Kyle Williams Top Playmaker In League At His Position?

[strive_for_five_guy]

This is from Chris Brown at BB.com today.

 

 

DT Williams tops as playmaker

By Chris Brown - Posted May 11, 2010 – 8:00 am

 

Looks like Aaron Schobel isn’t the only Bills player with league best playmaking ability at his position.

 

On Monday we showed how AdvancedNFLStats determined playmaking ability through new statistical models that measure WPA or positive win probability added and EPA or positive expected points added.

 

“+WPA” and “+EPA” add up the value of every sack, interception, pass defense, forced fumble or recovery, and every tackle or assist that results in a setback for the offense.

 

What these stats measure ultimately is playmaking ability.

 

For 2009 Aaron Schobel ranked number one among defensive ends in this statistical model. Kyle Williams was also the top ranked performer at his position, defensive tackle.

 

Williams not only had the highest WPA, but he highest EPA as well. His WPA of 1.99 was far and away the top mark as was his EPA of 54.1. Atlanta’s Jordan Babineaux was second in both categories (1.67 and 46).

 

Williams was also number one in tackle factor (1.33), which goes far beyond measuring just the number of tackles accumulated by a player. Philadelphia’s Mike Patterson was second (1.27).

 

Here’s the top 15 list of DT playmaking ability and it should be noted that Bills DT Marcus Stroud ranked 10th, despite a season in which he played through three different nagging injuries.

 

95-K.Williams BUF

95-J.Babineaux ATL

90-D.Dockett ARZ

94-J.Smith SF

93-K.Williams MIN

90-J.Ratliff DAL

92-A.Haynesworth WAS

96-T.Knighton JAX

95-A.Adams CHI

99-M.Stroud BUF

75-V.Wilfork NE

92-R.Ayodele NO

94-P.Williams MIN

90-D.Muir IND

68-E.Foster IND

 

I know Williams has a high motor, but come on. Reading BB.com is like reading a George Orwell novel.

[spartacus]

This is what it says:

"+WPA" and "+EPA" add up the value of every sack, interception, pass defense, forced fumble or recovery, and every tackle or assist that results in a setback for the offense.

 

What these stats measure ultimately is playmaking ability.

 

So, yeah, the more plays, the higher probability for more success. However, being on the field more than the Jets as in your example also means the possibility for more screw-ups, which it seems didn't happen in the cases of Williams and Stroud.

 

I think Nixley probably analyzed the play in a fashion similar to this study, which might have led them to change to the 3-4, with bigger LBs. Whatever the reason, the D looks to be more smash mouth than speedy, little guys going into this season.

 

interesting that this stat totally ignores all bad plays.

 

so on a 12 play drive, a player could be out of position, get manhandled, and generally screwup on 11 of the plays, but fall on a RB who slipped behind the line and get bonus points as a playmaker.

[Thurman#1]

Filing under "How Statistics can Completely Misrepresent Reality"

 

 

Or perhaps under "How Statistics, Valid Or Not, Are Often Disbelieved By People Whose Prejudices Aren't Backed Up By The Results."

[Thurman#1]

I was more surprised by the Stroud rating. But, yeah - having Williams is great, especially with Troupe. I love our front seven on defense now. Formation wise - we've got a nice run stuffing group and a really nice looking (potentially, of course) pass rushing group. If Troupe is as high motor as they say - and Williams is, as we know - imagine both of them getting ample opportunity for rest each game - and our whole front seven being rotated. I'm excited.

 

 

Our front seven is our biggest weakness. Virtually all of them are rookies or guys playing positions they've never played before.

[Thurman#1]

Man I hope someone told those OLBs that there not on the roster. They could probably be doing other things.

 

 

You mean like playing positions for which they are a fit?

 

His point wasn't that nobody on the roster has an "OLB" after their name, just that the guys who have "OLB" after their name either don't fit the position or have never even remotely proven that they can play it.

[Rico]

Or perhaps under "How Statistics, Valid Or Not, Are Often Disbelieved By People Whose Prejudices Aren't Backed Up By The Results."

"Stats Are For Losers" really says it all.

[Thurman#1]

We had our two DT in the top 10 and yet we were ranked 31st against the RUN !!!!!!

 

 

In a gap fill defense, one guy misses his assignment and it's a big gainer even if everyone else handled it perfectly.

[Thurman#1]

If you use your eyes you know Kyle Williams is a good but not great player. Stats in football aren't like baseball you have to consider the circumstances not every snap is a static event that can gather stats from.

 

 

 

 

Profootballfocus.com has Kyle Williams as the 13th best DT last year out of 87, based on studying game tape. He's just an excellent player. Now, he's playing a different role this season, so we'll have to see if he can continue that, but he was an excellent penetrator last year.

[Thurman#1]

"Stats Are For Losers" really says it all.

 

 

 

Yeah, totally. They mean nothing. That's why if you look at all the great players in NFL history they all have lousy stats. Bruce Smith for instance. Lousy stats. Joe Montana ... crappy stats.

 

Same with bad players. They all have terrific stats. JaMarcus Russell was in the top 5 of most statistical categories, wasn't he?

 

Stats only show what happened on the field. Great players have great stats. Bad players have bad stats. People who go on about stats do so because their eyes tell them something different. 99.9% of the time, that means their eyes are wrong. But try telling them that.

[Rico]

Yeah, totally. They mean nothing. That's why if you look at all the great players in NFL history they all have lousy stats. Bruce Smith for instance. Lousy stats. Joe Montana ... crappy stats.

 

Same with bad players. They all have terrific stats. JaMarcus Russell was in the top 5 of most statistical categories, wasn't he?

 

Stats only show what happened on the field. Great players have great stats. Bad players have bad stats. People who go on about stats do so because their eyes tell them something different. 99.9% of the time, that means their eyes are wrong. But try telling them that.

You're following the wrong sport,

Here You Go

[Shamrock]

And yet the Bills somehow finished 30th against the run? How about that stat?

 

So i can think of several scenarios...

Run left, run right. Run middle. So that's 2 outside to 1 inside, making DT more "appealing" statistically.

 

...or maybe Run left, run right. Run middle. Nah, don't worry about the middle, seen how far out that RDE is or how high up that LDE rushes his lane, Run left, run right.

 

I remember from Uni that statistically, everyone dies. Yep. No matter how many Vitamins, gym sessions and water from some pristine alpine untouched for 1000 years spring you drink... Hmmm, not a good prospect...

 

Oh and Run left, run right.

[Meathead]

DT Williams tops as playmaker

i wish this site had a neg function cuz i would neg you for not providing a link

 

never ceases to amaze me how inconsiderate people are not providing a link. i just went to bb.com and couldnt find the article. you had it in front of you and it would have taken three seconds to cut and paste, and yet you force other readers to spend who knows how many minutes to go searching. lazy lazy lazy and inconsiderate

[Meathead]

here tis btw

 

http://blogs.buffalobills.com/2010/05/11/d...s-as-playmaker/

[yungmack]

I know Williams has a high motor, but come on. Reading BB.com is like reading a George Orwell novel.

Of course he shills for the house, but this isn't a Brown opinion piece. He's passing on info from another, supposedly unbiased, pure numbers source.

[yungmack]

Or perhaps under "How Statistics, Valid Or Not, Are Often Disbelieved By People Whose Prejudices Aren't Backed Up By The Results."

[Thoner7]

I dont like stats but there was a reason that K WIlliams got voted into the PB last year by the coaches.

 

Not the fans, not the media, the NFL Head Coachs.

 

K. WIlliams was one of the best players on the team last year IMO. HIm and G. Wilson were great for our D, totally outplaying the bigger named guys on the roster.

 

I think the fans saying he is good but not great, and a role player, are completely off base. Yea he isnt the best at his position, but he was the best D lineman on out team last year, and one of the best in the league - evidenced by the people who really know voting him to the PB roster

[Big Turk]

Filing under "How Statistics can Completely Misrepresent Reality"

 

Williams is turning into a beast...exactly how isn't that representing reality?

[John from Riverside]

Some people are never happy

 

Last year:

 

"we should be playing a 3-4 defense....everybody else is"

"If our offense was preparing against a 3-4 every day they would be better prepared"

"We are just too darn small and get pushed around"

"We never get any pressure"

"This defense just sucks....I hate the cover two"

"We never blitz"

 

Now we go from that to

 

"We dont have any OLB's...we dont have the players......bla bla bla

 

Its going to take time folks....this is why we drafted and used free agency on the defensive side of the ball!

 

Our down linemen are NOW big enough

 

Because of this.....our LB's will now be kept clean and can go make plays

 

Maybe our offense does improve because of it?

 

We have a legit NT.....hell....we actually have two of them......Williams is a wreak havoc kinda guy on 1st and 2nd down

[yungmack]

Some people are never happy

 

Last year:

 

"we should be playing a 3-4 defense....everybody else is"

"If our offense was preparing against a 3-4 every day they would be better prepared"

"We are just too darn small and get pushed around"

"We never get any pressure"

"This defense just sucks....I hate the cover two"

"We never blitz"

 

Now we go from that to

 

"We dont have any OLB's...we dont have the players......bla bla bla

 

Its going to take time folks....this is why we drafted and used free agency on the defensive side of the ball!

 

Our down linemen are NOW big enough

 

Because of this.....our LB's will now be kept clean and can go make plays

 

Maybe our offense does improve because of it?

 

We have a legit NT.....hell....we actually have two of them......Williams is a wreak havoc kinda guy on 1st and 2nd down

Very good analysis.

[Mickey]

This is from Chris Brown at BB.com today.

 

 

DT Williams tops as playmaker

By Chris Brown - Posted May 11, 2010 – 8:00 am

 

Looks like Aaron Schobel isn't the only Bills player with league best playmaking ability at his position.

 

On Monday we showed how AdvancedNFLStats determined playmaking ability through new statistical models that measure WPA or positive win probability added and EPA or positive expected points added.

 

"+WPA" and "+EPA" add up the value of every sack, interception, pass defense, forced fumble or recovery, and every tackle or assist that results in a setback for the offense.

 

What these stats measure ultimately is playmaking ability.

 

For 2009 Aaron Schobel ranked number one among defensive ends in this statistical model. Kyle Williams was also the top ranked performer at his position, defensive tackle.

 

Williams not only had the highest WPA, but he highest EPA as well. His WPA of 1.99 was far and away the top mark as was his EPA of 54.1. Atlanta's Jordan Babineaux was second in both categories (1.67 and 46).

 

Williams was also number one in tackle factor (1.33), which goes far beyond measuring just the number of tackles accumulated by a player. Philadelphia's Mike Patterson was second (1.27).

 

Here's the top 15 list of DT playmaking ability and it should be noted that Bills DT Marcus Stroud ranked 10th, despite a season in which he played through three different nagging injuries.

 

95-K.Williams BUF

95-J.Babineaux ATL

90-D.Dockett ARZ

94-J.Smith SF

93-K.Williams MIN

90-J.Ratliff DAL

92-A.Haynesworth WAS

96-T.Knighton JAX

95-A.Adams CHI

99-M.Stroud BUF

75-V.Wilfork NE

92-R.Ayodele NO

94-P.Williams MIN

90-D.Muir IND

68-E.Foster IND

 

Lies, damn lies and statistics.

 

From what I can tell, we had an awesome running game, one of the best in the league, or so say the stats. Poz was the second best Mike in the league, or say the stats. Williams and Stroud were awesome, among the best of the best, or so say the stats.

 

And yet, we lost to Cleveland. I am going to have to go with our W-L record as the proverbial only stat that matters. I don't care what the other stats say, I watched this team and they were not a good running team and the defense, including the middle of it, struggled against the run. Their pass rush was pathetic beyond the ancient Schobel.

 

If you look long enough, you can find a stat that will show a team to be worse than it probably was or better than it probably was. Some guys rub people the wrong way so people look hard for proof that he sux and other guys are fan favorites and in that case people look hard for proof that guy is a gem.