so far, having good camp

4 Reggie Corner Akron good player in a deep secondary, at least verygood back up

4 Derek Fine Kansas gone

5 Alvin Bowen Iowa State gone

6 Xavier Omon Northwest Missouri State gone

7 Demetrius Bell Northwest State (LA) Project lots of upside, after last year no where else to go, projected starter

7 Steve Johnson Kentucky beat out TO and Hardy, projected starter, for a 7th good pick on paper

7 Kennard Cox Pittsburgh gone

 

2007

Rnd Name College Note

1 Marshawn Lynch California 2 probowls and lots of off field stuff, player with up and downsides 1b maybe?

2 Paul Posluszny Penn State starter, needs to improve and be injury free

3 Trent Edwards Stanford needs to be a franchise qb, starter, last chance is this season

4 Dwayne Wright Fresno State gone

6 John Wendling Wyoming gone but good player who started

7 Derek Schouman Boise Statehe was replaced by the drafting of Nelson and the signing of Mathews but has shown some stuff stys or goes this year IDK

7 C.J. Ah You Oklahoma gone

 

2006

Rnd Name College Note

1 Donte Whitner Ohio State This is his year according to early camp reports, I hope so. reeeaaaaccchhh in the draft but not"his fault" would love to see this decent player live up to draft position

1 John McCargo North Carolina State who knows, showed flashes has been bad, couldn't be traded (although you have to think Indy wanted him, must be something there) looking good at camp? I have no idea. Time to step up

3 Ashton Youboty Ohio State one of my favorite injury prone players, hope he stays heathy V.G. back up

4 Ko Simpson South Carolina bye bye

5 Kyle Williams Louisiana State wow, a great draft choice!!really hoping he fits the NT position, think he is all good if he does

5 Brad Butler Virginia why did you retire Brad? gone (another good draft choice

6 Keith Ellison Oregon State good player/effort, does he fit the scheeme? will he be cut?

7 Terrance Pennington New Mexico gone

7 Aaron Merz California gone

 

2005

Rnd Name College Note

2 Roscoe Parrish Miami (FL) really time to step up!!

3 Kevin Everett Miami (FL) gone, sorry to say

4 Duke Preston Illinois gone

5 Eric King Wake Forest gone

6 Justin Geisinger Vanderbilt gone

7 Lionel Gates Louisville gone

 

2004

Rnd Name College Note

1 Lee Evans Wisconsin best wr on the team needs to be better but not bad

1 J.P. Losman Tulane gone thank god

3 Tim Anderson Ohio State gone

4 Tim Euhus Oregon State gone

7 Dylan McFarland Montana gone

7 Jonathan Smith Georgia Tech gone

 

2003

Rnd Name College Note

1 Willis McGahee Miami (FL) gone thank god!! although he fits on another team well

2 Chris Kelsay Nebraska mr step up this year, not as bad as he is painted but not great either cosidering draft position

3 Angelo Crowell Virginia gone, was good on a average/below average team but I liked the guy

4 Terrence McGee Northwestern State very good 4th round pick love his past hope there is more tp come

4 Sam Aiken North Carolina gone

5 Ben Sobieski Iowa gone

6 Lauvale Sape Utah gone

7 Mario Haggan Mississippi State gone

 

2002

Rnd Name College Note

1 Mike Williams Texas long gone, now can we forget him finally

OK, ALL THE REST ARE GONE. HERE IS A REAL PROBLEM, THIS IS ONLY 8 YEARS AGO!!!! WE NEED TO KEEP PLAYERS THIS LONG TO BE SUCCESSFUL!!

2 Josh Reed Louisiana State

2 Ryan Denney Brigham Young

3 Coy Wire Stanford

5 Justin Bannan Colorado

6 Kevin Thomas UNLV

7 Mike Pucillo Auburn

7 Rodney Wright Fresno State

7 Jarrett Ferguson Virginia Tech

7 Dominique Stevenson Tennessee

 

2001

Rnd Name College Note

1 Nate Clements Ohio State

2 Aaron Schobel Texas Christian

2 Travis Henry Tennessee

3 Ron Edwards Texas A&M

3 Jonas Jennings Georgia

4 Brandon Spoon North Carolina

5 Marques Sullivan Illinois

6 Tony Driver Notre Dame

6 Dan O'Leary Notre Dame

6 Jimmy Williams Vanderbilt

7 Reggie Germany Ohio State

7 Tyrone Robertson Hinds J.C. (MI)

 

2000

Rnd Name College Note

1 Erik Flowers Arizona State

2 Travares Tillman Georgia Tech

3 Corey Moore Virginia Tech

4 Avion Black Tennessee State

5 Sammy Morris Texas Tech

6 Leif Larsen Texas-El Paso

7 Drew Haddad Buffalo

7 DaShon Polk Arizona

 

1999

Rnd Name College Note

1 Antoine Winfield Ohio State

2 Peerless Price Tennessee

3 Shawn Bryson Tennessee

4 Keith Newman North Carolina

4 Bobby Collins North Alabama

5 Jay Foreman Nebraska

6 Armon Hatcher Oregon State

7 Sheldon Jackson Nebraska

7 Bryce Fisher Air Force

[Orton's Arm]

Um, he didn't say starting. Did you even read the piece? Moreover, if you think smileyman (the author of the piece) actually differentiated between free and strong safeties, there's a bridge in Brooklyn I'd be happy to sell you.

 

Finally, *the 30 percent rule doesn't freaking apply if the guy hasn't played five years*.

 

Seriously, Arm, you're way better than this. You've been proven wrong numerous times in this thread already. Read the piece more closely and you'll see it for the shoddy work that it is. I am by no means defending the Bills' drafts, by the way.

Not only did I read the piece, I downloaded the spreadsheet.

 

Before I go any further, I want to refresh people's memory about the three criteria he used:

 

Criterion 1: Whether the player was a starter after three years.

Criterion 2: Whether the player was a starter in the last year of his rookie contract

Criterion 3: Whether the player was in the top 30% at his position.

 

If you look at the sheet for 2006, you will see that Whitner was considered a bust by criteria 1 and 3, while criterion 2 was NA. (Criterion 2 was NA for all the first rounders drafted that year, as they're not yet at the end of their rookie contracts.) That demonstrates that the 30% rule does apply, even if the player hasn't yet reached the end of his rookie contract. Open the spreadsheet yourself if you don't believe me.

 

As for whether the 30% rules applies to just starters at a given position, or all the players at a position: barring any statements to the contrary, it is reasonable to believe the former. Lee Evans was considered a bust based on criterion 3. While Evans might not be in the top 30% among starting WRs, it's absurd to suggest that he isn't in the top 30% among all WRs (starters and backups lumped together). The only way Evans fails criterion 3 is if he's looking just at starters.

[JohnC]

The best way to judge the drafting ability of a team over a period of time is through its record. The Bills' record reflects its talent level: mediocre.

[dave mcbride]

Not only did I read the piece, I downloaded the spreadsheet.

 

Before I go any further, I want to refresh people's memory about the three criteria he used:

 

Criterion 1: Whether the player was a starter after three years.

Criterion 2: Whether the player was a starter in the last year of his rookie contract

Criterion 3: Whether the player was in the top 30% at his position.

 

If you look at the sheet for 2006, you will see that Whitner was considered a bust by criteria 1 and 3, while criterion 2 was NA. (Criterion 2 was NA for all the first rounders drafted that year, as they're not yet at the end of their rookie contracts.) That demonstrates that the 30% rule does apply, even if the player hasn't yet reached the end of his rookie contract. Open the spreadsheet yourself if you don't believe me.

 

As for whether the 30% rules applies to just starters at a given position, or all the players at a position: barring any statements to the contrary, it is reasonable to believe the former. Lee Evans was considered a bust based on criterion 3. While Evans might not be in the top 30% among starting WRs, it's absurd to suggest that he isn't in the top 30% among all WRs (starters and backups lumped together). The only way Evans fails criterion 3 is if he's looking just at starters.

 

You appear to have a reading comprehension problem. To wit:

 

"The first thing I had to do was come up with some sort of reasonable definition of bust. For me a first round pick should come in and be an almost immediate starter for you. They should also be a long term starter for you--if you have a guy that only plays for one or two seasons for you that's a waste of a pick. I also think that a first round pick should be better than most of the rest of the league. Here's how I decided to grade the players.

 

Criteria #1--Are they a starter by their 3rd season?

Criteria #2--If they were a starter during their 3rd season are they still a starter during the last year of their original contract? (Generally the 4th or 5th season)

Criteria #3--If they met criteria from #1 and #2 were they in the top 30% at their position?

 

With the top 30% rule I tried to be as generous as possible. For players with stats (basically everybody but offensive lineman), I used their best year and their best statistical category. For offensive linemen I had to dig a little deeper. Profootballfocus has rankings from 2007 through 2009 so I used those to help determine a player's ranking. For players not in that database I hasd to do some searching to see how they were viewed during their playing days."

 

In 2006, Lee Evans finished sixth in receiving yards.

[Hplarrm]

"The first thing I had to do was come up with some sort of reasonable definition of bust. For me a first round pick should come in and be an almost immediate starter for you.

I would only have to guess at what it is right now, but 3 or so years back I took the time to take and in depth look at the previous year's draft class (which many pundits seem to feel was a pretty strong class) at the beginning of the next year to see how that class did as far as producing starters.

 

I found that only slightly above 50% of the 32 first round choices (I think it was 17 or 18 players were first on their team's depth chart at their position even after one year of play. Some of this was probably due to injury (though after an off-season of healing the depth charts tended to reflect where a player was expected to be) but in general, I think it is simply a fantasy that a 1st round pick is going to be an immediate starter.

 

There was a strong bias in performance of players in that player picked in the top 10 were in fact starters, but this makes perfect sense in that these were the best players in the entire draft and they were generally playing for the weakest teams.

 

However, basically across the board, rookies all say that the one thing which surprised them about becoming a pro was how fast the players were and thus how much faster the play was (in terms of decision-making). It simply takes time for even the best college players who routinely made their opponents seem to be playing in cement shoes, suddenly gets reduced to merely be a very good human being rather than a superhero when they come to the pro game.

 

It is simply reality that very good athletes never get it, that very good players take a while before they perform consistently well and in outrider cases that a perennial Pro Bowler like Eric Moulds can produce results his fist two seasons which were quite bust like, but then become a perennial Pro Bowl quality player.

 

Like it or not, even though Mel Kiper and ESPN has conspired with the NFL to sell folks a bill of goods that college players can be nearly perfectly assessed as to how they will perform as pro, the draft remains for the most part a crap shoot. Every year there are gonna be a couple of top ten players who turn out to be Ryan Leaf, Mike Williams, or a JaMarcus Russel and get paid millions to stink up the joint. There also are gonna be a few Jason Peters who do not even get drafted but a few years later make the Pro Bowl.

 

I think you can pretty much throw out any assessments of players drafted in 2010, 2009, and 2008 which make a suggestion other than arguing what the best way to keep developing that player is going to be. Almost always the right answer is going to be either stay the course or give them another chance.

[stuckincincy]

I would only have to guess at what it is right now, but 3 or so years back I took the time to take and in depth look at the previous year's draft class (which many pundits seem to feel was a pretty strong class) at the beginning of the next year to see how that class did as far as producing starters.

 

I found that only slightly above 50% of the 32 first round choices (I think it was 17 or 18 players were first on their team's depth chart at their position even after one year of play. Some of this was probably due to injury (though after an off-season of healing the depth charts tended to reflect where a player was expected to be) but in general, I think it is simply a fantasy that a 1st round pick is going to be an immediate starter.

 

There was a strong bias in performance of players in that player picked in the top 10 were in fact starters, but this makes perfect sense in that these were the best players in the entire draft and they were generally playing for the weakest teams.

 

However, basically across the board, rookies all say that the one thing which surprised them about becoming a pro was how fast the players were and thus how much faster the play was (in terms of decision-making). It simply takes time for even the best college players who routinely made their opponents seem to be playing in cement shoes, suddenly gets reduced to merely be a very good human being rather than a superhero when they come to the pro game.

 

It is simply reality that very good athletes never get it, that very good players take a while before they perform consistently well and in outrider cases that a perennial Pro Bowler like Eric Moulds can produce results his fist two seasons which were quite bust like, but then become a perennial Pro Bowl quality player.

 

Like it or not, even though Mel Kiper and ESPN has conspired with the NFL to sell folks a bill of goods that college players can be nearly perfectly assessed as to how they will perform as pro, the draft remains for the most part a crap shoot. Every year there are gonna be a couple of top ten players who turn out to be Ryan Leaf, Mike Williams, or a JaMarcus Russel and get paid millions to stink up the joint. There also are gonna be a few Jason Peters who do not even get drafted but a few years later make the Pro Bowl.

 

I think you can pretty much throw out any assessments of players drafted in 2010, 2009, and 2008 which make a suggestion other than arguing what the best way to keep developing that player is going to be. Almost always the right answer is going to be either stay the course or give them another chance.

 

Thoughtful post.

[OldTimer1960]

Honestly who cares who starts.. as long as they all make an impact. I think everyone listed will make an impact this year except McKelvin.. er McLovin..

 

Of the bunch, I see McKelvin as the least-bust-like. He is very talented, missed most of last year due to injury and is behind a very good veteran in Florence. Maybin concerns me more in that he is behind a career backup, but he is only 21 and would only be going into his Sr year in college now.

 

I do count McCargo as a bust late in round one, but it is hard to fault them for taking him. He was pretty highly thought of

coming out. It isn't like he didn't have supporters and most likely would have gone in the next 10 picks if the Bills hadn't

taken him.

 

Look at recent can't-miss prospects like DTs Ryan Sims, Kentwan Balmer and Phillip Merling for evidence that 1st round pick doesn't necessarily equal good player.

[LGB]

Of the bunch, I see McKelvin as the least-bust-like. He is very talented, missed most of last year due to injury and is behind a very good veteran in Florence. Maybin concerns me more in that he is behind a career backup, but he is only 21 and would only be going into his Sr year in college now.

 

I do count McCargo as a bust late in round one, but it is hard to fault them for taking him. He was pretty highly thought of

coming out. It isn't like he didn't have supporters and most likely would have gone in the next 10 picks if the Bills hadn't

taken him.

 

Look at recent can't-miss prospects like DTs Ryan Sims, Kentwan Balmer and Phillip Merling for evidence that 1st round pick doesn't necessarily equal good player.

It might be good to have a rookie salary cap to lessen some of the guaranteed money on these unproven picks at the pro level?

[Thoner7]

Having our goofy owner involved in any way in player evaluation and drafting is a recipe for disaster, as he has demonstrated. The best thing this owner can do is stay back in his office and count his pile of money. The worst thing this owner can do is to get involved in anything associated with football. Any advice on personnel that the owner has should be smiled at and then ignored.

 

That hasnt stopped the Cowboys from having one of the most talented rosters in the league. ALthough you are spot on with Rlph and others - Jerry Jones is absolutely the exception.

 

But putting all of the bickering that this thread has spurred aside, is anyone going to argue that the Bills havent drafted terribly over the past 10 years? I didnt think so.

[Thoner7]

Of the bunch, I see McKelvin as the least-bust-like. He is very talented, missed most of last year due to injury and is behind a very good veteran in Florence. Maybin concerns me more in that he is behind a career backup, but he is only 21 and would only be going into his Sr year in college now.

 

I do count McCargo as a bust late in round one, but it is hard to fault them for taking him. He was pretty highly thought of

coming out. It isn't like he didn't have supporters and most likely would have gone in the next 10 picks if the Bills hadn't

taken him.

 

Look at recent can't-miss prospects like DTs Ryan Sims, Kentwan Balmer and Phillip Merling for evidence that 1st round pick doesn't necessarily equal good player.

 

Horribly inaccurate.

[Thurman#1]

This is an pointless argument. Let's assume every player you draft is a bust, but every player you sign as an UDFA turns out to be a Pro Bowler? In the end, does it matter one lick how a player wound up on your team as long as they help you win?

 

PTR

 

 

 

As long as you win. Which has been a problem for us, for like ten years.

 

And this year too, if most pundits are to be believed. I don't see tons of terrific FAs either.

 

But as long as that lack of drafting success turns around, starting, oh, last year or the year before, and continuing into the future, there shouldn't be any major problems with this team, starting maybe as soon as next year but more likely 2012.

 

Just my opinion. As always, it's too soon to call people busts till at least their third year, so some of those guys might yet see the light go on in the attic. And we haven't seen the starters finalized yet, so who knows, all of the guys the OP cited might yet start. I doubt it, but it's possible for several of them, and for positions where we're platooning, like RB and DL, saying the guy isn't starting misses the point. Platoon guys are absolutely crucial at platoon positions, they're not the same as second-stringers at all.

[Thurman#1]

Horribly inaccurate.

 

 

 

On the contrary, at the time, a team two or three spots back came out publicly saying they would have taken him. I don't remember which team, but at the time it made me excited. Now I just figure two or more teams thought too highly of him. But he was going to be picked very soon.

[Thurman#1]

given what we know now, Whitner would have made a good second or third round pick. Evans disappeared after the $19 million dollars.

 

 

On the contrary. Evans disappeared after the QB who would throw him the ball disappeared.

 

I listened to the radio coverage last year, every game, and I must have heard Kelso say 30 times "Lee Evans was open downfield but I don't know if Trent didn't see him or what, but he hit the safety valve for three yards." Again and again. WRs more than maybe any other position, are absolutely dependent on other positions for stats and opportunities.

 

Lee got open again and again, and nobody threw him the ball.