Better, worse, or the same?

[CodeMonkey]

Also, Code Monkey, why wouldn't Spiller improve the return game?

Assuming he even returns kicks, which is not a given, we already have very good return guys. I don't see us getting much better than we already were. Plus there are much more to special teams that just returning kicks. He does not help in those other areas at all. Net result = SAME.

[5 Wide]

I actually think the LB's are going to be much improved. Every time I saw the Bills play an Andre Davis team, i thought about how much I hated that guy..... hit hard, not much for YAC, and he had a swagger. I really think Davis' ability to recognize run plays and fit them up is going to be a huge upgrade. Last year, we had Ellison playing at 220, and would get blown off plays. At least you will have a 260 Kelsay in there instead to create a better physical matchup. My key to this though is how Davis is going to make this squad better, the guy is a solid player.

[MattyT]

I actually think the LB's are going to be much improved. Every time I saw the Bills play an Andre Davis team, i thought about how much I hated that guy..... hit hard, not much for YAC, and he had a swagger. I really think Davis' ability to recognize run plays and fit them up is going to be a huge upgrade. Last year, we had Ellison playing at 220, and would get blown off plays. At least you will have a 260 Kelsay in there instead to create a better physical matchup. My key to this though is how Davis is going to make this squad better, the guy is a solid player.

I like him too for these reasons and hope you're right.

[Buffalonian-at-Heart]

I think the D line is better, much better. I know it's a totally different scheme, but teams will have a much harder time running the ball on us this year.

[mc kid]

I hope they are. In fact I'm certain the Dolphins will feel like they are playing pre-season game #5 when they arrive at RWS. That would be perfect.

 

PTR

The Dolphins will lose that game-_just have feeling

[kasper13]

What about the other teams? Just look at the AFC East. Patriots? Can't beat them. Jets? Alleged to be a SB contender. Miami? Better than last season. Assume the Bills will be better coached, better conditioned and marginally better on defense - all maybes. The offense looks like it will be worse than last year. Intangibles? What if Spiller is a long holdout? You can rationalize, surmise, wish and hope for 8-8. Not going to happen. That has been the decade long problem. They have been just average or below average. Why do we want that again? They are rebuilding. Let them suck really bad and get the 1st pick. Trade some aging veterans for draft picks, dump some others that have never done anything. Really rebuild. Shoot for a contender in 2012, not for another 5-11 or 6-10 disappointment in 2010.

[milehiLou]

i like your moves.

 

if i go back for my masters, will you type my papers for me?

[milehiLou]

i wasnt totally in love with perry fewell as def coord, but at least we knew what he was bringing....my biggest concern is a rookie d-coord.

 

luckily that is disguised in the form of no number one qb, defense changing to a new formatiion, questions along the offensive line, blah blah blah...etc....

[mpl6876]

I thought I was being fairly conservative. Why don't you give your ratings and reasons for comparison purposes. Obviously there are variables. Injuries, breakout rookies, etc. But based on what you've seen from last year, how do the Bills look now?

 

PTR

 

I do agree that you were quite conservative in your ratings.

 

I believe the Bills are going to struggle on both sides of the ball. New offense, new defense, new coaches, and still lack experience and talent especially at QB, OL, WR, and OLB positions. I have concerns about our pass rush and our ability to stop the run too.

 

That's my breakdown.

[Mark Vader]

QB: Same- This position is where we will see how much of a difference Gailey's approach is than Jauron's was. I really think it is between Edwards & Brohm on who the starter will be, and in the end I see Edwards starting against the Dolphins.

 

RB: Better- The addition of Spiller makes the Bills running game a major force in the NFL. Fred Jackson should be the starter and if Lynch can keep his cool and play ball the offense should get a lot more time of possession.

 

WR: Worse- On paper it is worse, but their is reason to be optimistic. James Hardy will have a lot of pressure to produce, Steve Johnson will get more of an opportunity and the addition of Marcus Easley brings intrigue. Aside from Hardy, Roscoe Parrish also has a chance to prove himself.

 

TE: Same- The only question here is who will get cut? Michael Matthews was brought in by Gailey so he should make it. All eyes are on Shawn Nelson to become a big contributor.

 

OL: Better- While the O-Line is almost identical from last year, it is better because of the experience that Bell, Levitre, Hangartner & Wood have gotten as a unit. Cornell Green adds experience and brings a veteran presence to the line, if he plays solid the Line will be just fine. The depth is a concern as there are more rookies and pratice squad players on the roster than veterans.

 

DL: Worse- Switching to the 3-4 defense affects the D-Line the most. Plenty of questions in this area. Kyle Williams at NT & Marcus Stroud at DE are the biggest question marks. The addition of Dwan Edwards will help and rookie Torrell Troup is an intriguing prospect. If Aaron Schobel does return it will be a big boost. Schobel did play in a 3-4 with the Bills as a DE his first two years. Rookie Alex Carrington should see significant playing time.

 

LB: Better- Getting Kawika Mitchell back and the addition of veterans Andra Davis & Reggie Torbor are helpful. Plenty of pressure will be on Aaron Maybin to produce, and the switch of former DE's Chris Kelsay & Chris Ellis will be vital. There is plenty of young depth and good prospects.

 

DB: Better- While the group is virtually the same, it is the best unit on the team. The return of Terrence McGee & Leodis McKelvin will be great. The depth is vast at CB with Florence, Corner & Youboty all back. Safety Jairus Byrd has a year of experience under his belt and George Wilson could challenge for the starting Strong spot. The only problem in this area is, who do the Bills cut? Veteran Bryan Scott might be the odd man out.

 

ST: Same- Lindell & Moorman are still good at what they do. Parrish should be back at PR, but KR is undecided. Will it be McKelvin, Spiller or someone else?

 

Coaching: Better- No more Dick Jauron, that alone is an improvement. Chan Gailey has brought in a new scheme on defense and plans to a more run-oriented offense. His attitude could get the Bills back to respectability.

[John from Riverside]

LBs wont be better.

 

With McGees injury I dont see DBs being better either.

 

ST wont be better bc we lost April and no way our new coach is as good as him.

 

I would like to know why LB's wont be better.....

 

The linebackers are going to be better simply because of the changes made in down linemen in front of them AND we are not counting on undersized linebackers that cant tackle

 

- Real Beef up front plus linbackers that have size and can thump = BETTER

[PromoTheRobot]

Thanks to all. Once you break down each individual area of the team, it's very hard to see how the Bills got worse than 2009. Being ranked #31 is total BS. It's more like media people being pissed that the Bills didn't do what they said they had to do (draft a QB and LT) so now they are hammering them.

 

PTR

[NoSaint]

I think you can say QB is improved, but by how much -- who knows.

 

A)essentially you have traded Hamdan for Brohm and Brown. I think those are a step up. I know Brohm finished the year on the roster, but a qb picked up mid season can not be taken seriously.

 

B)Van Pelt was our QB coach, OC, and had no oversight offensively. Even if you chalk QB up to Gailey alone, there should be an improvement.

[BillsVet]

What about the other teams? Just look at the AFC East. Patriots? Can't beat them. Jets? Alleged to be a SB contender. Miami? Better than last season. Assume the Bills will be better coached, better conditioned and marginally better on defense - all maybes. The offense looks like it will be worse than last year. Intangibles? What if Spiller is a long holdout? You can rationalize, surmise, wish and hope for 8-8. Not going to happen. That has been the decade long problem. They have been just average or below average. Why do we want that again? They are rebuilding. Let them suck really bad and get the 1st pick. Trade some aging veterans for draft picks, dump some others that have never done anything. Really rebuild. Shoot for a contender in 2012, not for another 5-11 or 6-10 disappointment in 2010.

 

When fans here say the Bills will be better based on what they've done, it's really a narrow-minded perspective The Bills do not exist in a vacuum. Other teams, especially AFCE teams, seem better and the NFCN and AFCN aren't bad either.

 

It's almost as if Buffalo does what they need to avoid bottoming out, but don't do enough to get to the next level. I would tend to agree that going 6-10 or 7-9 does very little, no matter who the GM or HC are. And after 10 seasons of disappointment, maybe hitting rock bottom would do this organization some good. You can't hype much when the team is 3-13 or 4-12.

[Trader]

When fans here say the Bills will be better based on what they've done, it's really a narrow-minded perspective The Bills do not exist in a vacuum. Other teams, especially AFCE teams, seem better and the NFCN and AFCN aren't bad either.

 

It's almost as if Buffalo does what they need to avoid bottoming out, but don't do enough to get to the next level. I would tend to agree that going 6-10 or 7-9 does very little, no matter who the GM or HC are. And after 10 seasons of disappointment, maybe hitting rock bottom would do this organization some good. You can't hype much when the team is 3-13 or 4-12.

 

Agreed. The Bills will be better but at this stage it appears that the have lost ground to their competitors in the AFC.

[jahnyc]

1. I think we may have the worst group of offensive tackles in the NFL. It will be hard to develop a consistent offense with this glaring weakness.

 

2. After Evans, our WRs are very weak (in part due to inexperience and not knowing whether they are starting caliber).

 

3. Enough has been said about the QB position, but the Bills do not have a QB on the roster that can rally the team from being down with his play.

 

4. As others have pointed out there will be significant adjustments to the new schemes on offense and defense. I believe Gailey over time will improve the offense, notwithstanding the above issues. On defense, while there is some talent, I am not sure that the transition to the 3-4 will be smooth or timely.

 

5. I like Gailey, but I am not sure about some of the coaches. We will see. While many of us had issues with DJ, some of his assistants were well thought of in the NFL.

[bills_believer]

There is so much negativity about the Bills, most of which I feel is totally absurd. So I'm going to break down various aspects of the Bills going into 2010 and ask you are they better, worse, or the same at that position. Ready play? Let's begin with the offense...

 

QB:

2009-Trent/Fitz/Brohm

2010-Trent/Fitz/Brohm/Brown

 

We bring back the same 3 QB's from last year plus add a rookie in the draft. It's obvious to me based on the amount of work Levi brown got in OTA's that he has his ticket to the practice squad stamped.

 

Result = SAME

 

RB:

2009-Jackson/Lynch/Omon/McIntyre

2010-Jackson/Spiller/Lynch/Bell etc.

 

The Bills ranked 16th in rushing offense in 2009. They add the most exciting, explosive RB in the 2010 draft.

 

Result = BETTER

 

WR:

2009-Evans/Owens/Reed/Hardy etc.

2010-Evans/Hardy/Johnson/Easley etc.

 

T.O. and Josh Reed accounted for almost half of the Bills 2515 passing yards in 2009. Both are gone. While Easley and other rookies have looked good, and CJ Spiller is expected to contribute in passing situations, being rookies their impact is hard to anticipate.

 

Result = WORSE

 

TE:

2009-Nelson/Schouman/Fine/Stupar

2010-Nelson/Schouman/Stupar/Matthews

 

Among the many players on IR last year were Fine and Schouman. Schouman returns. Blocking TE Matthews is added, Nelson will hopefully continue to develop.

 

Result = SAME

 

OL:

2009-Hangartner/Wood/Levitre/Butler/Bell/Jon Scott etc.

2010-Hangartner/Wood/Levitre/Bell/Green/Wang etc.

 

It's hard to be any worse than the Bills O-line in 2009. Making matters worse were almost weekly injuries that forced the team to literally grab any able body left. Key players like Wood and Bell return from injury. Butler retired. Cornell Green picked up in FA. Wang drafted. Even though this is essentially the same group as 2009, having worked together in OTAs and camp has to bring improvement.

 

Result = SAME

 

Now let's look at the defense...

 

DL:

2009-Schobel/Stroud/Williams/Denney/Kelsay/Maybin/McCargo/Ellis etc.

2010-Stroud/Williams/Troup/Dwan Edwards/Carrington/Harvey/McCargo

 

This front played stout but wore down being on the filed so much. Had trouble against the run. 4-3 Tampa-2 a bad match in many games. Bills switch to a 3-4 in 2010. Add several rookies and one FA. Lose Schobel to retirement.

 

Result = WORSE

 

LB:

2009-Poz/Mitchell/Ellison/Palmer/Harris/Buggs/Corto etc.

2010-Poz/Mitchell/Ellison/Torbor/Andra Davis/Batten/Coleman/several former DE's like Kelsay and Ellis etc

 

The Bills LB corps had almost as many injuries as the OL and the team was forced to grab anyone to field a team by the end of 2009. Hard to judge 2010 with new 3-4 system but getting Mitchell back from IR should help. Davis and Torbor have experience in 3-4.

 

Result = SAME

 

DB:

2009-McGee/McKelvin/Wilson./Whitner/Florence/Byrd/Scott/Yobouty etc.

2010-McGee/McKelvin/Wilson./Whitner/Florence/Byrd/Scott/Yobouty etc.

 

DB is the one area where the Bills were strong in 2009. Almost no changes in 2010 except CB's McGee and and McKelvin return from IR.

 

Result = BETTER.

 

Special teams:

2009-Lindell/Moorman/McKelvin/Parrish/Jackson

2010-Lindell/Moorman/McKelvin/Parrish/Spiller

 

Solid punter and kicker return. Kick returner McKelvin returns. Explosive CJ Spiller added to return team.

 

Result = BETTER

 

Coaching:

2009-Jauron/Van Pelt/Fewell/April etc.

2010-Gailey/Modkins/Edwards/Dehaven

 

Fewell and April were solid. Van Pelt and Jauron were a complete joke. Van Pelt has an excuse being thrown into the job at the last second. Jauron may have earned his place in the Bills ex-coaches hall of shame next to Hank Bullough and Kay Stephenson. While Modkins is young he will apprentice under offensive master Gailey. Edwards has a decent resume in the 3-4.

 

Result = BETTER

 

So in short, the Bills improved Coaching. Special Teams, DBs, and RBs. They got worse in DL and WR. They stayed the same in OL, QB, TE and LB. So to me the Bills did not become a worse team overall in 2010. They improved. If the Jauron-led Bills could win 6-7 games, based on my analysis, I don't see why the Gailey-led Bills can't win at least 8 games, if not 9.

 

PTR

 

I agree that 8 wins is a reasonable projection.

 

I think Gailey will make a huge difference as coach and especially for the offense. I think there will be a night and day difference for Edwards and the other players on the offense.

 

The defense concerns me some. A rookie Defensive Coordinator and the front seven making a transition to a 3-4. I don't think anyone can really predict how well the individual players will transition. Hopefully they have spent enough draft choices on the defense and signed enough free agents that they will find the people they need to fill the spots needed for a successful transition to the 3-4

[Thurman#1]

You don't think Bruce Dehaven is as good as Bobby April?

 

 

 

No. No, I don't. April is the best STs coach in the game, IMHO, with nobody real close. DeHaven is top five, so it's not like we're falling into the depths, but I don't think his comment will draw many blinks like yours. April was terrific.

[Wing Man]

Sorry to offend, but I'd take DeHaven over April at this point IMHO. April's special team looked lost after the rule change eliminating the wedge technique. April never seemed to find a working alternative to create major return yardage. I acknowledge that he was stripped of quality special teamers by incompetent football management, but he rarely showed any skill to overcome.

 

DeHaven is at least as good as April, and he gets CJ Spiller to make what should be a huge contribution. I expect he will return at least 3 kickoffs and punts this season for TD as long as he stays healthy. Spiller could conceivably be riding the bench more often than not in the RB spot in his rookie season, but I expect him to be huge on special teams.

[Thurman#1]

Some other variables that need to be factored in (even though there is no way to scientifically say we are better/worse and how many wins this will translate into):

 

1. Playing time at positions - you may deem a given player "better" at a position, but if he's a rookie or new to the position we have no idea whether this pereceived increase in actual talent means anything

 

2. New schemes - like #1 above, but even if you have played a given spot before, what happens when the whole scheme changes, like going from a 4-3 to a 3-4? Remember what happened to Warren Sapp when they changed schemes? He went from a monster to a nobody.

 

3. Schedule - if Buffalo was the only one making any roster changes and we played the exact same opponents as we did last year we might be able to gauge whether they would win more or less games than they did last year by looking only at the Bills, but the Bills are only half of the equation. Unfortunately, I think the schedule got tougher and the teams in our division got stronger.

 

 

 

Pretty much what I was going to say.

 

I thought PTR's positional rankings were pretty good, though I might disagree at one or two positions, and on coaching, where I think Gailey will be an upgrade but I'm far from sold on a lot of his positional coaches. But it was reasonable. But our division got a lot tougher this year and we have a tough schedule outside the division too, though things change. Last year things were pretty easy for us, particularly playing against Indy's farm team.

 

I think implementing the 3 - 4 is going to take a year or two. Although my outlook just improved with the addition of Schobel. I had thought 3 wins was a possibility, though I expected more like 5. If Schobel can play OLB, we'll be able to get much more pressure on QBs than we had any reasonable chance to expect without him.

 

Him coming back is big.